How would Chavez factor into the Cold War

Lets presume as a POD a hardliner like Romanov gets elected instead of Gorbachev, and the USSR/USA are still engaged in the Cold War, how does Chavez influence events in Latin America?
 
He doesn't. The United states cold war policies in Latin America mean that he is deposed or assassinated when or before he comes to power. The CIA may be lambasted for being a bunch of clowns, and their Latin America policy was at times cartoonish, but they were good at one thing and that was taking out anti American regimes. They were also good at supporting those who mouthed the right words. Chavez almost fell to a coupe in OTL, in a TL where the cold war is still ongoing... yeah, he isn't lasting very long.
 
Presumably the U.S. takes a hard line on overthrowing his government immediately, since Venezuela is a major oil producer. That seems likely, so he might not have time or space to influence events very much, assuming he can even come to power as in OTL. The Bolivarian movement might raise enough alarm in Washington that they intervene covertly in the 1998 elections that brought him to power IOTL, or back a coup immediately.

There's not much chance he can come to power early in his 1992 coup, but change the circumstances enough, and it seems possible with more Soviet, Cuban, and maybe Sandinista support. That could lead to a U.S. invasion or proxy war a la Nicaragua. At the very least the U.S. might take out Venezuela's oil production and refinement infrastructure.

Chavista Venezuela in a still ongoing Cold War might support the FARC and ELN, especially if the U.S. and Colombia are backing right wing elements in Venezuela.
 
He doesn't. The United states cold war policies in Latin America mean that he is deposed or assassinated when or before he comes to power. The CIA may be lambasted for being a bunch of clowns, and their Latin America policy was at times cartoonish, but they were good at one thing and that was taking out anti American regimes. They were also good at supporting those who mouthed the right words. Chavez almost fell to a coupe in OTL, in a TL where the cold war is still ongoing... yeah, he isn't lasting very long.

This is all true. But there is a high risk of a civil war breaking out. Venezuela was very different from Chile. A clean coup followed by a wholesale extremination of the left is going to be impossible to repeat. One huge difference is that the military is not a homogeneous conservative institution in Venezuela. Many officers were left leaning, and they led the counter coup in 2002. Even if Chavez is killed, many troops are going to see him as a hero and refuse to suppress leftist demonstrators as soon as a leftist resistance takes shape as in OTL. You have armed leftist groups like the Venezuelan Tupamaro (they are still powerful; they allegedly played a small role in cowing anti government demonstrations in 2013 and 2014.) and powerful civil groups like the Bolivarian Circles. Stability won't be restored anytime soon, especially if the conflict is a proxy war.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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I agree the US would cast more critical attention on left-wing populism in Venezuela if the Cold War was still going on with the Soviet Union, and this makes Chavez's rise to power and consolidation of his regime much less likely.

However, Reds did slip through twice. The ability of Chavism or Bolivarianism to take over and hold on in Venezuela would have to do a lot with the quality of its opponents and specific circumstances. Most of the time the US could act with effective harshness against leftist takeovers, but sometimes there were other considerations going on, for instance an excessively embarrassing dictator (Batista, Somoza), a successfully ambiguous revolutionary movement (Castro & then Sandinistas) that the US does not engage decisively to stop the change in power.

If said circumstances can be replicated in Venezuela, we could have a Soviet block Venezuela anyway.

Of course the US trying to "contra" it is guaranteed, but success is far from guaranteed.
 

Lateknight

Banned
I'll echo the other people saying that the U.S. Would never allow a pchedo communist like Chavez to assume power in the Cold War.
 
This is all true. But there is a high risk of a civil war breaking out. Venezuela was very different from Chile. A clean coup followed by a wholesale extremination of the left is going to be impossible to repeat. One huge difference is that the military is not a homogeneous conservative institution in Venezuela. Many officers were left leaning, and they led the counter coup in 2002. Even if Chavez is killed, many troops are going to see him as a hero and refuse to suppress leftist demonstrators as soon as a leftist resistance takes shape as in OTL. You have armed leftist groups like the Venezuelan Tupamaro (they are still powerful; they allegedly played a small role in cowing anti government demonstrations in 2013 and 2014.) and powerful civil groups like the Bolivarian Circles. Stability won't be restored anytime soon, especially if the conflict is a proxy war.

True, but that doesn't necessarily make it something they wouldn't do. It's often been the case that they prefer messy civil war to anti-american stability.
 

CalBear

Moderator
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The opposition would have received considerable funding, maybe covert direct support, but likely just money. Chavez would have been overthrown IOTL, was overthrown for all practical purposes, but the U.S. wouldn't provide even slight support, much less recognition, of the coup. In a Cold War scenario, there would have been no question or hesitation about recognizing the plotters are legitimate.
 
This is all true. But there is a high risk of a civil war breaking out. Venezuela was very different from Chile. A clean coup followed by a wholesale extremination of the left is going to be impossible to repeat. One huge difference is that the military is not a homogeneous conservative institution in Venezuela. Many officers were left leaning, and they led the counter coup in 2002. Even if Chavez is killed, many troops are going to see him as a hero and refuse to suppress leftist demonstrators as soon as a leftist resistance takes shape as in OTL. You have armed leftist groups like the Venezuelan Tupamaro (they are still powerful; they allegedly played a small role in cowing anti government demonstrations in 2013 and 2014.) and powerful civil groups like the Bolivarian Circles. Stability won't be restored anytime soon, especially if the conflict is a proxy war.

I was actually thinking that the end result would look a lot closer to Peru then Chile. Either Peru or Bolivia would be my model, but Peru is and was less of a basket case so...
 
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