How would a Russian Constantinople Work?

[Shawn Endresen]

Neither direct annexation nor personal union was ever the plan. The idea was an independent Greece that included Constantinople with a Romanov on its throne; Alexander II probably relies too heavily on his brother Constantine to part with him, so the choices are Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich (1831-1891) - the victorious army commander, but dimwitted and corrupt; Grand Duke Nikolai Konstantinevich (1850-1918) - officially declared insane, in internal exile for thieving and blasphemy; or Grand Duke Vladimir Aleksandrevich (1847-1909), the Tsar's second son. A tricky choice. It may hinge on which of them, if any, is willing to convert to the Greek rite.

Or the non-Russian powers may demand Nikolai Konstantinevich on the theory that he's least likely to bend to the will of his cousin the Tsar.

 

[Thucydides]

Neither direct annexation nor personal union was ever the plan. The idea was an independent Greece that included Constantinople with a Romanov on its throne; Alexander II probably relies too heavily on his brother Constantine to part with him, so the choices are Grand Duke Nikolai Nikolaevich (1831-1891) - the victorious army commander, but dimwitted and corrupt; Grand Duke Nikolai Konstantinevich (1850-1918) - officially declared insane, in internal exile for thieving and blasphemy; or Grand Duke Vladimir Aleksandrevich (1847-1909), the Tsar's second son. A tricky choice. It may hinge on which of them, if any, is willing to convert to the Greek rite.

Or the non-Russian powers may demand Nikolai Konstantinevich on the theory that he's least likely to bend to the will of his cousin the Tsar.

Really? Do you have a source for this, not to be confrontational or anything but everyone else (and indeed I have heard) that the general idea was annexation of the city.

 

[Shawn Endresen]

Really? Do you have a source for this, not to be confrontational or anything but everyone else (and indeed I have heard) that the general idea was annexation of the city.

Edvard Radzinsky's biography of Alexander II, and he got it from the diaries of Alexander II and Grand Duke Konstantin Nikolaevich and the correspondence between the two?

 

[Intosh]

Let's assume for purpose of argument that Russia advances to, and takes, Constantinople in the 1877-78 war. Leaving aside the other consequences of this massive victory let's assume that Russia takes the city in the peace. The one thing that I have always wondered about how such a thing would be administered. I am assuming that a continuous line of Russian territory down to the city would be impractical. Would it be like Port Arthur or Hong Kong, stranded in the middle of another country?

If Russia had its heart set on Constantinople and actually got it, what would they do with it?

Do your TL included annexations by the Russian Empire in the Caucasus ? For example, a great Armenia or the region around Trebizond where lived the Pontic Greeks ?

If the Ottoman empire suffered a so major defeat that Constantinople is conquered and if the Treaty of Peace is so desastrous that the rest of the European powers accepted that Russia annexed Constaninople, can you gave us more informations about the fate of the Ottoman Empire ?

I predict at least some austrian, british and maybe french annexations and a partition of the Ottoman Empire.

For example, if a big Armenia and a Pontic Greek region is annexed to Russia, you can expected that a part of the armenian population living in Constantinople or in the non-annexed region of the Ottoman Empire staying or moving to Constantinople rather than moving to Armenia. This population will included an urban, educated and middle-class population...

The same for others christian group in non annexed region of the Ottoman Empire, as the protection of the Christians was a russian goal of war, the Ottomans could take revenge against these population... So being a reason for these people going to Constantinople...

 

[John Farson]

Step One: Kick out the Turks
Step Two: Bring in some good Russian colonists
Step Three: Bigger Black Sea Fleet
Step Four: Kill anyone who argues

Step Five: Profit!!!

But seriously, Russia conquering Constantinople (even if only to give it to an independent, pro-Russian Greece with a Romanov on its throne) would pretty much cement Russia's status as the "Third Rome" in the eyes of its subjects, since now the Third Rome has reconquered the Second Rome and expelled/massacred the Turks out of the Balkans. It would be a feat comparable to the Spanish Reconquista.

 

[Thande]

I suspect the Russians would say Constantinople is their capital on paper, but in practice leave most of their government functions in St Petersburg or Moscow. (Yet another idea they could steal from the Dutch )

 

[Russian]

Edvard Radzinsky's biography of Alexander II,

In Russia Edvard Radzinsky is well-known as a good playwright (screenwriter), he is also known as an anchorman and a showman in general.

As a source he is of course better than Dumas or Sir Walter Scott, but he is definitely not a historian.

Yesterday I saw a billboard on a wall 'Edvard Radzinsky is giving a talk on history in a great concert hall' (Russia, Saint-Petersburg).
He is making big buck on history! Good for him!

I suspect the Russians would say Constantinople is their capital on paper, but in practice leave most of their government functions in St Petersburg or Moscow.

I doubt that, but it will definitely be the third most politically important city of the Empire.

 

[yugo91aesop]

Is anyone forgetting what the Treaty of San Stefano called for?? It called for the creation of a Greater Bulgaria as a Russian client state. If Russia had reached Constantinople, Russia would problably annex Romania and Bulgaria to gain continuous territory and maybe even head down all the way to Greece and kick all the OTtoman's out of Europe.

I think the only way for Russia to successfully to this was tor rename their country Slavia and really champion Pan-Slavism. Of course, Romanians and Greeks may not enjoy Russia's suppport, however given the ORthodox connection they may very well over time support Russia.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Slavia would have been a good name, or Slavonia as Russia's new name. Although renaming it Slav(on)ia would have infuriated the Baltic states since they're non Slavic, as well as the Central Asian and Caucasian nations under Russian rule.

 

[Socrates]

Slavia would have been a good name, or Slavonia as Russia's new name. Although renaming it Slav(on)ia would have infuriated the Baltic states since they're non Slavic, as well as the Central Asian and Caucasian nations under Russian rule.

How is it any worse than being part of "Russia"?

 

[WeisSaul]

If Russia took it in 1867, it'd likely have to beat the crap out of Turkey first to keep it. Doing so would leave Rumelia prone to being carved up.

On its own, Constantinople is one the most defensive locations on earth. You really don't need a buffer. As long as you have a shipping route going from Sevastopol and the Ukraine to Constantinople, you have a secure line of supplies going strait from mainland Russia to Constantinople. Plus, in a Russian dominated black sea, nobody is Challenging the Russians. Russia would probably try to take all the Armenian populated regions and everything north of the Pontic mountains, so this will give Russia further dominance in the Black sea

Greece gets Epirus, South Macedonia, Agean, Crete, Dodecanese, and in the long run they'll get portions of Asia Minor. If the Russians are the ones who end up getting Greece all these things, they'll likely become VERY pro-Russian, and Russia gets to pass its ships through the Aegean with ease.

Bulgaria gets north Macedonia and northwest Thrace. They'll end up loving the Russians after an expansion that big.

Serbia gets everything down to Kosovo and complete control over Bosnia.

What's left of Albania will probably just get taken over by Italy.

After a war that leaves the Balkans looking like this, Russia will just end up as the hero of the East, and it will create an Slavic-Orthodox empire, made up of Satellites and Russia proper.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

If Russia took it in 1867, it'd likely have to beat the crap out of Turkey first to keep it. Doing so would leave Rumelia prone to being carved up.

On its own, Constantinople is one the most defensive locations on earth. You really don't need a buffer. As long as you have a shipping route going from Sevastopol and the Ukraine to Constantinople, you have a secure line of supplies going strait from mainland Russia to Constantinople. Plus, in a Russian dominated black sea, nobody is Challenging the Russians. Russia would probably try to take all the Armenian populated regions and everything north of the Pontic mountains, so this will give Russia further dominance in the Black sea

Greece gets Epirus, South Macedonia, Agean, Crete, Dodecanese, and in the long run they'll get portions of Asia Minor. If the Russians are the ones who end up getting Greece all these things, they'll likely become VERY pro-Russian, and Russia gets to pass its ships through the Aegean with ease.

Bulgaria gets north Macedonia and northwest Thrace. They'll end up loving the Russians after an expansion that big.

Serbia gets everything down to Kosovo and complete control over Bosnia.

What's left of Albania will probably just get taken over by Italy.

After a war that leaves the Balkans looking like this, Russia will just end up as the hero of the East, and it will create an Slavic-Orthodox empire, made up of Satellites and Russia proper.

What would a caucus belli be for a Russia that goes to war against Turkey in 1867?

 

[WeisSaul]

What would a caucus belli be for a Russia that goes to war against Turkey in 1867?

Typo, I meant 1877 like the OP wrote.

 

[Know Nothing]

If you're looking for a scenario where Russia simply topples the Ottomans, 1829 is the best choice as Constantinople is at its mercy yet the general suspicion Britain, France and Austria held towards their intentions is not yet completely ingrained.

So instead of the 1829 Treaty of Adrianople, the Russians push on to the undefended Constantinople and topples the sultan. Nicholas pushes for a "free" city of Tsargrad. Of course, general European war may result...

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

If you're looking for a scenario where Russia simply topples the Ottomans, 1829 is the best choice as Constantinople is at its mercy yet the general suspicion Britain, France and Austria held towards their intentions is not yet completely ingrained.

So instead of the 1829 Treaty of Adrianople, the Russians push on to the undefended Constantinople and topples the sultan. Nicholas pushes for a "free" city of Tsargrad. Of course, general European war may result...

It's also a good timing as the Greek War of Independence is heating up. Possibly an earlier independence of Bulgaria and Serbia would be in the cards, as well as Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia.

 

[Know Nothing]

It's also a good timing as the Greek War of Independence is heating up. Possibly an earlier independence of Bulgaria and Serbia would be in the cards, as well as Montenegro, Albania and Bosnia.

Even better for Russia, the major technological changes that incapacitated their effort against Britain, France and the Ottomans 25 years later have not yet occurred to the same extent so they can still semi-adequately survive with an 1812 mindset.

And the French army hasn't yet been battle tested in Algeria yet.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Even better for Russia, the major technological changes that incapacitated their effort against Britain, France and the Ottomans 25 years later have not yet occurred to the same extent so they can still semi-adequately survive with an 1812 mindset.

And the French army hasn't yet been battle tested in Algeria yet.

Would toppling the Ottomans also end up setting in motion the independence movements of the Assyrians, Arabs, Kurds and Jews within the Ottoman Empire? If Russia is aiming at building an Orthodox Empire, could they also aim at incorporating the Orthodox Churches based in Alexandria, Antioch and Jerusalem? I can guess that even Ethiopia might be drawn into the Russian orbit.

 

[Know Nothing]

Would toppling the Ottomans also end up setting in motion the independence movements of the Assyrians, Arabs, Kurds and Jews within the Ottoman Empire? If Russia is aiming at building an Orthodox Empire, could they also aim at incorporating the Orthodox Churches based in Alexandria, Antioch and Jerusalem? I can guess that even Ethiopia might be drawn into the Russian orbit.

Russia's only hope to accomplish all of this would be that Britain, France, Austria, Mehmet Ali's Egypt, Greece and Persia are drawn in by the scraps into a general partition, and then they fall out and clash to Russia's benefit.

The problem is that Russia could fill the role that Bulgaria filled in the Second Balkan War, because they will be by far the biggest winner and thus the obvious target.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Russia's only hope to accomplish all of this would be that Britain, France, Austria, Mehmet Ali's Egypt, Greece and Persia are drawn in by the scraps into a general partition, and then they fall out and clash to Russia's benefit.

The problem is that Russia could fill the role that Bulgaria filled in the Second Balkan War, because they will be by far the biggest winner and thus the obvious target.

So maybe not the entire incorporation of the Orthodox Balkan states, but some sort of a primitive version of either the EU or the Soviet Union where all Orthodox nations are welcome to join, sort of like a de facto group led by Russia. Which means the Romanovs would be very busy selecting their family members and intermarrying them with the royal families of those Balkan states.

 

[Know Nothing]

So maybe not the entire incorporation of the Orthodox Balkan states, but some sort of a primitive version of either the EU or the Soviet Union where all Orthodox nations are welcome to join, sort of like a de facto group led by Russia. Which means the Romanovs would be very busy selecting their family members and intermarrying them with the royal families of those Balkan states.

Yeah I cannot claim expertise on the evolving priorities Russia had in the Balkans and Ottoman Asia in the 19th century, so I can't really say much for sure.

But if Russia tries to grab Constantinople in 1829, I think Nicholas will be very cautious on pretty much all other territorial and political demands because the aforementioned Britain, France and Austria will be extremely disturbed if Russia is too ambitious. And even then, as I say above, they might not accept a Russian Constantinople or even a "free city" Constantinople.

I'll defer to other AH members with more expertise, for determining the plausibility.