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Without ASB, how can we by 1938 get Japan to stand down in China, withdraw to its 1922 borders below?
Options in my mind are outright military alliance with China with western forces sent in. This is unlikely. More likely is something diplomatic, where Japan is clearly seen as the winner, and has a face saving way to withdraw from China, likely with concessions from China. This would be in combination with some sort of agreement with the west .