How We Lost Detroit: The Fermi Nuclear Disaster

Oct. 15, 1970
October 15, 1970

Kidnapped Canadian, British officials released by Quebec radicals


Five days after his capture by Front de Libération du Québec (FLQ) terrorists, [1] Deputy Premier of Quebec Pierre Laporte has been found alive, along with British diplomat James Cross. Both men were discovered unharmed on the side of the road in a rural area near Montreal, Quebec. Laporte was last seen playing football with his nephew at his home in Montreal, which is where he was kidnapped at gunpoint by the radical separatist organization. Their release comes hours after Prime Minister Walter Gordon helped negotiate a compromise to release 20 imprisoned FLQ members through Robert Lemieux, a lawyer representing the radical group. [2]

While the Prime Minister has a “sympathetic understanding” toward Quebec’s desire for greater sovereignty, [3] he strongly condemned the violent actions of the FLQ. However, Gordon’s handling of the crisis has been criticized by Minister of Justice Pierre Trudeau, who believes that Gordon has not gone far enough in dealing with the crisis. Trudeau believes that invoking the War Measures Act, which would curtail civil liberties and give police far-reaching powers to arrest and detain individuals without bail, would end the FLQ threat once and for all.

Gordon, on the other hand, prefers a less confrontational approach to the crisis, for fear that a heavy-handed approach could escalate into full-blown civil war. “Conceivably, this could lead to civil war with all the horror and the hate that this implies. While all of us might hope that somehow or other such insanity would be avoided, there could be no certainty that it would be,” said Gordon said in a recent speech. “In the light of this uncertainty, we should be concentrating our efforts on seeing that such a catastrophe is avoided… We should be willing to do almost anything to lessen the existing tensions.” [4]

In response to requests made by the Quebec government and the provincial National Assembly, Canadian Forces have been deployed to assist local police in maintaining order and locating those responsible for the kidnappings. Security has been redoubled in the national capital of Ottawa, where tanks now guard the Parliament building. The kidnappings are part of a broader trend towards separatism in the province of Quebec. After the separatist Parti Québécois won 7 seats in the National Assembly earlier this year [5], fears are growing that Quebec will soon opt to declare its independence from Canada, which would break the country in half.


[1] As OTL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Crisis
[2] Perhaps this is a bit naïve on my part, but I wonder if given his sympathies toward Quebec, Gordon could have negotiated the release of Laporte and Cross. I don’t know if he would have been successful or not, of course. And as distasteful negotiating with terrorists sounds, this was not considered taboo at the time, and was supported by many prominent figures in Quebec: http://faculty.marianopolis.edu/c.belanger/quebechistory/chronos/october.htm
[3] I don’t know what Gordon’s reaction was to the October Crisis (he was out of Parliament by that time), but given his sympathy toward Quebec and criticism of Trudeau’s position on Quebec a scant two years later, I tend to think that unlike Trudeau, he would not have invoked the War Measures Act: https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1972/9/1/walter-gordon-on-giving-quebec-its-due
[4] As Gordon said in an editorial in 1972 regarding the possibility of a violent separation of Quebec: https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1972/9/1/last-chance-for-canada
[5] As OTL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Quebec_general_election
 
You really do hate Canada don't you?

First you have them accept a catastrophically awful deal from the US on compensation for the disaster, for no reason and with zero consequences for the US. No case in the International Court of Justice or action against Canadian based US firms, nothing. All the dozens of legal, diplomatic and political routes available ignored.

Now you have them teach every terrorist, extremist and bankrobber that taking hostages 'works' - the Canadian government will just roll over and give them what they want. There is going to be a spate of these crimes now as every other crazy with a gun starts taking hostages and issuing demands. Given at some point even appeasers realise the plan is band it will get horribly bloody before 'No negotiations with terrorists' is re-established as the norm.

Either would be bad, but both is just vindictive.
 
Nov. 12, 1970
November 12, 1970

Muskie chooses Gofman to head Department of Conservation


President Muskie has nominated Dr. John Gofman [1] to head the newly-created Department of Conservation. Dr. Gofman, along with his colleague, Dr. Arthur Tamplin, has been a vocal critic of U.S. radiation dose limits and the Atomic Energy Commission. In 1969, he and Tamplin concluded that the risk of cancer from radiation exposure was far greater than estimates the government was using to set limits on public exposure. [2] Gofman’s research has received great praise from many in the scientific community, with talk of his work being worthy of a Nobel Prize. [3]

Gofman will work with the Muskie administration to develop a comprehensive plan for combatting pollution, preserving nature, and finding alternative means of energy production. Gofman thinks that many thousands of deaths may have been caused by the Fermi meltdown, and has called for a five-year moratorium on the licensing of new nuclear power plants until the public health consequences can be studied. [2] While Gofman’s research has been criticized by the AEC, President Muskie warned the agency against any “potential threat to the free and open discussion of scientific issues.” [4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gofman
[2] http://www.epi.umn.edu/cvdepi/eulogy-obit/john-gofman-1918-2007/
[3] Very different from how he was treated in OTL: https://www.nytimes.com/1970/07/08/...-critics-agency-says-it-has-never-curbed.html
[4] The Atomic Energy Commission under Nixon: Adjusting to Troubled Times, p. 135
 
Mar. 23, 1971
March 23, 1971

Census shows Detroit lost half a million people since 1960


In the wake of the Fermi meltdown, the Motor City is looking a lot emptier than it did a few years ago. People are fleeing the city in droves; even Motown Records is moving out of Motown. [1] The latest census shows a massive drop in population in Detroit, which lost more than 500,000 people since 1960. The city’s population now stands at about 1.1 million. [2] Most of this decrease is thought to have occurred in the last 4 years.

Since the last census in 1960, Wayne County’s population fell by 600,000 people due to the Downriver evacuation and population loss in the City of Detroit, though this was offset somewhat by population gains in Detroit’s western suburbs. Across 8 Mile, the population of Oakland County increased to over 1 million, while Macomb County’s population increased to more than 750,000. [3] However, in Monroe County, the location of the Fermi plant, more than half of its population was lost, falling to just under 40,000 people. [4]

While some of Detroit’s population loss can be attributed on people moving out of the state, much of the loss is the result of the mass exodus of middle-class whites to the suburbs. Fears of crime and radiation, along with the loss of businesses to the suburbs, are believed to have contributed to this departure.

 
Oct. 5, 1971
October 5, 1971

Evacuation zone declared wildlife refuge


On the fifth anniversary of the Fermi disaster, President Muskie signed a bill into law that will turn the evacuation zone around the Fermi plant near Detroit, Michigan into a vast nature preserve. The Enrico Fermi Wildlife Refuge, as it will be named, will encompass more than 500 square miles in Monroe and Wayne counties in southeastern Michigan. [1][2] While cleanup of the Fermi site was declared completed last year, additional work will continue to maintain the site to ensure that no additional radiation is released into the environment.

Even after just five years of abandonment, the evacuation zone is already being reclaimed by nature. Farmland is slowly turning into forest, and small saplings can be seen growing in lawns and along roadsides. Feral dogs and cats as well as former farm animals, like pigs and chickens, run rampant. However, rare and endangered species, like the bald eagle, are making a comeback in the area. [3]

 
I know its not really the focus of the TL, but how did the Democrats did under Pres Muskie durind the midterms?
Also has there been movies/books made out of the disaster? It maybe kicked of a media crazy about that
 
I know its not really the focus of the TL, but how did the Democrats did under Pres Muskie durind the midterms?
Also has there been movies/books made out of the disaster? It maybe kicked of a media crazy about that

The Democrats gain one seat in the House, while the Republicans gain 4 seats in the Senate. That's considerably worse for the Democrats than OTL, largely because whichever party controls the White House usually fares poorly in the first midterm. With Muskie as President, the Democrats don't do as well as they did under Nixon.

No major books or movies so far as it is still recent history in 1971. For the most part, most written material about the accident consists a lot of dry technical reports and scientific articles. There is some right-wing conspiracy stuff about President Johnson's role in the disaster, as well as environmentalist pamphlets about the dangers of nuclear power.
 
Dec. 31, 1971
December 31, 1971

US Withdraws from Vietnam


After more than 42,000 American soldiers gave up their lives, the last troops are finally coming home. President Muskie is holding to his promise to end the war before his 1972 re-election campaign by withdrawing the 50,000 or so soldiers remaining in Vietnam. In return for withdrawal of all United States troops, ships and bombers, the North Vietnamese have guaranteed the safe return of the withdrawing forces and the release of American POWs. However, no cease‐fire or agreement on an over‐all peace plan has been reached. While Muskie urges the government in Saigon to move toward a political accommodation with the Communists, or else lose indirect United States military support, no such plans have been made.

Leading Republican candidates for President, such as former Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew, criticized Muskie’s decision, believing that South Vietnam will soon fall to the Communists without American support. Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS), and Senator William E. Brock III (R-TN) called Mr. Muskie's statement “the worst kind of gutter politics.” [1]

 
Jan. 13, 1972
January 13, 1972

Report: Government seeded clouds over Pennsylvania after Fermi


Recently declassified documents from the Church Committee show that in the days after the Fermi disaster, the military deliberately seeded clouds over northwestern Pennsylvania. The operation was part of a secret government program to prevent radioactive rain from falling on major east coast cities. On October 7 and 8, 1966, jets seeded clouds over Alleghany and Susquehannock State Forests, which resulted in a deluge of black-colored rain. [1] This area was chosen due to its sparse population and its location between Detroit and major east coast cities like New York. [2][3]

While the seeding of the clouds undoubtedly saved millions from exposure to radioactive contaminants, this news is little comfort for the residents of northwestern Pennsylvania. Residents are predictably angry that their lives were put at risk for the sake of New York City. As a result of this report, compensation for the Fermi accident will expand to three counties in Pennsylvania (Cameron, Clinton, and Potter) that were most strongly affected by cloud seeding.

[1] You may remember that I mentioned heavy rain in Pennsylvania early on in the TL. Cloud seeding had been used in the US as early as 1948: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding#United_States

[2] According to this map, these are the most sparsely inhabited counties in Pennsylvania: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pennsylvania_Population_Map_Cropped.png

[3] In OTL, the Soviets did the same thing: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1549366/How-we-made-the-Chernobyl-rain.html
 
Leading Republican candidates for President, such as former Maryland Governor Spiro Agnew, criticized Muskie’s decision, believing that South Vietnam will soon fall to the Communists without American support. Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS), and Senator William E. Brock III (R-TN) called Mr. Muskie's statement “the worst kind of gutter politics.” [1]
Oh oh
 
I'm planning to wind down this TL soon, so there will be bigger time jumps for the next few posts. It's been fun writing this, but I'm moving on to other projects.
 
Jul. 29, 1976
July 29, 1976

Fund established for Fermi cleanup personnel


President Rockefeller signed a bill into law today establishing a fund for workers injured as a result of the Fermi cleanup. Nearly ten years after the accident, there have been thousands of claims made by site liquidators. [1] The fund sets aside several hundred million dollars for the soldiers, construction workers, firefighters, scientists, and engineers who worked at the Fermi site between 1966 and 1970, when the site was most active. In order to be eligible for compensation, personnel must have been present at the Fermi site for at least one month.

Individuals involved in the cleanup of the Fermi site have reported a variety of health problems, especially cancer. [2] Despite the precautions taken to minimize radiation exposure at the Fermi site, many cleanup workers report serious health problems. Some skeptics, however, suggest that not all of the claimants’ health problems can be directly tied to radiation exposure. [3]

 
Oct. 5, 1996
October 5, 1996

Michigan: Thirty years after Fermi


Twenty-three thousand people used to live here. Now it’s a ghost town [1].

Thirty years after the Fermi disaster, what was once strictly off-limits has now become a tourist trap. For only $20, you and your family can take a brief tour to the site of the world’s worst nuclear accident. After signing a waiver acknowledging the risks of entering the evacuation zone, you get a ticket and your own personal radiation dosimeter. Taking a bus from Toledo, you can explore the long-abandoned city of Monroe, Michigan, only a few miles from where the Fermi power plant once stood. Monroe, where many plant workers lived, and the surrounding area will not be safe for human habitation for several centuries. Reclaimed by nature, deer walk down the overgrown streets. The pedestal once holding the bronze statue of General George Custer, long ago looted by scrappers, has become overgrown by vines.

Tourists can gawk at the now-dilapidated motel that was the site of President Humphrey’s ill-fated visit, where he was exposed to radiation that may have led to his death shortly after his inauguration. Also popular with visitors is the Navarre Branch Library, which was to be dedicated by Mr. Humphrey the day after the meltdown. The library never opened to the public, since it was scheduled to open in December 1966. Inside, the library is mostly intact, except for some damage from looters and vandals. Another popular site is the Newport Naval Air Station, the site of a missile battery in the 50s and 60s that was used as a staging area during the Fermi cleanup.


EP-171129159.jpg


Abandoned storefront in downtown Monroe, MI

IMG_1606.jpg


Newport Nike Missile Base, Newport, MI

In the northern part of the evacuation zone, in what were once the southern suburbs of Detroit, you can see the long-abandoned Riverside Osteopathic Hospital and McClouth Steel buildings.

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Riverside Osteopathic Hospital, Riverside, MI

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McClouth Steel, Trenton, MI

Just a short ferry ride away, you can see the abandoned Boblo amusement park on Bois Blanc Island, near the deserted Canadian town of Amherstberg [2]. Undoubtedly, without the accident, Boblo would still be active today.

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Boblo Island, Amherstberg, ON

In nearby Dearborn, just north of the Evacuation Zone, one can visit the Fermi Accident Exhibit at the Henry Ford Museum. Established in 1972, the exhibit holds many of artifacts related to the Fermi disaster, including a scale model of the plant, plant records, photographs, logbooks, worker identification cards, and even pieces of the plant itself. There is also a memorial to all of those who perished in the accident or as a result of participation in cleanup operations. [3]

[1] Obligatory Call of Duty reference. In OTL, Monroe is not exactly prosperous, but is doing okay for a Rust Belt town. This whole post is based on 30th anniversary articles about Chernobyl, like this one: http://www.latimes.com/visuals/phot...-power-plant-disaster-20160426-htmlstory.html

[2] All of the sites were abandoned in OTL, and it's important to mention that all are located outside of the city of Detroit. Image credit goes to Monroe News, nailhed.com, Detroiturbex.com, Detroit News, and mlive.com, respectively:
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/n...y/2017/06/27/trenton-mclouth-steel/103229830/
https://www.mlive.com/news/2018/09/the_haunting_remnants_of_boblo.html

[3] Modelled off of the real-life Chernobyl Museum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_National_Chernobyl_Museum Interestingly, the Henry Ford has an online collection on the Fermi plant in OTL: https://www.thehenryford.org/collec...ital-collections/archival-collections/367435/ You can also find some artifacts at Monroe Community College, a few miles from the plant: https://www.monroenews.com/news/2013/Aug/27/history-fermi-1-nuclear-power-plant-told-new-exhib
 
The world's worst nuclear accident... So Chernobyl never happened. Are some of the Fermi tourists in 1996 coming from Gorbachev's Soviet Union perhaps?
 
Final post
October 5, 2016
Fifty years after Fermi, can nuclear power make a comeback?


Today marks the fiftieth anniversary of America's worst nuclear accident. For the American public, nuclear power remains a controversial concept. The last active nuclear reactor in America ceased production in 1998, a casualty of green technology and public opinion. Over the past 20 years, expansion of solar, wind, tidal, and even geothermal power has largely replaced nuclear power. Wind farms can be seen all over the Midwest and solar panels cover much of Arizona.

However, experts warn that the U.S. faces an energy crisis. While nearly 30% of America's energy is generated from renewable sources, [1] there is an ever-growing demand for energy. Energy prices continue to rise and some fear the prospect of rolling blackouts. Pro-nuclear advocates are touting the concept of "safe nuclear" power. They point to successful experiments conducted in the late 1960s with thorium reactors led by former AEC chairman Alvin Weinberg as proof that nuclear power can be safe. However, this argument hasn't won over a skeptical public, who still oppose nuclear power by a 2-1 margin in most polls.

The meltdown has not been forgotten in the place where it occurred. Even a half century later, the effects of the Fermi disaster is still being felt among those living on the edge of the evacuation zone. Flint native Michael Moore's recent documentary, “Goddard Road”, [2]depicts life in the so-called “Cancer Belt” immediately north of the evacuation zone, in places like Ecorse, River Rouge, Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Dearborn, and Taylor. Poverty and abandonment are rampant, especially compared to more affluent areas like Flint. Even in nearby Detroit, a city of approximately 1.6 million people at the time of the Fermi accident, has shrunk to just under 500,000 residents. [3]

Convincing a skeptical public of the benefits of nuclear power will be an uphill battle for pro-nuclear advocates. But they remain undaunted, and are optimistic that a new generation of Americans can be persuaded to embrace the technology. Only time will tell.

[1] The OTL figure is 17%. In OTL, about 20% of U.S. energy production comes from nuclear. The 7% difference is the result of having more fossil fuel plants. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq....y sources,about 17% of electricity generation.
[2] The northern edge of the evacuation zone, cf. 8 Mile.
[3] This is only slightly less than its OTL population.
 
However, experts warn that the U.S. faces an energy crisis. While nearly 30% of America's energy is generated from renewable sources, [1] there is an ever-growing demand for energy. Energy prices continue to rise and some fear the prospect of rolling blackouts
Renewable energy would, IMO, be a LOT higher.

There's going to have been a lot more money plowed into research and development a lot earlier, and surely wind and solar would have dropped below today's prices (in real terms). Moreover, with subsidization, the installed base will be pretty big even before price parity. Also, James Bay expansions will have been bigger, and happened sooner. Possibly Churchill Falls, too.

Canada, especially Québec, is going to have made an absolute fortune exporting power.

Today, coal plants around the world are closing down because they aren't economic any more. While iTTL that won't be the case yet in the US in 2016, I would imagine it have to be near the tipping point, and WOULD be by 2020, say.

The other thing you'd see is massively improved grid interconnects, so wind power from the plains and solar from massive plants in the desert SW power much of the country.

Honestly, I can't imagine any serious attempt to develop new fission machines in the US at this point. Sure, people will talk about it, but there's no way they can make it economic with the plunging electricity prices (which are about to happen).
France? Sure. India? Definitely. Might Canada have done a Thorium modified Candu (maybe in Alberta*, mostly for export). Maybe. The US? I don't see it.
-----
* Why Alberta?
1) they've got the money.
2) they can use nuclear heat in the Tar Sands projects.
3) they didn't get hit by the fallout from Fermi like Ontario did. Adding new Candu plants to the existing complexes in Ontario would be a tough sell.
4) Alberta loves money, loves energy, and isn't very conservation minded.
 
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