How would a Taisho period Japanese Empire look today?

Imagine a world where Japan's territories remain roughly or exactly the same as they did during the Taisho period, so about 1912 to 1926. This would include Korea, Taiwan, parts of Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, many Pacific islands, and so forth, but does not include Manchuria or the WW2 conquests.

How would the empire look like? (Well, not in terms of territory since I just described them.) How far along could we see assimilation for Taiwan and Korea? How would the government look like? Could it become democratic, or would it remain imperialist or militarist in outlook? Would we see autonomy for the colonies, or would direct annexation continue to the present day? How would such a state interact with its neighbors or on a national stage? How this state look culturally?

EDIT: Discussing the concessions and leased territories in China are a bonus. Anyways, my main focus was on Korea and Taiwan,
 
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the problem is, to keep the empire together, you need to stop japan becoming so agressive and imperialist in their foreign policlies to not join germany in ww2...something that at the time would be largly impossible to stop less theres a major shift in japans internal politics and its military leadership
 
the problem is, to keep the empire together, you need to stop japan becoming so agressive and imperialist in their foreign policlies to not join germany in ww2...something that at the time would be largly impossible to stop less theres a major shift in japans internal politics and its military leadership

This is far from impossible, a major falling out between japanese and german politicians isn't that difficult to occur. Germany could also for some reason see Japan as a bad investment and not want to enter alliance with them, maybe a POD for this would be a less decisive japanese victory against the Russians.
 
This is far from impossible, a major falling out between japanese and german politicians isn't that difficult to occur. Germany could also for some reason see Japan as a bad investment and not want to enter alliance with them, maybe a POD for this would be a less decisive japanese victory against the Russians.


And its not like there werent othere factions in Japan than those that got on top in Otl. Problem being, that one of the arguements of the pro imperialism faction was that Japan could not be dependent of the western powers for strategic resources, as they would us said resources as leverage. This happend in otl.
 
Whether the CP are victorious in the Great War or not, several German schemes are, including the Hindu Conspiracy rebellion in India, creating the decentralized Azad Hind regime, which would be a natural ally of Japan should the British abandon the Anglo-Japanese alliance, and not carry extra baggage as the leader of the Azad Hind movement was not just working with the Germans but was well liked by Lenin and other Bolshevik leaders as well.

One free Asian state makes Pan-Asianism rather than Japanese Chauvanism a more appealing philosophy, and with sincere Japanese assistance and simply butterflies causing alternate events (such as perhaps the spread of the Chinese Anarchist movement convincing the local elites of the need to cooperate with the Republican central government for moderate reforms as per Sun Yat Sen's dream, less they provoke a rise of the peasantry in anarchist revolt) leading to a stronger and more effective Chinese Republic.

Between Azad Hind, the Republic of China, and the Empire of Japan, the Asian powers are in a much stronger bargaining position in terms of the development of local resources and access to outside resources. This prevents the pressing need for a Grand Empire of Japan to secure resources and a sphere of influence.
 
I suspect that a suriving Japanese Empire under the OP terms would be Yamato chauvinist, or, at the very least, show little tolerance for use of Korean or Taiwanese languages. Each part of the Empire would have been fully integrated and represented in the diet. There would be a dominant party system with free, but not always fair, elections being the norm. In terms of a societal economic model, I'd guess this Japan would be similar to either modern Scandinavia or Cold War-era Italy.
 
A stronger China to put Japan back in its place somewhat would be a good POD for this scenario. Japan thought it could walk all over China which encouraged the rise of militarists. If this is avoided then Japan can develop more normally. Everyone wins except for the Koreans who either lose their culture and language or millions of lives fighting a long bloody war of independence.
 
I think the only way for Japan to survive to the present day with Taishô boundaries is for the country to maintain the Taishô period's liberalization and democratization. Reforming the constitution would make it more difficult for the Shôwa war hawks to gain power. Also, without a Great Depression, Japan would likely continue this sort of movement into a more liberal state that considers itself the equal of Europeans (and mimics their imperialist tendencies). It'd be more aligned with Britain, France, and the US than Germany if Taishô trends continue.

The great challenge to maintaining this trend for a century is foreign affairs. Both the Soviet Union and China, whether Nationalist or Communist, won't have good relations with a democratic-imperialist Japan. While most of Japan's colonies likely won't present a problem (being likely about the same as Hokkaidô or Okinawa today), Korea is different. If Korea remains Japanese in 2012, it would be after if not rebellions then riots and rights movements. Perhaps it'd be a semi-autonomous region?

I also like RadioSilence's idea of a stronger China. Anyone have more to say about that?
 

Tsao

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A stronger China to put Japan back in its place somewhat would be a good POD for this scenario. Japan thought it could walk all over China which encouraged the rise of militarists. If this is avoided then Japan can develop more normally. Everyone wins except for the Koreans who either lose their culture and language or millions of lives fighting a long bloody war of independence.

I think this is a good place to start. Any ideas on a specific POD?
 
I think it's very unlikely that the Japanese will successfully Nipponise the Koreans, not least because there were major divisions over whether it was a desirable goal. In the absence of the Koreans becoming Japanese there is bound to be a independence movement and Taisho democracy isn't democratic enough to let them go so that a major source of instability.
 
I have to admit it looks to me, from everything I've ever heard about Japanese society and history, that in Korea at least Japan is going to be on a collision course with deep-seated Korean pride and identity. The problem here is that the Japanese, in the most liberal and tolerant configuration imaginable, are still going to assume their own innate superiority and see Korea at best through the lens of "progress=becoming more Japanese." The Koreans won't go for it.

The best evidence we have of the greater Empire having some potential for stability is Taiwan; the Japanese regime there did experience some serious unrest but compared to the usual reputation they picked up in conquering still larger swathes of Asia, the Taiwanese did by and large make their peace and were an integral and actively patriotic part of the Empire during WWII. The thing is, that peace was again very largely on the terms of the Taiwanese accepting increasing integration into Japanese norms. In linguistic and cultural terms, Japanese was becoming increasingly dominant, and in political terms Taiwan was becoming more represented via members of the Diet in Tokyo being admitted from Taiwan.

Korea would be different; the best evidence we have is that Japan would at best try the same tactics of "acceptance via assimilation" that were working for them in Taiwan, but these tactics would show much less sign of "progress" from a Japanese point of view.

To hold Korea without the need for ongoing overt oppression, Japan needs to come to terms with the notion that the Koreans are a different people with their own history and dignity and they aren't going to merge smoothly and submissively into Japanese culture.

All this said I know of at least one unfortunately short-lived and fragmentary timeline that simply assumed the results the OP wanted to see, and it was quite interesting. Of course part of the interest for me was trying to see how the author proposed to explain the Empire lasting as a stable entity into the 2000s and beyond, and unfortunately the author seems to have dropped it without getting around to these explanations.:(

It wasn't a normal timeline story either; it was about aircraft getting exchanged in a sort of coupled ISOT incident between our timeline and theirs, so a jet from the Imperial timeline lands at OTL Vancouver, and shenanigans ensue. We learned that Taiwan and Korea were indeed still in this Empire and that it didn't extend much if at all beyond the bounds of OTL 1930 or so, either they never got into any later wars with major powers or these wars ended without dramatic changes to the Empire, one way or the other.

So I was left to speculate how and why this comes about.

The best I could do, and thus the best I can recommend here, is that the POD is a subtle one in Meiji times, having to do with the exact nature of the Constitution adopted which strengthens the hands of liberals and somewhat restrains the tendency toward militarization. But I don't know to what extent stacking the deck in favor of moderation would, if successful, mean the Japanese refrain from their efforts to acquire control of Taiwan and Korea in the first place! I suppose that's why someone upthread suggested a later reform--things go on OTL tracks until after these have been taken and then someone sees the light. But if there's to be hope that restraint will prevail, I suspect the institutional checks have to be pretty deeply rooted.

And to have some sort of peace in Korea, something needs to have happened to knock a sense of respectful tolerance of diversity into Japanese heads, and to conciliate Korean pride and dignity to accepting continuned Japanese leadership.

Is there any reasonable way the initial entry of Korea into the Empire can be by a more mutual process? Can our "Taisho" Japan actually be some kind of dual monarchy?
 
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I was watching a lecture online from some guy that stated that N.Korea's ideology is basically rooted in Japan's imperialism and that they also borrowed a couple of details from the concept of racial purity of Yamato people. So maybe some sort of a oriental "ottomanism" could be in order, preaching togetherness and purity of the peoples of the Empire in general, being the bulwark against any enemy you can think of. That would mean that the Koreans are to be treated as a population on equal footing as the Japanese ( long shot, but still..).
 
creating the decentralized Azad Hind regime

How was Azad Hind 'decentralised'? Bose was a advocate of a centralised Indian state based on Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, which would have included Pakistan and Bengal.
 
I think the only way for Japan to survive to the present day with Taishô boundaries is for the country to maintain the Taishô period's liberalization and democratization. Reforming the constitution would make it more difficult for the Shôwa war hawks to gain power. Also, without a Great Depression, Japan would likely continue this sort of movement into a more liberal state that considers itself the equal of Europeans (and mimics their imperialist tendencies). It'd be more aligned with Britain, France, and the US than Germany if Taishô trends continue.

The great challenge to maintaining this trend for a century is foreign affairs. Both the Soviet Union and China, whether Nationalist or Communist, won't have good relations with a democratic-imperialist Japan. While most of Japan's colonies likely won't present a problem (being likely about the same as Hokkaidô or Okinawa today), Korea is different. If Korea remains Japanese in 2012, it would be after if not rebellions then riots and rights movements. Perhaps it'd be a semi-autonomous region?

I agree. A continuation of the Japanese Empire would not occur in a vacuum. The same anti-colonialist sentiments that led ultimately to the decline of the Euro-American colonial systems would also affect Japan, eager to assume its place in the liberal sphere. Korea would almost certainly become independent over time. As noted, potential conflicts with Russia and China would impact how (or it at all) Formosa, Sahkalin and the Kuriles would be granted independence or autonomy. My guess would be that Japan would be much more willing to grant Formosa independence than see it reabsorbed by China, and this stance would probably be supported by the west if Japan was aligned with them, politically and ideologically. I don't see how Sahkalin or the Kuriles would be let go, since they are adjacent to Japan and that would almost inevitably result in their reoccupation by Russia, or at least falling into the Russian sphere. The other small Pacific Islands would probably be given autonomy or full independence in the same manner the USA treated its post 1918 acquisitions.
 
I've seen it suggested by other posters in this thread, and I'll say it here: I think that the best way to prevent Japanese militarism and allow the Taisho period of liberalization to continue into the '30s and beyond would be to make Japanese victory in the Russo-Japanese War less decisive. Japan's victory disease never sets in, meaning that the warhawks aren't as influential. With Russia still a force on the mainland, Japan becomes obligated to treat Korea with a lighter hand than in OTL, keeping it as a sphere of influence rather than annexing it directly. Find a way to maintain the status quo through today, and you've got a Japan that is composed of OTL's Home Islands plus southern Sakhalin, Taiwan and some Pacific possessions at the very least, with Korea as a loyal ally.

One stumbling block I see here, though, is the scarcity of industrial resources on the Japanese Home Islands. Southern Sakhalin and an allied/puppetized Korea will alleviate this somewhat with regards to coal, but that's just one resource out of many. Japan's gonna need to get those resources from somewhere. One way out of this that I see, and which would flow out of a less decisive victory against Russia, would be for Japan to focus on naval power in the Taisho period and beyond. The fact that Japanese military power was channeled into the army and invading China was, in my opinion, the single greatest missed opportunity in modern Japanese history. They're an island nation with scarce resources that's a stone's throw away from not one, but two great land powers; instead of fighting a futile battle to establish hegemony over China, they should've just secured Korea and developed a powerful navy to both protect the Home Islands and wrestle some colonies from the other Asian powers. Given that this would also be a more liberal Japan we're dealing with (weakening the militarists will do that), they'd also look to support some of the independence movements in the Asian colonies rather than just going to war outright. Even in OTL, they had pretensions of their empire being an anti-colonial bloc; maybe this time they'll actually practice the "co-prosperity" that they preached?

The ultimate result would be a Japan whose physical land area isn't much greater than in OTL, barring the addition of Taiwan, southern Sakhalin, some Pacific outposts and possibly Hainan. They would be establishing their empire in a time when anti-colonial movements in existing colonies were gaining strength, and in the long term, they'd face the same problems that the British, French and Dutch did if they tried to hold places like Malaya or Indochina. Rather, given the increased liberal tilt of TTL's Japan, they'd use anti-colonialism as a tool to get toeholds in many colonies (except those of their allies, obviously), offering independence movements a number of perks if they aligned themselves with Japan... as long as, post-independence, they accept things like permanent Japanese bases on their soil and Japanese companies getting the right to freely operate in their countries, of course. The result is an East and Southeast Asia that, barring China, looks a lot like OTL's Latin America around the same time, a collection of nominally independent states that are in fact largely puppets/colonies in all but name.
 
I think this is a good place to start. Any ideas on a specific POD?
Have the KMT get the country under control faster. There may very well still be warlords or a military dictatorship later on, but a united China can avoid having to contend with its own people and send bigger troop concentrations to a place should Japan try to threaten it. Manchuria, for instance. Let's say something akin to the "Northern Expedition" happens, ostensibly to quell a warlord but with the intent of kicking out foreign influence. This does not go down well with the Japanese and they send in troops. The result is a bloody stalemate and Japan backs down, having gained nothing in the war despite inflicting heavier losses.

But an easier PoD that doesn't involve having to engineer a different Chinese TL would be to have Japan be friendly with the KMT. In 1905, Japan backed a rebellion by Sun Zhongshan, but for some reason was forced to withdraw their help and the rebellion failed. Had the rebellion indeed succeeded, China (KMT) and Japan could, at least for a significant period of time, stay friendly with each other. The KMT could take a very pan-Asianist stance, and thus satisfy Japan's wish that China not be colonized by Western nations and used to threaten Japan. At the same time it would allow the Japanese, as fellow Asians, to set up shop in China.
 
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