How would different Repulican Nominees do against Obama?
- Thread starter Gorrister
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Not just those two candidates,I'm talking all GOP challengers, and while some of it may be ASB,like Cain or Huntsman getting the nomination,I'm more concerned about how they might do.
The problem with the 2012 nomination was that it was picking the best of a bad situation, which regardless was going to be a bad situation. Or even if Romney could have been a legitimately good candidate without being graded on a curve, he still had to contend with what his party has become.
The Republican base, being lead by the ideological forces it is currently, which is Tea party or Tea party sympathetic, will only support candidates which fit their ideological purity test. Those same candidates will not win over most voters outside of established Republicans because of those same ideological views they do have or have to pretend to have for the primaries. It's surprising Romney got as far as he did, because it really was all on steam and not the substance; he got votes because he was not Obama, and not for himself because he really was only moderately supported or really disliked by the people voting for him.
The Republican base, being lead by the ideological forces it is currently, which is Tea party or Tea party sympathetic, will only support candidates which fit their ideological purity test. Those same candidates will not win over most voters outside of established Republicans because of those same ideological views they do have or have to pretend to have for the primaries. It's surprising Romney got as far as he did, because it really was all on steam and not the substance; he got votes because he was not Obama, and not for himself because he really was only moderately supported or really disliked by the people voting for him.
I'm not concerned about Cain. He was ridiculous. Huntsman, on the other hand, I think could have presented a credible threat. I could have been persuaded to vote for him. Maybe not against Obama, but I would have considered it alot more seriously than I considered voting for Romney.
The Republicans would not have allowed Huntsman to survive the primaries, exactly how they didn't as it was.
I absolutely agree with you. I was thinking of how he'd do against Obama, though. That assumed he made it through the primaries.
But still, you're right.
To be honest you needed Super Storm Sandy to not happen when it did (that was an easy three point swing to the President IMHO), a speculative gas bubble like that hit in 2008 that slows the economy and one of the A list of the GOP running who can reach out to Hispanics for a GOP victory that year.
Huntsman isn't ASB--he just wasn't willing to use his vast personal/family money to buy the nomination through advertising, astroturfing, etc.
(My college had a CS Lewis Society that I dig some digging and ultimately found was sponsored by a nationwide conservative group. Hey, if they're the ones buying the Chick-fil-A.)
As a Huntsman supporter, I wish he'd given it a try. At the very least people would have heard of him.
Chris Christie is the only GOP politician who would have done better than Romney but if Romney had run towards the center and not acted like the rich white guy running for President, he could have made the race close.
A 10 point win is both an electoral and popular vote landslide. Hillary Clinton vs the GOP field in 2016 might be such a landslide.
A 10 point win is both an electoral and popular vote landslide. Hillary Clinton vs the GOP field in 2016 might be such a landslide.
pretty much this in my opinion.
Any candidate that was picked was going to have to harden their policies to appeal to the tea party and effectively alienate everyone else.
Honestly I'd even go so far as to say that the GOP was doomed before they even started.
The tea party might have helped them grab some quick short term victories in 2010, but beyond that they did nothing but hamper the party's ability to win beyond local and some state wide elections and even then the GOP had to rely on gerrymandering in some cases.
My feeling from the very beginning before the GOP ran anyone was that they were going to lose hands down, the only question was how badly.
IMO, Huntsman is a traditional Republican candidate circa 1952-1996, by which I define as pragmatic. Sound a business and engaged in active, pragmatic foreign affairs. If Republican attitudes are what they were in 1988, he is a legit primary candidate and might win. And he has an excellent shot of winning the general election. But, the R's have become the party of ideology rather than pragmatism. So, no Huntsman.
Even if he didn't win, he certainly could have done better than OTL and that could have had an impact on who ultimately faces Obama.
Is there a credible poll that shows this Sandy added 3 points? And dont quote Rassmussen. I am pretty sure that wonder boy Nate Silver showed no such thing.
On Huntsman, I agree with the consensus that he couldn't win the primaries even if he had somehow outspent everyone.
But since the OP wanted to know how everyone would do, I would say Huntsman is the hardest to call. It would be no surprise if the Tea Party fielded a protest contest if Huntsman's the GOP nominee. At that point we're talking legitimate political schism and a probable Democratic landslide.
But if the Tea Party can somehow be convinced to not rebel, we see a pretty interesting race. Huntsman pulls a lot of purple states his way, but with hardcore conservatives staying home Obama can pick up some surprising wins in the south and the midwest.
But since the OP wanted to know how everyone would do, I would say Huntsman is the hardest to call. It would be no surprise if the Tea Party fielded a protest contest if Huntsman's the GOP nominee. At that point we're talking legitimate political schism and a probable Democratic landslide.
But if the Tea Party can somehow be convinced to not rebel, we see a pretty interesting race. Huntsman pulls a lot of purple states his way, but with hardcore conservatives staying home Obama can pick up some surprising wins in the south and the midwest.