How wealthy would a surviving Byzantine Empire be?

Assuming the Byzantine Empire manages to pull together, while avoiding having that situation with the Crusaders in 1204, how wealthy would a surviving Byzantine Empire be compared to China or Western Europe?
 
That largely depends on which lands it manages to hold on to. If it is the size of Turkey, not very. If manages to expand on its holdings it is very much a country to be reckoned with.
 
An intact silk industry would certainly help them out a bit, but it seems only a matter of time until silk production would makes its way to the rest of Europe and destroy the Dependance on eastern trade. At such a crossroads of trade it seems incredibly likely to profit, but also seems incredibly vulnerable to waves of raiding that could end up costing them so much to fight off it ends up crushing them.
 
That largely depends on which lands it manages to hold on to. If it is the size of Turkey, not very. If manages to expand on its holdings it is very much a country to be reckoned with.

Let's assume they manage to keep most of Western Anatolia and Trebizond, along with Greece sans Corfu, Crete, and a few of the Aegean islands FPotS.
 
gdp per capita 11th century was close to 1300 international 1992 dollars according to brankovic with conservative estimates at 700-800 1992 dollars . Literacy was 30% and had a population of I believe 12 million or more or less not sure, given that trajectory and with no disaster at Manzikert and an intact Byzantium that repulses the Turks and retakes Levant and Egypt would be quite the powerhouse. By the way its gdp per capita and literacy rates were not surpassed till the 18th century by Britain and even later by other major European powers. Byzantium based on all current research was at its core a state based on commerce and trade and manufacturing. if it retains its dominence in these three fields by the 18th-19th century ad survives till then it is bound to be a powerhouse at the veyr least a number 3 or number 4 power of europe and can industrialize given the right conditions with a very powerful economy. Essentially 11th century Byzantium was in such a good position that had it survived till the 18th-19th century and grew at the same rate as it was growing during that period than it could industrialize quite quickly since all the preconditions for industrialization at least most of them as understood by the mainstream economic historians consensus would be in place.

Now if Byzantium loses its strength in the above three fields or collapses like otl and is stuck in just the balkans or part of Anatolia it can be a regional and wealthy power at best.
 
Did it have good and easily accessible deposits of iron and coal on it's territory? That's going to be important once the *Industrial Revolution rolls around. Also, if it survives it's going to need a fairly formidable military to keep the Muslims (Turks? Persians? Neo-Mongols? Mega Kurdistan?) at bay, which is going to be pricey: hopefully once the era of Wars of Religion, if they take place, ends it will be able to get along OK with the Hungarians at least. It should be able to maintain a fair energetic intellectual and commercial contact with western Europe once the modern era rolls around, judging from the case of the Russians OTL, which should help in Keeping up With the Joneses (and the Karls, Louises, etc.)

Comparison with OTL Greece seems a bit dubious: Greece, after all, was under Turkish rule for half a millennium. Perhaps Italy, another Mediterranean country with an Imperial past? :)
 
Did it have good and easily accessible deposits of iron and coal on it's territory? That's going to be important once the *Industrial Revolution rolls around. Also, if it survives it's going to need a fairly formidable military to keep the Muslims (Turks? Persians? Neo-Mongols? Mega Kurdistan?) at bay, which is going to be pricey: hopefully once the era of Wars of Religion, if they take place, ends it will be able to get along OK with the Hungarians at least. It should be able to maintain a fair energetic intellectual and commercial contact with western Europe once the modern era rolls around, judging from the case of the Russians OTL, which should help in Keeping up With the Joneses (and the Karls, Louises, etc.)

Comparison with OTL Greece seems a bit dubious: Greece, after all, was under Turkish rule for half a millennium. Perhaps Italy, another Mediterranean country with an Imperial past? :)
there is lots of lygnite coal in anatolia and balkans and hard coal deposits in Armeniakon.

For mulims all it needs is to descivly win at Manzikert perhaps have Andornikos not betray Romanus? Oh and kill Alp rslan and Malik Shah too and cause the Seiljuks to collapse. Without a strong unified persian state the Byzzies continue their advance into Levant held by a collapsing and weak Fatamids and push into Egypt. Crusades are butterflied away as well at least against mideast I think.

Iron it has plenty if it retains control over Armenia, Anatolia, and the Balkans. Georgia too would be good as would having hegemony over the caucus.
 

GdwnsnHo

Banned
Considering how different politics around the Bosporos, and modern attempts and conflicts to reclaim Egypt and the Levant - it could be fantastically wealthy. Sure it doesn't have the new world - even though it could do with a certain stream of luck (but lets assume it doesn't).

With any introduction of steam power, I'd expect the Romans to be excited about it, especially any Emperor who is deeply aware of their chronic manpower issues - if their workforce can be more productive, they can earn more money - taxes, and mercenaries are possible. Less people working but more money also means a larger standing army.

With that sort of latching onto technology to solve their issues, I'd expect them to be like the UK or other early adopters - wealthy, but with emerging infrastructure issues that really are hampering their growth, whilst everyone else catches up.
 
Perhaps Italy, another Mediterranean country with an Imperial past? :)

Italy or Aragon seems good to me. Both were flush with trade money during the medieval period and filled with well educated people. Then lost a lot of it when people realised sailing around Africa needed fewer middle men. Aragon escaped by joining into Spain, but the Italians went from the Jewel of Europe to irrelevant fairly quickly.
 

libbrit

Banned
If the Ottoman empire was roughly OTL Turkey, id say it could be a pretty wealthy middle income power with a significant presence in the Eastern Med.

Think Spain
 
Assuming a Komnenian restoration to minimise butterflies to the rest of Europe you got at mid 12th century a state with a population comparable to France (circa 12 million) with a per capita comparable to that of Italy. So France may be a good comparison. Something in the order of 60-80 million with Western European levels of PC GDP counting when demographic transition hits. And presuming we don't see the Byzantines back in Southern Italy by the 16th century which ain't necessarily a given.
 
If the Byzantines manage to get down to Egypt we might see them sailing from the Red Sea to try and establish their own trading outposts in the Far East.
 
For mulims all it needs is to descivly win at Manzikert perhaps have Andornikos not betray Romanus? Oh and kill Alp rslan and Malik Shah too and cause the Seiljuks to collapse. Without a strong unified persian state the Byzzies continue their advance into Levant held by a collapsing and weak Fatamids and push into Egypt. Crusades are butterflied away as well at least against mideast I think.

That still gives you eight hundred years to get to the 21st century: plenty of time for new Islamic powers to arise, and then there's the possibility of something like the Mongols even if we butterfly Genghis. Muslims are likely to remain a problem up until some sort of modernization in military technique and technology comparable to Europe 1560s-1700 takes place.

I don't think a Byzantine reconquest of Egypt is very likely before the 18th century, assuming Europe progresses relatively to the Islamic world at a comparable rate to OTL. But they might grab the Straits of Gibraltar and get some Atlantic access: relations with a Catholic Spain are likely to be shaky at best.
 
If they were to hold the Caucasus and, with it, Baku, they could be a middling player in oil politics when that comes around. Thats a bit of a stretch, but it would certainly help.
 
The two things a surviving Byz would need is an agricultural revolution like the British of the 1700s and others later and an Industrial revolution. That these things didn't occur IOTL isn't an indication that they can't occur. IIUC first the Byz and then the Ottos changed Anatolia from mixed farming to livestock ranching, if this can be changed back to mixed farming then perhaps an agricultural revolution is possible. As for the industrial revolution, hydroelectric power is an acceptable way to generate electricity in lieu of coal fired power plants, what is the chances of that in the territory held by the Komnenos?

As for a PoD, more successful Crusaders mean the Islamic powers concentrate on them for another century or so, leaving time for the reconquests of the Komnenos to stick.
 
The two things a surviving Byz would need is an agricultural revolution like the British of the 1700s and others later and an Industrial revolution. That these things didn't occur IOTL isn't an indication that they can't occur.

It is a sign that something is going on, though.

And that something was generally lower agricultural productivity and very slow adoption of new technologies in agriculture. The Byzantines started falling behind Western Europe agriculturally long before the actual end in 1453. This isn't really their fault, though: It's climate and geography. The old technologies were well suited to the soil and other natural conditions of medieval Anatolia and Greece and the new technologies represented marginal and expensive improvements.

The problem is that this means it's going to be difficult for the Byzantines to undergo that economic take-off that drove increasing productivity in Western Europe and China in the 18th century. To be honest, if you're wondering what the Byzantine economy would look like in the 1800's, just look at the Ottoman one. The institutions were similar enough that you get a good idea of what potential the areas they had in common supported.
 
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I don't think a Byzantine reconquest of Egypt is very likely before the 18th century, assuming Europe progresses relatively to the Islamic world at a comparable rate to OTL. But they might grab the Straits of Gibraltar and get some Atlantic access: relations with a Catholic Spain are likely to be shaky at best.
true theyre are still 800 years but I think the byzzies can adapt and at the very least halt the invaders. Mongols though probably will get hit hard or might not depends on whether the emperor at time is willing to pay tribute.

As for Egypt why not. By 1050s Most of the Levant had been recaptured. The Fatimids were utterly weakened by this point while Byzantium was at the height of its epogee military and economically. The Arabic states in Damaascus and Edessa were already beatean and in the process of being taken over. Hell everything was goign right for the byzzies but then the Turks came in and everything goes to shit. Romanos was a decent emperor by the way he just got super unlucky.

As for Abbasids.... eh given the state of their empire at the time they wont really interfere in levant. With Turks repulsed I see the Byzzies retaking Levant by the 1080s and by the 1100s push into Egypt after handily beating the Fatimid armies. As for native egypt populace... might revolt or might not depnds really on how badly or how well they are treated by Byantium.I agree though that direct annexation of Egypt probably doesnt occur but a client state or some sort of vassal state is probably set up.4

Man otto economy was not similair to byzantine. Like I stated Byz at its height post arab revolutionns relied on commerce and trade and manufacturing. Byzanitum fell behind the west because of internal civil wars, losses of heartland to Turks and constant warring with Normans. Thigns went to shit the moment the Komnenoi took charge. Prevent manzikert and you prevent the feudalization of the Byzantine state and can probably see the small soldier farmers retaining their landholdings and the theme system probably survivng. With a surviving theme system and small scle farmers rather than large scale magnates I think an agricultural revolution can occur. As for new world impact on trade not much. Remember commodity prices like to converge as they did otl so that by the 1600s neither the africa route or the traiditonal silk road route dominated because prices of commodities being sold and transported through both were equal. Can show you figures if you want of factor price and commodity convergence.
 
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