How would a surviving ERE affect the Middle East up to modern day?

Respectfully disagree. Monophysite divisions did indeed exist but the Levant as a core Arabic region is still another few centuries away. A strong Christian presence endured even into late Ottoman times when many immigrated to Colombia and elsewhere. Byzantine interests in Sicily and Tripolitania will probably cause them to be more interested in areas of Northern Africa many other powers might write off initially, but if they can secure the trades routes to the sub-Saharan gold or have a copy of Ptolemy's original world map, maybe they find more than initially expected.
If the Romans were even remotely strong enough they would have long since made attempts to reconquer the Levant and Egypt. Basil II’s reign was the peak Eastern Roman Empire after the Caliphate’s rise in the 7th century. Basil II was never able to take the levant. Ioannes Tzimiskes and Nikephoros Phocas two of the greatest military leaders in Eastern Roman history were never able to come close to retaking Egypt or the Levant.


Why the would they go back to North Africa of all places? Logistically that makes no sense. This isn’t the 7th century when Roman Carthage was a thing. The Berbers would be there and this fight away from Roman supply lines would be grinding and difficult.

Maybe the Normans have a chance during the 8th crusade but not the Romans.

Saharan gold or have a copy of Ptolemy's original world map, maybe they find more than initially expected.
Ptolemaic trade routes? Those have long since been dead for centuries. This isn’t the same Egypt of Cleopatra. All this talk about taking Egypt and the Levant makes no sense based on Roman history. Real life isn’t like a Paradox game where you can simply paint the map.

The reason for retaking Anatolia is to get to the defensible Taurus Mountains. This was how the Romans held off the Caliphate for centuries. They whittled down raiders using the natural defenses and then with the main field army, attacked the reduced foe. The Turks were an existential threat to the Romans as they were so close to Constantinople. The Romans can’t go to distant lands like Anatolia with such a threat miles away from your doorstep. If the Byzantines dumbly send the bulk of their fleet and army to Egypt or Syria, the Turks would use this chance to attack. Heck during the Wars where Nicea fought the Latins, the Turks almost crushed the Niceans. They were saved by the Sultan’s death. Had the Turks had a string of competent rulers, they too could have taken chunks of Anatolia.
 
If the Romans were even remotely strong enough they would have long since made attempts to reconquer the Levant and Egypt. Basil II’s reign was the peak Eastern Roman Empire after the Caliphate’s rise in the 7th century. Basil II was never able to take the levant. Ioannes Tzimiskes and Nikephoros Phocas two of the greatest military leaders in Eastern Roman history were never able to come close to retaking Egypt or the Levant.


Why the would they go back to North Africa of all places? Logistically that makes no sense. This isn’t the 7th century when Roman Carthage was a thing. The Berbers would be there and this fight away from Roman supply lines would be grinding and difficult.

Maybe the Normans have a chance during the 8th crusade but not the Romans.


Ptolemaic trade routes? Those have long since been dead for centuries. This isn’t the same Egypt of Cleopatra. All this talk about taking Egypt and the Levant makes no sense based on Roman history. Real life isn’t like a Paradox game where you can simply paint the map.

The reason for retaking Anatolia is to get to the defensible Taurus Mountains. This was how the Romans held off the Caliphate for centuries. They whittled down raiders using the natural defenses and then with the main field army, attacked the reduced foe. The Turks were an existential threat to the Romans as they were so close to Constantinople. The Romans can’t go to distant lands like Anatolia with such a threat miles away from your doorstep. If the Byzantines dumbly send the bulk of their fleet and army to Egypt or Syria, the Turks would use this chance to attack. Heck during the Wars where Nicea fought the Latins, the Turks almost crushed the Niceans. They were saved by the Sultan’s death. Had the Turks had a string of competent rulers, they too could have taken chunks of Anatolia.

Client States. seljuks and turkish beyliks controlling central anatolia was weak vs a Strong ERE.

Taking Central Anatolia is ideal but isnt the only possibility. Taurus and anti taurus mountains arent the only mountains in Anatolia. They were also a drag to the treasury.

Going from Ankara to Western Anatolia or from Konya to Smryna any Seljuk army still got to go thru rugged terrain and mountains. before that, the seljuks go to thru ERE forts inside central Anatolia.

Even Otl Manuels time he considered the Seljuks a vassal similar to Cilicians and Antioch except Seljuks won their rebellion in 1170s from Ere point of view. it is the primary reason why Manuel didnt sack Konya when the Sultan was kowtowing before him in Constantinople and Manuel went campaigning elsewhere other than Central Anatolia.
 
A few things

1) Regarding Hungary - I'm not convinced, that it serves the Romans well to leave Hungary alone long-term. They want them either as an ally, or part of them, and depending on the PoD, that could be relatively easy (it wouldn't be the first time that a future King of Hungary was named Heir to the Roman Empire). The Ottomans did that with the Girays of Crimea, we could see the Romans sign a treaty with Hungary that binds Hungary to the Orthodox Church (yay for Orthodoxy) but in exchange they become the Second Family of the Empire, effectively the heir-apparent. So I think a Romano-Hungarian union is a strong possibility.

The reason for all that? Just as Anatolia is important for the Taurus, Hungary is important for the Carpathians. They make a stronger border than the Danube, and create incredible defence in depth for the rest of the Empire.

2) Middle East / Southern Strategy

Anatolia needs to be secured, fullstop. End of Story.But you've got that.

Syria - Going south is dangerous, depending on how you do it. If you stick to the coast, behind the mountains? That'd be sensible, mostly. But it still leaves a very long border for a very thin strip of land behind the Syrian Coastal Mountain range (also known as the Bargylus). It is however the best land in the area. You could go down here, but I can only imagine that it'd be costly to defend unless you can secure inland cities. Perfect example is Damascus - it effectively is a lynchpin for a Levantine strategy, as its strong and wealthy enough to provide a base for invading the Levant. I wouldn't recommend this route, not until its either very easy, or the Romans are doing incredibly well.

Egypt - unless you have a politically secure Syria/Levant, Egypt is a massive gamble, for at best an at-risk navally-reached province, or more likely, effectively a puppet state/vassal. It is a hell of a risk, but the reward could be massive if the internal politics can be stable.

If you wanted to get Syria and Egypt, as this Empire, if I was your Roman Emperors, I'd be entirely supportive of Crusade after Crusade going after Egypt and Syria. Completely break it down, there is a chance the Crusaders get their acts together and unite, which is a different problem, but once Anatolia is secure, a divided Levant, Damascus, Egypt are great targets.

3) Highlands Strategy

Caucasus - This is messy, but good. It also ties into Anatolia via the Armenian Highlands, which I would assume you'd want to secure anyway to solidify the eastern border. The region is easily accessed by sea post-conquest via the Black Sea, and is great for a NE border territory, and easily defended from that direction. Your problem is your exposure to the Iranian Plateau, and Mesopotamia. Rather than just the Taurus, you also have the Zagros and Anti-Taurus to worry about. However this does give you the advantage that if you did go into Syria, you have the ability to come from three directions, or at the very least two and have an army that can bring the front quickly into Mesopotamia, rather than Syria. In fact this was done in an Age of Miracles as a strategy to address a strong Ottoman Persian Empire.

4) Western Strategy (I think this is the most relevant)

South Italy - as mentioned, the Normas are a pain, getting the region secure is a good flank, and allows the Romans to position a Navy to take control of Mediterranean trade. Not the most important unless the Romans are opening more trade between the Middle East and Europe. What it does do however is provide access to the most important targets, Africa, and the Straits.

North Africa - I would expect the Romans would want to be able to control access into the Mediterranean, much as they control access to the Black Sea. This means a strong base in Gibraltar, Ceuta, or Tangiers (using a mole if needed). Securing South Italy gives them strong control over the Med itself, but not control over the Western Med. Taking North Africa, rather than Egypt, is still a naval jump, but is also less vulnerable to the rest of the Middle East. Plus, assuming it isn't butterflied away, this is a hotbed for piracy in the Western Med, and so the Romans could negotiate some assistance under the guise of ending Piracy, which ties nicely to securing Roman logistics. They need to learn how to fight in the region again, especially some sort of Desert Cavalry to secure the frontier, but taking the coast opens the Atlantic to the Roman world, and if it can be secured, locks the Romans as a prime power to rival Spain, Britain, and France during this time (in terms of interests, at this point the Romans would be likely stronger than any of these individually, or too fragile to persist at this level, situation permitting).

At which point the Romans can really start looking at the rest of the world. Get in on Colonisation. Address the Papacy. Respond to the Reformation in a way to serve Roman interests. Etc. It could be as simple as the Romans and English allying to ruin Spanish interests. The Romans might get interested in securing West Africa. There are still loads of other problems - notably, securing the Sahara, and the Western Strategy still hasn't addressed the European, Middle-Eastern or Highlands concerns at all.

The only thing I think you need to address is well, Russia. I don't mean all of Russia either, I specifically mean the Ukraine, Crimea, and Circassia. Those are frontiers for the Romans, and the Russians, the two major Orthodox powers. If you have Cossacks rise, do they pick sides? Do the Romans effectively rule (on paper) a large Cossack Nation on their northern border? How relevant are they? Does the Ukraine replace Egypt as the Breadbasket of the Empire? Or are the Cossacks able to use the Romans and Russians against each other to create an early Ukrainian Hetmanate (or equivalent)?
 
A strong ERE can hold Greece and Anatolia along with Thrace and Macedonia, in the long term. This is reasonable.

Syria, Judea and Egypt are difficult for many factors. These weren't Romanized regions, for starters. They had their own Church, Language and customs. Forcing Romanization simply isn't possible especially if it involves changing their religion. Pagan Romans and Greeks respected all religions and cultures and hence, could flourish in these regions like that.

Byzantines seriously need to rethink their policies and strategies if they want Levant and Egypt, along with the Arab Muslim populated regions. They need a more open and secular minded religious policies.
 
Syria, Judea and Egypt are difficult for many factors. These weren't Romanized regions, for starters. They had their own Church, Language and customs. Forcing Romanization simply isn't possible especially if it involves changing their religion. Pagan Romans and Greeks respected all religions and cultures and hence, could flourish in these regions like that.
This is largely a myth. Pagan Rome practice religious syncretism in trying to connect their pantheon to various other relate the to the Roman Pantheon. They did this in Gaul for example. There was also the Imperial cult as well. Anyone who obejcted to viewing the emperor as a deity was persecuted (the most famous examples being Christians and Jews).

The Romans tolerated other faiths as well. The Coptic Church was left unmolested as was the Armenian Apostolic Church. Also the Romans recruited captured Arab Soldiers and made a whole ceremony for them. They even built mosques in the Capital for them. The Muslim Arab soldiers of the Caliphate were praised for the effort they put to defend Constantinople during the 8th century siege. Jews within the Empire had a legal status unlike in Western Europe. In Spain it was convert or die while in Rhomania they had legal status. When the Latin Venetians and French took the city during the Fourth Crusade they started attacking Mosques and the Muslim quarter in Constantinople. The native Romaoi fought side by side with the Muslims in defense of the city against the foreign Latins.

There was no concept of separation of Church and State. In the old Roman world religion was considered as a part of the state.e Eastern Roman policy is a continuation/evolution of Roman tradition. This idea of separation between Church and State was only really pioneered in the West thanks to the Investiture controversy between the Pope, Holy Roman Emperor, and various other European Kings. Kings seeking independence from the Pope and greater control over the state "secularized" by shifting power away from the Pope. Thanks to Empire, the relation between Patriarch and the Basileus was clearly defined. This wasn't true in the West where the Pope also acted with Secular authority with his Lordship in the form of the Papal State.
 
This is largely a myth. Pagan Rome practice religious syncretism in trying to connect their pantheon to various other relate the to the Roman Pantheon. They did this in Gaul for example. There was also the Imperial cult as well. Anyone who obejcted to viewing the emperor as a deity was persecuted (the most famous examples being Christians and Jews).

The Romans tolerated other faiths as well. The Coptic Church was left unmolested as was the Armenian Apostolic Church. Also the Romans recruited captured Arab Soldiers and made a whole ceremony for them. They even built mosques in the Capital for them. The Muslim Arab soldiers of the Caliphate were praised for the effort they put to defend Constantinople during the 8th century siege. Jews within the Empire had a legal status unlike in Western Europe. In Spain it was convert or die while in Rhomania they had legal status. When the Latin Venetians and French took the city during the Fourth Crusade they started attacking Mosques and the Muslim quarter in Constantinople. The native Romaoi fought side by side with the Muslims in defense of the city against the foreign Latins.

There was no concept of separation of Church and State. In the old Roman world religion was considered as a part of the state.e Eastern Roman policy is a continuation/evolution of Roman tradition. This idea of separation between Church and State was only really pioneered in the West thanks to the Investiture controversy between the Pope, Holy Roman Emperor, and various other European Kings. Kings seeking independence from the Pope and greater control over the state "secularized" by shifting power away from the Pope. Thanks to Empire, the relation between Patriarch and the Basileus was clearly defined. This wasn't true in the West where the Pope also acted with Secular authority with his Lordship in the form of the Papal State.

Is your view that Byzantium tolerated all faiths within its borders? If so, what is your opinion on the Paulicians who so harried by Byzantine persecution, they joined the Abbasids as levies and series of militia used by the emirate of Malatya to wage ware upon Byzantium. As John Julius Norwich noted, Byzantium could have created strong and loyal buffer zones with the Abbasids had they supported many of these heterodox or blatantly Gnostic religious groups in the east, who were the object of intense persecution in the Abbasid period (aside from the Paulicians due to their martial utility.
 
Is your view that Byzantium tolerated all faiths within its borders?
No not really. My point was that they were more tolerant compared to their contemporary powers.

If so, what is your opinion on the Paulicians who so harried by Byzantine persecution, they joined the Abbasids as levies and series of militia used by the emirate of Malatya to wage ware upon Byzantium.
The Paulican issue was a mistake on the part of the Romans during the Iconoclastic Era. Basil I had to deal with a mass uprising of Paulicans. There were other periods of persecution depending on the Emperor in charge. Alexios I Komnenos was a bit of zealout and executed Bogolomists as far as I'm aware.

As John Julius Norwich noted, Byzantium could have created strong and loyal buffer zones with the Abbasids had they supported many of these heterodox or blatantly Gnostic religious groups in the east, who were the object of intense persecution in the Abbasid period (aside from the Paulicians due to their martial utility.
I don't really know why the Byzantines even did this. I generally agree with Norwich here.
 
No not really. My point was that they were more tolerant compared to their contemporary powers.


The Paulican issue was a mistake on the part of the Romans during the Iconoclastic Era. Basil I had to deal with a mass uprising of Paulicans. There were other periods of persecution depending on the Emperor in charge. Alexios I Komnenos was a bit of zealout and executed Bogolomists as far as I'm aware.


I don't really know why the Byzantines even did this. I generally agree with Norwich here.

Byzantine counters against the Abbasids were nullified partly due to this. In 860 CE, the entire Paulician community seems to have been loyal to the Abbasid appointed governors of the Taurus and Armenia and formed possibly a majority and at least plurality of Abbasid northern field armies. This is despite Abbasid persecution of similar Gnostic movements brutally, such as Manichaens, who had by 860 CE, been in the process of outright extermination by the authorities in Iraq. Anyway, this example should be taken into account, the Byzantines did major mistakes regarding religious communities (it is easier to tolerate urbanite Jewish communities, than it is to tolerate insular rural religious conglomerates that are by their nature, fixtures of localism) and pushed these into the hand of their enemies. This can certainly occur in otl with many, many communities in otl. I do not assume the Byzantines will simply treat every rural community well, surely. The Abbasids were unable to do this and they had deeper knowledge and were far more decentralized in their rule than Byzantium.
 
No not really. My point was that they were more tolerant compared to their contemporary powers.

While it's true that there was no large persecution of Monophysite Christians and no armed opposition from the corner in the 600s, there was not very much tolerance in the Byzantine empire if we're looking at the time of Nikephoros Phokas. When he was ranging into Syria he usually expelled or massacred Muslims in the cities that he conquered. Mind you for their part the Hamdanids and Fatimids often retailated in a similar manner, whether that was in response or not. In Crete he was even more brutal and was accused of numerous massacres.

Later Komnenid toleration of Muslims was a pragmatic response to the fact that they were a large portion of the population in the liberated lands in Anatolia and that very dynasty's use of Turkish mercenaries in the Balkans.
 
While it's true that there was no large persecution of Monophysite Christians and no armed opposition from the corner in the 600s, there was not very much tolerance in the Byzantine empire if we're looking at the time of Nikephoros Phokas. When he was ranging into Syria he usually expelled or massacred Muslims in the cities that he conquered. Mind you for their part the Hamdanids and Fatimids often retailated in a similar manner, whether that was in response or not. In Crete he was even more brutal and was accused of numerous massacres.

Later Komnenid toleration of Muslims was a pragmatic response to the fact that they were a large portion of the population in the liberated lands in Anatolia and that very dynasty's use of Turkish mercenaries in the Balkans.

It is irrational to expect a country to tolerate everything or every religion. They will almost always gravitate to, tolerating those that have positive effects to their general state agenda. At the same time, destroying those that go against the general agendas of the state. Byzantium had its break with groups like Paulicians due to the decentralizing nature and localism of these religious movements in the hill country of eastern Anatolia and Armenia. Meanwhile, the Abbasids are the opposite, who are more likely to tolerate these local village and folk religions, yet brutally persecuting intellectually powerful urban movements such as Manichaeism remaining pagan elements in major cities and Gnostic cults.
 
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