How to make Bulgaria side with the Allies?

[BlondieBC]

They have to be promised something. Serbia, Romania, and the Ottomans have something they want. As do the Greeks to a lesser extent. As one other poster mention, promising them Constantinople would be enough, but it would mean a huge Russian/UK split. I don't really see how to do this without splitting the Entente and risking a separate peace by Russia. And even if it does work, look for a Germany/Russian alliance in WW2. It is really a suicide option for the UK. Then we get into the option of giving them southern Serbia which is also unworkable. I doubt southern Romania is enough to get Bulgaria to join. Now neutrality is more possible, maybe.

Now if you want an earlier POD, it is doable, but you move someone strongly into the CP camp, probably Serbia and maybe Greece or Romania. So we can have a WW1, but you have to have a different WW1.

 

[MadMc]

Conrad doesn't fuck up, wins a defensive battle in Galicia against the early Russian offensive. No early push against Serbia. After the Germans stall in the west, a joint German-AH attack is organised against Serbia after the initial, A-H efforts only, fail.

Since things are looking way better for the A-H, they don't promise anything to the Bulgarians. No promises = no entry. The allies also decide not to intervene in Greece.

Bulgaria continues to trade with the CP and in late 1918 opportunistically declares war, joining the Allies.

I agree with this POD the most. While Bulgaria is not really on the Allies side for most of the war, it seems quite plausible.

 

[Kome]

They have to be promised something. Serbia, Romania, and the Ottomans have something they want. As do the Greeks to a lesser extent. As one other poster mention, promising them Constantinople would be enough, but it would mean a huge Russian/UK split. I don't really see how to do this without splitting the Entente and risking a separate peace by Russia. And even if it does work, look for a Germany/Russian alliance in WW2. It is really a suicide option for the UK.

It might not even get Bulgaria to join the Entente!

Bulgaria doesnt have a good history with foreign 'promises'. They'll have to capture the city first and give it to Bulgaria outright, since it really is too good to be true.

 

[Styrofoam Boots]

It might not even get Bulgaria to join the Entente!

Bulgaria doesnt have a good history with foreign 'promises'. They'll have to capture the city first and give it to Bulgaria outright, since it really is too good to be true.

That's why I mentioned promising Constantinople; they probably wouldn't hold out on the promise. So if Bulgaria was to believe them, Bulgaria would join. There just needs to be a reason why they would trust the entente.

Or they can just be promised Ottoman Europe without Constantinople, that way it isn't too good to be true and the entente may keep the promise without splitting.

 

[Kome]

That's why I mentioned promising Constantinople; they probably wouldn't hold out on the promise. So if Bulgaria was to believe them, Bulgaria would join. There just needs to be a reason why they would trust the entente.

They wont believe them. They didnt believe them when it came to Serbian and Greek Macedonia ether. Promises are suspect and worth shit. They need concrete proof that they are going to get the city and that none of their allies are going to contest that.

And of course none of the Entente is willing to give that, so that makes Constantinople a nonstarter.

What does become interesting is what happens post war if Russia still falls out of the war but Bulgaria is on the winning side. OTL few people had interest in preventing Turkey from retaking the International Zone. For Bulgaria its right next to them though and can contest it if they wish. Turkish War of Independence might just get a lot more messy.

Course its also possible Bulgaria will be preoccupied with occupying their other territorial gains to let Istanbul go without a fight.

 

[Sharkani Rend]

I know that it was NEVER a goal for Bulgaria to even take, not to speak to hold Constantinople.

 

[Falecius]

Well, dear Count Nitzskiy, Prussia never fought against ALL its neighbours simultaneously. Otherwise it would follow the Bulgarian destiny to loose 1/2 of its natural territory, if not worse...

The war of the Seven Years came pretty close.

 

[Falecius]

At some point, IIRC, the Entente considered bribing Bulgaria on their side offering Serbian Macedonia. Serbia was to be compensated with basically most of what is today BiH, Croatia and Slovenia.
This, however, had the inherent defect of disregarding Italian claims in the Adriatic, and pissing off Italy was a big no-no for the Entente. Serbia also would not be happy, but they would have very little say by this point.
Basically, Entente Bulgaria might mean CP or Neutral Italy. And this would help CP considerably.

 

[Elfwine]

At some point, IIRC, the Entente considered bribing Bulgaria on their side offering Serbian Macedonia. Serbia was to be compensated with basically most of what is today BiH, Croatia and Slovenia.
This, however, had the inherent defect of disregarding Italian claims in the Adriatic, and pissing off Italy was a big no-no for the Entente. Serbia also would not be happy, but they would have very little say by this point.
Basically, Entente Bulgaria might mean CP or Neutral Italy. And this would help CP considerably.

How would it help? Italy is pitifully weak (speaking of economic/industrial muscle mostly).

 

[Falecius]

How would it help? Italy is pitifully weak (speaking of economic/industrial muscle mostly).

The Italian front tied a significant amount of CP troops and resources that could be used elsewhere.
Italy was weak relative to Germany, France or even Austria, but her army held a front fairly stably for two years. Of course, Austria had other business (Galicia and the Balkans) while Italy mostly didn't.
But even then, Austria needed heavy German support just to be able to keep fighting after some point, to a degree not experienced by Italy (which received a fair amount of Allied support too). Not having to fight Italy would improve Austrian situation noticeably.
Though Bulgaria could be a pain in the ass for CP in her own right, I don't think she could put the same manpower and industrial capacity, limited as it was, that Italy had.

 

[TradeMachine]

Here is an interesting POD in 1886 Prince Alexander 1 Battenberg (Bulgarian prince) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_of_Battenberg had to abdicate. In 9 august there was an successful coup against him and the counter coup failed because he didn't get the support of neighter Russia or Germany. But lets say GB decides to back the young prince wanting to increase its influence in the region. There for Battenberg appoints Stefan Stambolov as prime minister. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Stambolov

There isn't a big change (Stambolov ise PM IOTL) except that Battenberg doesn't accept any of his resignations. So Stambolov remains as prime minister even after 1894. His strong anti Russian views and pro western European even further separate Bulgaria From the Tzar in St Petersburg.

After the The First Balkan War which ended after Bulgaria Agreed reluctantly to give Macedonia to Serbia in exchange for more territories in the East. But a for a big surprise to Greece and Serbia Bulgaria Singes a 5 year pact Mutual Defense Pack with GB fearing a second war. GB again wanted to increase its infuense in the Balkans and started seeing Bulgaria as a partner in the region.

Surprise Surprise WW1 AH declares war on Serbia. Russia ->AH. Germany -> Russia. France -> Germany. Germany -> Belgium. GB-> Germany.
And Bulgaria wanting to improve its relationship with Serbia Joins the war on the side of the GB. And sends 100k man on the Serbian front to help against the AH. Seeing a chance to return some of its formal land OE joins the Central powers. Bulgaria has no other option except to mobilize its army for a second time in 2 years and sends 400k To battle the OE. Greece feeling betrayed by GB and seeing the starting success of the CP in 1915 joins the war on the side of Germany together with Romania. But before they can mobilize their Troops Bulgaria with the help of GB Captures the west side of Constantinople (Istanbul). This freed enough manpower for Bulgaria that it was able to counter the Romanian and Greece armies but at the cost of the return its army from Serbia.

In 1916 AH Germany and Italy managed to Brake throw the Serbian Defense and in the end of the year Serbia Capitulated. In 1917 The CP focused their attention in the east and managed to kick Russia out of the war. But the new troops that the USA send every month finaly shifted the favor of war on the Side of the Allice. The war ended in January 1919.
AH was split into tree states Austria, Hungery and Czechoslovakia. The new state of Yugoslavia was formed (Greater Serbia). Bulgaria gained all lands south of Danube(From Romania) Some lands including ( Thessaloniki Solun) [From Greece] Macedonia from Yugoslavia Gifted For the help that was shown in the early years of the war. And Constantinople + the lands around it from Turkey.

Bonus Romania doesn't get Transylvania, Yugoslavia annexes Albania prety little other changes in the war (no Galippoli)

What do you think.

 

[TradeMachine]

This is the map in 1919.

And before you say no one will give Bulgaria all those lands Russia is in a sivil war Germany lost a war France and BG were to scared of losing the war in 1917 if Bulgaria changes sides. So they needed to keep the eastern front alive.

 

[Elfwine]

The Italian front tied a significant amount of CP troops and resources that could be used elsewhere.
Italy was weak relative to Germany, France or even Austria, but her army held a front fairly stably for two years. Of course, Austria had other business (Galicia and the Balkans) while Italy mostly didn't.

But even then, Austria needed heavy German support just to be able to keep fighting after some point, to a degree not experienced by Italy (which received a fair amount of Allied support too). Not having to fight Italy would improve Austrian situation noticeably.
Though Bulgaria could be a pain in the ass for CP in her own right, I don't think she could put the same manpower and industrial capacity, limited as it was, that Italy had.

Significant defined as? Austria-Hungary mobilized nine million men OTL, so if it has to devote half a million to dealing with Italy, I would not consider that 'significant" enough to matter.

And that issue of Austria having other business - judging by what happened at Caporetto, that had more to do with it than the effectiveness of the Italian army. Not to say the Italian army was worthless, just that it was distinctly second class.

Austria needed German support because of Russia, not Italy.

Agreed on the comparison to Bulgaria, though.