Earlier I posted a PC thread concerning relations deteriorating between the OE and the US in the 1890's.
(This may require a Rockefeller oil investments in the ME POD)
Basically, the killing of American missionaries (in a failed kidnapping attempt by revolutionaries) in Turkey followed by the "accidental" US sinking of an Ottoman vessel abroad leads to record low public opinion on both sides and a gradual cessation of diplomatic and trade relations. With the Armenian tragedies becoming an international scandal, the OE is not popular in world affairs.
While the two sides have little interest in one another's spheres and European nations are keen to settle the differences without conflict, eventually as the US approaches war with Spain, the Ottoman Navy sinks an American vessel (perhaps containing prominent American civilians) causing public outcry.
Then the Spanish-American War occurs on schedule as in OTL, but the Spanish receive (mostly unofficial and limited) Ottoman support. The US; in retaliation for the previous several years of degenerating US-Ottoman relations, in response to the OE's support of Spain being made public, as well as for the Armenian genocide, declares war on the Ottoman Empire.
Now...
Disregarding the less than plausible premise for a moment, and assuming the war with the Spanish is more extensive but not much longer lived (by autumn or winter, the Spanish sue for peace) what types of warfare and what results from that warfare can we expect to see?
My thinking was that the Ottoman-American War (or when spoken about as part of the larger conflict with Spain: The North Atlantic War?) would be principally naval in nature. While the US was on the verge of a naval buildup and the Ottoman Empire was on the verge of naval stagnation and decline, neither nation was particularly ready for a full scale naval war.
I have a few questions (and again, hand wave the criticisms involving plausibility. I'm looking for how such a war would be fought, not whether or not such a war could occur):
1. Where would the main naval theater be located? Would we see the US fleet take the offensive initiative in the Mediterranean? Would the US attempt to strike at Constantinople like the Gallipoli campaign of OTL? Would the result be just as disastrous?
2. In OTL when foreign intervention was used in the OE, various groups became dissatisfied with the Turks and revolted with foreign support. It seems likely that many of these groups would be contacted by the US in order to weaken and distract the Turk's main force with proxy wars and rebellion. In this way, the US could send minimal troops (like in Cuba), select arms, financing, military advisors and volunteer and irregular regiments and keep the main focus on the naval theater and putting boots on the ground near Constantinople.
Could we therefore see the US creating unrest in Arabia? Might the 1st United States Volunteer Cavalry be used in such a way? (Rough Riders in Arabia?)
Could the Hashemites (under Sharif Ali ibn Muhammed) be convinced to revolt and host a constitutional monarchy under US protection, provided they are victorious? Jewish immigration to Palestine was a popular European idea at the time, and if Ali was as liberal as his successors he might have been willing to acquiesce to some degree.
I'm envisioning, if victorious, the US backed Arabs could at best liberate everything to the west of the Euphrates, south of Aleppo, and east of the Mediterranean coast and British protected Sinai border, including all of the Arabian peninsula.
3. Would Russia and the UK (while of course staying neutral) be willing to provide limited clandestine support to the US and Arabs in exchange for more control over, say, Egypt and Libya for the former and in Russian border lands for the latter?
What other European countries might be willing to unofficially intervene for one side or the other? Ideally in the scenario I'm envisioning, the Ottomans would receive limited and clandestine French and Spanish support in my scenario, but if it isn't plausible tell me what is.*
4. In general, how would such a war be fought following the Spanish surrender and how long a war might this be? What are the effects longterm in the Middle East, America, and Europe?
Thanks.
* - I'm trying to get this done as part of a larger TL idea wherein Russia renews the League of the Three Emperors secretly in or around 1900 and Italy joins in a defensive alliance with France, Spain, and the Ottoman Empire. Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire settle Balkan disputes (at least temporarily) and France, Spain, and Italy peacefully settle North African disputes.
This alliance system (which develops out of the Ottoman-American and North Atlantic Wars) effectively places Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany on one side and France, Spain, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire on the other (a Societatis Romanus, if you will); with the UK and US staying "splendidly" neutral until an inevitable Great War forces their hands into picking a side... which will presumably be that of Germany, Russia, and A-H... or they'll each pick a different side to make things interesting...
(This may require a Rockefeller oil investments in the ME POD)
Basically, the killing of American missionaries (in a failed kidnapping attempt by revolutionaries) in Turkey followed by the "accidental" US sinking of an Ottoman vessel abroad leads to record low public opinion on both sides and a gradual cessation of diplomatic and trade relations. With the Armenian tragedies becoming an international scandal, the OE is not popular in world affairs.
While the two sides have little interest in one another's spheres and European nations are keen to settle the differences without conflict, eventually as the US approaches war with Spain, the Ottoman Navy sinks an American vessel (perhaps containing prominent American civilians) causing public outcry.
Then the Spanish-American War occurs on schedule as in OTL, but the Spanish receive (mostly unofficial and limited) Ottoman support. The US; in retaliation for the previous several years of degenerating US-Ottoman relations, in response to the OE's support of Spain being made public, as well as for the Armenian genocide, declares war on the Ottoman Empire.
Now...
Disregarding the less than plausible premise for a moment, and assuming the war with the Spanish is more extensive but not much longer lived (by autumn or winter, the Spanish sue for peace) what types of warfare and what results from that warfare can we expect to see?
My thinking was that the Ottoman-American War (or when spoken about as part of the larger conflict with Spain: The North Atlantic War?) would be principally naval in nature. While the US was on the verge of a naval buildup and the Ottoman Empire was on the verge of naval stagnation and decline, neither nation was particularly ready for a full scale naval war.
I have a few questions (and again, hand wave the criticisms involving plausibility. I'm looking for how such a war would be fought, not whether or not such a war could occur):
1. Where would the main naval theater be located? Would we see the US fleet take the offensive initiative in the Mediterranean? Would the US attempt to strike at Constantinople like the Gallipoli campaign of OTL? Would the result be just as disastrous?
2. In OTL when foreign intervention was used in the OE, various groups became dissatisfied with the Turks and revolted with foreign support. It seems likely that many of these groups would be contacted by the US in order to weaken and distract the Turk's main force with proxy wars and rebellion. In this way, the US could send minimal troops (like in Cuba), select arms, financing, military advisors and volunteer and irregular regiments and keep the main focus on the naval theater and putting boots on the ground near Constantinople.
Could we therefore see the US creating unrest in Arabia? Might the 1st United States Volunteer Cavalry be used in such a way? (Rough Riders in Arabia?)
Could the Hashemites (under Sharif Ali ibn Muhammed) be convinced to revolt and host a constitutional monarchy under US protection, provided they are victorious? Jewish immigration to Palestine was a popular European idea at the time, and if Ali was as liberal as his successors he might have been willing to acquiesce to some degree.
I'm envisioning, if victorious, the US backed Arabs could at best liberate everything to the west of the Euphrates, south of Aleppo, and east of the Mediterranean coast and British protected Sinai border, including all of the Arabian peninsula.
3. Would Russia and the UK (while of course staying neutral) be willing to provide limited clandestine support to the US and Arabs in exchange for more control over, say, Egypt and Libya for the former and in Russian border lands for the latter?
What other European countries might be willing to unofficially intervene for one side or the other? Ideally in the scenario I'm envisioning, the Ottomans would receive limited and clandestine French and Spanish support in my scenario, but if it isn't plausible tell me what is.*
4. In general, how would such a war be fought following the Spanish surrender and how long a war might this be? What are the effects longterm in the Middle East, America, and Europe?
Thanks.
* - I'm trying to get this done as part of a larger TL idea wherein Russia renews the League of the Three Emperors secretly in or around 1900 and Italy joins in a defensive alliance with France, Spain, and the Ottoman Empire. Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire settle Balkan disputes (at least temporarily) and France, Spain, and Italy peacefully settle North African disputes.
This alliance system (which develops out of the Ottoman-American and North Atlantic Wars) effectively places Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany on one side and France, Spain, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire on the other (a Societatis Romanus, if you will); with the UK and US staying "splendidly" neutral until an inevitable Great War forces their hands into picking a side... which will presumably be that of Germany, Russia, and A-H... or they'll each pick a different side to make things interesting...