How We Lost Detroit: The Fermi Nuclear Disaster

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Solar thermal is probably easier to get to a commercial state at that point. Photoelectric is competitive today in many places, but was insanely expensive back then.

Wind power is probably also commercializable, at least in e.g. the Great Plains states.

 

[Knightmare]

On a side note, wonder what happens to the auto industry in Detroit...

Eh, cars should be fine. Metal doesn't radiate that much radiation, does it?

More seriously, it's gonna die out. They can't move any equipment, the people are gone.....

 

[dartingfog]

January 22, 1967

Nuclear industry downplays threat of radiation [1]

Recent polls show that more than 70% of Americans oppose the construction of new atomic plants. As public opposition to the construction of atomic power plants in the United States mounts, the industry has launched an initiative to persuade a skeptical public that the hazards of nuclear power are overblown. The atomic energy industry wants to set the record straight with the American public.

The nuclear proponents are led by the Atomic Industrial Forum, an industry organization which has set up a separate lobbying arm called the Atomic Truth Council (ATC). [2] The AIF has changed its status from a trade organization to an educational group to allow more flexibility in its activities, and doubled its public relations budget. The newly-founded atomic lobby group has launched a series of television ads that downplay the risks of nuclear power. They aim to portray Fermi as a rare aberration, and convince the public that nuclear power remains a safe, economical source of energy. “Fermi has made nuclear power safer,” declared one ad. A TV commercial declared that radiation is “all around us” and shouldn’t necessarily inspire fear. This trial run of ads is hoped to bring about attitudinal changes that are favorable to nuclear energy. [3]

The nuclear power industry is not only trying to rehabilitate its image with voters, but also schoolchildren. In an attempt to counter the negative image of atomic energy perpetuated by the media, educational films portraying atomic power in a favorable light will be distributed to schools across the country. [4] The atomic industry lobbyists claim that atomic power is necessary for the US to keep up with the Soviet Union, which is rapidly advancing its civilian nuclear power program. They argue atomic energy not only plays an important role in producing power, but also in establishing American dominance. [5]

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] First communist propaganda, now capitalist propaganda!

[2] A fictional association loosely based on real-life pro-nuclear lobbying groups like U.S. Committee for Energy Awareness or American Nuclear Energy Council.

[3] Based on actual TV ads run shortly after Three Mile Island. Detroit News, Dec. 13, 1982

[4] Modeled after: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Is_for_Atom and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Friend_the_Atom

[5] It’s not like there’s gonna be another tragic incident that will threaten the perception of American technological superiority, right?

 

[dartingfog]

January 27, 1967

3 astronauts dead in Apollo launchpad explosion [1]

"This is a CBS News Special Report.

This is Mike Wallace at the CBS Newsroom in New York. America’s first three Apollo astronauts were trapped and killed by a flash fire that swept their moon-ship early tonight during a launchpad test at Cape Kennedy in Florida.

Virgil 'Gus' Grissom, 40 years old, one of original Mercury astronauts, the first American astronaut to go twice into space. Edward White, 36 years old, the first American to walk into space. And Rookie astronaut Roger Chafee, 31 years old, training for his first spaceflight, Apollo 1, scheduled for February 21st.

These three astronauts were aboard their spaceship 10 minutes from a simulated liftoff at Cape Kennedy when the fire hit at about 6:30 tonight. They were inside their spaceship, pressurized, buttoned-up inside their spacesuits when the fire hit. A closed circuit television camera was relaying pictures of the astronauts lying on their backs inside the spacecraft atop the two-stage Saturn-1. There was a flash and that was it, according to a NASA spokesman watching the television screen in the blockhouse a few hundred yards away from Launchpad 34. The screen went blank and he said that there was no communication from the astronauts. They died silently and apparently swiftly. Their bodies have been left in the spacecraft, according to the latest information from Cape pending an investigation into the disaster.

President Johnson tonight mourned the death of three astronauts, he said they gave their lives in the nation’s service. Our brave men in uniform, whether in Vietnam or seeking the frontiers of the future, he said, mourn with all of us, the tragic loss of 3 gallant and dedicated airmen."

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] A direct quote from OTL

 

[generalurist]

The Apollo blast is basically entirely as OTL, right? Though hot on the heels of Fermi the reaction might differ.

Fermi has made nuclear power safer,” declared one ad. A TV commercial declared that radiation is “all around us” and shouldn’t necessarily inspire fear.

Now I'm generally pro nuclear, but this sounds suspiciously similar to the denial that having lead shitting out everyone's exhaust pipes couldn't cause damage.

EDIT: Isn't this right about the time using TEL started becoming controversial? I imagine there might be a coordinated pushback against both.

 

[Unknown]

“Fermi has made nuclear power safer,” declared one ad.

Yeah, what could possibly go wrong here?

 

[dartingfog]

The Apollo blast is basically entirely as OTL, right? Though hot on the heels of Fermi the reaction might differ.

Now I'm generally pro nuclear, but this sounds suspiciously similar to the denial that having lead shitting out everyone's exhaust pipes couldn't cause damage.

EDIT: Isn't this right about the time using TEL started becoming controversial? I imagine there might be a coordinated pushback against both.

Yes, the Apollo blast is as OTL. Given the mistakes made by North American, I think it's likely that the accident still would have happened.

I'm not sure about lead but I think a close parallel can be found in the advertising campaigns for tobacco after the Surgeon General's report in 1964, only three years prior: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1970/12/19/the-fight-to-ban-smoking-ads

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

“Fermi has made nuclear power safer,”

Yeah, what could possibly go wrong here?

Imagine someone clueless enough to try to sell '9/11 made America safer'.
I rather think that's a good OTL analog for TTL's campaign....

 

[dartingfog]

February 2, 1967

Detroit automakers report lower profits in ‘66

Two of Detroit’s biggest auto companies reported reduced production and profits in the fourth quarter of 1966. General Motors’ net profits for the final quarter of 1966 were $276 million, or $0.97 a share, compared with $587 million or $2.05 a share in the final quarter of 1965. Ford Motor Company’s net profits declined 20% from last year, with sales almost level with last year. Net profits for the quarter declined to $64 million or 58 cents a share, compared with $162 million or $1.47 in the fourth quarter in 1965. American Motors Corp. bucked the trend, posting a modest profit for the fourth quarter of $1.5 million, or 8 cents a share. In the quarter a year earlier, AMC earned net profits at $4.2 million or 22 cents a share. [1]

The lower profits are attributed to the meltdown of the Fermi plant, which temporarily idled Ford and GM’s assembly and parts plants in the Detroit area. AMC plants, located primarily in Wisconsin and greater Toronto, were unaffected by the Fermi meltdown. [2] However, the main cause of reduced production was the closing of auto supplier factories and steel plants in Detroit’s Downriver area, which is part of the evacuation zone surrounding Fermi. Among these is McClouth Steel, one of the largest steel producers in the United States. Since October, McClouth’s Trenton and Gibraltar steel mills (in the evacuation zone) have been idle, though some production has been shifted to their smaller Detroit plant. [3] With a major local producer of automotive steel out of commission, Detroit’s automakers are looking elsewhere, even abroad, to purchase steel for manufacturing their cars.

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] 1966 profit reports were based on several OTL articles: “Ford’s Profit Down 12 Pct.”, Detroit News, February 3, 1967; “GM’s Profits, Sales Retreat from Peaks”, Detroit News, February 1, 1967; “Stockholders hear AMC’s Woes”, Detroit News, February 2, 1967 (I could find no report from Chrysler). I have arbitrarily halved the profits of Ford and GM for the fourth quarter, but increased AMC profits by $10 million.

[2] Interestingly, relatively few auto factories were located in the (evacuated) Downriver area at the time. Even in the 1960s, the auto industry was fairly decentralized, with plants across the United States (albeit concentrated in Michigan and Ohio). Even in the Detroit area, most plants were located in the city proper, Dearborn (barely outside the evacuation zone), and northern suburbs: https://detroitography.com/2014/04/18/map-of-detroit-auto-industry-1960/

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_General_Motors_factories , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ford_factories , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chrysler_factories ,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Motors_Corporation#Facilities

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLouth_Steel

 

[traveller76]

With that much manufacturing capacity idle and the dislocation in the Great Lakes area I see recession on the horizon. Now surrounding states will see an influx of people and businesses but it will take time to adjust. Prices for steel and cars may rise for a while and imports may gain a share due to cost/availability.

 

[Dragon Lord]

As a resident of Toronto I'm interested in how this is affecting Canada. Whatever the US response regarding compensation it is going to drive a bit of a wedge between the US and Canada, but if the US brushes off Canadian demands as you've indicated Johnson is doing thus far it is going to dramatically turn Canadian public opinion against the US. Trying to tie compensation to assistance in Vietnam would be a non-starter, it would be political suicide for any Canadian prime minister to agree to that, though they might be persuaded to be tougher on draft-dodgers. Canada would definitely turn to the UK and Commonwealth for assistance faced with an uncooperative US, and I could actually see an attempt to tie compensation to entering the Vietnam war backfiring with Australia and New Zealand withdrawing their support in protest

 

[Unknown]

That reminds me: what are the Detroit Red Wings, Detroit Pistons, Detroit Lions, and Detroit Tigers up to ITTL?

 

[dartingfog]

As a resident of Toronto I'm interested in how this is affecting Canada. Whatever the US response regarding compensation it is going to drive a bit of a wedge between the US and Canada, but if the US brushes off Canadian demands as you've indicated Johnson is doing thus far it is going to dramatically turn Canadian public opinion against the US. Trying to tie compensation to assistance in Vietnam would be a non-starter, it would be political suicide for any Canadian prime minister to agree to that, though they might be persuaded to be tougher on draft-dodgers. Canada would definitely turn to the UK and Commonwealth for assistance faced with an uncooperative US, and I could actually see an attempt to tie compensation to entering the Vietnam war backfiring with Australia and New Zealand withdrawing their support in protest

Your analysis is correct, Dragon Lord. The US and Canada are headed for an icing of relations. Johnson is deliberately playing hardball with the Canadians to get a more favorable settlement with them, knowing full well that Canada won't enter Vietnam. Coincidentally, I'm working on a post for February 1967 about the Mercantile bank controversy, which wasn't a big deal in OTL, but will be a major point of contention ITTL.

That reminds me: what are the Detroit Red Wings, Detroit Pistons, Detroit Lions, and Detroit Tigers up to ITTL?

They're all still around. At the time, all of their stadiums and arenas were located in Downtown Detroit, outside of the evacuation zone.

The Tigers are in between seasons. Their last game was October 2, 1966, 3 days before the Fermi meltdown. Their first game of the 1967 season will be April 11, 1967 at the California Angels.

The Lions' 1966 season was likewise unaffected. They played several away games in the immediate aftermath of the Fermi meltdown on October 9, 16, and 23, playing their first home game after the meltdown on October 30, as scheduled. As OTL, they finished the season 4-9-1 (some things don't change).

The Red Wings' 1966-67 season was almost unaffected. Their first game of the season takes place on October 19, as OTL. The only difference was the playing of the October 22 game in Chicago, rather than at Detroit, which was due to the riots (meaning they play two games in Chicago on two consecutive days). Their next home game will be October 27, as scheduled in OTL.

The Pistons' 1966-1967 season is mostly unchanged, though in October there were some differences. The first game of the season, October 15 game is played in Cincinnati against the Royals as OTL. The following two games (against the Cincinnati Royals and St. Louis Hawks), which were played at home in OTL, are instead played at Yost Fieldhouse in Ann Arbor, Michigan. This wasn't unusual, though, because in OTL their game on October 23 against the San Francisco Warriors and the October 28 game against the Chicago Bulls were played in Seattle and Fort Wayne, Indiana, respectively.Their next home game won't be until October 29, as OTL.

 

[dartingfog]

February 5, 1967

Nuclear power’s Loss is Coal’s Gain

A year ago, the future of coal looked grim. With the development of nuclear energy plants, coal was faced with the loss of its last big market. By burning fissionable materials, the power industry purchased less coal: 80 million tons of coal annually. But after Fermi, interest in coal-fired plants has grown. Several dozen new plants are now in the works across the United States to meet the void left by the halt in atomic plant construction. To meet the previously-unforeseen growth in demand for coal, coal-producing states like West Virginia and Kentucky are looking to boost production. Many factory workers displaced from Detroit suburbs like Taylor [1] and surrounding communities have returned to their former homes to work in Appalachia’s coal mines.

The surge in coal has revived the idea of building a trans-Alleghany coal barge canal, connecting the Ohio and James rivers. [2] Known as the James River and Kanawha Canal, it was originally conceived by none other than George Washington, but was never built. [3] Due to the mountainous terrain, such a canal would require many years and billions of dollars to build. However, with increasing demand for coal, such a monumental engineering feat may become economically feasible.

Currently, coal bound for the Atlantic is transported from West Virginia by rail to the port of Richmond, Virginia. The proposed canal would reduce carrying costs by $3 a ton. While this sounds like a miniscule savings, with half a billion tons of coal produced every year east of the Mississippi [4], this would be a massive reduction in costs for the coal industry.

Spoiler: NOTES

NOTES:

[1] Affectionately known as “Taylortucky”.

[2] Based on an actual OTL article from this time: “Coal Industry is Waging Battle for its Life”, Detroit News, Feb. 2, 1967

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_River_and_Kanawha_Canal

[4] https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.php?t=ptb0702

 

[generalurist]

This will keep Appalachia going longer than OTL, but RIP the atmosphere.

 

[dartingfog]

February 14, 1967

Canadian Bank Act threatens US-Canada relations

While the divide in North America widens as a result of Canadian demands for compensation for contaminated land, another crisis is looming. The current finance minister, Mitchell Sharp, has reintroduced a measure that would control foreign banking in Canada. The measure would affect the operations of the Mercantile Bank, a subsidiary of Citibank and the only US-based bank currently operating in Canada. [1] The measure limits ownership of banks by a single entity or corporation to 25%, which would require that Citibank divest 75% of its share in Mercantile Bank.

Mr. Sharp’s measure comes as Canada experiences a surge in economic nationalism on its 100th birthday. Inspired by “A Choice for Canada” [2], a book written by former Canadian minister of finance and Minister without Portfolio Walter Gordon [3], Canadians are increasingly wishing to put distance between themselves and their powerful southern neighbo(u)r. In his book, Mr. Gordon expresses the belief that nationalism is good for Canada. [4] He calls for limits on the level of American investment in Canadian industry, which he sees as a threat to the nation’s sovereignty and economy. The book’s success has put political pressure on Prime Minister Pearson to do something about the issue. Three weeks ago, the Prime Minister announced the creation of a committee to examine the influence of foreign ownership on Canadian industry.

If the measure passes, the stage appears set for retaliation. For example, the US could respond by restricting Canadian banking in the US, ending Canada’s oil import quota exemptions, and by limiting natural gas imports. But Canada could also respond in a number of ways, including ending special trade deals like the recent free-trade Auto Pact. [5]

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] Tolerant Allies: Canada and the United States, 1963-1968, pp. 158-162

[2] Walter Gordon and the Rise of Canadian Nationalism, pp. 143-153.

[3] As OTL: https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v12/persons

[4] But not too much nationalism, Quebec.

[5] From two OTL articles: Detroit News, Feb. 9, 1967 and Feb. 14, 1967

 

[traveller76]

Canada might start looking to the Pacific for new trading opportunities.

 

[dartingfog]

February 17, 1967

Rare Glimpse of Fermi Site Cleanup

More than four months after the Fermi meltdown, officials have granted reporters a glance inside the evacuation zone around the Fermi plant. Activity at the site has been rather secretive, and few reporters have been permitted to enter the evacuation zone.

The site of the disaster has been greatly transformed. Since November, several thousand tons of radioactive debris have been removed from the Fermi site. Most of this material was disposed nearby, but the more severely contaminated items were taken to the Savannah River Plant in South Carolina. Millions of gallons of contaminated liquid have been collected and disposed of disposed of in sanitary trenches around the site. Soil with high radioactive contamination levels has been placed in drums and shipped to the Savannah River Plant in South Carolina for burial. About 500 acres, or nearly one square mile around the plant, has been decontaminated by this technique, producing 600,000 barrels of soil. [1]

The site is a veritable hive of activity at all hours of the day. The reactor itself is now covered in a large concrete “sarcophagus” intended to prevent further release of radioactive material. The demolition of about 1,000 houses along Goddard Road, the northern border of the evacuation zone, has been completed. Immediately south of this line, soil has been piled up into a mound 10 feet high topped with a barbed wire fence. Similar reinforcements exist on the mostly-rural western and southern borders of the evacuation zone. Within the evacuation zone, most houses and other buildings remain standing.

We visited a base camp of temporary housing for workers, which has been built at the southern end of the evacuation zone, just north of Toledo. After being cleared through the checkpoint, we were escorted to a parking lot at the edge of the base. From this staging area, cleanup workers suit up and are transported on buses to the Fermi site. They travel up a now-deserted I-75 [2], before making an exit just north of the abandoned city of Monroe. Our reporters were denied access to the site, which is restricted only to site workers.

Over 2,000 people – mostly soldiers – are working at the site at any given time. To avoid excessive absorption of radiation, shifts at the site are limited to just two hours per day. Soldiers recruited for this effort are generally volunteers who are given a choice of cleanup or a 12-month tour in Vietnam. [3] Unsurprisingly, there is no shortage of volunteers for cleanup duty. Rotations at the Fermi site last one month, as longer deployments are considered too risky.

Safety is of utmost importance at the Fermi site. Upon their return to the staging area, the buses are hosed down. The workers take special decontamination showers to remove any traces of radioactive particles. Onsite personnel undergo regular contamination monitoring through nasal swabs and urinalysis to ensure that radiation doses are kept within safe levels. Workers who are injured or show signs of exposure to radiation receive treatment from medical doctors at the base camp. [4]

Despite the great progress made, there is much work to be done. Cleanup is expected to last until the end of 1969.

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] Modeled after the cleanup of two bomber crashes that took place at about the same time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Thule_Air_Base_B-52_crash

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Palomares_B-52_crash

[2] Which was quite new at the time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_75_in_Michigan#History

[3] https://www.historynet.com/vietnam-war-the-individual-rotation-policy.htm

[4] For reference: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/...hernobyl-and-lived-to-tell-the-tale-1.7438495

 

[dartingfog]

February 23, 1967

Federal court to hear case on Price-Anderson Act

What may be the largest lawsuit in American history is now headed for federal court. Yesterday, a consolidated class action complaint was filed against Detroit Edison and the Power Reactor Development Company, operators of the now-destroyed Fermi plant near Monroe, Michigan. The class action suit consolidates the thousands of individual suits filed since the meltdown (the first lawsuit was filed on October 6, one day after the meltdown). There are 300,000 plaintiffs named in the consolidated class action complaint, which includes residents and business owners from the evacuation zone surrounding the Fermi plant. [1]

The plaintiffs claim that the Price-Anderson Act violates their constitutional rights. Their case rests on the Fifth Amendment clause that protects individuals against the deprivation of life, liberty, or property without due process of law. [2][3] The plaintiffs say that they have not been fairly compensated for their losses as a result of the Fermi meltdown. The Price-Anderson Act caps liabilities for commercial atomic power plant operators in the event of an accident at $560 million. [4] So far, there have been over 300,000 claimants under the Act, according to insurance pools established shortly after the accident. This works out to just under $2,000 per claimant, only a fraction of the value of their properties, never mind the potential health problems caused by the meltdown. The plaintiffs claim that approximately $30 billion in damages have been caused by the meltdown, or roughly $100,000 per claimant.

The case will be heard by the Eastern District of Michigan US Federal District Court. The court filing brings some small comfort to those who have lost their homes, possessions, and possibly health as a result of the Fermi meltdown. But they likely face a long legal battle. The outcome of the case has implications for atomic power plants throughout the country. If the Price-Anderson Act is found to be unconstitutional, liability insurance may become too expensive for plant operators.

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] https://casetext.com/case/in-re-three-mile-island-litigation

[2] Modeled off a real-life case: “Duke Power Company v. Carolina Environmental Study Group” https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/431/203/2184897/

[3] Historic U.S. Court Cases: An Encyclopedia, Volume 1, pp. 569-572

[4] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRPT-108srpt218/html/CRPT-108srpt218.htm

 

[dartingfog]

February 25, 1967

Polls show Nixon, Romney in dead heat in New Hampshire

One year from their probable showdown in New Hampshire primary, former Vice President Richard Nixon’s lead over Michigan Governor George Romney is far less substantial than many Republican politicians around the country believe it to be. Indeed, Nixon’s advantage in New Hampshire is so small it approaches the meaningless. Interviews with Republicans across the state throughout the state revealed that Nixon would defeat Romney if the primary were held now. While some voters question Romney's handling of the post-Fermi evacuation, many believe that Republicans have a better chance of defeating Johnson with Romney than with Nixon.

Gallup poll shows that Richard Nixon emerges as the top choice of Republican voters. However, the Harris Survey reported that at a time when Governor George Romney appears to have a good chance against President Johnson, Nixon seems to be “sinking in popularity.” In a direct showdown with all other GOP potential nominees out of it, Romney defeats Nixon by 59-41 percent.

Despite the favorable poll results for Romney in this bellwether state, Nixon’s greater name recognition and support among many in the party establishment means that Romney has an uphill battle for the nomination. That said, Romney could alter the picture by establishing a lively organization and waging a vigorous, articulate campaign. One hope of the Romney supporters is that the 1964 Rockefeller and Lodge organizations can be combined behind Romney.

On the Democratic side, rumors are swirling that Senator Robert Kennedy will challenge President Johnson for the nomination in ’68. The two men have been publicly at odds over the conduct of the Vietnam War, fueling speculation of a primary challenge. However, the Gallup and Harris polls differ in their assessments of the popularity of Mr. Johnson and Senator Kennedy. In January, the Gallup poll reported that “Senator Kennedy’s star looms larger than ever on the political horizon”, while the Harris poll said “Kennedy’s standing with the public has taken a tumble.” [1]

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] A combination of three OTL newspaper articles: “Romney Trails Nixon in N.H., Voters Report”, Detroit News, Mar. 5, 1967; “Romney Ahead of Nixon – Or Is It Vice-Versa?”, Washington Post, Feb. 15, 1967; “Nixon’s Narrow Lead in New Hampshire Is Surprising”, Detroit News, Mar. 28, 1967.