How would a Modern day Ottoman Empire look like?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 67076
  • Start date

Deleted member 67076

Similarly to ArKhan's modern day Byzantine Empire thread, how would a modern day Ottoman Empire be like with a POD in at the earliest 1850 be like? Would it be a great power? How would politics in the Middle East be like? What happens now that they have all that oil under their control? (This is assuming the Empire has at minimum its 1914 boundaries)

You are allowed to use, later PODs, not just that one.
 
Depends if it is still a rump Turkish State or really a pan-Middle East nation. The latter of course would probably be more of a confederation of sorts with the Ottomans having a more spiritual role as the Caliphs rather then an terribly on hands Secular role.
 
With pre-1878 territory, no doubt it will be first world, or at least equal to US, which is first world save for some parts like the deep south. I can see parts like Yemen and Nejd to be pretty backward but doubtfully of any significant influence, while the gulf area will be Ottoman Florida. Conservative power base will be Levant and Anatolia interior, which still isn't that bad compared to Saudi Arabia or Dixieland. Central-East Balkans and Western Anatolia will be the most advanced, plural part of the empire with immigrants from all over the empire and likely also abroad looking for better living, naturally making it the most progressive as well, centered around decadent metropolis of Istanbul. I think this variant of Ottoman Empire will identify itself more with Europe, with others increasingly becoming less capable to deny it with time.

Empire with 1914 territories will probably make it more conservative, less democratic, and military influenced, but it's still be far more liberal then today's republic. Arab population will be seriously influential, borderline commanding, in national politics, especially with the solid majority of oil residing in their area. It still has a great chance to be first world, for sure, but doubtfully a Great Power on the scale of today's China. It will still be very influential and a massive cultural and economic power, though.
 
Last edited:
It would depend mostly on what direction the Ottoman Empire takes.

Ultimately, the fact is that many GPs see the dismantlement, or at least, carving up bits of the OE as a desirable thing, if only because they stand to gain from it. The losses in the Balkans are really a matter of time, the Ottomans simply can't win there; the question is how much they lose. At best, you can have a border a bit further west, and more islands in the Aegean. Possibly even Cyprus, though I doubt it.

The Middle East is a somewhat more interesting question. A significant part of Ottoman rule was the fact that it professed to rule from a multicultural identity (with varying degrees of actual implementation), which helped to bind Arabs to the Empire; the above also applied to the other religious and ethnic minorities of the Empire. Somewhat more material, however, was how the Empire professed to be the ruler of all Muslims; a claim, which, of course, was never completely fulfilled, but which one might say is wide enough if you have all Turks and Arabs.

The loss of Libya and Tunisia to Italy both cements the decline of that ideology, due to the Empire's failure to have protected these Muslims from foreign rule, and the discreditation of this religiou authority in favor of nationalism. It's extremely difficult to prevent that; it's too far from the Ottoman center, and too close to Italy, and Italy is typically in a much stronger position, and has a better international opinion generally.

That, combined with Egyptian autonomy, means that Ottoman control over the Arab peoples is only a question of when. If the Ottomans survive WWI, often represented through a CP victory and Germany propping up the Porte, then their rule over the Near East gets a new, but ultimately, probably temporary lease on life. I really don't see the Ottomans permanently ruling the Arabian Peninsula, or even the Near East.

Now, let's talk about what the Ottomans can keep.

The rise of the Young Turks accompanied by Turkish nationalism will only contribute to the above, but it will also have the effect of cementing Ottoman rule over the Turkic regions proper. If the Ottomans push all the way to the Caspian Sea, they will bring the Azerbaijanis under their rule, and my understanding, which may not be correct, let it be noted, is that there was always some fondness between Azerbaijanis and Turks, based mostly on their closely connected national heritage. If Turkey absorbs Azerbaijan, it could well merge the Azerbaijanis into the Turkish nationality proper. If she dislodges Iranian Azerbaijan, the general region around the city of Tabriz, from Iran and absorbs it into Turkey, she may well keep it as well. In the hypothetical CP victory, while somewhat unfortunate, it is likely that nobody will remember the Armenians. Perhaps Turkey could even gain for itself a favorable border which contains Georgia, which was given to it after Brest-Litovsk. Do note that the same problems which plagued Turkey in Europe are likely to plague her here, but it does help that Georgia is far more removed from European powers than the Balkan countries. It is more likely, if not much. The other Turkic countries, in Central Asia, and Russia, remain a pipe dream, as ludicrous as Pan-Slavist ideology, except without the benefit of having a Great Power of the world actively pushing it.

So, overall, what I see is likely is islands in the Aegean, maybe Cyprus, maybe some minor revisions near Istanbul, and possibly the absorption of Azerbaijan, Iranian Azerbaijan, the lands in-between, basically pushing Turkey to the Caspian Sea. That's the most I can see for the Turkish core territory, which is really the only viable option, as I see it.
 
Curiously from what I've heard, the Arabs living in the Empire were developing a nascent ottoman identity. As such, if the Ottomans survive (preferably but not involving themselves in the war (a difficult thing if the British hijack the ships the Ottoman government purchased)) Then they could cement control over those regions.
 
The only thing to save further loss in Balkans was to not losing against Russia in 1878. It was a close call even IOTL, but Russia had upper hand in the unity of command, which was the only thing Ottoman lacked. Russia had far more resources and man power, but an excessive embarrassment in the front line could've had the invasion called back and it could've saved the Balkans and provided decades for Ottomans to build and strengthen their position there. So Balkans was rather easy to save.

War with Italy was almost avoided since even Italy initially hesitated to war, and their performance back then was terrible, too. Perhaps once the war happens Libya is toast, but only at the time. Had the war happened several years later I'm not sure Italy will have it as manageable, provided it won't coincide with a general European war, but the delay will change things in Balkans and just about everything so who knows.
 
The Italian Conquest of Libya was an interesting enough affair. While Ottoman Rule in the region was always somewhat tepid, especially with counter balancing by the Senussi, the moment the Italians started invading everyone was for the Sultan and the Ottoman and Libyans gave a good fight to the Italians. Almost had a few independent Berber states at one point.

Though I've read the Libyan War could have been avoided if French interests in Tunisia had not forced Italy's hand.
 
What I find more interesting is how much of Iraq, Kuwait and the Gulf would they hold? A lot of oil in Iraq and Kuwait alone.

Say the peace out of WWI early and maintain their possessions (no idea if this is possible). Hold on to Iraq and Kuwait and discover oil. WWII and beyond gets very interesting.
 
With pre-1878 territory, no doubt it will be first world, or at least equal to US, which is first world save for some parts like the deep south.

61497-intake-install-confusion-futurama_fry_looking_squint-jpg

Z
 
What I find more interesting is how much of Iraq, Kuwait and the Gulf would they hold? A lot of oil in Iraq and Kuwait alone.

Say the peace out of WWI early and maintain their possessions (no idea if this is possible). Hold on to Iraq and Kuwait and discover oil. WWII and beyond gets very interesting.

An obvious question: Do they control that oil?

Or is something more like the Anglo-Iranian agreement that is something like 85% of the profits to Britain and the rest to Iran?

For a state that while not on the verge of collapse is certainly shaky enough to be rocked about, that's all too easy.
 
An obvious question: Do they control that oil?

Or is something more like the Anglo-Iranian agreement that is something like 85% of the profits to Britain and the rest to Iran?

For a state that while not on the verge of collapse is certainly shaky enough to be rocked about, that's all too easy.

I suspect it would be all too easy to offer Liberation from the Turkish Oppressor to any Arab movement willing to sign over oil rights...
 
I suspect it would be all too easy to offer Liberation from the Turkish Oppressor to any Arab movement willing to sign over oil rights...

That requires the local Arabs to feel oppressed.

Assuming you don't just mean using it as an excuse to seize territory by the western power.
 
Ottoman Empire will quite likely be an average developed country when it comes to social issues. Ottoman survival will prevent Kemalism, which was what got us Erdoganism today.

I've been thinking about hypothetical Ottoman cinema and popular imagination. Given how capital-centered a state it was, it's likely that life-in-capital genre will be very dominant, not unlike France with Paris or Indonesia with Jakarta, emphasizing decadent urban culture. On the other hand, the said thing will might also popularize dramas about the quaint lives of remote ethnic villagers, which are really popular in OTL Iran (Ottomans certainly aren't short of remote rural minorities). Especially if the majority of the population is urbanized and feels a bit disconnected from the things that made them distinct from Christian Europe in the past.

Another thing would archeology and how popular culture will take it. The lands of Sumer and Hittite will be inside Ottoman territory, as well as Sheba. And should Ottomans occupy it as well, Egypt. Now that's the largest concentration of ancient-classical heritages one can ever ask, and this will be huge boost to Ottoman's classical prestige, compared to Italy with just Rome. Persian culture will get a lot more attention, too, which might lead to something like Indonesia-Malaysia style cultural disputes with Iran, with perhaps more maturity, and certainly global attention.

As for crime genre, I think it will be mainly about Albanian and Slavic gangs.
 
Something fabulous if it means no Erdogan.
So what precisely is so terrible about Erdogan that he deserves to be noted out of nearly 100 years of Turkish prime ministers?

As to answer the main question, I'll simply say that it really depends on what the POD is. With a POD of 1877 or before, there is actually quite a good chance for the Ottomans to be a superpower by 2013. On the other hand, their future prospects do show a decline the later the POD is. That being said, you've still got a potential Great Power on your hands (similar to Japan today) even with a POD in 1914.

Politically, I'm going to bet that it would be at least semi-democratic. Since 1876 there had been elections in the Ottoman Empire, though democratic rule was sparing to say the least. Still, as the Ottoman Empire's population became better educated, it would be hard to fight off the liberal-democratic tide forever, and it is likely that the ruling classes would eventually have to make concessions. Still, a free and fair democracy is by no means guaranteed.

I think Ridwan is largely correct when it comes to the kind of place that Konstantiniyye/Istanbul would have in popular consciousness. It was a very specific set of geopolitical circumstances that led to the shifting of political power to Ankara (and Economic power still stays in Istanbul today). Istanbul is already at the colossal city, and if it was at the head of a large Empire, we could be seeing an even larger city TTL. There would still be other important cities in the Empire, concentrated largely on the Aegean Coast, the Levant and possibly other places such as Egypt, depending on how big the Empire is.
 
Another thing would archeology and how popular culture will take it. The lands of Sumer and Hittite will be inside Ottoman territory, as well as Sheba. And should Ottomans occupy it as well, Egypt.
Well Egypt was still technically a part of the Empire, it was just that it had a lot of autonomy under their Khedives. At least up until the Great War when the British lent on them to declare independence. IIRC Cyprus was likewise meant to still be Ottoman territory but under British rule if that makes any sense. If you can either stop them joining in or being on the winning side that status could well continue, and at that point it only takes a Khedive not to have any sons or simply have the Ottomans powerful enough to depose them and it reverts back to the Empire.

Was Sheba, around Ma'rib I believe, a part of Ottoman Arabia or British Yemen? It looks fairly close to the border that I'm having trouble seeing on the ones I can find with a quick search. The other major archaeological sites they might have could be the Roman remains such as Leptis Magna in Libya if you can avoid losing it to the Italians or find some way to get it back if you do.
 
So what precisely is so terrible about Erdogan that he deserves to be noted out of nearly 100 years of Turkish prime ministers?

As to answer the main question, I'll simply say that it really depends on what the POD is. With a POD of 1877 or before, there is actually quite a good chance for the Ottomans to be a superpower by 2013. On the other hand, their future prospects do show a decline the later the POD is. That being said, you've still got a potential Great Power on your hands (similar to Japan today) even with a POD in 1914.

Politically, I'm going to bet that it would be at least semi-democratic. Since 1876 there had been elections in the Ottoman Empire, though democratic rule was sparing to say the least. Still, as the Ottoman Empire's population became better educated, it would be hard to fight off the liberal-democratic tide forever, and it is likely that the ruling classes would eventually have to make concessions. Still, a free and fair democracy is by no means guaranteed.

I think Ridwan is largely correct when it comes to the kind of place that Konstantiniyye/Istanbul would have in popular consciousness. It was a very specific set of geopolitical circumstances that led to the shifting of political power to Ankara (and Economic power still stays in Istanbul today). Istanbul is already at the colossal city, and if it was at the head of a large Empire, we could be seeing an even larger city TTL. There would still be other important cities in the Empire, concentrated largely on the Aegean Coast, the Levant and possibly other places such as Egypt, depending on how big the Empire is.

Superpower? This implies nuclear power and/or economic power. Care to elaborate?
 
1) Well Egypt was still technically a part of the Empire, it was just that it had a lot of autonomy under their Khedives. At least up until the Great War when the British lent on them to declare independence. IIRC Cyprus was likewise meant to still be Ottoman territory but under British rule if that makes any sense. If you can either stop them joining in or being on the winning side that status could well continue, and at that point it only takes a Khedive not to have any sons or simply have the Ottomans powerful enough to depose them and it reverts back to the Empire.

2) Was Sheba, around Ma'rib I believe, a part of Ottoman Arabia or British Yemen? It looks fairly close to the border that I'm having trouble seeing on the ones I can find with a quick search. The other major archaeological sites they might have could be the Roman remains such as Leptis Magna in Libya if you can avoid losing it to the Italians or find some way to get it back if you do.

1) Depends on the PoD. Britain actually invited Ottomans to occupy Egypt and deal with Mahdi in Sudan, but Ottomans just got tragically defeated in 1878 so they ignored the request. Otherwise, the Ottomans would've gladly accepted the offer.

2) Northern Yemen was Ottoman.
 
Top