how would a dominion of west africa develop, what would it be like?

[Sir Coloniser]

the Dominion of West Africa in a timeline of mine "alt cold war"
this a religion map of it circa 1959
blurple = christian
green = muslim
the two together are its territory
i've had some basic ideas about lore for it but I've very little expertise on this area, so I would like some help and information on how this nation could develop
the rough details:
the state is a decentralised federation due to its split up territory
the Orange Order is incredibly powerful within the state with all of the entire Protestant population of the nation being members by law
the state is highly sectarian being heavily divided between Christians and Muslims
support for the Monarchy is almost entirely concentrated in the Christian population
a railway from Dakar to Douala has been built going along the coast, this serves to somewhat unify the nation
Christians form a narrow majority around 51% of the population
Christians possess strong irredentist desires, many seeking to annex Liberia to the federation. other proposed areas of expansion include Benin, Togo and Ivory Coast though support for annexing these areas is weaker
the grand orange lodge of west africa is truly massive covering all of the OTL UN west africa region, it is the largest single grand lodge in the entire order with some twenty million members largely concentrated in the federation and the native population of Liberia
it lies a black sheep among the British dominions in Africa being the only dominion with no significant white settlement and the only dominion with Soley native goverment.
it has deep ties economic ties to the UK and the French union, the Belgian Congo and South Africa are also significant trade partners
the Christian population is highly loyalist
oil is an important sector of the economy
free travel and free trade exists with the French union and the Commonwealth
this about all I've got for it
some stuff I think that would need fleshing out
the nation's culture
the nation's economy
the nation's stability
and just generally what it would be like

 

[Declan]

This country is simply not going to last.
While I admire your zeal for worldbuilding this, the only scenario I can see where the OP comes about is if each territory is ruled by a mini-Stalin in totalitarian manner, only vaguely coming together to present as a united country. But that would also run contrary to the country being a Commonwealth member.

Assuming, the country isn't held together like that, I will pick apart where this country falls apart.

Write off the bat, Senegal is going to annex the Gambia. The Gambia is has quite a lot of ethnic and cultural similarities to Senegal(or at least the parts bordering the Gambia). Their separation is entirely a result of Britain having this one area in the midst of other French colonies. This factor in addition to Senegal's obivously superior position to the Gambia has given rise to a latent irredentism both in the past and now. Given in your scenario of a bitterly divided sectarian state, Senegal would invade and just annex it. Senegal would invade because of their irredentist views but also because as fellow Muslims, the want to protect their fellow Muslims from the Dominion's government.

Second point, your view of West African Christianity is very skewed. Despite these areas being colonized by Britain, Anglicanism is pretty much nonexistent as a branch. Most Christians in West Africa are Pentecostals and other protestant denominations of the like. While technically most Trinitarian protestants are welcomed in the Orange Lodge, the Lodge is pretty much an Anglican dominated institution based out of the British Isles. The Lodge would never grow to have this much influence on its own in West Africa.

I must point out that Sierra Leone is Muslim, heavily Muslim in fact.

To understand what happens to the rest of the Dominion and how politics would go, look to OTL Ghana. In Ghana, the independence activists largely wanted to retain absolutely no role of the UK in the country. Ghana's first president was a Pan-African nationalist with leftist leanings. Such feelings are nearly unavoidable in the Dominion.
Assuming the country gained independence as a Dominion under a protestant loyalist clique, there would be large group of independence activists utterly revolted with this situation. They would see this clique as essentially stealing the hardwork of actual pro-independence politicians and then using it prop up their own rule. In the OTL, there was a vague sense of nationalism that was rampant throughout all of colonial society in the years of decolonization. So considering this fact and the fact many African nationalists were of Christian backgrounds, the Christian population would overwhelmingly against the protestant clique and the Dominion itself; instead of being loyalists. The Muslims would oppose the Dominion for persecuting them.

I would say about 4 years after independence, this country falls apart into civil war; owing to the fact that literally no one supports it and the weak structure of the state. Within a few years at most, this war descends into ethnic war, the Dominion government having been toppled. Many of the countries than make up states of this Dominion had, and have troubles, keeping together such ethnically and religiously diverse countries. So once civil war breaks out, these groups would use it as an opportunity to get their own country.

A lot could happen in this latter phase of the civil war, including regional intervention. I say within 20 years of the Dominion being granted independence, it will be replaced by many smaller ethnic states and a larger Senegal.

 

[Sir Coloniser]

This country is simply not going to last.
While I admire your zeal for worldbuilding this, the only scenario I can see where the OP comes about is if each territory is ruled by a mini-Stalin in totalitarian manner, only vaguely coming together to present as a united country. But that would also run contrary to the country being a Commonwealth member.

Assuming, the country isn't held together like that, I will pick apart where this country falls apart.

Write off the bat, Senegal is going to annex the Gambia. The Gambia is has quite a lot of ethnic and cultural similarities to Senegal(or at least the parts bordering the Gambia). Their separation is entirely a result of Britain having this one area in the midst of other French colonies. This factor in addition to Senegal's obivously superior position to the Gambia has given rise to a latent irredentism both in the past and now. Given in your scenario of a bitterly divided sectarian state, Senegal would invade and just annex it. Senegal would invade because of their irredentist views but also because as fellow Muslims, the want to protect their fellow Muslims from the Dominion's government.

Second point, your view of West African Christianity is very skewed. Despite these areas being colonized by Britain, Anglicanism is pretty much nonexistent as a branch. Most Christians in West Africa are Pentecostals and other protestant denominations of the like. While technically most Trinitarian protestants are welcomed in the Orange Lodge, the Lodge is pretty much an Anglican dominated institution based out of the British Isles. The Lodge would never grow to have this much influence on its own in West Africa.

I must point out that Sierra Leone is Muslim, heavily Muslim in fact.

To understand what happens to the rest of the Dominion and how politics would go, look to OTL Ghana. In Ghana, the independence activists largely wanted to retain absolutely no role of the UK in the country. Ghana's first president was a Pan-African nationalist with leftist leanings. Such feelings are nearly unavoidable in the Dominion.
Assuming the country gained independence as a Dominion under a protestant loyalist clique, there would be large group of independence activists utterly revolted with this situation. They would see this clique as essentially stealing the hardwork of actual pro-independence politicians and then using it prop up their own rule. In the OTL, there was a vague sense of nationalism that was rampant throughout all of colonial society in the years of decolonization. So considering this fact and the fact many African nationalists were of Christian backgrounds, the Christian population would overwhelmingly against the protestant clique and the Dominion itself; instead of being loyalists. The Muslims would oppose the Dominion for persecuting them.

I would say about 4 years after independence, this country falls apart into civil war; owing to the fact that literally no one supports it and the weak structure of the state. Within a few years at most, this war descends into ethnic war, the Dominion government having been toppled. Many of the countries than make up states of this Dominion had, and have troubles, keeping together such ethnically and religiously diverse countries. So once civil war breaks out, these groups would use it as an opportunity to get their own country.

A lot could happen in this latter phase of the civil war, including regional intervention. I say within 20 years of the Dominion being granted independence, it will be replaced by many smaller ethnic states and a larger Senegal.

Sierra Leone has a rebellion in 1958 this results in a Christian majority
Senegal is not independent of France and cannot conduct war without its approval
the Orange order does very well in West Africa for a couple reasons
1) intense islamophobia, very popular in sectarian manners
2) pan protestant nature, the order accepts all protestants into its ranks
3) the order is well armed
4) the order provides Education
PS: the Orange Order is far more presbyterian then Anglican
West Africa's loyalism is more a reaction to Islam than anything else, very violent and very sectarian, if not for the Dominion encompassing all Anglo west Africa it wouldn't have achieved anything close to its success

 

[Declan]

Sierra Leone has a rebellion in 1958 this results in a Christian majority

Ok fine, could work. But Sierra Leone would still have a very large Muslim minority.

Senegal is not independent of France and cannot conduct war without its approval

Technically, it is independent. If a particular Senegalese government won't do so because of heavy French influence within, such a government can be replaced. Deteriorating conditions in the Gambia would fuel a revolution in Senegal, whose sole goal is annexing the Gambia.

Not like France would use it's influence to stop Senegal. Wouldn't impact France's post-colonial ambitions in Africa if Senegal did.

Though I must bring up the point in your OP that the Dominion would have expansionist views with respect to Cote d'Ivoire. I generally don't think this possible since most attention in the political arena would be devoted towards the domestic strife. But if it did, the Dominion would pose a threat to France ambitions. Cote d'Ivoire's first president after independence was a French ally and key person in France's policies towards its ex colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa. So France may even tacitly endorse a Senegalese invasion. As far as they are concerned, it would be knocking the Dominion down a peg or two.

the Orange order does very well in West Africa for a couple reasons
1) intense islamophobia, very popular in sectarian manners
2) pan protestant nature, the order accepts all protestants into its ranks
3) the order is well armed
4) the order provides Education

I still do not think this is going to happen. For points 3 & 4 to occur, the order needs to have a pretty substantial following to begin with.

I can somewhat see what you're train of thought is here, but it is a train derailed. Just because a group of people are Protestant doesn't mean they would be in favour of joinh the order at all. As I said prior, the order is a primarily British thing.

Fundamentally, it is an issue of the people of the dominion having no real reason to join some British organization, even if they share a religion.
Note,: I'm not ragging on the concept of Protestant organization in West Africa itself, just this one particular group. I'll address this point later.

West Africa's loyalism is more a reaction to Islam than anything else, very violent and very sectarian

If the sectarian issue is at that level, the Christians would form their own groups, organizations and parties. This is what I was hinting at above.

Regarding the issue of loyalism, this isn't a black and white issue at all. As I said prior, there would be African nationalists to contend with, who pretty much would have massive support due to the nationalistic undercurrents in post colonial society.

Hard to imagine that Christian groups won't engage in nationalism as well.
So there are more options that loyalism in the Dominion for Christians.

 

[Sir Coloniser]

Ok fine, could work. But Sierra Leone would still have a very large Muslim minority.

Technically, it is independent. If a particular Senegalese government won't do so because of heavy French influence within, such a government can be replaced. Deteriorating conditions in the Gambia would fuel a revolution in Senegal, whose sole goal is annexing the Gambia.

Not like France would use it's influence to stop Senegal. Wouldn't impact France's post-colonial ambitions in Africa if Senegal did.

Though I must bring up the point in your OP that the Dominion would have expansionist views with respect to Cote d'Ivoire. I generally don't think this possible since most attention in the political arena would be devoted towards the domestic strife. But if it did, the Dominion would pose a threat to France ambitions. Cote d'Ivoire's first president after independence was a French ally and key person in France's policies towards its ex colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa. So France may even tacitly endorse a Senegalese invasion. As far as they are concerned, it would be knocking the Dominion down a peg or two.

I still do not think this is going to happen. For points 3 & 4 to occur, the order needs to have a pretty substantial following to begin with.

I can somewhat see what you're train of thought is here, but it is a train derailed. Just because a group of people are Protestant doesn't mean they would be in favour of joinh the order at all. As I said prior, the order is a primarily British thing.

Fundamentally, it is an issue of the people of the dominion having no real reason to join some British organization, even if they share a religion.
Note,: I'm not ragging on the concept of Protestant organization in West Africa itself, just this one particular group. I'll address this point later.

If the sectarian issue is at that level, the Christians would form their own groups, organizations and parties. This is what I was hinting at above.

Regarding the issue of loyalism, this isn't a black and white issue at all. As I said prior, there would be African nationalists to contend with, who pretty much would have massive support due to the nationalistic undercurrents in post colonial society.

Hard to imagine that Christian groups won't engage in nationalism as well.
So there are more options that loyalism in the Dominion for Christians.

Senegal is still a colony, can't make war for Gambia without war with the UK, TTL's commonwealth is far more united, having a common defence policy
the Order was much larger post war OTL then it is now OTL
the Order had vast sway over the Scottish and Northern Irish industrial sectors, two of the largest arms manufactures on the planet at the time. this helps it to procure weapons on a scale that native groups can't compete with.
thanks to war in India, Africa and Indonesia, it is significantly larger
TTL's Orange order goes through significant expansion from 1948 to 1956
this expansion is largely concentrated in Africa and Oceania, the order is doing fairly well for itself off Canadian (1/3 of Canadian men were members at the time) and British goverment money
expansionism is largely because the radicals want to gain a decisive majority in parliament
ethnicity plays a far smaller role then religion, Christianity and Islam serve as unifiers for their followers
the dominion's federalism and incredibly narrow Christian majority is part of what keeps it somewhat functioning
pan africanism is significantly weaker in TTL due to purges, greater local nationalism and ironically, the rebellions striking the continent as many important leaders and thinkers are now behind Communist lines

 

[walmart]

Sierra Leone has a rebellion in 1958 this results in a Christian majority

Sierra Leone is 70% Muslim

 

[walmart]

Write off the bat, Senegal is going to annex the Gambia. The Gambia is has quite a lot of ethnic and cultural similarities to Senegal(or at least the parts bordering the Gambia). Their separation is entirely a result of Britain having this one area in the midst of other French colonies. This factor in addition to Senegal's obivously superior position to the Gambia has given rise to a latent irredentism both in the past and now. Given in your scenario of a bitterly divided sectarian state, Senegal would invade and just annex it. Senegal would invade because of their irredentist views but also because as fellow Muslims, the want to protect their fellow Muslims from the Dominion's government.

If you have Britain act as a guarantor, I don't see Senegal invading.

Assuming the country gained independence as a Dominion under a protestant loyalist clique, there would be large group of independence activists utterly revolted with this situation. They would see this clique as essentially stealing the hardwork of actual pro-independence politicians and then using it prop up their own rule. In the OTL, there was a vague sense of nationalism that was rampant throughout all of colonial society in the years of decolonization. So considering this fact and the fact many African nationalists were of Christian backgrounds, the Christian population would overwhelmingly against the protestant clique and the Dominion itself; instead of being loyalists. The Muslims would oppose the Dominion for persecuting them.

France has a managed to maintain a sphere of influence over Francophone Africa since independence. I do agree that continued Dominion status is unlikely but being part of a British sphere is not.

i've had some basic ideas about lore for it but I've very little expertise on this area, so I would like some help and information on how this nation could develop

I do find this federation quite bizarre given it's members are not geographical connected and have no cultural or economic links with each other.

the Orange Order is incredibly powerful within the state with all of the entire Protestant population of the nation being members by law
the state is highly sectarian being heavily divided between Christians and Muslims

The Orange Order idea is extremely unlikely and the idea of a united Christian bloc at independence.

 

[Genkou]

This set up seems to skip the internal dynamics of such a region. Why would the 30+ at minimum ethnolinguistic groups support this colonial project, I mean if it's still a dominion, it is subject to another power.
Also the Orange Order isn't some Christian or Protestant association, it is a Anglo-Irish relations origin organisation.

Most African colonies didn't have an organic internal structure or cohesiveness, so I wouldn't know where to start with describing such a state.

 

[Declan]

Senegal is still a colony, can't make war for Gambia without war with the UK,

I was operating under the view the dominion gains de facto independence in the the late 50s to early 60s, the same time period that Senegal was and both places are independent when Senegal wages war. Regardless, Senegal would annex the Gambia as soon as possible after independence.

Commonwealth states and dominions have gotten into armed fights before with the UK taking non-interventionist stance. Eg India vs Pakistan 1.0 and Grenada. So it is possible for the UK to not respond militarily.

British military intervention overall is unlikely for a few reasons. One is that they simply won't really care about the Gambia. Since the Dominion is independent, the UK would mostly stop paying attention to what happens next. Senegal taking the Gambia isn't going to make Downing street go into a panic, that's for sure.

Second reason is that it's really hard to defend the Gambia from a Senegalese attack. The only reason the Gambia wasn't under French control is because the UK used diplomacy to get it back.

TTL's commonwealth is far more united, having a common defence policy

Still won't save the Gambia imo.

the Order was much larger post war OTL then it is now OTL
the Order had vast sway over the Scottish and Northern Irish industrial sectors, two of the largest arms manufactures on the planet at the time. this helps it to procure weapons on a scale that native groups can't compete with.

Not really. The Order isn't an official government entity, so any arms it gets from Scottish/Irish factories would be via smuggling. Given the clandestine nature of that, the amount of weapons the Order can precure are rather limited.

Not mentioning the UK won't want a group basically forming a paramilitary right under its nose, so would actively go after the Order as a threat to British security

thanks to war in India, Africa and Indonesia, it is significantly larger
TTL's Orange order goes through significant expansion from 1948 to 1956
this expansion is largely concentrated in Africa and Oceania, the order is doing fairly well for itself off Canadian (1/3 of Canadian men were members at the time) and British goverment money

So I'll just assume the Order is somehow bigger for this ATL before the main POD occurs. Ok.
Don't think all protestants would be forced to part of it however.

expansionism is largely because the radicals want to gain a decisive majority in parliament

France would still consider it a threat.

pan africanism is significantly weaker in TTL due to purges, greater local nationalism and ironically, the rebellions striking the continent as many important leaders and thinkers are now behind Communist lines

Never said Pan-Africanism would be the sole non-Islamic opposition to the Dominion. In fact, the main non-Islamic opposition is simply nationalism. Including local nationalism. Why would people sign up for a complex quasi colonial state with de facto independence when they could just support a Christian dominated republic?

 

[Declan]

If you have Britain act as a guarantor, I don't see Senegal invading.

I addressed this elsewhere, so I'll just repost ky response

Commonwealth states and dominions have gotten into armed fights before with the UK taking non-interventionist stance. Eg India vs Pakistan 1.0 and Grenada. So it is possible for the UK to not respond militarily.

British military intervention overall is unlikely for a few reasons. One is that they simply won't really care about the Gambia. Since the Dominion is independent, the UK would mostly stop paying attention to what happens next. Senegal taking the Gambia isn't going to make Downing street go into a panic, that's for sure.

Second reason is that it's really hard to defend the Gambia from a Senegalese attack. The only reason the Gambia wasn't under French control is because the UK used diplomacy to get it back.

I must bring up the point in the OP where it said the Dominion would have expansionist views towards Cote d'Ivoire. Since the first president of post independence of Cote d'Ivoire was a key ally in France's post colonial policy. So France would definitely see the Dominion as a threat.
In that case, I can see De Gaul tacitly supporting Senegal and interceeding on its behalf in to the UK.

France has a managed to maintain a sphere of influence over Francophone Africa since independence. I do agree that continued Dominion status is unlikely but being part of a British sphere is not.

Being part of the British sphere is possible. But retaining the crown isn't plausible.

Sierra Leone is 70% Muslim

Currently, it is.
But only a few decades ago it was very different.
From what I read, Senegal had a Muslim minority around independence.

I'm guessing Islamic preachers and subsequent wars decisively tipped the balance in favour of Islam.

So a becoming part of a Christian dominated dominion would change that.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I could see it be attempted. Some pan africanist leaders or colonial administrators get a little too excited about radios and air planes and decide that a non-contiguous nation on this scale is not only possible but desirable. How long it would last is pretty much up to the TL's author.

the Orange Order is incredibly powerful within the state with all of the entire Protestant population of the nation being members by law
the state is highly sectarian being heavily divided between Christians and Muslims

If the Orange Order is particularly prominent then the Catholic Igbo and Edo are likely to have a bone to pick with the Dominion Government as well.

 

[walmart]

Commonwealth states and dominions have gotten into armed fights before with the UK taking non-interventionist stance. Eg India vs Pakistan 1.0 and Grenada. So it is possible for the UK to not respond militarily.

I was basing things on the assumption of the UK acting along the lines of France in retaining a sphere of influence in Africa. In situation like in otl, I do agree with you would the UK not getting involved.

 

[Ijon Tichy]

Sierra Leone is 70% Muslim

It also has a long (and still strong) tradition of religious tolerance (really - I've been there, and the attitude really is "who cares? it's not a big deal")