How would a German-managed partition of Austria-Hungary look like?

CaliGuy

Banned
Had Germany avoided resuming unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) in early 1917, kept the U.S. out of WWI, and thus ended up with a peace treaty which allowed it to keep its Eastern gains while Austria-Hungary still collapsed (due to the shock that WWI resulted in Austria-Hungary), what would a German-managed partition of Austria-Hungary in 1918-1920 have looked like?

Basically, there were various ethnic groups and countries who competed for various territories in the former Austria-Hungary. Thus, I am wondering as to which countries Germany would have awarded various disputed territories in the former Austria-Hungary in this TL (were Germany to act as an arbitrator in these disputes, which seems likely).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 
A Kingdom of Austria consisting of the Habsburg lands of the Holy Roman Empire before 1526.
A Kingdom of Bohemia consisting of Austrian Silesia, Bohemia and Moravia.
A Kingdom of Croatia consisting of Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia.
A Kingdom of Hungary.
A Kingdom of Poland consisting of Congress Poland and Galacia.

All with Habsburg rulers.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
A Kingdom of Austria consisting of the Habsburg lands of the Holy Roman Empire before 1526.
A Kingdom of Bohemia consisting of Austrian Silesia, Bohemia and Moravia.
A Kingdom of Croatia consisting of Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia.
A Kingdom of Hungary.
A Kingdom of Poland consisting of Congress Poland and Galacia.

All with Habsburg rulers.
A couple questions:

1. Wouldn't Austria and the Sudetenland want to join Germany?
2. Does Hungary keep Slovakia and Transylvania?
3. Wouldn't Ukraine want eastern Galicia for itself?
4. Does Italy acquire any territories when Austria-Hungary implodes?
 
A couple questions:

1. Wouldn't Austria and the Sudetenland want to join Germany?
2. Does Hungary keep Slovakia and Transylvania?
3. Wouldn't Ukraine want eastern Galicia for itself?
4. Does Italy acquire any territories when Austria-Hungary implodes?

Most of the stuff Italy coveted had been part of Austria since the Renaissance. Slovenia would probably all go to Germany here, and Croatia is its own kingdom, so...
 
Yes, I feel like "German Austria" including the Sudetenland and Bozen would join Germany. I'd especially be interested if a younger Habsburg would stay ruler as either King or Archduke.

The rest, however you split them up, would be German allies.
 
Most of the stuff Italy coveted had been part of Austria since the Renaissance. Slovenia would probably all go to Germany here, and Croatia is its own kingdom, so...
He was asking about Slovakia though.
Slovakia would very likely stay part of Hungary. Maybe gaining some autonomy in counties with strong Slovak majority.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Most of the stuff Italy coveted had been part of Austria since the Renaissance. Slovenia would probably all go to Germany here, and Croatia is its own kingdom, so...
Actually, with the exception of Trieste, it appears that Italy's coveted territories were acquired by Austria after 1700:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habsburg_Monarchy#/media/File:Growth_of_Habsburg_territories.jpg

Growth_of_Habsburg_territories.jpg


Also, if Germany outright annexes Slovenia, shouldn't it also outright annex Czechia?

In addition to this, wouldn't a Croatia which encompasses Bosnia and Serbia be a ticking time-bomb?
 
In addition to this, wouldn't a Croatia which encompasses Bosnia and Serbia be a ticking time-bomb?

I don't know. As ugly as it is, it's important to remember that Serbia lost a quarter of its population in World War I, and some CP victories I've seen have events transpire such that that number goes up to one half or worse. They may not be in any shape to cause trouble.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes, I feel like "German Austria" including the Sudetenland and Bozen would join Germany.

Agreed.

I'd especially be interested if a younger Habsburg would stay ruler as either King or Archduke.

What about keeping Karl in place, but with him ruling the Austrian part of Germany?

The rest, however you split them up, would be German allies.

Agreed; however, it is the exact nature of this division which I am curious about.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
He was asking about Slovakia though.
Slovakia would very likely stay part of Hungary. Maybe gaining some autonomy in counties with strong Slovak majority.
Would the same also be the case for Transylvania?

I don't know. As ugly as it is, it's important to remember that Serbia lost a quarter of its population in World War I, and some CP victories I've seen have events transpire such that that number goes up to one half or worse. They may not be in any shape to cause trouble.

Good point; however, I was thinking in terms of the long(er)-run here.
 
Galicia would be split between the Ukrainian and Polish puppet states. Since Germany tended to favor Ukrainian nationalism and keeping Poland extra small, the new border will probably run west of Lviv/Lwow, and maybe even a bit west of OTL's Polish-Ukrainian border.

Austria and Sudetenland would be attached to Germany. The inner Czech lands would be partially self-governed but subordinated to Germany one way or another. Slovenia will almost certainly be attached to Germany. Italy might acquire some minor territories.

Germany expressed some interest in taking over Catarro and/or Ragusa for itself, while Austria-Hungary was still alive and breathing; it may annex those Adriatic ports for itself.

Hungary would become an independent kingdom under some Habsburg, without losing any of its pre-war territory. I don't think the Germans would want to change anything in Transylvania. It's also probably too much to hope they'd support Slovakia, either.
Croatia would be an autonomous unit under Hungarian overlordship; more or less as it was before the war. It would be united with Dalmatia and annex most, if not all, of Bosnia. A thin slice of eastern Bosnia may be attached to Serbia, depending on the circumstances.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Galicia would be split between the Ukrainian and Polish puppet states. Since Germany tended to favor Ukrainian nationalism and keeping Poland extra small, the new border will probably run west of Lviv/Lwow, and maybe even a bit west of OTL's Polish-Ukrainian border.

Agreed.

Austria and Sudetenland would be attached to Germany. The inner Czech lands would be partially self-governed but subordinated to Germany one way or another.

Agreed.

Slovenia will almost certainly be attached to Germany.

You mean through annexation by Germany?

Italy might acquire some minor territories.

Such as the Trentino and Trieste?

Germany expressed some interest in taking over Catarro and/or Ragusa for itself, while Austria-Hungary was still alive and breathing; it may annex those Adriatic ports for itself.

OK.

Hungary would become an independent kingdom under some Habsburg, without losing any of its pre-war territory. I don't think the Germans would want to change anything in Transylvania. It's also probably too much to hope they'd support Slovakia, either.
Croatia would be an autonomous unit under Hungarian overlordship; more or less as it was before the war. It would be united with Dalmatia and annex most, if not all, of Bosnia. A thin slice of eastern Bosnia may be attached to Serbia, depending on the circumstances.

Was Germany really big on keeping Hungary's territorial integrity intact?

Also, would there have been a possibility that Hungary would have outright annexed all of Serbia?
 
A Kingdom of Austria consisting of the Habsburg lands of the Holy Roman Empire before 1526.
A Kingdom of Bohemia consisting of Austrian Silesia, Bohemia and Moravia.
A Kingdom of Croatia consisting of Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia.
A Kingdom of Hungary.
A Kingdom of Poland consisting of Congress Poland and Galacia.

All with Habsburg rulers.


Doubt if all would get Habsburg rulers. The Hohenzollerans would oppose a rival clan being so powerful and internal German politics would be at play as well, It's more likely that the thrones would be handed out to other Catholic German Princes. The Habsburgs can't be totally dethroned and would be likely to keep Austria. Bohemia would also probably be split into Czech, Slovak and Seliesa- smaller countries are easier to dominate and more thrones to hand out
 
I think Germany is going to rub everone's nose in their victory, especially if it's late in the war. Austria proper joins Germany, ditto the Czechs (with some added autonomy maybe), Slovenia and Dalmatia (because of the union with the Austrian crown) and maybe some nibbles of western Hungary. Italy gets nothing, because that's what happens when you switch sides. The rest is up for debate and really depends on how the implosion of Austria actually goes down. If the Hungarians were being real dinks in the end expect the hammer to come down on them and get carved up (but still less bad for them than OTL), but probably not if they weren't. I expect Germany wants to keep Poland as small as possible and partitions the Polish areas heavily towards everyone else (Ukraine, et al). Maybe a Croat-Bosnian state to help keep Serbia down?

My strong suspicion though is that the whole thing is heavily determined by the actual collapse and who-sits-where when everything comes apart.
 
You mean through annexation by Germany?

Yes.
Such as the Trentino and Trieste?

Maybe Trentino, probably not Trieste.
Was Germany really big on keeping Hungary's territorial integrity intact?

I'm assuming they would be, based off Germany's general support for Hungary in past decades.
Also, would there have been a possibility that Hungary would have outright annexed all of Serbia?

That would run against both Hungary's wishes and Germany's preferences for the region.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
As always : a lot depends on (at least some more) details of how A-H- collaps actually happens.

Will there be uprisings in the wake of "vicotry" ? How strong could they be ?
What kind of uprisings ? "just" nationalistic/ethnic triggered or also "red" tainted bolshevistic ?
And when would they break out ? Adfter the "big Peace Treaty" or some time later ?
(Important, as it could effect the amount of (still) present-on-the-spot german military)

How would this "Big Peace Treaty" look alike ? Without Wilsons 14 points and his focus on "freeing all the nationalities" ?

For the point of time the partition might occur :
I would say sometime AFTER the Big Peace Treaty has been signed. Prior to that as being included in the Big Peace Treaty (delaying its conclusion and final sigment) only, if there would have been unrests/uprisings (not due to simple food shortage) inside A-H (not troop mutinies/desertions on(off the front) before the first armistices are concluded/requested.


However, in general I believe the germans would like to have a bigger (with the potential of becoming a stronger ally) Habsburg Monarchy around, perhaps (most likely) with the rightful emperor Karl I. as its head(ing figure).

Despite all this "all-german" talk around this would/should (in german eyes) include all of Bohemia and Moravia, perhaps austrian Silesia after a poll attached to german Silesia. so no "Anschlu?ß" of the Sudeten. They shall be happy enough with improved cross-border trading and other "privileges" (i.e. attending schools within Germany proper). That way - almost - including them into Germany.Not only looks better internationally but also eases administration, what was tricky enough the last ... about 350 years for Habsburg.
Such a "Rump-Austria" (only as a "template") also encompass all/most of Krain (Slowenia) and Istria. The Trentino also ... why the hell should there anything being ceeded to a "looser" ?
Triest ? ... Depending on the "strenght of "uprisings" might become kinda "watched"guarded" Free city. Guarded by Germany :biggrin:.

Slovakia ... Hmm, bit of a "wild card". Lot would depend on when, how and against whom (the austrians or the hungarians) such uprisings would occur and how "strong" nationalistic such uprisingd would be. From independant puppet state to part of Hungary or part of Vieanna-Monarchy IMO everything's in the ropes.

Poland will get "german-polish" solution (therefore under quite strict control by the germans), including Congress Poland and Galicia probably up to Lemberg in the East. The "rest" of Galicia will be ceeded to the germans "new friends/favorites" in Kiew, as well as the karpato-ukraine and the Bukowina. ... latter could also partially go to Romania.

@Halagaz haven't learnd anything yet aount such german claims on Catarro and/or Ragusa. Interesting piece of info. THX :).Possibly some "solution" as proposed for Triest, or some "lease" Macao/Hongkong-style.

The fate of Hungary and its "land empire" over other nationalities ... Beside some "corrections" on the slovakian border (infavor of hungarian minorities) I'm very unsure. Possibly something similar as Hungary looked during Akis-time, though with still larger parts of Transsylvania and the Banat.

Croation, Bosnia, Montenegro, the already carved up Serbia, Albania ... too many possibilities here to speculate upon by me (without further knowledge of the circumstances).
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Had Germany avoided resuming unrestricted submarine warfare (USW) in early 1917, kept the U.S. out of WWI, and thus ended up with a peace treaty which allowed it to keep its Eastern gains while Austria-Hungary still collapsed (due to the shock that WWI resulted in Austria-Hungary), what would a German-managed partition of Austria-Hungary in 1918-1920 have looked like?

Basically, there were various ethnic groups and countries who competed for various territories in the former Austria-Hungary. Thus, I am wondering as to which countries Germany would have awarded various disputed territories in the former Austria-Hungary in this TL (were Germany to act as an arbitrator in these disputes, which seems likely).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

My Guess is they will split it into three parts. The Polish part will go into the new Poland. There is a Hapsburg line married into Polish nobility that is the likely King. Removing the Polish areas will increase the % of Germans in Austria. After this, Germany will likely split the Kingdom into Austria and Hungary. It is the simplest, lowest cost way forward. Then Germany will try to keep the alliance together. Poland and Hungary will likely fear Russia once Russia recovers.
 
My guess is that Germany would keep as much as possible. So all of Austria will be German, including all of Czechia, all of Vierburgenland, including Sorpon and Bratislava, all of South Tirol including Trento. Probably Sovenia, including Triest. Personaly I see no reason why they would give anything to Italy. Galicia would go to puppet Poland and Ukraine. The rest would become puppet Hungary (although I guess, they could create a puppet Hungary and puppet Croatia).
 

NoMommsen

Donor
@pompejus Sry, but ... this is WW1 not 2
Neither Wilhelm II, nor Hindenburg or Ludendorff, though the latter might be still nearest, were Adolf Hitler, not even in combination.
 
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