Well, around the nuclear war it has accumulated a lot of myths. I will try to present my vision of her, based on the knowledge I have. Not knowing the strategic plans of the USSR, you can not assess where and how much of the missiles will be used. One can only speculate. Depending on the size and level of development of a hostile state to make its destruction need a different number of explosions. Country like France have been completely destroyed by the explosion of about 200 warheads. Additional 50-70 heads is needed to destroy strategic forces and the forces of such a State. However, the doctrine states that as a result of failure and the impact of the opponent to get to the real can only approx. 35% of the planned missile. As it would, in fact, difficult to predict. It is impossible to predict how many of them have been able to shoot anti-aircraft defense. Assume that 20%. So this ability to defend and faulty or inaccurate attacks should be devoted to the destruction of France around 350-400 warheads.
Soviet strategic forces would probably split more or less like this:
30% USA and Canada
15% China
25% Western Europe
10% Japan, Taiwan and South Korea
10% of the strategic reserve
10% of other hostile countries (Arab, Latino, etc.).
Certainly would bombed all the cities of the size of 100 thousand residents or more, hubs, industrial and mining areas, areas of concentration of large military units. Most will be destroyed the major players - the US and the Soviet Union and all the nuclear powers. Strong blows would receive economically developed countries (Japan, Germany, etc.), very heavily bombed been China - its enormous population would be a great power in the "war after a nuclear war" - attacks have destroyed so the centers of population concentration, communication and industrial districts, leaving the surviving population of China the possibilities of movement and supplies. The worst place (or the best from another point of view) would be Moscow - Moscow area is a gigantic city, the capital of the empire, the seat of political and administrative, industrial, military area with a large presence of underground installations. Defense of Moscow is composed of missiles, which have a explode in the atmosphere, destroying incoming warheads shock wave - they also contribute to pollution in the vicinity of Moscow. All this makes for Moscow with nuclear warheads have fallen one after the other, and many of them it would be ground burst. In the event of nuclear war with Moscow will not escape even rats - turn it on equal ground radioactive rubble from time to time varied crater on the ground thermonuclear explosion and evenly covered with a thick layer of radioactive dust and ash. A similar fate indeed all the major cities of the USSR. Total number of heads that the NATO powers could be used against USRR ensures that no city would survive no more than 20 000 inhabitants. The exchange punches will probably not last more than 100 hours. Nuclear attacks will come dwindling waves to hinder the defense. After this time all the warring parties likely to agree to a ceasefire. Governments (or their successors in succession) will be too frightened scale of destruction and the need to rescue what was to continue the war. Despite the enormous hatred that will be felt for each other, further carry out activities of both nuclear forces and conventional forces in the face losses of 50-70 percent. units and total interruption of logistics is not just possible.
Everything that could be found in the vicinity of the explosion and has been subjected to thermal radiation would start to burn. In Hiroshima it was established phenomenon firestorm - gigantic fire that draws air from the area of the hurricane, fueling thus harder fire. Wind force is so great that it raises up even the roofs of buildings and cars. It also sucks oxygen from the surrounding area, killing people hidden in shelters. After the explosion in Hiroshima storm fire raged for six hours. However, modern concrete city are not flammable and should not be expected to develop firestorm, but many normal building fires and forests (depending on the season and humidity). The creation of mega fires involving forests and urban areas, often by picking on fire all the provinces, it is very unlikely. Only in favorable conditions (dry summer) lead to large fires. Nuclear explosion produces another effect - electromagnetic pulse. Particularly strong impulse can be induced by the explosion in the upper atmosphere. This phenomenon induces an electric charge in everything that conducts electricity to the giant fields - whole continents from a single bomb. For a man this effect is harmless and imperceptible, but all the equipment and machines will be damaged or destroyed. They will cars burn computers, hard drives will be erased. Only devices that are under the earth (about 1 meter), or hidden in a Faraday cage survive this phenomenon unscathed.
Passed away after the first impact of the explosion remains only one, though extremely unpleasant - fallout. Fallout starts at the explosion and settle on everything in the direction of the wind. The closer to zero the greater precipitation, as the most irradiated particles of earth and dust fall first. Wind directions are different at different heights, and the fungus is fallout on the many layers of the atmosphere. The shape of the fallout so resembles a hand with fingers rozcapierzonymi from the explosion site in the direction of the wind - mostly in the east. The most dangerous contamination occurs in the first few hours of the first day. The entire precipitation may be floating in the atmosphere for up to a month or longer, traveling through continents. If we are about a hundred or more kilometers from the explosion sites, we have at least a few hours before precipitation reaches us. For precipitation caused explosions ground (air causes much less precipitation) there is still contamination from damaged nuclear power plants, which in Europe are dozens (and the radioactive material contained in them will be sprayed by the explosion). The greatest pollution occurs at a distance of about 150 km from the power plant - which is deadly for the whole of Western Europe. Most radiation expressed in roentgens per hour. You can also be administered in rem (roentgen equivalent in man or mammal) where it relates to human or mammal of similar size. In this sense, it rem conversion roentgens on a living organism. For example, the radiation dose of 200 roentgens per hour makes a man after two hours of being in such a place is irradiated to 400 rem. The dose causing disease starts from 150-200 R, but rarely such a dose fatal. With the irradiation of 450-500 rem half the people dying. 2000 rem causes death after approx. Two weeks of virtually any irradiated. 10 thousand rem killed on the same day.
Protection against precipitation depends on where you hide. It is expressed in the protective value of PF (protection factor). It expresses how many times is reduced radiation dose in a given location in relation to the person who is outside - having PF 0. For example, PF 10 means that the amount was reduced 10 times. Those hidden in basements or inside large concrete buildings are protected from radiation protective value PF 40-50. Prepared specifically gives shelter przeciwopadowy cover even the PF 100-300. Professional military shelters provide cover about 1000 PF. Real contamination of surrounding fallout of 200-300 roentgens per hour, even those hidden only in the basement can easily survive. In this cellar should withstand at least several days, and preferably for a month.
Since the beginning of the atomic era, people are convinced that nuclear war will end life on Earth. As a last resort, if even survive the war, it would kill us poison radiation Iodine-131, Strontium-90, Cesium-137. These poisons enter the human body and settle in the thyroid (Iodine-131), muscle (Caesium-137), bone (Strontium-90). There disintegrate, releasing radiation and kill people and animals radiation or cancer. Moreover, dusts and fumes from the cities and forests mask the sun and cause a nuclear winter, which may cause an ice age or even the effect of the Earth-snowball. The disappearance of the ozone layer will cause the death of the plant underwent excessive UV radiation and severe burns people after a few minutes in the sun and snow blindness.
Surely it would not be nice, but if you really so bad? Iodine-131 has a half-life of eight days. Even after a month of virtually disappears after a few months you can forget about it completely. Children need to give Lugol's solution to iodine from entering the thyroid their developing. If a month does not go out of the basement are safe, disappear and radiation from fallout and Iodine-131. Strontium and cesium have a half-life of about 30 years. Even if they land in the human body, it is only after about 15-30 years can cause cancer - in the post-nuclear war 30 years of age is an abstract length. 1000 will be the things that could easily kill than these elements. Most people have time to live his life and bring up the children before they develop cancer from these elements. Children will not be carried genetic defects than a few percent more than today. People die hard irradiated and irradiated the poor will not have damaged gametes so that there were genetic defects. Only developing fetuses at the outbreak of war can be damaged by radiation.
So how could it be?
The result of getting dust and fumes into the upper atmosphere may be or ten-percent reduction in sunlight. This will cause severe cooling and accelerated the coming of winter, even in the middle of summer. Periods of vegetation will be shortened. But there will be an ice age or snowball. There will be, however, the disappearance of the ozone layer. This will cause the skin, especially white men, would be within a few minutes had experienced sunburn. It should also be wear eye protection. You will probably need to go to the mode of night life, in the day to go out just exactly wrapped in materials and with glasses on his eyes. The same effect and fallout causes the death of many larger animals. Small animals spend most of their time underground and are active at night, so you do not suffer so much. Approximately 50-70% of the inhabitants of big cities will die immediately. Fallout kill the people living along its route especially if they do not know that they should hide and how to do it - blame is a common belief that this cataclysm can not survive.
As a result of the attack and the fallout, population of the US and European countries have decreased by about 25-50% in the first month after the war. To reduce the losses caused by nuclear weapons is essential awareness of the population - what to do to survive. Very important it is to prepare in advance for the survival and stockpiles of food and water (both personal preparation and in the framework of civil defense). Equally important as the physical preparation and supply is mental preparation - the will and belief in survival. Without this psychological effects can have equally devastating effects like fallout. All of these conditions are met, even now at frighteningly low. People do not know what to do to avoid the fallout, do not have stocks of food and medicines and are confident that all actions are meaningless, because the only chances of survival on Earth are hidden in secret government databases.
The first days and weeks after the war
People living in the centers of large cities would die in the first seconds and minutes. Those who live in the suburbs, burned, wounded and irradiated, they will try to escape the fallout. On foot, of course - no car will run (EMP effect), with the state of the roads will also be bad. Hundreds of thousands of people in cities will try to escape to the surrounding villages and towns - there will be greeted differently. Refugees passing through contaminated areas will be irradiated to death and die far away two weeks later. Without food, medical care, wounded and irradiated will not go too far - tens of perhaps a hundred kilometers from the city. If war breaks out in a cold period, most refugees do not survive the first days, having no shelter and proper clothing. Most either die or be accepted by the villagers. Part already become gangs of robbers attacking other refugees or single houses. Perhaps the government will try to arrange some refugee camps. With each passing day the situation in them to deteriorate because of problems with the delivery of supplies. The armed forces will quite quickly become distracted. Maintaining discipline in such conditions is impossible. The soldiers will want to find their families. Some of them will desert with guns, forming armed gangs. In the army will remain only those who will be believed that this gives them the best chance of survival especially not having family or assuming that the family was dead. With time, the government will lose more and more influence on the armed forces. No supplies, no fuels, difficult communication and transport will be gradually enfeebled ability to manage the state and the army. You will be a powerful wave of suicide - especially among refugees from towns and soldiers. People in the countryside, who have not lost neither homes nor families will commit suicide much less common, but many of them do it out of fear of the future or thinking that radiation sickness and death is inevitable.
Covering the sky by dust and fumes cause significant cooling in the next few weeks. Regardless of the season (summer or winter), many people will die as a consequence, lack of food and shelter - just one night in the cold for exhausted stressed people. Medical assistance will not work outside the camps refugees. Spread so will the disease, whose names have already forgotten, like cholera, typhoid and others. Accelerated the arrival of cold weather will cause the harvest this year will be very bleak. But probably enough to feed villages. Many livestock fall even in areas not affected by radioactive fallout. The same fate awaits animals in the woods.
The first half of the year after the war
Radiation has virtually disappeared. It remains, of course, Strontium and Cesium, but they will be with us for the next few hundred years, so let us not think about them.
Depending on when will the war winter of this year will come quickly or be extended. Probably even half of the year will be snowy and cold. It will be devastating conditions for refugees. The villagers endure the winter quite well, trying to get as much information about the world. At late spring, farmers will sow. Animals economic hardly endure the winter - do not have enough feed. In the coming year will be missing fertilizers and insecticides and chwasto - no longer operating chemical plants and the transport does not work. Some farmers will have more stocks. Perhaps some enterprising individuals will organize a trade in these materials. Anyway, for sure there will be enough. Combined with weak harvest in the previous year, the strong UV radiation and reduced temperatures will exceptionally poor harvests. No operating agricultural machinery and the lack of liquid fuels of the few that will work, it will give a chance to work with urban refugees. They will work for food and howl because of happiness. Attacks band robbery will become increasingly severe. They spent the winter prioritize and recognition purposes. Moreover, hunger has increased their determination. In the spring they begin to attack villages and farms. The peasants organize self-defense force comes to getting bloodier fighting. The most dangerous bandit group made up of former soldiers, however, have the advantage and many villages are burnt. A group of rogue civilians will focus on attacking the lonely farms. The struggle between the people and getting worse harvest, along with the lack of medical care and medicines cause high mortality of the population. In many villages and towns explode epidemics. People slowly begin to learn to live in the new conditions. Any error or infection will be paid death. Increased threat to life, lack of contraception and the lack of other entertainment will result in increased birth rate. People will return to the natural cycle of having the first child soon after puberty.
The first year after the war
who was supposed to die, dead. People already know what works and what does not. They know how to get food, heal, attack and defend. Around the local leaders (whether or rogue groups defense) formed the team. Increased experience and skills of fighting on both sides. Vulnerable groups are eliminated bandit. After all, the population continues to decline due to food shortages, disease and fighting. It appears in the first generation of children after the war. The remaining towns become centers of trade and industry. Manages to repair many machines and devices. Slowly restores the long-distance transport in the form of steam-powered railways. The sky begins to clear. With the slow playback of industry and trade and improving the climate finally yields are sufficient. Local rulers organize teams to combat bandits. There are also a team of mercenaries. These teams they charge for protection - it becomes a new profession (often difficult distinguishable from bandits). Reborn wild forest. It is becoming easier to feed themselves with hunting and gathering. Slow play is political power. Perhaps at this stage it has been to create local-states and wars between them.
What future ?
The situation in Europe, North America and most of Asia resemble a combination of the Wild West and the medieval feudalism, improved is that people would have access to the knowledge of many modern technologies (in the form of books and other sources). They would be able to arrange the ruins of cities and industrial plants in search technology. They could also trade with the countries of the Southern Hemisphere, most of which have survived in one piece. The development would be rapid. Rapidly growing population, new social relations. Perhaps civilization to come full circle, but then abruptly fired by forward. Nuclear war would be the greatest catastrophe in human history. The worst day in the history, the worst all the plagues. Unimaginable number of people would have died a horrible death. However, not only did not end to life on earth, but even civilization would survive. There was a huge change that, similar to the fall of the Roman Empire. Civilization, which would be after the rose would have a different face, character and habits.
Sources:
- Bruce D. Clayton Ph.D, Life after doomsday, Paladin Press, 1979
- “Long term worldwide effects of multiple nuclear weapons detonations” raport National Academy of Sciences, 1975
- Samuel Glasstone, Philip J. Dolan, the effects of nuclear weapons, United States Department Of Defense And The Energy Research And Development Administration, 1977
- Worldwide effects of nuclear war - some perspectives, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1975.
- Center for Defense Information,
www.cdi.org
- Captain John W. Dorough, Jr. Soviet Civil Defense U.S.S.R. preparations for industrial-base war survival Air University Review, March-April 1977