How would a World War I which breaks out in 1917 look like?

CaliGuy

Banned
Here is the scenario--let's say that Franz Ferdinand survives that 1914 assassination attempt on him at Sarajevo and thus World War I doesn't break out in 1914. Rather, World War I breaks out in 1917 in this TL after Franz Ferdinand becomes Emperor and fails to renew the Ausgleich (due to Hungarian resistance and hostility towards Franz Ferdinand). As a result of the Austro-Hungarian civil war, Russia sees a golden opportunity to break up Austria-Hungary (especially considering that its own Great Military Program is on the verge of completion at this point in time) and comes up with some excuse (if necessary, by faking evidence)--such as Hungary's treatment of its Ruthenian minority--to go to war with Austria-Hungary in this TL.

Basically, this TL's World War I will likely involve France (as a Russian ally), Italy (as a country that also wants to break-up Austria-Hungary), Russia, Serbia (as a Russian ally), Montenegro (as a Russian ally), and Romania (as a country that also wants to break-up Austria-Hungary) on one side and Germany and Austria on the other side. (Hungary would presumably be in the position of fighting Germany and Austria but not allied with anyone else; after all, I doubt that Russia would ally with the anti-Slav Hungarians in place of allying with Serbia and Romania.) Meanwhile, Britain, the U.S., and the Ottoman Empire would presumably be neutral in this TL's WWI. Also, I am presuming that, due to the approaching completion of the Russian Great Military Program, the Schlieffen Plan would already be approaching its expiration date and thus wouldn't be used in this TL's WWI.

Anyway, how exactly would this TL's WWI have turned out?

Any thoughts on this?
 
Is there any guarantee that France would join in? On one hand, they have clear nationalistic motivation, but on the other hand, Russia is the clear aggressor, and France has a reputation to uphold, and that's ignoring that the Entente was a defensive alliance.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, for the record, my own thoughts on this are that the Franco-Russian alliance and their allies (Italy, Romania, Serbia, et cetera) would certainly have an initial edge over Germany and Austria; however, the crucial question is whether or not they would be able to successfully translate their initial edge into a victory in this TL's WWI.
 
What are the chances Germany remains neutral hoping to suprprise anchluss German Austria in the aftermath?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Is there any guarantee that France would join in?

Guarantee? No, I don't think so. However, if Russia, say, comes up with some fake stories about severe Hungarian human rights abuses in Ruthenia or whatever, then that might provide enough cover for France to enter this war.

Plus, France wanted Alsace-Lorraine back and it's not like it would have many opportunities to do this; sure, Russia would be behaving aggressively, but it's also a really good moment for France to settle its own scores with Germany.

On one hand, they have clear nationalistic motivation, but on the other hand, Russia is the clear aggressor, and France has a reputation to uphold, and that's ignoring that the Entente was a defensive alliance.

I suppose that France could argue that Russia is only intervening in Austria-Hungary to protect the Ruthenians (or whomever), though.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
What are the chances Germany remains neutral hoping to suprprise anchluss German Austria in the aftermath?
Close to zero; after all, if Russia is able to successfully partition Austria-Hungary, it might get hungry for the Memelland and for Germany's Polish-majority provinces afterwards.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, Yes, I am aware of the potential danger that Russia would face in supporting separatism in Austria-Hungary so blatantly; however, if both Germany and Austria are defeated, then there really wouldn't be anyone strong enough who would be able to promote separatism in Russia. After all, France is a Russian ally and would be too weak and far away to effectively do this even if it and Russia had a falling out while both Britain and the U.S. had very small land armies!
 
Also, Yes, I am aware of the potential danger that Russia would face in supporting separatism in Austria-Hungary so blatantly; however, if both Germany and Austria are defeated, then there really wouldn't be anyone strong enough who would be able to promote separatism in Russia. After all, France is a Russian ally and would be too weak and far away to effectively do this even if it and Russia had a falling out while both Britain and the U.S. had very small land armies!
Britain would definitely join against the Russians in this scenario, and don't forget the Ottomans, Chinese, and Japanese.
 
Well, in this scenario, I don't think France involves itself because as previously mentioned, the Entente is defensive; without France, it's way too risky for Italy to join given theyt would be alone in the west. I can definetly see the Ottomans joining the Germans and Austrians, as they are Russia's historic enemies, and there's a chance even Britain joins the CP to mantain the balance of power in Europe between Germany and Russia. Remember Russia could potentially threaten British posessions in Asia too.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Britain would definitely join against the Russians in this scenario,

Why would it? After all, Britain would still have memories of the Anglo-German naval arms race during this time!

Indeed, maybe Britain could have entered the war on Germany's side had those tensions previously not occurred; however, memories of those tensions aren't going to go away by 1917.

and don't forget the Ottomans,

The Ottomans would only enter the war on Germany's side if they actually think that Germany can win this war, though.


I doubt that China wants to lose Inner Manchuria to Russia, though.

and Japanese.

Is Japan that hungry for northern Sakhalin?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, in this scenario, I don't think France involves itself because as previously mentioned, the Entente is defensive;

Can't France transform its defensive alliance with Russia to an offensive alliance, though? After all, Britain was able to transform its Ententes with France and Russia into an alliance in 1914 in our TL.

without France, it's way too risky for Italy to join given theyt would be alone in the west.

I disagree with you that France wouldn't enter this war, though; basically, I think that France's desire to recapture Alsace-Lorraine would outweigh any French moral qualms about Russia's aggression in Austria-Hungary.

I can definetly see the Ottomans joining the Germans and Austrians, as they are Russia's historic enemies,

Sure, the Ottomans can enter the war--if it actually looks like Germany has a realistic chance of winning this war. Else, the Ottomans will stay out since they wouldn't want to get their butts kicked.

and there's a chance even Britain joins the CP to mantain the balance of power in Europe between Germany and Russia. Remember Russia could potentially threaten British posessions in Asia too.

Frankly, I suspect that memories of the Anglo-German naval arms race (which ended in 1912) would prevent Britain from allying with Germany and Austria in this TL's World War I. After all, memories those kinds of tensions generally don't just disappear after just five years!
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, Yes, Russia could eventually threaten British possessions in Asia. However, the best move for Britain might be perceived to stay out of this TL's WWI and to prepare for that contingency if it ever comes (as opposed to putting its possessions in Asia in danger right now by sending its boys to die on Germany's behalf!).
 
If Austria-Hungary breaks apart due to the conflict between Franz Ferdinand and Hungary - and this spirals into a world war - then presumably the Entente will be allied with Hungary, no? This would automatically give them at least one excuse/reason for entering the conflict, and the isn't really a reason why they'd want to participate as a complete third wheel in the fight.
(Also, Hungary's treatment of its Ruthenian minority was not that bad - mediocre, at worst; but this doesn't matter since an excuse of this kind will not be necessary.)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Austria-Hungary breaks apart due to the conflict between Franz Ferdinand and Hungary - and this spirals into a world war - then presumably the Entente will be allied with Hungary, no?

That might be problematic both due to Hungary's anti-Slav attitude and--if the former can be overcome--due to both Romania's and Serbia's territorial claims on Hungary.

This would automatically give them at least one excuse for entering the conflict, and they don't really have a reason to enter as a complete third wheel.

The problem with this, though, is that both Serbia and Romania want a part of Hungary for themselves:

24a_balkan_aspirations.png


(The above is a colored version of a 1914 map, if you are curious. :))

Thus, why not allow Austria to mostly crush the Hungarians (and weaken itself in the process, of course) and then to gang up on both Austria and on whatever is left of Hungary?

(Also, Hungary's treatment of its Ruthenian minority was not that bad - mediocre, at worst; but this doesn't matter since an excuse of this kind will not be necessary.)

OK; however, Russia can lie--with fake evidence, if necessary--in order to come up with an excuse for war. Indeed, just take a look at what Vladimir Putin did in Ukraine in 2014 in our TL!
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, for the record, I do think that Hungary's anti-Slav attitude could have been overcome; after all, Russia has already allied with republican France by this point in time! However, allying with Hungary would be problematic when Romania and especially Russia's ally Serbia want large parts of Hungary for themselves.
 
Trotsky argued in his history of the Russian Revolution that the w kear postponed inte revolution by a couple of years, and given accounts of the industrial unrest in St. Petersburg in the summer of 1914, he had a point.

As it happened, every great power was undergoing some sort of domestic political crisis in 1914. In France and Austria-Hungary they weren't more than the normal stuff that kept cropping up in these countries' politics, and the German government could have defused the situation with some concessions to the Reichstag and SPD. However, things were pretty bad in Russia and the UK. In the UK at the least you would have seen the Asquith government out by 1915, likely replaced by a Tory ministry, with violence in Ireland similar to what happened after the war IOTL.

Then there is Turkey which is always a flash point, and the situation there is almost too complicated for a comment on an internet forum.

Russia was undergoing a big military buildup, of both their army and their navy, underwritten by French loans, and if they can avoid revolution they would be Europe's leading military power by 1916. Germany couldn't keep up, which played a big part in the July crisis, the German generals were telling the government (accurately) "if you are going to have a war with Russia, you have to have it now." However, for balance of power reasons this would mean the UK swinging from the Franco-Russian side to the German-Austrian side, if the civilians in the German government had kept their nerve in 1914.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Trotsky argued in his history of the Russian Revolution that the w kear postponed inte revolution by a couple of years, and given accounts of the industrial unrest in St. Petersburg in the summer of 1914, he had a point.

As it happened, every great power was undergoing some sort of domestic political crisis in 1914. In France and Austria-Hungary they weren't more than the normal stuff that kept cropping up in these countries' politics, and the German government could have defused the situation with some concessions to the Reichstag and SPD. However, things were pretty bad in Russia and the UK. In the UK at the least you would have seen the Asquith government out by 1915, likely replaced by a Tory ministry, with violence in Ireland similar to what happened after the war IOTL.

Then there is Turkey which is always a flash point, and the situation there is almost too complicated for a comment on an internet forum.

Russia was undergoing a big military buildup, of both their army and their navy, underwritten by French loans, and if they can avoid revolution they would be Europe's leading military power by 1916. Germany couldn't keep up, which played a big part in the July crisis, the German generals were telling the government (accurately) "if you are going to have a war with Russia, you have to have it now."

Agreed with all of this.

However, for balance of power reasons this would mean the UK swinging from the Franco-Russian side to the German-Austrian side, if the civilians in the German government had kept their nerve in 1914.

Eventually--probably not as early as 1917, though.
 
That might be problematic both due to Hungary's anti-Slav attitude and--if the former can be overcome--due to both Romania's and Serbia's territorial claims on Hungary.

The problem with this, though, is that both Serbia and Romania want a part of Hungary for themselves:

(The above is a colored version of a 1914 map, if you are curious. :))

Thus, why not allow Austria to mostly crush the Hungarians (and weaken itself in the process, of course) and then to gang up on both Austria and on whatever is left of Hungary?

That is not impossible.
However, there are some things to keep in mind:

-jumping into the conflict as an enemy of both sides would be diplomatically difficult, and troublesome in other ways too (for example, it risks that Vienna and Budapest reconcile their differences at the last minute and join together once again);

-the importance of pan-Slavism for Russian foreign policy is exaggerated; for that matter, Hungary's "anti-Slav" attitude is a little exaggerated too.

-even so, pan-Slavism has bigger fish to fry than Hungary: from their perspective, the situation in Galicia (and even the situation in Bosnia and other South Slavic lands) is much more important. Accomplishing the liberation of the Serbs, the independence of south Slavs, the "liberation" of Galicia, and some small improvement for Slavic minorities in Hungary, would be more than enough for pan-Slavism's appetite.

-Serbia will accept not annexing any part of Hungary, so long as it gets to fulfill its primary ambitions. Romania's primary ambitions are in Hungary - but it can still be bought off with the territory of Bukovina.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That is not impossible.
However, there are some things to keep in mind:

-jumping into the conflict as an enemy of both sides would be diplomatically difficult, and troublesome in other ways too (for example, it risks that Vienna and Budapest reconcile their differences at the last minute and join together once again);

-the importance of pan-Slavism for Russian foreign policy is exaggerated; for that matter, Hungary's "anti-Slav" attitude is a little exaggerated too.

-even so, pan-Slavism has bigger fish to fry than Hungary: from their perspective, the situation in Galicia (and even the situation in Bosnia and other South Slavic lands) is much more important. Accomplishing the liberation of the Serbs, the independence of south Slavs, the "liberation" of Galicia, and some small improvement for Slavic minorities in Hungary, would be more than enough for pan-Slavism's appetite.

-Serbia will accept not annexing any part of Hungary, so long as it gets to fulfill its primary ambitions. Romania's primary ambitions are in Hungary - but it can still be bought off with the territory of Bukovina.
Good points!

Thus, what about having Russia step in on Hungary's behalf only to betray Hungary later on if necessary? After all, if Russia intervenes on Hungary's behalf, wins the war, and then decides to allow its allies Serbia (which probably still wants Vojvodina even if not a main priority) and Romania conquer some Hungarian territory for themselves, what exactly is either Hungary or anyone else going to be able to do about this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, though, what about this--allow Austria to fully crush Hungary and to weaken itself in the process and only then come up with some excuse to go to war with Austria? Indeed, that would allow Russia to support Serbian and Romanian territorial claims in both Austria and Hungary.
 
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