Whilst MacArthur was completely blind to reality in favour of his personal delusions of striding onto a volcanic beach with his pipe, there was enough intelligence to show that Olympic/Majestic was becoming increasingly unpalatable. The number of kamikazes ready to fly was simply staggering at over twelve thousand, the Japanese had hoped that they could destroy as much as 75% of the troopships before they hit the beaches in this fashion. Whilst this was likely an exaggeration, studies after the war concluded that as much as 25% of the troopships would be destroyed off the coast, and possibly even more than that.
The IJA at least matched the Americans in regular troops, with the USN estimating that they would outnumber them by the time Olympic/Majestic was likely to take place. This was without the certainty that the Japanese knew where the Americans were going to land, which they did, but it wasn't too difficult to conclude that potential landing zones were few and far between and thus rather obvious. It's almost certain that without the atomic bombs and the Soviet entry into the war that the plan would have been abandoned.
Coronet on it's own seems far more risky without hindsight, the Japanese forces on Kanto were incredibly menacing on paper purely by US estimations. The First General Army could have actually relied on many more troops than the Americans presumed, and whilst they couldn't launch an all out armoured counter-attack without any fuel, I imagine the feasibility of bypassing Kyushu would still have been being debated by the time that famine began to noticeably take hold in the spring of 1946.
The IJA at least matched the Americans in regular troops, with the USN estimating that they would outnumber them by the time Olympic/Majestic was likely to take place. This was without the certainty that the Japanese knew where the Americans were going to land, which they did, but it wasn't too difficult to conclude that potential landing zones were few and far between and thus rather obvious. It's almost certain that without the atomic bombs and the Soviet entry into the war that the plan would have been abandoned.
Coronet on it's own seems far more risky without hindsight, the Japanese forces on Kanto were incredibly menacing on paper purely by US estimations. The First General Army could have actually relied on many more troops than the Americans presumed, and whilst they couldn't launch an all out armoured counter-attack without any fuel, I imagine the feasibility of bypassing Kyushu would still have been being debated by the time that famine began to noticeably take hold in the spring of 1946.
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