How would assassination of Stalin impact WW2?

This is a 2-part question.

The first part is, what would happen? How much of a diasaster would be needed to lead to at least a small-scale civil war in Russia that would require Allied help solving?

The 2nd part is based on the fact someone on fanfiction.net has proposed that the White Russian spy Marya on Hogan's Heroes in the HH TL is...well, no fair spoiling, so here. http://www.fanfiction.net/s/8934668/1/The-Last-Secret.)

But, ignoring the HH aspect, and presuming just a figurehead leader would be replaced:

1. When could such an assassination happen and still leave the Allies in relatively good position to win by the end of 1945, though perhaps with an atom bomb being dropped? The closer to OTL's end date the better.

2. Did Stalin have such a tight grip that civil war could break out right away, or would others have to be assassinated, too?

(A HH episode uses an impostor who is to pose as an RAF pilot and shoot Churchill, early '44 according to a series TL someone did. They never say what happened to the impostor afterward, so it's conceivable he has plastic surgery and poses as a Russian next and does it. Alternatively, I suppose it could be something for right before the war ends, so the Soviets figure they can more easily chance shedding each others' blood since the war is won.)
 
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I think the big question here is when...
I know Stalin did some nasty stuff (and I'm NOT justifying it), but he did end up getting the Red Army into fighting shape, even with all the negative connotations it had before hand.

If he's assassinated during Barbarossa?
I think it depends more on if it's before or after Stalingrad.
Before? Then in my opinion the Soviet machine may just collapse. If after? Then the Soviets KNOW they can and probably will win.

Though I'd prefer someone with a bit more knowledge speak for this rather than me. Take what I say with a grain of salt.
 
Stalin and his cronies' tight control over the state would ensure that it does not collapse into civil war. What will happen will be much like IOTL; the NKO forms from the high ranking military and political officials to direct the Soviet war effort. The only difference is that, without Stalin's constant meddling, the Red Army won't suffer army after army being destroyed. Overall a much better result and an earlier defeat of Nazi Germany.

Stalin's effect on the Red Army and the USSR during the war was entirely negative. Him stepping back and letting the STAVKA and general's staff do their job resulted in much better performance.
 
Without Stalin at the top, if Germany sends out desperation peace feelers in 1943 or so does the USSR accept? I would still expect them to decline on roll on to central Germany, but you never know.
 
Without Stalin at the top, if Germany sends out desperation peace feelers in 1943 or so does the USSR accept? I would still expect them to decline on roll on to central Germany, but you never know.

Most likely not, the entire Soviet political and military leadership was just as committed to a war to the death as Stalin.
 
Most likely not, the entire Soviet political and military leadership was just as committed to a war to the death as Stalin.

What if the Germans bombed the Politburo during a meeting? Of coruse they'd probably have huge security measures, but a bomber could get lucky. (Of coruse, bombers weren't nearly as precise as they are nowadays.)
 

Robert

Banned
Zhukov had more to do with the revitalization of the Red Army then Stalin. The latter's need for control of the Army led to situations were escaped Red Army POWs were executed upon returning to Russian lines for being captured in the first place.

The Soviet Union survived the Nazi invasion because it had enough men and space to form a defense in depth, something none of the other countries who face the Germans had.

Stalin would have been replaced by the person most likely to have assassinated him, Beria. The war might have lasted longer on the Eastern Front because of additionally political interference in military operations.
 
Beria never had a chance of assassinating Stalin. If he tried to organize anything his subordinates would have denounced him in a second.

The Soviet also so because of it's superior organization, doctrine, deception, and conduct on an operational level.
 
A lot depends on when this happens -and whether the assassination is from somebody pissed because his family went to the Gulag or whether its a plot with high level conspirators. Assuming the latter, a lot depends on who the plotters are, and with the former it can actually be a lot messier. With Stalin there was no real number two - and if Beria makes a move it will be bloody - the army hated him, as well as many others both because of his position as head of the secret police and his incredibly repulsive personal qualities. Do recall after Stalin died the other members of the Politburo made sure Beria did not take over, and ended up dead.

There is a real range of possibilities from a blip in Soviet responses to a complete breakdown...
 
A conspiracy against Stalin after 1930-31 is next to impossible. The network if security, informants, paranoia, etc simply made any serious plan impossible to hide. Plus anyone with any chance if trying, especially Beria, was terrified into submission and kept under observation. The NKVD was only under Beria's command because Stalin made it so; any one of his subordinates would betray him in a heartbeat if he attempted a conspiracy.
 
There is a small possibility immediately following Barbarossa's start in 1941. Beria could have killed Stalin during his week's disappearance from about June 23-30. This, however, requires Beria to act alone; following the Great Terror there was no chance of any organized conspiracy, especially in the higher echelons.

What happens after is interesting. An early assassination such as the one above will have ramifications, but probably more to the benefit of the Soviets than the Germans. By the time the political dust settles I cannot see the Germans gaining much more than OTL, and ITTL there is no meddling from Stalin to hinder the Red Army.
 
"Lenin left us the proletarian Soviet state, but we have sh** all over it"

After his nervous breakdown in the Kremlin at the news of the German invasion, Stalin retreated to his dacha outside Moscow. Unsure of what to do and desperate to escape the nightmare unfolding before him, Stalin turned to the nice bottle of Georgian wine his servants had brought. That and the nice vodka he had been saving finally seemed to be able to provide him some peace of mind.

His world came crashing around him though when he saw the cars approaching. There they were: Beria, Molotov, Kaganovici and all the others. They had come to arrest him, to parade him before a court, make a mockery of him and then execute him like a common criminal, blaming him for the disaster that had befallen the country. But it was is fault after all, wasn't it ? He should have seen all of this coming, he should have read the wrinting on the wall. Now, generations will come to blame him for having lost the workers paradise.

Looking around, he finally saw a way out. It was his pistol, safely tucked into the drawer of his desk. Yes, that was it ! They would never take him alive. He would deny those traitors and dogs the chance to ridicule him. Even in death, he was above them.

As Beria and the others approached the last guardpost, still thinking and discussing how to convince Stalin to return to lead him, to make use of his abilities and his name in order to defend the Motherland and organize its defense, they heard a thunderous sound. It was unmistakenly a gunshot. Moments later when they entered his office, they realized their worst fears had come true. The great leader was no more...
 
Plausible enough Magnum, Stalin did hit his low point after he realized he had been out masterminded with Barbarossa. The question is what type of leadership do we get? An early troika perhaps, I suspect the Red Army will let Stalingrad fall in this scenario, it was the city's position as Stalin's namesake that really kept the fighting going. That being said Stalin taking himself out of the picture will likely butterfly Stalingrad and its strategic importance as a response to the specific Nazi advances of OTl. After all Hitler liked to rewrite battle plans as he went along, it was one of his revisions that untimely lead to the desperate attempt to fell the city.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Who was it that was by through some no-doubt demonic means, scarier than Stalin? Was it Beria or Molotov? Whichever one, I want him in office. How much like Oceania or Eurasia can you really make the Soviet Union?

Oooo. For added fun, get Reinhard Heydrich in the Fueher's chair. I want the personifications of all things wrong and horrible about humanity to duke it out, and whoever wins, we all lose! It's better this way!
 
Beria Shoots Stalin June 23, someone shoots Beria. Their bodies get transported to near the front line. We only find out for sure in the 1950s that the srory that they did NOT die AS FIRST martyrs in the Great Patriotic War
 
Know Nothing said:
if Germany sends out desperation peace feelers in 1943 or so does the USSR accept?
ASB. Considering how the Germans have been butchering Sov citizens....

As for the OP, the big question in my mind is when. In '40-1, there's a chance to improve Sov defenses & readiness, without Stalin deluding himself. In '38-9, a chance for a deal with the Brits, & a pretty good chance of no deal with Germany. (Offhand, IDK if that also means no non-aggression deal with Japan; I've a sense that would go off as OTL.)
 
Stalin was about the most dangerous person in the USSR, the only person who conceivably take him out is... himself
 
If Stalin was assassinated, the biggest question is who takes over? Maybe a military commander or at least someone who lets the generals make the strategy decisions or do we get someone who meddles even more than Stalin did?
 

sharlin

Banned
Re stalin meddling in military affairs, at least he didn't meddle as much as Hitler and he learned to listen to his military advisors after some bloody disasters.
 
According some sources, Stalin fear to be executed on order by politbureau or Communist Party, as the Wehrmacht approach Moscow in 1941.
Stalin so the sources, had believe that the Invasion and his lack of reaction to it would cost his live.

Historical fact is that defense of USSR during WW2 stand and fall with Stalin.
He remain in Moscow as the politbureau fleeing by train direction east.
Stalin used ruthless his troops to stop the Wehrmacht, he not care if complete red army divisions were slaughtered by germans
only if they delay or stop the Wehrmacht progress...

in other words, Stalin was the right man on right time in 1941 USSR
 
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