How We Lost Detroit: The Fermi Nuclear Disaster

[dartingfog]

October 7, 1966

Fermi evacuation radius expands; hundreds sickened by radiation.

As the Fermi plant continues to burn slowly, many people living near the plant have been hospitalized with symptoms consistent with radiation exposure. Monroe Mayor Morton Cohn [1] has ordered an evacuation of the city of Monroe, just five miles west of the Fermi plant. Residents of Berlin and Frenchtown Townships have also been given evacuation orders. Children and pregnant women are at particular risk. In Ontario, evacuations have been ordered for rural areas of southern Essex County, between Amherstberg and Kingsville [2].

The wind is expected to shift from southwesterly to south-southwesterly around 5 P.M. this afternoon and will remain south-southwesterly for the remainder of this evening and all of tomorrow [3]. This has prompted voluntary evacuations for the entire Downriver area. Residents of the City of Detroit are asked to stay indoors for the entirety of the day tomorrow.

On a better note, Vice President Humphrey was released from the hospital early this morning. Doctors state that he exhibits no signs of radiation sickness. He will fly back to Washington, D.C. for further testing. Assuming Humphrey receives a clean bill of health, he then will resume his nationwide pre-election tour, supporting Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania.

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Spoiler: NOTES

[1] http://politicalgraveyard.com/geo/MI/ofc/monroe.html

[2] At the time, no recommended evacuation zones existed around nuclear power plants in either the U.S. or Canada. It was not until 1970 that “emergency planning zones” around nuclear power plants were established in the U.S. (I couldn’t find anything for Canada): https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/emerg-preparedness/history.html

[3] Hourly wind direction data for Detroit Metro Airport (the nearest weather station) for 1966 is not publically available. However, wind data are available for Windsor, Ontario on a Canadian government website:

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?timeframe=1&hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2014-10-02&dlyRange=1940-08-01%7C2014-10-01&mlyRange=1940-01-01%7C2014-10-01&StationID=4716&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=specDate&StartYear=1966&EndYear=1967&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=windsor&Year=1966&Month=10&Day=7

 

[Bookmark1995]

Can't wait for more.

 

[dartingfog]

October 8, 1966

Governor Romney declares statewide emergency; evacuation orders in effect for downriver suburbs

Southwesterly winds and inversion conditions have necessitated the expansion of the evacuation zone to include the Downriver suburbs of Detroit [1]. Public health officials have stated that the number of individuals reported to have been stricken with radiation poisoning is now over 1,000.

Accompanying the evacuation orders was a declaration of a statewide emergency by the governor. Governor Romney took to television and radio last night to make a public announcement regarding the emergency. Romney has ordered the Michigan Army National Guard and state police to aid in the evacuation of affected areas. Every school bus, truck, and non-emergency vehicle in southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio has been commandeered into service to ensure evacuees can be quickly and safely sent out of harm’s way. Also as part of the declaration, Governor Romney has banned the sale of milk produced in Monroe and Wayne counties [2].

Federal officials are monitoring the spread of radiation from the plant. President Johnson has been briefed on the situation and said that he has “assured Governor Romney that all possible help will be made available.” [3] In Canada, the evacuation efforts have been marred by disorder, and the normally polite and law-abiding citizens have become common thieves. The mayor of Windsor, Ontario, John Wheelton [4], has called for calm after looting broke out in that city’s downtown last night. Windsor police say that the rampant theft will not be tolerated.

---------------------------------------------

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] “And by the next day, the wind had shifted to 220 [degrees], a course that we take any radioactive fallout smack into the lap of Windsor and much of Detroit…During these days, the weather grows less and less cooperative, with the wind shifting so that any escape of radiation would cover the maximum population of Detroit and its spreading suburbs. The day of the accident marked the beginning of a warm spell, so any escaping radiation would … lazily under the nocturnal inversion conditions.” WALD, p. 211

[2] A major source of contamination in OTL: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2017/ph241/dadabbo1/ and http://users.owt.com/smsrpm/Chernobyl/glbrad.html

[3] In 1966, disasters were considered to be a state issue, not a federal one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/12/04/how-federal-government-became-responsible-disaster-relief/?noredirect=on

[4] http://www.windsorpubliclibrary.com/?page_id=62911

 

[Apollo 20]

Very good stuff. I would have been 4 during this TL and living in Toledo, 20 miles or so from Monroe. The impact on the whole region would have been significant. In October, the prevailing winds are out of the northwest as colder weather sets in; I can see this badly affecting Lake Erie and the Ohio shore of it as radiation and the fear of it blows in that general direction.

If you want some local flavor for this (including actual weather data), the Toledo Blade is on-line at Google Newspapers.

 

[Unknown]

Hope this doesn't affect Dayton (my mom had just graduated from high school) or Columbus...

 

[dartingfog]

Very good stuff. I would have been 4 during this TL and living in Toledo, 20 miles or so from Monroe. The impact on the whole region would have been significant. In October, the prevailing winds are out of the northwest as colder weather sets in; I can see this badly affecting Lake Erie and the Ohio shore of it as radiation and the fear of it blows in that general direction.

If you want some local flavor for this (including actual weather data), the Toledo Blade is on-line at Google Newspapers.

You bring up a good point about the wind, which is an important detail that I've tried to convey in my fake news stories. Judging by the Toledo Blade forecasts from that week [1], the winds were blowing away from Toledo and toward Detroit and Windsor. Toledo wouldn't be affected that much, since it is located southwest of the Fermi plant (meaning you would need a northeasterly wind for contaminated air to drift over that city). During the week following the Fermi meltdown on October 5, 1966, the winds were consistently coming out of the west and southwest:

October 6: southwesterly
October 7: southwesterly
October 8 (not available, but predicted on the 7th): southwesterly
October 9: southwesterly
October 10: west to northwesterly
October 11: "light and variable tonight"
October 12: southwesterly (prediction from Oct. 11)

[1] Available here, starting with October 5:

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661005&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661006&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661007&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661009&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661010&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661011&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=8_tS2Vw13FcC&dat=19661012&printsec=frontpage&hl=en

 

[dartingfog]

October 9, 1966

Detroit remains calm despite radiation concerns

An eerie calm has fallen over the city of Detroit. For the past two days, southwesterly winds have carried radioactive particles from the Fermi plant towards Detroit. With rain in the forecast, there is increased risk of contamination. Officials have urged the residents of Detroit not to panic, but to evacuate the city in an orderly fashion [1].

Thousands of people in the Detroit area have shown up at hospitals claiming to have radiation poisoning. Doctors, however, say that most of the symptoms reported by patients aren’t consistent with radiation poisoning, and claim that the symptoms are the result of a form of mass hysteria known as radiophobia [2]. They say that Detroiters have not received a large enough dose of radiation to cause radiation poisoning, which typically only occurs when someone is exposed to high doses of radiation, or lower doses for long periods of time.

Nevertheless, officials are trying their best to inform the public of the danger posed by radiation, without unduly alarming them. Mayor Cavanaugh, attempting to allay residents’ fears, issued the following statement:

State and local officials have declared a state of emergency for the city of Detroit. Evacuation is not mandatory, but is recommended. While officials have determined the threat to public health to be minimal, all residents are urged to take precautions. Those who wish to leave the city are advised to leave in a peaceful and civil manner. Police are assisting all of those who wish to leave. Those who wish to remain in the city are advised to stay in their homes until further notice; children and pregnant women are at particular risk.

There is no need to panic. This voluntary evacuation is a precautionary measure. When the threat to public health is deemed to be over, authorities will announce an “all clear” message on radio, television, and in newspapers.

Despite the fears of some, most residents are not concerned about the radiation, which is invisible to all of the senses [3]. Detroiters are carrying on with their usual Sunday business, like going to church, visiting family, or playing pinochle. Most see no reason to leave, like one homeowner we interviewed on Detroit’s west side. “Leave? What’s the big deal? I thought there was going to be some big explosion or something. I don’t care what the government tells me,” he said, puffing on a cigarette.

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Spoiler: NOTES

:

[1] This is a daunting task. As stated by Fuller, WALD, p. 6, “For the Michigan State Police, who bore the responsibility for the whole state, the task of evacuating Detroit would be flatly impossible because the auto city had put all its faith in public transport.”

[2] Already well known in 1966: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiophobia

[3] As much as some might think such an event might cause mass panic, keep in mind that there was no internet in 1966 and many people didn’t even have TVs. Radiation is invisible, odorless, and tasteless and because of this I think many people won’t take the threat seriously. People in the 1960s understood the dangers of nuclear weapons full well, but meltdowns won’t have the same psychological effect.

 

[EbolaMan131]

Nice update

 

[Johnrankins]

Detroit would be far from wiped out. The worst nuclear disaster in history killed 31 people and may kill up to 4,000 more but as far as I can tell there have been no detected excess cancer deaths in the 30 years that passed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster It is going to be harder and harder to detect as people are getting older and older and their chance of getting cancer keeps increasing. They will have to detect it soon if it is going to have any detectable effect at all because the people living back then are getting old and are at an age where dying of cancer is far from rare.

 

[dartingfog]

Detroit would be far from wiped out. The worst nuclear disaster in history killed 31 people and may kill up to 4,000 more but as far as I can tell there have been no detected excess cancer deaths in the 30 years that passed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_due_to_the_Chernobyl_disaster It is going to be harder and harder to detect as people are getting older and older and their chance of getting cancer keeps increasing. They will have to detect it soon if it is going to have any detectable effect at all because the people living back then are getting old and are at an age where dying of cancer is far from rare.

Agreed that Detroit wouldn't be wiped out, but Detroit's fate will rely largely on public perception. Even if not that many people die, the stigma of living only a few miles away from a major nuclear release is not going to help Detroit's reputation, which was already deteriorating in the 1960s. There is considerably more freedom of movement in the United States than in Belarus and Ukraine, and there are more desirable places to live in the U.S. Not only will residents move out, corporations won't invest there, and immigrants won't move there.

Also, the exact number of people who have died and will die prematurely as a result of Chernobyl is very difficult to pin down. It takes some very sophisticated epidemiological statistics to determine this, and the data are lacking. The Soviets were a very secretive bunch and didn't record a lot of health data. And Belarus and Ukraine haven't been much better. We'll probably never know the exact number of deaths that can be directly attributed to Chernobyl.

 

[dartingfog]

October 10, 1966


Black rain falls on Detroit, Pennsylvania

Half an inch of black rain fell on the city and its suburbs last night. The rain fell heavily for two hours between 11:00 and 1:00, accompanied with southerly winds [1]. The cause of the black rainstorm is believed to be the Fermi plant, still smoldering from the meltdown and explosion that occurred near Monroe five days ago. Shortly after 11:00 PM, the Fermi plant once again caught fire as rains poured down on the residual sodium left in the core.

Residents woke up to a dark, sticky residue that covered everything - roads, cars, lawns, and trees. Officials say that residents should not touch or taste the substance, nor should they try to clean off surfaces where the residue has accumulated. Residents in Detroit, Downriver, Windsor, and Macomb County have reported that the air has a “metallic” taste and paint was seen peeling off the walls of their homes. [2]

The black rain was not limited to the Detroit area. Unusually heavy rain also fell on northwest Pennsylvania overnight. Over three inches of rain fell on the town of Warren, Pennsylvania, about 50 miles east of Erie [3]. The nearby town of Bradford received similarly high rainfall totals. Not only were rainfall totals heavy, the rains (like those in Detroit) were black in color.


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Spoiler: NOTES

[1] As attested by OTL weather data from Windsor, Ontario: http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?timeframe=1&Year=1966&Month=10&Day=9&hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2014-10-02&dlyRange=1940-08-01%7C2014-10-01&mlyRange=1940-01-01%7C2014-10-01&StationID=4716&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1965&EndYear=1967&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=windsor

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/hourly_data_e.html?timeframe=1&hlyRange=1953-01-01%7C2014-10-02&dlyRange=1940-08-01%7C2014-10-01&mlyRange=1940-01-01%7C2014-10-01&StationID=4716&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1965&EndYear=1967&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=windsor&Year=1966&Month=10&Day=10

[2] As happened in OTL after a rainstorm 3 days after the Chernobyl meltdown: https://www.politico.eu/article/anniversary-chernobyl-poisoned-my-childhood-chernivitz-ukraine-1986-exposure-radiation-thallium/ and http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/projects/Chernobyl-30-years/index.html

[3] This is much heavier than what nearby areas like Pittsburgh and Buffalo received in OTL. For comparison, OTL rainfall on October 9-11, 1966:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094847/detail


Buffalo, NY: 0.47 in (12 mm)

Rochester, NY: 0.35 in (9 mm)

Syracuse, NY: No data

Binghamton, NY: 0.30 in (8 mm)

State College, PA: 0.26 in (7 mm)

Erie, PA: No data

Pittsburgh, PA: 0.58 in (15 mm)

 

[Unknown]

Oh, this is bad...

 

[Johnrankins]

Agreed that Detroit wouldn't be wiped out, but Detroit's fate will rely largely on public perception. Even if not that many people die, the stigma of living only a few miles away from a major nuclear release is not going to help Detroit's reputation, which was already deteriorating in the 1960s. There is considerably more freedom of movement in the United States than in Belarus and Ukraine, and there are more desirable places to live in the U.S. Not only will residents move out, corporations won't invest there, and immigrants won't move there.

Also, the exact number of people who have died and will die prematurely as a result of Chernobyl is very difficult to pin down. It takes some very sophisticated epidemiological statistics to determine this, and the data are lacking. The Soviets were a very secretive bunch and didn't record a lot of health data. And Belarus and Ukraine haven't been much better. We'll probably never know the exact number of deaths that can be directly attributed to Chernobyl.

Some, no doubt. However, since people are still living in the CF that is Detroit after decades of decline I doubt it would last. The 1960s were before the near death of the US auto industry.

We pretty much know by this time that exposures to less than 10 rem of radiation has no noticible effect on cancer rates. The Japanese and the US keep good records and kept an eye on atomic bomb survivors. Those who got less than 10 rem of radiation have no larger cancer rate than anyone else.

 

[dartingfog]

October 11, 1966

Looting breaks out in Detroit as residents flee city; thousands trapped on roads

Yesterday’s black rainstorm has led to panic in a previously complacent Detroit [1]. Despite the mayor’s call for calm, his wisdom has fallen on deaf ears. Major freeways, including I-94, I-75, and I-96, are jammed with cars. Evacuation efforts have been an exercise in confusion as police are overwhelmed by the magnitude of the exodus from Detroit.

The city of 1.6 million people is quickly emptying out as families pack up their belongings for parts unknown. Hotels and motels in cities like Flint, Lansing, and Grand Rapids are already full. Several up-north resorts are reported to have re-opened for lodgers, despite being closed for over a month. Some are taking advantage of the situation by charging as much as $50 per night [2]. Those who can’t find a place to stay are staying with relatives or have gone to campgrounds.

But not everyone in Detroit can leave. Many of the city’s poorer residents are stuck in the city, as they do not have cars. Black Detroiters are especially at a disadvantage. There have been several reports that local hospitals are turning away Black patients, while admitting Whites who report radiation symptoms.

Others have taken advantage of the situation by engaging in criminal activities. Looting has been reported at several businesses on West Grand Boulevard, west of Woodward [3]. In response, Mayor Cavanaugh has enacted a citywide curfew between the hours of 9 p.m. and 6 a.m. The curfew also prohibits sales of alcohol and firearms. Incidents of violence were reported across the metro area as frustrated motorists fought to get out of the city as soon as possible. Several individuals are reported dead or injured in confrontations between angry drivers trying to escape the city [4].

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Spoiler: NOTES

[1] Some of you might be thinking: if they knew it was going to rain, why didn’t they evacuate sooner? The problem is that the meteorologists didn’t know that. The state of weather prediction was primitive in 1966 – weather could only be predicted a day in advance with any reliability.

[2] This would have been a lot of money for a hotel room in 1966.

[3] Not far from 12th and Clairmount.

[4] Among those killed in these road-rage incidents was 3-year-old Lawrence Nassar of Farmington Township, Michigan. Such incidents are tragically not uncommon in Detroit: https://www.freep.com/story/news/lo...freeway-shooting-christian-miller/2722887002/

 

[Bookmark1995]

This is gonna make the Woodstock traffic jam look calm.

 

[RyuDrago]

I wonder how it would affect the US car market TTL... well maybe as a Italian may be glad cause would mean more FIAT vehicles will be exported in America (as for the European and Japanese major companies when they would feel the proverbial blood in the water).

 

[Unknown]

Yeah, this could make OTL's Detroit riots look tame...

BTW, @dartingfog, if you ever get the chance, watch the documentary 12th and Clairmount, which is made up of home movies from people living in Detroit at the time of the riots...

Also, glad you got rid of Larry...

With regards to Detroit, it's not the actual damage from the meltdown that's important, it's the public perception of what the damage will be that's important, methinks (look at Three Mile Island for an example)...

 

[Unknown]

Just thought of something else: the line "Take him to Detroit!" (from Kentucky Fried Movie) is gonna be interesting ITTL...

Also, the NFL Detroit Lions had a game on October 9, 1966, against the Los Angeles Rams OTL; I'm assuming that game still goes on ITTL...

Also, where are the Detroit Red Wings, Detroit Tigers, Detroit Pistons, and Lions going to move, assuming the teams move out of Detroit, @dartingfog...

Good TL and waiting for more...

 

[dartingfog]

Just thought of something else: the line "Take him to Detroit!" (from Kentucky Fried Movie) is gonna be interesting ITTL...

Also, the NFL Detroit Lions had a game on October 9, 1966, against the Los Angeles Rams OTL; I'm assuming that game still goes on ITTL...

Also, where are the Detroit Red Wings, Detroit Tigers, Detroit Pistons, and Lions going to move, assuming the teams move out of Detroit, @dartingfog...

Good TL and waiting for more...

Regarding sports, three of those teams were inactive at the time, but both the Pistons and Red Wings seasons start soon:
Pistons: Season begins October 15, 1966
Red Wings: Season begins October 19, 1966
Tigers: Last game of season played on October 2, 1966

As for the Lions, the game was held (as in OTL) in Detroit, though ticket sales were down. The next two games are away games, so they go on as scheduled. The next scheduled home game was on October 30, 1966 versus the Green Bay Packers.

I'll cover what happens to these games in one of the next posts.

 

[dartingfog]

October 12, 1966

Violence breaks out after Detroit resident misidentified as looter shot, killed

One week after the meltdown of the Fermi atomic plant, an explosion of violence has gripped Detroit. It began after a twenty-four year old Black male was killed by police outside of his own home yesterday near Linwood and West Grand Boulevard on Detroit’s west side. Police reportedly mistook him for a looter as he removed some personal items from his home. News of the shooting has caused outrage in Detroit, which is already in a state of turmoil after the Fermi disaster.

As news of the shooting spread, the neighborhood erupted into chaos. Neighbors started throwing rocks and bottles at police, injuring several officers. Nearby storefronts, closed due to the evacuation of many city residents, were the targets of looters, who broke windows and stole merchandise. Several buildings are reportedly on fire, and the Detroit Fire Department has been sent to battle the blazes.

Additional police officers have been sent to quell the violence. Evacuation efforts in the Detroit have stopped, and officers are being re-assigned to restore peace in the city. Mayor Cavanagh has requested Governor Romney for assistance from the Michigan State Police and Michigan National Guard. [1]

Spoiler: NOTES

[1] https://www.freep.com/pages/interactives/1967-detroit-riot/