How well could France and allies do in the Seven Years' War?
- Thread starter Eivind
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CaliGuy
Banned
Well, wouldn't Russia have successfully conquered East Prussia and who else knows what had Tsarina Elizabeth not died when she did?
As @0100010 and @CaliGuy implied... make Tsarina Elizabeth live. If there is no "Miracle of the House of Hohenzollern," then Britain and friends are screwed alongside Prussia. A million miles in the New World is worth less than the balance of power in one part of Europe. Britain will give in to prevent a Russia the size of the Soviet occupation zone after WWII OTL...
France could win back lost territories in Canada, and stuff in India and Africa. Maybe a few Carribean islands?
Austria gets their Silesia back, Russia gets good chunks of Prussia. Spain gets Gibraltar. Sweden recovers a little land from Prussia. I suppose Bavaria and Saxony would get stuff from the Prussian-allied HRE states? Not an expert on their territorial ambitions. Portugal will lose some colonies to Spain maybe.
Britain is going to be even more in debt. Money influx may help keep France afloat. The prestigious victory at least will severely delay the Revolution. Austria is going to be the power in Germany. Mughals might even survive in India. might.
France could win back lost territories in Canada, and stuff in India and Africa. Maybe a few Carribean islands?
Austria gets their Silesia back, Russia gets good chunks of Prussia. Spain gets Gibraltar. Sweden recovers a little land from Prussia. I suppose Bavaria and Saxony would get stuff from the Prussian-allied HRE states? Not an expert on their territorial ambitions. Portugal will lose some colonies to Spain maybe.
Britain is going to be even more in debt. Money influx may help keep France afloat. The prestigious victory at least will severely delay the Revolution. Austria is going to be the power in Germany. Mughals might even survive in India. might.
CaliGuy
Banned
Three questions:
1. Does Russia give East Prussia to Poland afterwards or keep it for itself?
2. Does this result in an even earlier American Revolution in this TL?
3. Does Poland still get partitioned later on in this TL?
Having Tsarina Elizabeth die later would help alot, however if you have already wanked allies in the war and ended it early, then the war will likely be over prior to her OTL death, which was why I did not initially mention it.
If Britain gets a greater financial hurt and leans more heavily on the colonies for taxes it could start the war early, then again it might also prevent it if Britain gives back Quebec to France. If the ARW does happen anyway and Britain has less finances and possibly a weaker navy due to 7YW losses, that is in the rebels favor too.
If Britain gets a greater financial hurt and leans more heavily on the colonies for taxes it could start the war early, then again it might also prevent it if Britain gives back Quebec to France. If the ARW does happen anyway and Britain has less finances and possibly a weaker navy due to 7YW losses, that is in the rebels favor too.
ben0628
Banned
1) Prussia falls
2) Hanover falls
3) French and Indian allies destroy all frontier settlements in New York, New Hampshire, Maine (Massachuesetts), Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
4) French allies in India defeat the British East India Company
5) French regain Nova Scotia
6) The plans for a Jacobite Rebellion are actually implemented and although they lose, they cause chaos in the British Isles
This of course would require everything going right for the French. Up until 1758, everything was working out in North America for France so the destruction of Prussia is the best pod, as well as a better showing of the French Navy.
2) Hanover falls
3) French and Indian allies destroy all frontier settlements in New York, New Hampshire, Maine (Massachuesetts), Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
4) French allies in India defeat the British East India Company
5) French regain Nova Scotia
6) The plans for a Jacobite Rebellion are actually implemented and although they lose, they cause chaos in the British Isles
This of course would require everything going right for the French. Up until 1758, everything was working out in North America for France so the destruction of Prussia is the best pod, as well as a better showing of the French Navy.
ben0628
Banned
It depends how much debt the British have after the war and whether or not they'll raise taxes on the colonies.
French Quebec, including the Ohio country, butterflies away the Proclamation of 1763 and the Quebec Act of 1774, two major provocations to the colonial elite. With the French still entrenched on the North and Northwestern boundaries of the colonies and continuing to support Native American predation on isolated colonial settlements, the necessity of taxation for armed defense and the presence of troops is obvious to the colonials. The French supported Native American activity is the real threat, not 'Papist Bourbon tyranny'. No AR if the French are still in place.
1. No, Russia intended as part of secret negotiations with Austria to annex East Prussia, essentially and effectively, in an attempt to end Prussia's pretensions of Kingship and reduce Prussia back to the former Margraviate of Brandenburg.
2. Highly unlikely. One of the factors as to why the British colonists were loyal was because of the French boogeyman to the north and west. If they're still there, then the Americans have less reason to revolt. Even though French Louisiana is still underpopulated and I think the American colonialists could eventually overtake Louisiana. Canada will still be French though.
3. Kinda hard to say really. The Commonwealth was essentially a Russian protectorate at this point, and Austria would never support Russia eating all of Poland (which was something I'm tempted to say, Catherine the Great wanted). With no third power to balance out a partition (since Brandenburg is reduced to a similar position to the other secondary German states, and Austria not willing to restrengthen them), I could hypothesize that Poland will still remain a nation. It then becomes a case of when Poland will get its crap together.
CaliGuy
Banned
1. Would Russia also annex Courland in this TL? After all, the alternative to this would be a non-contiguous East Prussia for Russia!
2. Question--who would the American Colonists have perceived to have been the greater evil in this TL? The French or the British? Indeed, how reliable would they view French promises of genuine independence (as opposed to having France dominate them if/after they will become independent from Britain)?
3. How long do you think that it would take Poland to get its crap together, though?
Also, why exactly would Austria not want to restrengthen Prussia? Because Prussia was its historic rival?
1. Prolly, at the time, Courland was ruled under a regency council until 1758 when Carl of Saxony came to inherit, an attempt by Saxony (and by extension, the Commonwealth), to restore lost influence over the Duchy. The other claimant at the time, Ernst Johann von Biron was essentially a prisoner in Siberia at the behest of Elizabeth. If we have Elizabeth survive a little longer, which is already a difficult achievement in and of itself. We could potentially see an earlier annexation of Courland rather than a restoration of the Biron family to the Dukedom.
2. The French. Again, part of the reason for the American's being uppity was largely because of the British not allowing to take up the land they won from the French in the French and Indian War, but at the same time, despite the fact that French Louisiana was still not as populated as the Thirteen Colonies, the colonists probably saw the French as a proverbial Sword of Damocles against them. Now while I wouldn't doubt the possibility of the French supporting independence for the colonies, I can't say it wouldn't be without French effectively treating the region as more of a protectorate than an out and out new colony.
3. I honestly do not know to be honest. Considering a lot of the notables in the Sejm tend to resist the authority of the monarch, often times being bought by foriegn nationals. Unless the monarch can successfully manage to centralize power within Poland, it could serve as a replacement bulwark against Russia.
Which would loop around to your later question. If Austria supports the continued existence of Poland, and perhaps have a hand in strengthening Polish power somewhat (maybe as far as attempting to engineer a Habsburg on the Polish throne), then they won't have a need to restrengthen Prussia...
...then again if they fail, I can't imagine how that will turn out.
1. The annexation of Prussia by Russia was never supposed to be permenant, they took it so they could swap it for courland. This would have happened since Prussia was owned directly by Frederick therefore the land never had a powerful noble that could be a problem in the Sejm.
2. The French of course, remember it was the French blocking their way west, add to that they were funding the native wars against the colonist, and in otl they only revolted when the British blocked them from expanding west and giving the former enemy (the québécois) control of the land they wanted.
3. IMO maybe never, as long as Liberum veto exist, their enemies will always pay a noble to stop any debate they want. Also if they ever rebelled both Austria and Russia will put them down, the only reason Austria was happy that he PLC was a Russian protectorate was they were getting a lot of money from both.
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CaliGuy
Banned
OK; also, though, what sources are you and Ameck using? After all, you appear to give contradictory answers to this question of mine.
You mean "treating the region as more of a protectorate than an out and out new country," correct?
Also, couldn't the American Colonies prefer to live under French rule if this will mean lower taxes for them? After all, I know that Taxation Without Representation was a big slogan in the American Revolution in our TL!
How exactly should a Polish monarch centralize power, though?
What about playing Prussia, Poland, and Russia off against each other, though?
Any guesses, though?
CaliGuy
Banned
OK; however, what sources are you using? Indeed, I'm curious as to why exactly you and Noblesse Oblige have different answers in regards to this!
OK; also, though, a French promise of lower taxes wouldn't be enough to compensate for France's previous poor behavior towards the American Colonists, correct?
How exactly can this veto be abolished, though?
You mean a lot of money from both Poland and Russia?
I remember reading a book about the Russian Tsars in general, and one section was dedicated to Empress Elizabeth. I cannot remember what the name is, as it was a library book I've looked into many years ago, and I haven't really bothered to look into it again (especially since I've lost said library card recently.)