Konrad Sartorius
Banned
Lets presume as a POD a hardliner like Romanov gets elected instead of Gorbachev, and the USSR/USA are still engaged in the Cold War, how does Chavez influence events in Latin America?
He doesn't. The United states cold war policies in Latin America mean that he is deposed or assassinated when or before he comes to power. The CIA may be lambasted for being a bunch of clowns, and their Latin America policy was at times cartoonish, but they were good at one thing and that was taking out anti American regimes. They were also good at supporting those who mouthed the right words. Chavez almost fell to a coupe in OTL, in a TL where the cold war is still ongoing... yeah, he isn't lasting very long.
This is all true. But there is a high risk of a civil war breaking out. Venezuela was very different from Chile. A clean coup followed by a wholesale extremination of the left is going to be impossible to repeat. One huge difference is that the military is not a homogeneous conservative institution in Venezuela. Many officers were left leaning, and they led the counter coup in 2002. Even if Chavez is killed, many troops are going to see him as a hero and refuse to suppress leftist demonstrators as soon as a leftist resistance takes shape as in OTL. You have armed leftist groups like the Venezuelan Tupamaro (they are still powerful; they allegedly played a small role in cowing anti government demonstrations in 2013 and 2014.) and powerful civil groups like the Bolivarian Circles. Stability won't be restored anytime soon, especially if the conflict is a proxy war.
I'll echo the other people saying that the U.S. Would never allow a pchedo communist like Chavez to assume power in the Cold War.
This is all true. But there is a high risk of a civil war breaking out. Venezuela was very different from Chile. A clean coup followed by a wholesale extremination of the left is going to be impossible to repeat. One huge difference is that the military is not a homogeneous conservative institution in Venezuela. Many officers were left leaning, and they led the counter coup in 2002. Even if Chavez is killed, many troops are going to see him as a hero and refuse to suppress leftist demonstrators as soon as a leftist resistance takes shape as in OTL. You have armed leftist groups like the Venezuelan Tupamaro (they are still powerful; they allegedly played a small role in cowing anti government demonstrations in 2013 and 2014.) and powerful civil groups like the Bolivarian Circles. Stability won't be restored anytime soon, especially if the conflict is a proxy war.