How would a possible USSR victory in the Cold War come about and result?

[tomiasdesd]

With any POD (or PODs) from 1945 to 1991, what would need to happen for:
- No dissolution of the Soviet Bloc or the Soviet Union
- Socialism in one form or another becomes the mainstream, most common, iddeology
- The USA falls in a similar way to the USSR (divided into several nations) with socialism as ideology

I'd imagine that corruption scandals, separatism, a stronger counter-culture movement, interventionism backfiring, endless bloody wars and ethnic tension would be what need to cause an American collapse, but for soviet survival i dont see a clear path

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

The first and second requirements are possible but I don't think the modern United States can fracture without nuclear war

 

[Crueldwarf]

To avoid USSR collapse within the given timeframe you need basically two things:
1. Remove Suslov from the picture no later than end of the 1960s.
2. Reign in military-industrial complex influence on the country economic development.

 

[AltoRegnant]

The first and second requirements are possible but I don't think the modern United States can fracture without nuclear war

i mean, if there's a military coup or something due to problems arising in the 60s and lasting long into the 80s (similar to the soviets,) it could happen. but it would need to be really, really, really bad. but states seceding after that would make a lot of sense, with regional warfare happening as well.

 

[MUC]

i mean, if there's a military coup or something due to problems arising in the 60s and lasting long into the 80s (similar to the soviets,) it could happen. but it would need to be really, really, really bad. but states seceding after that would make a lot of sense, with regional warfare happening as well.

Precisely, it would take a second civil war in the US in order to bring the nation down and give socialism a chance to gain the upper hand.

 

[Byz]

1945 PoD can still see a lot of changes. More Soviet success in Europe, leading to more influence in Germany and Austria. The US has to go forward with invading Japan, suffering horrific casualties and reducing post war prosperity with less of a baby boom. Stalin dies right after WW2 of a stroke, and the USSR starts down a path towards deStalinization earlier.

Italy could become communist democratically easily enough. Western Europe splits from the US over imperialism, and makes a huge mess of things trying to keep their empires together. This also leads to further communist movements in former colonies as a reaction, sweeping across the world. The US responds by doubling down on right wing coups everywhere, only serving to turn everyone not under their bootheel further against them.

Right wing politicians also taking control of the post war era in the US could undo the New Deal and cause monumental damage to the US economy. Taft is a good option for this, with non interventionism to boot slowing down US action against the USSR. Labor relations worsen as benefits are lost, and tensions rise. A southern Democrat takes over and blocks civil rights, leading to increased racial tensions as well. Throw in an alt vietnam, and by the end of the 60s the US could be reaching a breaking point while the communist bloc has moderated and doing better.

It's still very difficult for command economies to outcompete market economies, but the USSR could outlast the US in such a scenario, and the dominant world ideology is a mix of authoritarian left wing dictatorships in many Soviet puppets, and pink socialist governments in former colonial states.

 

[tomiasdesd]

Taft would be a very interesting president, speciaaly considering he died in 53, so if he had a weak VP it could screw the US over. (considering he was elected in 52)
I dont think its plausible, but someone who would be perfect for this poor leadership thing would be Robert LaFollette Jr, he had great anxiety and depression, was an isolationist with involvement with socialists, he would have an almost entire term to fuck up under pressure (or resign i presume)

 

[Garrison]

With any POD (or PODs) from 1945 to 1991, what would need to happen for:
- No dissolution of the Soviet Bloc or the Soviet Union
- Socialism in one form or another becomes the mainstream, most common, iddeology
- The USA falls in a similar way to the USSR (divided into several nations) with socialism as ideology

I'd imagine that corruption scandals, separatism, a stronger counter-culture movement, interventionism backfiring, endless bloody wars and ethnic tension would be what need to cause an American collapse, but for soviet survival i dont see a clear path

To be clear do you mean Socialism or Communism? The two are not interchangeable. There is a world of difference between the Socialist Labour Party that governed Britain in 1945-50 and Soviet style Communism.

 

[treefreak32]

Matt Mitrovich's breakdown of it is one of the best scenarios I've seen, though it requires some handwaving.

 

[tomiasdesd]

To be clear do you mean Socialism or Communism? The two are not interchangeable. There is a world of difference between the Socialist Labour Party that governed Britain in 1945-50 and Soviet style Communism.

i mean in a somewhat ample way, as including soviet style socialism, maoism, democratic socialism, syndicalism, etc.
In general a non capitalistic (nominally at least) economy.

 

[marktaha]

President Wallace or another isolationist.

 

[tomiasdesd]

Matt Mitrovich's breakdown of it is one of the best scenarios I've seen, though it requires some handwaving.

what is it called so i can look it up?

 

[tomiasdesd]

President Wallace or another isolationist.

would he really last that long, or any isolationist in fact (unless interventionists fuck up in a major way)? i cant really see Wallace winning in 48 for example

 

[athgtq16129]

- The USA falls in a similar way to the USSR (divided into several nations) with socialism as ideology

Just because IOTL the Western victory in the Cold War finished with the USSR imploding does not means that the same will occur to the US.

 

[treefreak32]

what is it called so i can look it up?

 

[Deleted member 177304]

I have a half-baked scenario where Nixon is assassinated by Bremer and then President Agnew botches the Vietnam peace process, resulting in all the societal instability stemming from Vietnam lasing well into the 80s and when coupled with the economic troubles of the late 70s and early 80s, results in the country collapsing in the late 80s/Early 90s. Meanwhile Romanov succeeds Chernenko and reforms the USSR just enough to be functional into the 90s. So basically the USSR doesn't "win" per say but simply outlasts the US.

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

My ideas:

• The Soviet Union underwent reforms which were spearheaded by Alexei Kosygin, a reformist politician whose policies have been pushing forward with the economical reforms to introduce an earlier version of market socialism which reduces the risk of the country falling into an Era of Stagnation but there are problems involving constituent republics within the country but implementing reforms could mean the Eastern Bloc can catch up with the stagnating United States and Western Europe.
• Prague Spring never happens as if the Soviet's reaction went overdrive as it was in the OTL by further crushing or suppressing reforms made by Alexander Dubcek which proved disastrous in the long-term. If the Soviets somehow accept Dubcek's reforms in Czechoslovakia, the rest can follow suit.
• If the United States wanted them to force their European allies to obey, the 1961 coup in France could be an example of scarring the European countries away amidst the waves of decolonization and in fact, the Golpe Borghese never suspended but instead put forward with the purpose of ousting or destabilizing the democratic Italian government.
• Harold Wilson's government in the United Kingdom was ousted by Lord Mountbatten with the American support as the country was gripped by a worsening economic outlook and countless IRA attacks during the peak of The Troubles.
• For the United States, I don't know whether things can either derail the American democratic experiment amid the ongoing Vietnam War as protests were ruthlessly cracked down by the infamous F.B.I. director Edgar Hoover if he's able to survive for another decade.

 

[tomiasdesd]

I have a half-baked scenario where Nixon is assassinated by Bremer and then President Agnew botches the Vietnam peace process, resulting in all the societal instability stemming from Vietnam lasing well into the 80s and when coupled with the economic troubles of the late 70s and early 80s, results in the country collapsing in the late 80s/Early 90s. Meanwhile Romanov succeeds Chernenko and reforms the USSR just enough to be functional into the 90s. So basically the USSR doesn't "win" per say but simply outlasts the US.

agnew was also openly corrupt so that could be also a factor in this

 

[TheCrimsonPaw]

Instead of America collapsing, I think a Communist Revolution in America would be a little more likely.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I can't imagine any way for the USSR to win the Cold War with a post-1945 POD. I can imagine many ways to strengthen and maintain the Soviet-block, but that merely avoids defeat rather than bring about a conclusive victory.