How Would Hitler Have Handled A Non-Fascist, Non-Communist, Republican Spain In World War II ?

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

During World War II, Germany was interested in the Iberian peninsula (Spain and Portugal) for three main reasons: (1) Taking Gibraltar to close the Mediterranean Sea to the British; (2) Having Iberia as a reliable source of wolfram ore(tungsten) which was vital to upgrading military equipment; and (3) Using Spain’s and Portugal’s Atlantic islands as forward bases to support Germany’s U-boat war against Britain’s shipping.

In OTL, considering how brusquely Hitler treated a very friendly, Fascist Spain --- a Spain which bent over backwards to appease and aid Nazi Germany --- the Spanish still often actually feared a German invasion. How much more so would a non-Fascist, non-Communist, Republican Spain have been exposed to an ATL partial or full German invasion ? All the “advantages” that a Fascist Spain would have, would be non-existent for a Republican Spain.

(In the poll above, I interpret “partial invasion” as meaning Germany just makes a direct bee-line across Spanish territory to take Gibraltar, either with or without Spain’s permission and assent.)

Before we look at the position of a Republican Spain vis-à-vis Nazi Germany, consider how OTL Fascist Spain dealt with an overwhelmingly powerful Germany right at its border.

During OTL World War II, Germany, though wanting to achieve the 3 goals mentioned in the first paragraph, did not invade Fascist Spain for several reasons. The Spanish dictator Franco was a fellow Fascist who had been helped to power by both Hitler and Mussolini during the Spanish Civil War and he often expressed his gratitude. He tilted Spain’s neutrality in Germany’s favor as far as he possibly could. He frequently pledged to enter the war as Germany’s ally if Germany would provide a war-ravaged and starving Spain with foodstuffs, arms and African territory.

For months, even before France’s fall, Franco’s Spain was significantly helping the Germans. Jerrold M. Packard’s book, “Neither Friend Nor Foe: The European Neutrals In World War II” clearly shows how much…

“Franco further saw to it that the German embassy in Madrid was kept updated on information from diplomatic reports, and he permitted German propaganda to almost totally override Allied propaganda in the fascist-dominated Spanish press. Perhaps most dangerous from the Allied standpoint was the Spanish concession that allowed Iberia Airlines to use German pilots, even on routes from which Allied shipping could be observed.

Another important accommodation Franco allowed Germany was the reprovisioning and refueling of its submarines in Spanish ports, requiring only that the Reich do so in secret so the British wouldn’t launch reprisals against Spain. Among the ports thus used were Vigo, on the Atlantic, Las Palmas in the Canary Islands, and Cartagena on the Mediterranean coastline, the latter base supplied with a stock of U-boat spare parts.

On January 3, 1940, the first submarine to make use of the new gift was the U-25, when it floated into Cádiz harbor to tie up alongside the German freighter ‘Thalia’. After four hours of taking supplies off the merchant ship, the U-25 glided back out to sea, doubtless grateful for Spain’s favor. Berlin made sure its U-boat captains exempted Spanish carriers from its otherwise nearly indiscriminate sinking of shipping to Allied ports.”

And, after the fall of France in June 1940, Franco’s Spain aided the Axis powers even more than ever…

“Even before France collapsed in June, Franco had allowed Germany---and to a lesser and less important degree, Italy--- important tactical privileges on Spanish soil and in Spanish anchorages, Principal among these was free access to the country’s ports for the safe harboring, reprovisioning, and rest for the personnel of the Kriegsmarine, the branch of the Wehrmacht then constituting the gravest danger to Britain.

Ports including Vigo, Santander, and Cádiz would throughout the war remain open to German surface and undersea naval forces. The Canary Island refueling and resupplying bases used by the Germans with Franco’s permission represented a vital refueling point for the critically important U-boat fleet until December 1941, when Germany’s ‘milch cow’ method of resupplying submarines at sea was initiated.

Spanish assistance to the Reich went considerably beyond providing Germany with safe harbors. Spain’s factories produced vast quantities of matériel that helped Germany keep its war machine in tune. Factories in Barcelona, Seville, and Valencia turned out items destined for the Reich ranging from cartridges to uniforms to submarine engines. Furthermore, as a result of an agreement signed in April 1941 Spaniards were allowed to travel to Germany to work in industry.”

Yet, despite all this Spanish aid to Germany, Hitler still prepared Operation Felix without first consulting Spain…

”So on November 12, 1940, Hitler issued his Directive 18. Code-named Operation Felix, the project dealt with the capture of Gibraltar and the subsequent closing of the fourteen-mile-wide strait, preferably with --- but otherwise without --- Spanish cooperation, Directive 18 set January 10, 1941, as the approximate date for a German entry from occupied France into Spain.”

In OTL Operation Felix was to be happening after Mussolini’s Italy’s botched invasion of Greece in October 1940 and before any German invasion of Yugoslavia, Greece and Soviet Russia in 1941.

Now to this ATL where Nazi Germany would be dealing with a Non-Fascist, Non-Communist, Republican Spain during World War II. In this scenario, the Spanish Republicans would have defeated, early in the Spanish Civil War probably by 1937, the Franco Fascists (the Nationalists) who were militarily backed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. The Republicans would have won without any aid from Communist Russia. I am also assuming that Spain is not as physically devastated nor as hunger-stricken as in OTL. This might have made Spain a more tempting target to the Germans to occupy.

During OTL, both Britain and France adopted non-interference in the Spanish Civil War, refusing to supply or sell military aid to the legitimate Spanish Republic. A.J.P. Taylor in his book “Origins Of The Second World War” pages 121 – 122, showed how this caused Republican Spain to fall to the Franco Fascists backed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy..

”British and French policy, or lack of it, not the policy of Hitler and Mussolini, decided the outcome of the Spanish Civil War. The republic had greater resources, greater popular backing. It could win if it received the correct treatment to which it was entitled by international law: foreign arms for the legitimate government, none for the rebels. It could even win if both sides received foreign aid, or if both were denied it. The rebels had a chance only if they received foreign aid, while the republic received none or very little; and this extraordinary arrangement was provided, though not deliberately, by London and Paris.”

This makes it doubful, in case of a ATL victory by Republican Spain over the Franco Fascists, that the Spanish would have actively allied themselves with Britain and France against Germany when World War II started. Most probably Republican Spain would have been neutral much as Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium had been before the war engulfed those countries.

In OTL, the Largo Caballero government was in power from September 1936 until May 1937 in the Spanish Republic. Whether this government would still be in charge at the time of the Fall of France in June 1940 is unknowable. But what is knowable is that, according to the first paragraph in the “Background” section of Wikipedia’s article on Operation Felix , the Largo Caballero government had reached out to Nazi Germany, sometime in 1936 or 1937 with an offer…

“Reminiscing about the Spanish Civil War, Republican minister Federica Montseny wrote to historian Burnett Bolloten in 1950 that the government had planned to offer the Canary or the Balearic Islands to Germany in exchange of its neutrality. However, the Largo Caballero government could not provide written proof of its proposal and the Germans did continue to support the Nationalists.”

This would show that the Spanish Republic was at least open to making a deal of some sort with Germany in the 1930s and this also .suggests that they could be pressured, as other European neutrals were pressured at the time, into making some concessions. I don’t think they would cooperate with Germany as extensively as OTL Franco Spain did, but whether this would be enough to save ATL Republican Spain from a partial or full German invasion, I don’t know.

I have thought about this situation for a while now and have wondered what others thought might happen in this ATL situation. Before posting, I searched on our website here and did not see this particular issue explicitly addressed. I am sorry if I overlooked a previous thread that does deal with it.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

My bad, the poll did not show up in the thread and I do not know how to edit it in. These were the poll questions that should have been in a poll.
How Would Hitler Have Handled A Non-Fascist, Non-Communist, Republican Spain In World War II ?

--- Germany Partially Invades Republican Spain To Get Gibraltar Shortly After The Fall of France

--- Germany Fully Invades Republican Spain To Get Gibraltar Shortly After The Fall of France

----Germany Partially Invades Republican Spain To Get Gibraltar Sometime Before Attacking Soviet Russia

--- Germany Fully Invades Republican Spain To Get Gibraltar Sometime Before Attacking Soviet Russia

----Germany Never Invades Republican Spain During World War II
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My personal choice is : ----Germany Partially Invades Republican Spain To Get Gibraltar Shortly After The Fall of France.

 

[thaddeus]

the collaboration to support the Nationalist coup drew Germany and Italy closer together, there would likely be a neutral Italy, and most likely a neutral Spain. Nazi Germany would have little to no interest in the Med, or seizing Gibraltar.

(just IMO) it is more likely to have an earlier German-Soviet deal, maybe not a broad pact like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but a renewal of economic ties, that was certainly needed by both sides as pariah states. the USSR used the windfall of Spanish gold reserves to make some rudimentary integration back into the world trade and banking system, absent that they would be in pretty bad straits.

 

[CHKeeley]

What does a partial invasion look like? To my mind, Republican Spain would get Allied support the minute German troops violate their sovereignty. Republican Spain would pretty much have to be invaded - if it isn’t then it quickly becomes an excellent staging ground for Allied troops to advance into France later in the war. In the Nazi worldview, Spain would be a bastion of Judeo-Bolshevism. I’m sure the lurid stories of red terror in northern Spain after Franco is defeated will further inflame German opinion decisively against a surviving Spanish Republic.

I always have thought that a Republican victory is an interesting way to ensure a less effective Barbarossa. The timetable disruption caused by the invasion and the garrison required due to Spain’s rugged terrain (great for partisans) and very long coastline means that forces allocated to Barbarossa will be significantly disrupted. Assuming other German operations proceed along the same timetables, then we are looking at an August ’41 launch for Barbarossa or postponement until the following summer. Both are pretty disastrous. Giving the Red Army another year to prepare means they are in a much stronger position and likely far more secure on the Molotov Line than they were IOTL. An August, 41 Barbarossa means the German advance peters out likely along the old Stalin Line or perhaps up to the Dneipr in Ukraine. Also a very bad situation for the Wehrmacht.

 

[Genkou]

He did handle a non-fascist state in Spain. Franco's regime was a military junta, that generally isolated the falangists (fascists) post-civil war and then went on to distance them in the Blue Division during the German-Soviet War. This is similar to Portugal, another Iberian authoritarian state that was not an Axis member, but was pro-Allies.

So, if Spain was neither Communist, Fascist, Authoritarian variety, but was another (conservative?) liberal democracy similar to France or Britain, I would expect it to be treated similarlly to Switzerland or Sweden.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

the collaboration to support the Nationalist coup drew Germany and Italy closer together, there would likely be a neutral Italy, and most likely a neutral Spain. Nazi Germany would have little to no interest in the Med, or seizing Gibraltar.

This is an interesting point that perhaps Germany and Italy would not have become allies had Republican Spain not emerged the winner in the Civil War. Lots of butterflies to consider. A.J.P. Taylor in his book “Origins Of The Second World War” page 124 footnote, looked at some possible butterflies/

“Ingenious spectulators have even argued that Hitler would have gone straight on to invade Spain after his conquest of France if the Republic had won and that therefore Franco’s victory brought gain to the Allies.

These “Ifs” of history are unrewarding. One might as well argue that a Republican victory would so have shaken Fascism that there would have been no war.

Hitler stopped at the Spanish border partly from lack of resources, partly because he was not interested in the western Mediterranean. The character of the Spanish régime did not much affect him.”

Santo Nombre, who is writing a timeline on Spain during this time period, let me know (in my Test thread after posting this thread--btw., now I know how to do a poll in a thread) about three threads which my search on the Alternate website did not turn up. Each thread is very interesting and detailed and I wish I had known about them before beginning this thread :

(1) "WI The Second Spanish Republic Won The Spanish Civil War" begun by 18AlexGray
(2) "A Swift Republican Victory In The Spanish Civil War" begun by Vinization
(3) "A Constitution For Anarchist Spain" begun by durante.

Knowing about these threads would have answered a lot of my questions.

 

[jenalysis]

Could the Nazis have taken Spain after France, or would Hitler have suffered the same ulcer as Napoleon?

Spain might not be suited well to Blitzkrieg warfare.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

What does a partial invasion look like? To my mind, Republican Spain would get Allied support the minute German troops violate their sovereignty. Republican Spain would pretty much have to be invaded - if it isn’t then it quickly becomes an excellent staging ground for Allied troops to advance into France later in the war.

Thank you for a perceptive post Ulyanovsk. You make several excellent points.

In my first post, I interpreted “partial invasion” as meaning Germany just makes a direct bee-line across Spanish territory to take Gibraltar, either with or without Spain’s permission and assent. British help, not very strong at this time, and perhaps a weak Portugal, would be all that could help lend any help to an invaded Republican Spain.

In the Nazi worldview, Spain would be a bastion of Judeo-Bolshevism. I’m sure the lurid stories of red terror in northern Spain after Franco is defeated will further inflame German opinion decisively against a surviving Spanish Republic.

This is so very true but remember in this ATL Republican Spain wins the Civil War without Soviet Russia’s aid and is not Communist in any way.

Jerrold M. Packard’s book, “Neither Friend Nor Foe: The European Neutrals In World War II”, pages 206 – 207 describes how an assault on Gibraltar was to have worked..

“Fully conceived, Felix envisioned the clearing of British influence from the entire western Mediterranean. That included making sure the Atlantic islands didn’t become a British substitute for Gibraltar. The plan assigned the taking of the Rock primarily to a German assault force, the strait to then be blocked with the assistance of German land, naval, and air units; the target date for this part of Felix was February 1, or shortly after. The Germans would concentrate some 200 guns on the Rock. Luftwaffe dive-bombers would join in to support the infantry assault onto the isthmus from the Spanish town of La Línea, ending bt taking the crown colony itself. Three days were allocated for ground operations, to be carried out by the same experienced and immensely skilled troops who had shocked the world when against long odds they overpowered Belgium’s “impregnable” Fort Eben Emael the prior May. Plans called for the Spanish, with German help, to keep any invader out of the Canaries; Portugal’s Cape Verde Islands were to be “protected” exclusively by German units. Following the assault force’s attack on Gibraltar, two more German divisions --- one armored, one motorized -- would cross into Morocco and capture its Atlantic coast. A further three Wehrmacht divisions would enter Spain and drive toward Portugal, where they would be used to stave off the expected British attempt to gain an Iberian toehold through that country. With both Morocco and Gibraltar under Axis control, the strait would be sealed tight. When Britain collapsed, the Rock would be turned over to the Spanish government.”

I always have thought that a Republican victory is an interesting way to ensure a less effective Barbarossa. The timetable disruption caused by the invasion and the garrison required due to Spain’s rugged terrain (great for partisans) and very long coastline means that forces allocated to Barbarossa will be significantly disrupted. Assuming other German operations proceed along the same timetables, then we are looking at an August ’41 launch for Barbarossa or postponement until the following summer. Both are pretty disastrous. Giving the Red Army another year to prepare means they are in a much stronger position and likely far more secure on the Molotov Line than they were IOTL. An August, 41 Barbarossa means the German advance peters out likely along the old Stalin Line or perhaps up to the Dneipr in Ukraine. Also a very bad situation for the Wehrmacht.

We’ll never know how a German invasion of Spain would have played out but the terrain and temperament of the Spanish people seems similar to that of the Yugoslavs and the Greeks. Both of those nations were, initially, swiftly conquered by the Germans and the island of Crete, about 99 miles south of the Greek mainland, was taken in an air-borne assault.

In this ATL, it is not written in stone that Germany would also invade Yugoslavia and Greece which lasted until OTL May 1941. Germany could possibly achieve its limited or minimal Gibraltar/Spain goals in this ATL earlier than its OTL goals in Yugoslavia and Greece by a matter of months and several months before an August 1941 Barbarossa.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

So, if Spain was neither Communist, Fascist, Authoritarian variety, but was another (conservative?) liberal democracy similar to France or Britain, I would expect it to be treated similarlly to Switzerland or Sweden.

I agree with you, Genkou. It would be no doubt in a threatening manner with always the possibility of an invasion like their neighbors had suffered. Sweden and Switzerland were certainly heavily pressured and were totally surrounded by German controlled territory and allies. Spain was not surrounded like those countries but there is no doubt that ATL Republican Spain could be pressured like OTL Fascist Spain was.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

Could the Nazis have taken Spain after France, or would Hitler have suffered the same ulcer as Napoleon?

Spain might not be suited well to Blitzkrieg warfare.

Hearing about Hitler’s plans for Gibraltar, even the very enthusiastic pro-Nazi Spanish Foreign Minister Serrano Suñer tried to talk Hitler out of this plan and alluded to exactly the very reasons you mention, jenalysis.

“Serrano Suñer begged the Führer to understand the hardships the Spanish people had so recently suffered and his government’s extreme reluctance to ask them to repeat such suffering.....He added that Spain would resist any invasion the same way it had resisted Napoleon. By inference he meant “British“ invasion, but the unspoken threat --- one Hitler evidently understood --- was that any foreigners entering Spanish territory unbidden would be opposed.“

 

[Santo Nombre]

The key to clarify the possible actions of Germany is to stablish what happened on Europe between 1937 (after the republican victory) and 1940 (the fall of France).

Supposing that the POD is just a worst rebel performing so the "national" side lose their momentum by november '36 and starts loosing important cities (mainly Mallorca, so the italians never settle there; and Zaragoza, Teruel, Tudela and Vitoria, so the republican industrial north is connected with the rest of the republican territory)... I can imagine Italy and Germany stopping their support to the rebels.
The resulting Republic may not be communist, but will be seen as a REDpublic anyway because of the importance of the CNT and the sindicalist side of the PSOE. Even if following the (probable) elections of mid-1937 a "Worker's Front" (Caballeristas+POUM+PSidicalista supported by CNT and UGT affiliateds) doesn't win, it will represent a necessary partner in order to keep Spain functioning.

This REDpublic will be used by Germany and Italy as propaganda against Britain and France, saying that they are tolerating or even promoting communism. The same that the rightist groups will do inside Britain and France. The failure of the right-wing-spanish coup may provoque a closer collaboration of Germany and Italy so we can have a 1938 Pact of Steel.

From here we can imagine many western countries distancing themselfs from Spain and worrying about a new RED country in Europe. Not second Blum governement in France. An increased appeasement policy its also possible and in an alter-Munich agreement maybe Italy claim the recognition of their rule over Ethiopia and permission to "protectorate" Albania, because the western countries want to befriend Italy and appart it from Germany.
But the earlier Pact of Steel have improved the coordination of the two nations and the Mediterranean Strategy its now seen as more interesting by both countries, so they try to divide Europe among them: the Balkans south of the Danube for Italy and north for Germany in addition to the Black Sea coast. France and the Castilla part of Spain for Germany, the Aragon part of Spain and the Rif protectorate for Italy, Russia and Turkey for Germany and the rest of the Mediterranean for Italy. That may seem to us impossible to conquer and hold, but remember that Benny and Adolph are absolut megalomaniacs. (Also, if they help each other is because they think they will overcome the other at the end of the war). An italo-german company builds roads and a bigger port in Bengasi and Tobruk, officialy looking for petroleum, but really preparing for an attack on Egypt.

So, when WWII starts Germany attacks Poland, then Denmark and Norway.
Meanwhile Italy claims its neutrality.
When the Battle of France starts (maybe with a worst ending at Dunkerque for the Allies) Italy joins declaring war just to Britain and attacks both Egypt and Malta.
Then France falls and Italy conquer the Balearic and while attacking the mediterranean coast of Spain tries to occupy the Rif.
Right now Spain is in war just against Italy and maybe they don't join the Allies. Depending on how everything goes ITTL Spain can cede the Balearics and Morocco and be submissive to Italy.
With the Brits fighting on the Rif and Egypt and so without good acces to the Mediterranean Sea, Germany can use the Pyrenees as a Wall to concentrate on the east... Barbarrossa is coming.

Just an idea... 😜

 

[CHKeeley]

I think something important to keep in mind in this discussion is that Spain can very well be liberal, while still being perceived and remembered as... somewhat red. Even if the Republic doesn't receive Soviet aid*, it will necessarily have to rely upon significant support from various left groups and organizations. Much will be made by the Nationalists of red terror and godless republicanism/anarchism as OTL. In the court of international opinion, Nazism and Fascism will see in Spain a mirror of their own societies before fascism. If the Nationalists lose, Hitler will trumpet it as a victory for global Jewry even if the Spanish Republic remains liberal. Without significant butterflies, this victorious Republic would likely have a strong leftist influence in its ministries and parliament. My point largely is that we cannot treat this as if it was Sweden or Switzerland because it isn't. The Germans will see this Republic as a bastion of Bolshevism and a potential ally for the Brits and French even if it is ruled by a liberal party. The Republic, conditioned by the extremities of the Civil War, will treat the advance of fascism with hostility. Unless the Republic allows itself to be occupied, I'm seeing a collision course here.

*NOTE: If we are preventing Soviet aid, the war will need a PoD that weakens the Nationalists because Soviet aid was crucial in the opening stages of the war for the Republicans. Especially for the defense of Madrid in the first few months IIRC. Perhaps the Moroccan troops cannot get across the Straits?

 

[thaddeus]

the collaboration to support the Nationalist coup drew Germany and Italy closer together, there would likely be a neutral Italy, and most likely a neutral Spain. Nazi Germany would have little to no interest in the Med, or seizing Gibraltar.

(just IMO) it is more likely to have an earlier German-Soviet deal, maybe not a broad pact like the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but a renewal of economic ties, that was certainly needed by both sides as pariah states. the USSR used the windfall of Spanish gold reserves to make some rudimentary integration back into the world trade and banking system, absent that they would be in pretty bad straits.

The key to clarify the possible actions of Germany is to stablish what happened on Europe between 1937 (after the republican victory) and 1940 (the fall of France).

Supposing that the POD is just a worst rebel performing so the "national" side lose their momentum by november '36 ... I can imagine Italy and Germany stopping their support to the rebels.
The resulting Republic may not be communist, but will be seen as a REDpublic anyway

This REDpublic will be used by Germany and Italy as propaganda against Britain and France, saying that they are tolerating or even promoting communism. The same that the rightist groups will do inside Britain and France. The failure of the right-wing-spanish coup may provoque a closer collaboration of Germany and Italy so we can have a 1938 Pact of Steel.

From here we can imagine many western countries distancing themselfs from Spain and worrying about a new RED country in Europe. An increased appeasement policy its also possible and in an alter-Munich agreement maybe Italy claim the recognition of their rule over Ethiopia and permission to "protectorate" Albania, because the western countries want to befriend Italy and appart it from Germany.
But the earlier Pact of Steel have improved the coordination of the two nations and the Mediterranean Strategy its now seen as more interesting by both countries, so they try to divide Europe among them: the Balkans south of the Danube for Italy and north for Germany in addition to the Black Sea coast.

seems counterintuitive that a failed coup would draw Germany and Italy closer, especially as the Nazi regime had little interest in the Med to begin with? can imagine it would reinforce some German preconceptions regarding Italy's military prowess and reliability?