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This is a 2-part question.

The first part is, what would happen? How much of a diasaster would be needed to lead to at least a small-scale civil war in Russia that would require Allied help solving?

The 2nd part is based on the fact someone on fanfiction.net has proposed that the White Russian spy Marya on Hogan's Heroes in the HH TL is...well, no fair spoiling, so here. http://www.fanfiction.net/s/8934668/1/The-Last-Secret.)

But, ignoring the HH aspect, and presuming just a figurehead leader would be replaced:

1. When could such an assassination happen and still leave the Allies in relatively good position to win by the end of 1945, though perhaps with an atom bomb being dropped? The closer to OTL's end date the better.

2. Did Stalin have such a tight grip that civil war could break out right away, or would others have to be assassinated, too?

(A HH episode uses an impostor who is to pose as an RAF pilot and shoot Churchill, early '44 according to a series TL someone did. They never say what happened to the impostor afterward, so it's conceivable he has plastic surgery and poses as a Russian next and does it. Alternatively, I suppose it could be something for right before the war ends, so the Soviets figure they can more easily chance shedding each others' blood since the war is won.)
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