How would China respond to a major Islamist terror attack?

I don't know if this goes here or in political chat because it's so recent. If so, a moderator may move it. We all know that Xinjiang was once predominantly inhabited by Uyghurs, who are Muslims, but over the course of time Han Chinese settlers came to dominate. That sparked resistance from the Uyghurs that sometimes led to violence.

Western countries like the United States, Belgium, France, Germany and Spain got to deal with terrorist attacks from ISIS operatives and/or sympathizers of that organization. In Russia, there has been significant Chechen resistance/terrorism ever since the end of the fall of the USSR and some Chechens have joined ISIS.

China has not seen a major Islamist terrorist attack so far (correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall any). Suppos ISIS manages to cultivate Uyghur resentment toward Han Chinese domination of their ancestral home enough to form multiple terrorist cells. What if they carried out a terrorist attack similar to the November 2015 Paris attacks or the 2016 Brussels bombings somewhere between 2015 and 2017? How would China respond to a terrorist attack connected to ISIS?
 
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Ian_W

Banned
China has not seen a major Islamist terrorist attack so far (correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall any). Suppos ISIS manages to cultivate Uyghur resentment toward Han Chinese domination of their ancestral home enough to form multiple terrorist cells. What if they carried out a terrorist attack similar to the November 2015 Paris attacks or the 2016 Brussels bombings somewhere between 2015 and 2017? How would China respond to a terrorist attack connected to ISIS?

Well, there was at least one.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/25/islamist-china-tiananmen-beijing-attack

Generally, their response is the same way the Western world did - stepped up secret police work, and more help to those fighting IS.

Note that there have been multiple pro-IS Uyghur cells, but these were mostly exported into the Syrian war via the Turkmenistan Islamic Party (there's weird stuff involving genuine Turkish travel documents).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rdogan-visit-to-beijing-idUSKCN0Q10PM20150727
 
China has not seen a major Islamist terrorist attack so far (correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall any).

I guess it depends on how you define major, and also the extent to which anti-Han and anti-government violence by Uighurs is motivated by "Islamism" (it's obviously in the PRC's interest to say it is). But these seem to be significant incidents, anyway:

(1) "On the morning of 22 May 2014, two sport utility vehicles (SUVs) carrying five assailants were driven into a busy street market in Ürümqi, the capital of China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Up to a dozen explosives were thrown at shoppers from the windows of the SUVs. The SUVs crashed into shoppers then collided with each other and exploded. 43 people were killed, including 4 of the assailants, and more than 90 wounded,[1] making this the deadliest attack of the Xinjiang conflict.[2][3][4][5]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2014_Ürümqi_attack

(2) "At least 50 reported to have died in attack on coalmine in Xinjiang in September [2015]" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...september-attack-as-china-celebrates-xinjiang

"Radio Free Asia said the number of people killed in the 18 September attack at the Sogan colliery in Aksu had reached 50, with most casualties members of the Han Chinese majority. Police blamed knife-wielding separatists.

"When police officers arrived on the scene, attackers “rammed their vehicles using trucks loaded down with coal”, the report said, citing its own sources.

"“Nearly all the workers who were not on shift at the time were killed or injured,” police officer Ekber Hashim told the station. “Some workers were sleeping while others were preparing to work when the attackers raided the building after killing the security guards.”

"Reuters was unable to reach officials for comment. Such incidents are frequently reported in overseas media but not confirmed by the Chinese government until days later, if ever.

"In June, Radio Free Asia said at least 18 people died when ethnic Uighurs attacked police with knives and bombs at a traffic checkpoint in the old Silk Road city of Kashgar.

"The government has never confirmed that incident, though diplomats have told Reuters they believe a serious attack did take place..."

(3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Kashgar_attacks
"The 2011 Kashgar attacks were a series of knife and bomb attacks in Kashgar, Xinjiang, China on July 30 and 31, 2011. On July 30, two Uyghur men hijacked a truck, killed its driver, and drove into a crowd of pedestrians. They got out of the truck and stabbed six people to death and injured 27 others. One of the attackers was killed by the crowd; the other was brought into custody. On July 31, a chain of two explosions started a fire at a downtown restaurant. A group of armed Uyghur men killed two people inside of the restaurant and four people outside, injuring 15 other people. Police shot five suspects dead, detained four, and killed two others who initially escaped arrest.

"The government says the attackers confessed to Jihadist motives and membership in the terrorist group East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), while an overseas pro-Uyghur independence group claims the attackers were frustrated by a lack of options for nonviolent anti-government protest. Businesses temporarily closed down and riot police patrolled the city until August 4. ETIM acknowledged responsibility for the attack on September 8, as well as for the attack in Hotan earlier that same July. Six men were given prison or death sentences for their involvement in both attacks later in September."

(4) "The 2011 Hotan attack was a bomb-and-knife attack that occurred in Hotan, Xinjiang, China on July 18, 2011. According to witnesses, the assailants were a group of 18 young Uyghur men who opposed the local government's campaign against the burqa, which had grown popular among older Hotan women in 2009 but were also used in a series of violent crimes. The men occupied a police station on Nuerbage Street at noon, killing two security guards with knives and bombs and taking eight hostages. The attackers then yelled religious slogans, including ones associated with Jihadism, as they replaced the Chinese flag on top of a police station with another flag, the identity of which is disputed.

"After a firefight with police around 1:30 p.m., 14 of the attackers were killed, and four were captured. Six of the hostages were rescued alive, while two were killed in the attack. Local and national governments said the attack was organized terrorism motivated by religious extremism, and found that two of the attackers have links to the militant East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). A team from China's counter-terrorism office was sent to Hotan to investigate the attack. ETIM acknowledged responsibility for the attack on September 8, as well as for the attacks in Kashgar later that same July. Six men were handed prison or death sentences for their involvement in both attacks later in September. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Hotan_attack

(5) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Kashgar_attack " occurred on the morning of 4 August 2008 in the city of Kashgar in the Western Chinese province of Xinjiang. According to Chinese government sources, it was a terrorist attack perpetrated by two men with suspected ties to the Uyghur separatist movement. The men reportedly drove a truck into a group of approximately 70 jogging police officers, and proceeded to attack them with grenades and machetes, resulting in the death of sixteen officers. Foreign tourists who witnessed the scene provided a divergent account of events, saying that the attackers appeared to be machete-wielding paramilitary officers.[1]"
 
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Well, there was at least one.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/25/islamist-china-tiananmen-beijing-attack

Generally, their response is the same way the Western world did - stepped up secret police work, and more help to those fighting IS.

Note that there have been multiple pro-IS Uyghur cells, but these were mostly exported into the Syrian war via the Turkmenistan Islamic Party (there's weird stuff involving genuine Turkish travel documents).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rdogan-visit-to-beijing-idUSKCN0Q10PM20150727

Could a Paris or Brussels type attack anger the Chinese to the point of direct military assistance to the Syrian government, like Russia and Iran are already doing?
 
Could a Paris or Brussels type attack anger the Chinese to the point of direct military assistance to the Syrian government, like Russia and Iran are already doing?

They seem to underplay major terrorist incidents at least domestically within the media. I was in China during the 2013 attack and the news had basically nothing on the TV, just a brief mention of the incident with weird claims that the people involved had a car full of anti-state propaganda (like why would you have that as a terrorist?). It was like a single one minute article.

Granted it was a smaller scale thing, a lot of people were hurt and the Chinese government clamped down on local and international media immediately (ie. detaining a BBC news crew who filmed the response). They want to control the narrative and they seem pretty damn good at censoring the media. Terrorism shows disunity and unhappiness with the status quo and they will actively shut that stuff down because they don't want people to see it. They don't want to show the Uighur's being upset because it seemingly de-legitimizes the suzerainty of the Communist government by showing certain people aren't happy.

They would probably step up internal security and secret police activity significantly but that would be behind closed doors.
 
Internal terrorism is typically handled a lot differently than external terrorism, especially by a regime like this. The terrorist incidents mentioned in here are internal. If you had a 9/11 analogue with Saudi, Filipino, or Malaysian terrorists crashing planes into the Forbidden City or the Great Wall...that would result in a very different reaction, especially be the case if they came from a foreign airport.
 
Internal terrorism is typically handled a lot differently than external terrorism, especially by a regime like this. The terrorist incidents mentioned in here are internal. If you had a 9/11 analogue with Saudi, Filipino, or Malaysian terrorists crashing planes into the Forbidden City or the Great Wall...that would result in a very different reaction, especially be the case if they came from a foreign airport.

I'm wondering if a 9/11 analogue with foreign rather than domestic terrorists could enrage the Chinese leadership enough to respond militarily. Chinese forces operating in Syria and even Iraq against ISIS would be interesting...
 

Ian_W

Banned
I'm wondering if a 9/11 analogue with foreign rather than domestic terrorists could enrage the Chinese leadership enough to respond militarily. Chinese forces operating in Syria and even Iraq against ISIS would be interesting...

Nahh, they'd simply provide weapons to the Assad regime and/or Iraqi government.

Note CNPC are the last known lease holder for the oil and gas in Eastern Syria, although that is in SDF-controlled territory.
 

chankljp

Donor
Could a Paris or Brussels type attack anger the Chinese to the point of direct military assistance to the Syrian government, like Russia and Iran are already doing?

Why would they? For the CCP, their goal is to ensure 和谐 (rive crab harmony) in society at all cost in order to hold onto power. Responding to a terrorist attack with a high profile overseas military action will only bring more attention to the government's seeming inability to protect it's citizens, not to mention encourage copy-cat attacks from other separatist groups.

To provoke the Chinese government into even considering military action, you will need something on par with a 9/11 attack that CANNOT be covered up or downplayed. But that is why the law enforcement in major cities (especially in Beijing) can get so excessively paranoid during important events such as the when the National Congress or the Olympics were being held, doing stuff like requiring literally EVERYONE riding the Beijing subway to go though an airport style security check before being allowed into the station, or clearing out the basements of entire neighbourhoods to prevent anyone from housing undocumented people (mostly migrant workers) in the city that can cause trouble.
 
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