How would British economy looks like without ww1?

Thomas1195

Banned
This long run can be very long, though; Italy, for example, still has a lower per capita GDP than Germany despite having many decades to "catch up".


I don't see how the breakdown of the British-backed gold standard would cause Germany to lose access to the world market. Higher transaction costs because of non-uniform monetary standards would only decrease trade, and that over a period of time, not plunge the world back into a Stone Age level of global autarky. They might be trading less, but they'll still be trading...
Well, then the fiat money era begins, like IOTL. In this era, Germany now can keep their currency artificially low, while Britain still sits there like a dummy (like Mr Trump talked about the US).
 

hipper

Banned
Well, IOTL, the first world war woke them up. ITTL, you would need another chain of events to trigger a complete change in British business culture, like how Jena-Auerstedt completely changed Prussia a century ago.

Don't tell me "Imperial Preference" because IOTL it was proved to be counter-productive over the long run.

I think you over emphasise the backwards nature of the British echonomy, free trade will cause the British economy to concentrate on Areas where it has a competitive advantage, such as complex machine tools. Over time the German and American economies will reach a point where they are willing to enforce patient regulations and without the destruction of war everyone will be much better off.
Well, then the fiat money era begins, like IOTL. In this era, Germany now can keep their currency artificially low, while Britain still sits there like a dummy (like Mr Trump talked about the US).

You mean germany twists its economy to keep Germans poorer and British people richer, Why is that a bad thing for the UK?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I think you over emphasise the backwards nature of the British echonomy, free trade will cause the British economy to concentrate on Areas where it has a competitive advantage, such as complex machine tools.
You mean textile, garments, shipbuilding, steam machinery, iron and steel (even so Britain was weaker in the last sector)?

Well, Britain would soon lose leadership in shipbuilding when welding and prefab technology mature. Likewise with textile when automatic loom eventually displaces Lancashire loom. Steam machinery and engines would be displaced by diesel and electrical ones.


By 1914, Germany held leadership in electrical and electromechanical engineering. These would be a strong basis for them to continue to lead in electronics and computer. They were also strong in machinery and metallurgy.


American, meanwhile, had clear advantage on steel, machinery and automobiles, as well as things like canned food.
 

Deleted member 94680

You mean textile, garments, shipbuilding, steam machinery, iron and steel (even so Britain was weaker in the last sector)?

Well, Britain would soon lose leadership in shipbuilding when welding and prefab technology mature. Likewise with textile when automatic loom eventually displaces Lancashire loom. Steam machinery and engines would be displaced by diesel and electrical ones.


By 1914, Germany held leadership in electrical and electromechanical engineering. These would be a strong basis for them to continue to lead in electronics and computer. They were also strong in machinery and metallurgy.


American, meanwhile, had clear advantage on steel, machinery and automobiles, as well as things like canned food.

Sorry, but while you're wanking the German economy to high heaven, what does all this have to do with your OP? What does the British economy look like without WWI? I understand you believe the Germans would dominate the world easily (laughably easily), but what would the British do? Simply revert to some cave-dwelling Luddite basket case in the face of German superiority?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Sorry, but while you're wanking the German economy to high heaven, what does all this have to do with your OP? What does the British economy look like without WWI? I understand you believe the Germans would dominate the world easily (laughably easily), but what would the British do? Simply revert to some cave-dwelling Luddite basket case in the face of German superiority?
Basically I say it would face deindustrialization.

Of course Germany would not dominate the world, but it would dominate Continental Europe. As I said, the demand for high-tech goods and consumer goods were mainly in Europe (dominated by Germany) or the US (where tariffs were 40+%). For example, car demand in places like Burma, Zulu, Zanzibar or Nigeria would be extremely low due to low living standard and crap roads. Lack of demand means any high-tech industry in the UK would stay weak or be strangled.

For low-tech industries like textile and footwear, eventually, other countries with cheaper labour cost would outcompete Britain.
 
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Deleted member 94680

Basically I say it would face deindustrialization.

Of course Germany would not dominate the world, but it would dominate Continental Europe. As I said, the demand for high-tech goods and consumer goods were mainly in Europe (dominated by Germany) or the US (where tariffs were 40+%). For example, car demand in places like Burma, Zulu, Zanzibar or Nigeria would be extremely low due to low living standard and crap roads. Lack of demand means any high-tech industry in the UK would stay weak or be strangled.

For low-tech industries like textile and footwear, eventually, other countries with cheaper labour cost would outcompete Britain.

Still not a reply and a bit of German wank thrown in. Again.
 

hipper

Banned
Basically I say it would face deindustrialization.

Of course Germany would not dominate the world, but it would dominate Continental Europe. As I said, the demand for high-tech goods and consumer goods were mainly in Europe (dominated by Germany) or the US (where tariffs were 40+%). For example, car demand in places like Burma, Zulu, Zanzibar or Nigeria would be extremely low due to low living standard and crap roads. Lack of demand means any high-tech industry in the UK would stay weak or be strangled.

For low-tech industries like textile and footwear, eventually, other countries with cheaper labour cost would outcompete Britain.

At what point do you think Germany would look to enforce patent laws to protect its superior industrial technology, and what effect would this have on say the German machine tool industry if the UK or US could enforce patent regulation.
 

hipper

Banned
Thomas 195 Said:

Germany could also economically cripple British Empire by creating 100+ Afghanistan


What sort of retaliation could the UK Inflict on Germany it it was being so stupid. Economic Blocade and siesure of overseas colonies would economically cripple Germany and humiliate her and there is not much she could do in return apart from submarine warfare which had unfortunate effects historically and was also ineffective.
 

hipper

Banned
Basically I say it would face deindustrialization.

Of course Germany would not dominate the world, but it would dominate Continental Europe. As I said, the demand for high-tech goods and consumer goods were mainly in Europe (dominated by Germany) or the US (where tariffs were 40+%). For example, car demand in places like Burma, Zulu, Zanzibar or Nigeria would be extremely low due to low living standard and crap roads. Lack of demand means any high-tech industry in the UK would stay weak or be strangled.

For low-tech industries like textile and footwear, eventually, other countries with cheaper labour cost would outcompete Britain.

the Uk would always be in a good position to sell goods to the developing world, as the major provider of capital there is a natural preference for the investment to be directed to
 

Deleted member 94680

Thomas 195 Said:

Germany could also economically cripple British Empire by creating 100+ Afghanistan


What sort of retaliation could the UK Inflict on Germany it it was being so stupid. Economic Blocade and siesure of overseas colonies would economically cripple Germany and humiliate her and there is not much she could do in return apart from submarine warfare which had unfortunate effects historically and was also ineffective.

I believe that Germany wouldn't be able to create even 10 Afghanistans. OTL their record was pretty poor at their attempts to do this kind of thing.

It's all part of the tangential mythical Anglo-German Cold War Thomas cooked up one evening after too many weissbeers when he'd temporarily grown tired of wanking the German economy.
 

hipper

Banned
Actually a good way to look at how the UK would develop is to look st what actually happened. For example Ford set up a Uk Plant in 1913 with the UKs first production line for automobiles however Fords of Britain became a separate company with substansial british investment in in the 20's and only reverted to a,erican controll in the early 50's

As I remember a similar thing happened in the electrical industry

So the answer to the op is clear The UK could use its superior availability of capital to take over profitable foreign buinuses in the uK and develop their methods for overseas expansion in its preferred markets.

It also starts making a lot of money when Germany and the US become rich and successful enough to enforce patent law.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Actually a good way to look at how the UK would develop is to look st what actually happened. For example Ford set up a Uk Plant in 1913 with the UKs first production line for automobiles however Fords of Britain became a separate company with substansial british investment in in the 20's and only reverted to a,erican controll in the early 50's

As I remember a similar thing happened in the electrical industry
Well, these factories you mentioned actually assembled imported components.

Firms in Britain before ww1 basically had no in-house R&D
 

BooNZ

Banned
Really? So there wasn't a huge diminution in urban/industrial and rural/agricultural unrest? No surge of patriotism?

Not especially, no. Any surge of patriotism would have been firmly behind the monarchy. More Russians considered Nicky a god than wanted rid of him - Russia did have serious educational issues...
 
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