Although Bill Clinton was elected President with only 43% of the vote, the electoral college was a more decisive victory with 370 votes for Clinton and 128 for Bush. Clinton's performance was due in part to his popularity in the South, where he won narrow victories in Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia and more decisive victories in Louisiana and his home state of Arkansas.
Clinton didn't have especially strong competitors for the Democratic nomination: Jerry Brown suffered a backlash from New York's Jewish community when he promised to tap Jesse Jackson as his running mate, Paul Tsongas was seen as another uncharismatic Massachusetts liberal in the vein of Michael Dukakis, while Tom Harkin and Bob Kerrey were unable to gain traction outside of the Midwest. Prominent Democrats such as Jackson and Mario Cuomo had declined to enter the race, as it was expected that President George Bush would be re-elected due to his popularity after the Persian Gulf War.
But what if any of Clinton's primary opponents or any candidates who did not run had been nominated instead? Would they have defeated Bush? If so, what would the 1992 electoral map have looked like?
Clinton didn't have especially strong competitors for the Democratic nomination: Jerry Brown suffered a backlash from New York's Jewish community when he promised to tap Jesse Jackson as his running mate, Paul Tsongas was seen as another uncharismatic Massachusetts liberal in the vein of Michael Dukakis, while Tom Harkin and Bob Kerrey were unable to gain traction outside of the Midwest. Prominent Democrats such as Jackson and Mario Cuomo had declined to enter the race, as it was expected that President George Bush would be re-elected due to his popularity after the Persian Gulf War.
But what if any of Clinton's primary opponents or any candidates who did not run had been nominated instead? Would they have defeated Bush? If so, what would the 1992 electoral map have looked like?