How to make both Latvia and Estonia much more populous?

CaliGuy

Banned
In the 1959 census, there were c. 900 000 ethnic Estonians in the Estonian SSR (75%) and 270 000 Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians (20%). In the 1989 census, there were 960 000 ethnic Estonians (62%) and 550 000 Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians (35%). In other words, the non-Estonian population had doubled in three decades.

Had the USSR survived past the 1990s, and had the OTL population trends of 1960-1990 continued, it would have been quite possible by the late 2020s that the ethnically non-Estonian population would have made up a slight majority of the people of the Estonian SSR.
I just looked at Latvia's demographic data and the same would have also been true of Latvia.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Germany wins WW1, set up a Baltic Duchy and encourage German migration there to make the Duchy more German.
Two questions:

1. How many Germans would actually be willing to immigrate there?
2. Would Germany allow ethnic Latvians and Estonians to immigrate to Germany en masse in this TL? If so, couldn't many of them actually do this (thus resulting in less people in Latvia and Estonia)?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'm not sure that you could necessarily get much German immigration to Estonia and Latvia. Even in circumstances where the region was under uncontested German control, Estonia and Latvia would still be relatively poor territories on the fringes of the German sphere. I would be surprised if you managed to get as many German immigrants to these countries as we got Soviet-era Russophone immigrants in OTL--in the Soviet Union, the Baltic States were actually rich areas desperately short on labour.
Yeah, given the fact that the eastern areas of the German Empire had a population which grew less quickly than the population of the western areas of the German Empire, there would very likely need to be large incentives for ethnic Germans to move to Latvia and Estonia in this TL. Of course, I suppose that you could have some--if not many--ethnic Germans from Russia move to Latvia and Estonia if the post-WWI Russian government will pursue discrimination and whatnot against ethnic Germans as a result of its anger towards its massive territorial losses to Germany in World War I.

However, there's also an interesting question--if Germany outright annexes Latvia and Estonia, couldn't many ethnic Latvians and Estonians move to (the much wealthier) Germany? After all, many Poles moved from Posen Province to the wealthier and more industrialized Ruhr in the late 19th and early 20th centuries!
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The 1918 German occupation in Latvia and Estonia was not seen as liberators at all. Even the Bolsheviks were more popular at the time (which isn't even much of a surprise).

Of course, the German Empire may still have the strength to stay there in spite of its unpopularity, and flood the region with German and (maybe) White Russian colonists.
Why would the Germans allow the Bolsheviks to remain in power in Russia if/after Germany wins World War I, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It also seemed to respond to economic issues, including labour shortages, in the Baltic States. At very most you might have a situation like Tatarstan's, say, where the titular nation remained the near-majority throughout the Soviet era.
Did Lithuania have much less labor shortages during this time? After all, Lithuania never had as many Russians (percentage-wise) as either Latvia or Estonia had.
 
Why would the Germans allow the Bolsheviks to remain in power in Russia if/after Germany wins World War I, though?

It's possible they would overthrow the Bolsheviks. Not certain, but quite possible. But what does that change for Latvia and Estonia?
 
There's no White Russian immigrants there.

They were going to be a minority anyway, compared to the large-scale German colonization. IIRC the Baltic barons had already promised to use a full third of their land for German settlement.
 
Did Lithuania have much less labor shortages during this time? After all, Lithuania never had as many Russians (percentage-wise) as either Latvia or Estonia had.
No, Lithuania's Soviet puppet government was just smarter than that of Latvia and Estonia.

Sniečkus was a horrible person, but he was well aware of how the Soviet nomenklatura works and how to manipulate it for the benefit of himself and his republic. They managed to avoid the Soviet post-war veteran settlers with a hostile atmosphere, and jumped on Lavrentiy Beria's call to fill up the periphery nomenklatura with local communists, and the industrialization in Lithuania went in a much more dispersed manner to avoid big Soviet immigrant congregations.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
No, Lithuania's Soviet puppet government was just smarter than that of Latvia and Estonia.

Sniečkus was a horrible person, but he was well aware of how the Soviet nomenklatura works and how to manipulate it for the benefit of himself and his republic. They managed to avoid the Soviet post-war veteran settlers with a hostile atmosphere, and jumped on Lavrentiy Beria's call to fill up the periphery nomenklatura with local communists, and the industrialization in Lithuania went in a much more dispersed manner to avoid big Soviet immigrant congregations.
OK; also, though, can you please elaborate on the "hostile atmosphere" part? Indeed, how exactly did the Lithuanian Communists do that?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
They were going to be a minority anyway, compared to the large-scale German colonization. IIRC the Baltic barons had already promised to use a full third of their land for German settlement.
Yes, that is correct! Of course, how many ethnic Germans would have actually been willing to settle in Latvia and Estonia in this TL?
 
Did Lithuania have much less labor shortages during this time? After all, Lithuania never had as many Russians (percentage-wise) as either Latvia or Estonia had.

If you look at the demographics of the three countries, the noteworthy thing is that Lithuania would have been the only country to regain its prewar population level by virtue of natural growth, going on to exceed it by 50% by the end of the Soviet era. Absent the Soviet-era immigration to fill gaps, it's possible that Estonia and Latvia would not have recovered their pre-war populations owing to their lower birth rates.
 
OK; also, though, can you please elaborate on the "hostile atmosphere" part? Indeed, how exactly did the Lithuanian Communists do that?
Well, it wasn't them, that was mostly because of the Lithuanian partisans. As well as anti-Russian thoughts of the general population.

Also a lot of luck. The LKP "helped", though, by prioritizing Lithuanian, not Russian colonization of the depopulated Vilnius and Klaipėda regions.
 
Yeah, given the fact that the eastern areas of the German Empire had a population which grew less quickly than the population of the western areas of the German Empire, there would very likely need to be large incentives for ethnic Germans to move to Latvia and Estonia in this TL. Of course, I suppose that you could have some--if not many--ethnic Germans from Russia move to Latvia and Estonia if the post-WWI Russian government will pursue discrimination and whatnot against ethnic Germans as a result of its anger towards its massive territorial losses to Germany in World War I.

Sure. Even so, why would they stay in the Baltics?

However, there's also an interesting question--if Germany outright annexes Latvia and Estonia, couldn't many ethnic Latvians and Estonians move to (the much wealthier) Germany? After all, many Poles moved from Posen Province to the wealthier and more industrialized Ruhr in the late 19th and early 20th centuries!

I think it entirely possible this could happen, assuming that there are no barriers for migrants coming to or from Estonia-Latvia. Much depends on the details of the settlement.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If you look at the demographics of the three countries, the noteworthy thing is that Lithuania would have been the only country to regain its prewar population level by virtue of natural growth, going on to exceed it by 50% by the end of the Soviet era. Absent the Soviet-era immigration to fill gaps, it's possible that Estonia and Latvia would not have recovered their pre-war populations owing to their lower birth rates.
Yeah, that's what I previously suspected. Also, though, wasn't Lithuania more rural than both Latvia and Estonia were in 1950?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Well, it wasn't them, that was mostly because of the Lithuanian partisans. As well as anti-Russian thoughts of the general population.

Weren't both Latvians and Estonians also hostile to Russians and also sometimes engaged in partisan warfare, though?

Also a lot of luck. The LKP "helped", though, by prioritizing Lithuanian, not Russian colonization of the depopulated Vilnius and Klaipėda regions.

Those two territories are a relatively small part of Lithuania overall, no?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Sure. Even so, why would they stay in the Baltics?

Yeah--indeed, even if they stay in the Baltics for one or two generations, they or their children or grandchildren might move to the more industrialized western parts of Germany later on. Of course, it is possible that the cities in the Baltic states will permanently become German (after all, even cities such as Konigsberg in eastern Germany continued to have their population significantly increase after the industrial revolution).

I think it entirely possible this could happen, assuming that there are no barriers for migrants coming to or from Estonia-Latvia. Much depends on the details of the settlement.

Frankly, what I was thinking of was German Kaiser Wilhelm II getting some sense and successfully pushing through German citizenship for the entire population of Latvia and Estonia (well, at least for those Latvians and Estonians who aren't Bolsheviks). Since both Latvians and Estonians are mostly Protestant, their addition to the German Empire wouldn't pose a demographic problem in the same way that, say, the annexation of a mostly Catholic area would.
 
Weren't both Latvians and Estonians also hostile to Russians and also sometimes engaged in partisan warfare, though?



Those two territories are a relatively small part of Lithuania overall, no?
Yes, but the partisan movement in Lithuania was the largest and most developed one of the three by a wide margin.

And no. Vilnius is the heart of the nation that holds Lithuania's largest city and capital and a large share of it's industry, while Klaipėda (more commonly known in these waters as Memel) is Lithuania's only port, and thus extremely strategically important to the nation.

They both could've become Russified after WW2 (what a nightmare), but the LKP was aware that having two Russian enclaves would only hurt the nation in the long term.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Yes, but the partisan movement in Lithuania was the largest and most developed one of the three by a wide margin.

What is the reason for this? The larger amount of forests in Lithuania? Something else?

And no. Vilnius is the heart of the nation that holds Lithuania's largest city and capital and a large share of it's industry, while Klaipėda (more commonly known in these waters as Memel) is Lithuania's only port, and thus extremely strategically important to the nation.

They both could've become Russified after WW2 (what a nightmare), but the LKP was aware that having two Russian enclaves would only hurt the nation in the long term.

OK; understood.

Also, though, in a TL where both Vilnius and Klaipeda become Russified, could be have seen a Lithuanian Transnistria after the end of the Cold War?
 
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