How would a (admittedly less than plausible) war between the OE and the US be fought?

Earlier I posted a PC thread concerning relations deteriorating between the OE and the US in the 1890's.

(This may require a Rockefeller oil investments in the ME POD)

Basically, the killing of American missionaries (in a failed kidnapping attempt by revolutionaries) in Turkey followed by the "accidental" US sinking of an Ottoman vessel abroad leads to record low public opinion on both sides and a gradual cessation of diplomatic and trade relations. With the Armenian tragedies becoming an international scandal, the OE is not popular in world affairs.

While the two sides have little interest in one another's spheres and European nations are keen to settle the differences without conflict, eventually as the US approaches war with Spain, the Ottoman Navy sinks an American vessel (perhaps containing prominent American civilians) causing public outcry.

Then the Spanish-American War occurs on schedule as in OTL, but the Spanish receive (mostly unofficial and limited) Ottoman support. The US; in retaliation for the previous several years of degenerating US-Ottoman relations, in response to the OE's support of Spain being made public, as well as for the Armenian genocide, declares war on the Ottoman Empire.

Now...

Disregarding the less than plausible premise for a moment, and assuming the war with the Spanish is more extensive but not much longer lived (by autumn or winter, the Spanish sue for peace) what types of warfare and what results from that warfare can we expect to see?

My thinking was that the Ottoman-American War (or when spoken about as part of the larger conflict with Spain: The North Atlantic War?) would be principally naval in nature. While the US was on the verge of a naval buildup and the Ottoman Empire was on the verge of naval stagnation and decline, neither nation was particularly ready for a full scale naval war.

I have a few questions (and again, hand wave the criticisms involving plausibility. I'm looking for how such a war would be fought, not whether or not such a war could occur):

1. Where would the main naval theater be located? Would we see the US fleet take the offensive initiative in the Mediterranean? Would the US attempt to strike at Constantinople like the Gallipoli campaign of OTL? Would the result be just as disastrous?

2. In OTL when foreign intervention was used in the OE, various groups became dissatisfied with the Turks and revolted with foreign support. It seems likely that many of these groups would be contacted by the US in order to weaken and distract the Turk's main force with proxy wars and rebellion. In this way, the US could send minimal troops (like in Cuba), select arms, financing, military advisors and volunteer and irregular regiments and keep the main focus on the naval theater and putting boots on the ground near Constantinople.

Could we therefore see the US creating unrest in Arabia? Might the 1st United States Volunteer Cavalry be used in such a way? (Rough Riders in Arabia?)

Could the Hashemites (under Sharif Ali ibn Muhammed) be convinced to revolt and host a constitutional monarchy under US protection, provided they are victorious? Jewish immigration to Palestine was a popular European idea at the time, and if Ali was as liberal as his successors he might have been willing to acquiesce to some degree.

I'm envisioning, if victorious, the US backed Arabs could at best liberate everything to the west of the Euphrates, south of Aleppo, and east of the Mediterranean coast and British protected Sinai border, including all of the Arabian peninsula.

3. Would Russia and the UK (while of course staying neutral) be willing to provide limited clandestine support to the US and Arabs in exchange for more control over, say, Egypt and Libya for the former and in Russian border lands for the latter?

What other European countries might be willing to unofficially intervene for one side or the other? Ideally in the scenario I'm envisioning, the Ottomans would receive limited and clandestine French and Spanish support in my scenario, but if it isn't plausible tell me what is.*

4. In general, how would such a war be fought following the Spanish surrender and how long a war might this be? What are the effects longterm in the Middle East, America, and Europe?

Thanks.

* - I'm trying to get this done as part of a larger TL idea wherein Russia renews the League of the Three Emperors secretly in or around 1900 and Italy joins in a defensive alliance with France, Spain, and the Ottoman Empire. Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire settle Balkan disputes (at least temporarily) and France, Spain, and Italy peacefully settle North African disputes.

This alliance system (which develops out of the Ottoman-American and North Atlantic Wars) effectively places Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany on one side and France, Spain, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire on the other (a Societatis Romanus, if you will); with the UK and US staying "splendidly" neutral until an inevitable Great War forces their hands into picking a side... which will presumably be that of Germany, Russia, and A-H... or they'll each pick a different side to make things interesting...
 
The Ottomans stay neutral during World War I. Therefore, they survive. Sometime after WWI, something happens between the Ottoman Empire and the USA (maybe the Ottomans nationalize the oil wells in the Arabian Peninsula), and in response, the USA starts a war against the Ottoman Empire.
 
The Ottomans stay neutral during World War I. Therefore, they survive. Sometime after WWI, something happens between the Ottoman Empire and the USA (maybe the Ottomans nationalize the oil wells in the Arabian Peninsula), and in response, the USA starts a war against the Ottoman Empire.

That's interesting, thank you.

Can you give me a little more?
 

Sabot Cat

Banned
That's interesting, thank you.

Can you give me a little more?

Perhaps the United States tries to initiate a coup d'etat with sympathetic Arab rebels in response to the Ottoman oil nationalization, but the Ottoman Empire discovers that the United States is responsible and declares war, as this would be the United States before World War II, and although still a force to be trifled with, it's not an unbeatable titan. The United Kingdom, France, and the rest would not dogpile the Ottoman Empire as one would expect because they're still have the lingering specter of the Great War in their zeitgeist.

It would be a close contest because despite the United States' greater internal stability, it's unlikely that most of the population would care about the war or support it very much. You might have widespread protests, especially by the Wobblies and the socialists; in fact, it might strengthen their movements because of how transparently imperialist this whole venture is, at the expense of mostly working class people for a cause most of the public doesn't have an interest in. The Progressive Republicans might take over the whole party in opposition to Wilson whilst riding the wave of this popular anti-war sentiment, and then opt out of the Ottoman War. The Progressive Republicans might then scale back the racism of the Wilson administration, repeal the sedition laws and foster better relations with the labor unions.

Meanwhile, the Ottoman Empire might be able to successfully frame the entire affair as a victory, and dispirit the Arab nationalists in their borders. They could even surge ahead in their standing in Europe, possessing an economy that didn't endure the Great War and apparent might enough to fend off the United States.

The United States meanwhile begins to go into a lasting isolationism that allows the growth of the Japanese Empire in the Pacific, with yet to be determined consequences...
 
My guess is that the British will shake their heads, shut down the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal for any naval vessels of either side and simply wait until the hotheads on either side has cooled down and peace is made.

The Ottoman navy is completely and utterly pathetic at this time.

They have 11 broadside/central battey/casemate ironclads, 3 broadside armoured corvettes and 1 monitor - all hail from the 1870s.

Basically, two armoured cruisers and two first class torpedo boatds can sink the entire Ottoman navy in 20 minutes.
 
The Ottomans stay neutral during World War I. Therefore, they survive. Sometime after WWI, something happens between the Ottoman Empire and the USA (maybe the Ottomans nationalize the oil wells in the Arabian Peninsula), and in response, the USA starts a war against the Ottoman Empire.

Just a note, oil wasn't discovered in the arabian peninsula until 1938, and not very much drilling was going on until 41. Before then, the Arabian Peninsula was essentialy a useless desert. IOTL, Saudi Arabia was among the poorest nations in the world before the discovery of oil.
 
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Should a war happen, and the British allow it, it would most likely center around a US invasion of Ottoman Libya, which will play out pretty much as the Italian one - albeit a bit slower, as the US army is smaller and much, much further away from their supply bases.

The Greeks might decide that this is a good time to get in on it - they were trounced 1897, and I suspect they would be trounced this time too. And this time they might not get the sympathies of the powers, and the Cretan uprising has not yet happened, so Crete might stay Ottoman for a while longer.

The question might be if the Italians want to get in on the action, and how the Russians react. Germany, and by extension also Austria, will probably not want a dismantling of the Ottoman Empire.
 
My guess is that the British will shake their heads, shut down the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal for any naval vessels of either side and simply wait until the hotheads on either side has cooled down and peace is made.

The Ottoman navy is completely and utterly pathetic at this time.

They have 11 broadside/central battey/casemate ironclads, 3 broadside armoured corvettes and 1 monitor - all hail from the 1870s.

Basically, two armoured cruisers and two first class torpedo boatds can sink the entire Ottoman navy in 20 minutes.

So, despite how poor the USN is at this time, it's still good enough to swat the Ottoman Navy in a naval war?

Should a war happen, and the British allow it, it would most likely center around a US invasion of Ottoman Libya, which will play out pretty much as the Italian one - albeit a bit slower, as the US army is smaller and much, much further away from their supply bases.

The Greeks might decide that this is a good time to get in on it - they were trounced 1897, and I suspect they would be trounced this time too. And this time they might not get the sympathies of the powers, and the Cretan uprising has not yet happened, so Crete might stay Ottoman for a while longer.

The question might be if the Italians want to get in on the action, and how the Russians react. Germany, and by extension also Austria, will probably not want a dismantling of the Ottoman Empire.

Why Libya? The US would most likely want to put boots on the ground in modern day Turkey and march to Constantinople in order to force the Ottomans to surrender and the international community to discuss what to do in response to the Armenian genocides.

If the Greeks and Italians do support the US (perhaps with supply ports?) I can't see the US losing terribly in the Mediterranean Theater as restocking would be the only hindrance to naval superiority in the region.

Also, as to the likelihood of the US promoting unrest in the Levant and the Arabian Peninsula and sending volunteer regiments, military advisors, guns, money, supplies, and maybe even a small number of regulars; do you find this strategy either unlikely or ineffective?

Distracting the Turkish regular infantries, scattering the Ottoman navy along the eastern coasts of the Med., disrupting supply lines and railroads, and occupying a US sponsored "Federated States of the Kingdom of Arabia" until the late 1910's would seem to me to be a worthy use of extra troops, munitions, funds, food and Rough Riders...

Also, if Germany and Austria-Hungary especially want the Ottoman Empire to remain alive and strong, could Italy entering the conflict to any degree push her away from the CP and into alliance with France?
 
The US has 3 protected cruisers and a number of torpedo boats 1890. They are enough to take out the entire Ottoman navy.

If both sides get 2 years to prepare, things might look different, as the Ottomans had several cruisers on the slips that were cancelled around this time OTL due to a lack of funds.

While the Ottoman navy is pathetic, their army is not. 1897 they fielded 8 infantry and 1 cavalry division, 120 000 men, against the Greeks and handily defeated them. The US army landed at Santiago 1898 consisted of 25 000 men. The US has no chance at landing any troops in Anatolia and marching on Istanbul 1890.

Cuba was very close to the US centre of supplies, and very far from the Spanish one. Anatolia is VERY close to the Ottoman centre of supplies and VERY far from the US. Any US landing would be slaughtered. The Santiago landing of 1898 was unopposed because Cuban rebels controlled the area. This would not be the case in Anatolia.

The Amernian genocide took place 1915-1916, with some flare-ups 1917 and 1918. 1890 the Armenians were a bit discontent, but not in revolt and they were certainly not being massacred.

Besides, the US was not a champion of the rights of ethnic groups in various Empires around this time. Their treatment of the Indians during this time and the Phillipine guerillas 1899-1901 shows this clearly. Wilson's championing national states out of Empires is a post-1916 thing.

The US can go after Libya and perhaps Crete because they can, by establishing naval supremacy, isolate these from the rest of the Ottoman Empire, but all the rest? Forget it.

The Arabs are decently content at this time - it took the British 2 years of massive bribes and promises to incite a real rebellion in ww1, and it was no real threat to the Ottoman Empire until VERY late in the war. The whole area is arid desert without economical value until oil is discovered in 1938. Any resources spent there are completely wasted, as they do not bother the Ottomans at all and do not yield any benefits.

The US might be able to incite some small revolts, but they cannot threaten the core of Ottoman territory in Europe, the Levant or Anatolia.

I doubt the Italians would provide ports for the US, as it would anger the Germans too much - if there's a general dismantling of the Ottoman Empire, they might get in, but otherwise not. The Greeks might want to provide bases, but they would be in the reach of Ottoman land forces, which would be a bad idea.

Bottom line.

The US military establishment is pathetic at this time, and utterly incapable of a prolonged war, especially one against a major power (yes, a third-rate one, but still) on the other side of the world.
 
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