How to get the USSR to beat the Germans in 1943

Okay in response to the challenge of the Germans beating Russia in 1942,I present the challenge to have the Soviet Union defeating the Nazis no later than the 31st of December 1943 with a POD anytime after Barbarossa.

Bonus points if they reach Berlin

Mega points if the Soviets reach the channel
 
What, besides the obvious "don't purge everyone" and "listen to intelligence reports?"

How about allow retreats to prevent early encirclements? Or have the government not be paralyzed for the first few days of the war?
 
What, besides the obvious "don't purge everyone" and "listen to intelligence reports?"

How about allow retreats to prevent early encirclements? Or have the government not be paralyzed for the first few days of the war?

Early retreats would certainly help but I was thinking more of a successfull Operation Typhoon which leads to Stalingrad one year earlier.
 
Well, you get some leeway simply by avoiding some of Stalin's mistakes, such as placement of too much Soviet military hardware too close to the border. And RGB's point about the purges is 150% correct.

And of course, I can't help but notice that you don't put terribly many limitations on the scenario: Soviet victory, in 1943.

So the point of departure is Lenin's last stroke-impaired denunciation of Stalin, that Stalin is unable to keep from being made public. Thus strengthened, Trotsky is barely able to finish off the all-time best bureaucratic political infighter ever, only to himself fall afterwards because he's better at propaganda than governance.

Someone sane takes over. Maybe the New Economic Policy lasts, maybe it doesn't. Maybe there are purges just like under Stalin, maybe there are not. But for these purposes it would only be necessary for someone to take power with the foresight not to engage in the short-sighted Molotov-Von Ribbentropp pact.

In September 1939 Germany invades Poland. France, England and the USSR declare war simultaneously. As a result, Germany never finds itself fighting a one-front war like it was able to do in the early days of World War II, fighting exclusively in Poland or exclusively in France. Instead it has to fight on two fronts in the early days (or is perhaps even taxed enough on the Eastern Front the invasion of France is delayed or doesn't come off as planned) and finds itself taxed by the duration of the war, as the Soviet Union's superior natural resources and strategic depth become more significant as the war drags on (just as it did in the real world WWII).

Essentially, even with the fall of France it is more like a replay of WWI. And just like WWI it lasts--about four years.

And about France--let's say it does fall. Because the Allies are not as afraid of the German war machine (because the Germans have occupied less territory and thus have less resources under their control) and because they are less eager to have the two goliaths go at it, they invade occupied France a year early.

So. 1943.

The main problem I see with this is that Stalin's strategy in 1939 was all about delaying Germany until the USSR could arm itself (of course his blunders in the early days of the war destroyed much of that advantage). So whoever runs the USSR in the 1930s will have to have a substantial reason to spend heavily on the military. But it's the USSR--why they would feel the need to do that anyway does not really need much intellectual heavy lifting.

So I think we're a go. Could I make a request, please? Pretty, please?

If we're going to have an alternate Soviet ruler, let's be ambitious:

KOLLONTAI!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandra_Kollontai
 
Okay, Maria Spiridonova escapes from prison, shoots Stalin in the face (she was into that sort of thing), and leads the Russians to victory like a modern-day Slavic utopian socialist Joan of Arc. And then she shoots Hitler.

Kablammo!

Socialism with style.

--------

But we're dreadfully OT at this point.
 
Okay in response to the challenge of the Germans beating Russia in 1942,I present the challenge to have the Soviet Union defeating the Nazis no later than the 31st of December 1943 with a POD anytime after Barbarossa.

Bonus points if they reach Berlin

Mega points if the Soviets reach the channel

Virtually impossible with those conditions. Only [non-ASB] way I could see would be if the Germans did slightly better in the initial invasion and get a firmer grip in western Moscow. Buoyed up by this Hitler insists on continuing Typhoon and the Germans become bogged down in urban fighting in worsening weather then Army Group Centre is virtually destroyed by the Soviet winter offensive. Coupled with panic and disorder as the fragments seek to retreat.

Due to exhaustion the Red Army only gets say to about Smolensk but German moral and prestige is greatly reduced. By desperate means they manage to cobble together forces to fill in the huge gap in their line and seek to mobilise more forces as rapidly as possible. 42 sees bitter fighting as a still learning Red Army gradually bleeds the Germans white helped by Hitler's no retreat orders. By the end of 42 they have made relatively little territorial gains but gravely weakened the Germans and also it means that a lot of formal German satellites are increasingly distancing themselves from Berlin.

43 sees a continuation of this with a belated mass mobilisation by the Germans coming too late as rapidly recruited and poorly trained and equipped troops go down before an increasingly well equipped and organised Red Army. Coupled with Anglo-American landings in Italy and Greece, leading to the hurried switching of sides by much of the Balkan states the Germans collapse and after a successful assassination of Hitler sees Germany collapse into civil war.

Still verging on ASB but probably the best I can come up with. Can't get the Red Army reaching the Channel as by that time Britain and American will be relatively much more powerful than in 40-41. [If their not in the war then Russia is really in deep trouble].

Steve
 
Virtually impossible with those conditions. Only [non-ASB] way I could see would be if the Germans did slightly better in the initial invasion and get a firmer grip in western Moscow. Buoyed up by this Hitler insists on continuing Typhoon and the Germans become bogged down in urban fighting in worsening weather then Army Group Centre is virtually destroyed by the Soviet winter offensive. Coupled with panic and disorder as the fragments seek to retreat.

Due to exhaustion the Red Army only gets say to about Smolensk but German moral and prestige is greatly reduced. By desperate means they manage to cobble together forces to fill in the huge gap in their line and seek to mobilise more forces as rapidly as possible. 42 sees bitter fighting as a still learning Red Army gradually bleeds the Germans white helped by Hitler's no retreat orders. By the end of 42 they have made relatively little territorial gains but gravely weakened the Germans and also it means that a lot of formal German satellites are increasingly distancing themselves from Berlin.

43 sees a continuation of this with a belated mass mobilisation by the Germans coming too late as rapidly recruited and poorly trained and equipped troops go down before an increasingly well equipped and organised Red Army. Coupled with Anglo-American landings in Italy and Greece, leading to the hurried switching of sides by much of the Balkan states the Germans collapse and after a successful assassination of Hitler sees Germany collapse into civil war.

Still verging on ASB but probably the best I can come up with. Can't get the Red Army reaching the Channel as by that time Britain and American will be relatively much more powerful than in 40-41. [If their not in the war then Russia is really in deep trouble].

Steve


Congratulations!You win a cup of tea and a hat of your choice.

If youd managed to get the Soviets to the channel there would also be biscuits.

Anyone else fancy a try?
 

Markus

Banned
Easy, instead of to standing fast and launching half assed counteroffensives the Red Army is permitted to conduct strategic delaying action. Each time they are about to be outflanked they withdraw. At Kiev alone that would have saved up to 500,000 men and their equipment. Do that a few times an you loose a fraction of the 3 million lost in 1941.
When the Red Army finally makes a stand and launches a counteroffensive they will do it under much improved conditions. Even in OTL 9th Army and Panzergruppe 4 were close to becoming goners in December 1941.
 
Outrageous timeline.

Barbarossa plans are changed, Hitler agrees that the offensive toward Moscow shall continue but operation to seize Leningrad is canceled, caucasian oilfields are judged to be more important. It is decided only a token operation is launched against Leningrad.

Wehrmacht enter Moscow without much of a fight but inside the city itself, faces extensive urban warfare.
Noticing major reinforcements enters the city, it is decided that Moscow shall be encircled, it is done but prooves to be difficult and time-costly.
Once the city is surrounded, invasion of it is resumed.
German encirclement of the city is weak hovewer, does not expect an offensive by temperatures approching -25.
Red Army offensive cuts-off the invaders in the second phase of the Moscow battle, even as the Germans where near victory despite heavly losses. Despite Hitler´s protests, the axis forces retreats from around Moscow to the parts of the city they hold.
The axis forces also entered the caucase, first moves toward the Volga and once Stalingrad and Astrakhan are secured, moves south.
It is believed that the capture of Kiev, which had already been evacuated in the 2 months before, in December 41 will be enough to prevent that force from being cut-off.
Red Army offensive is still able to cut-off much of army group south in 41-42 winter, axis counter-offensive is stopped short of Rostov.
No breakthrough is attempted, as Wehrmacht forces would have to abandonne much of their equippement and the army group south relief offensive have mostly failed.
Only in February 42 is an offensive to relieve the Moscow pocket engaged, it is a failure. By spring 1942, axis forces in Moscow and the caucase have surrendered, Roosevelt and Churchill declares their unconditional surrender policies.
Both Minsk and Kiev seems threatened with the defeats of army group center and south, attack is expected there.
Stalin´s target prooves to be Army Group North, a massive offensive in summer 42 is able to breakthough into the Baltics, encircles a large amount of forces south of Leningrad.
The Wehrmacht launch a hastily prepared counter-offensive to defeat the Red Army but still recovering from the Moscovite and caucasian disasters, is defeated.
After this battle, Soviet advantage have grown even further, while axis forces are reduced to being on the defensive.
Before the end of the year, battles of Minsk and Kiev occures. This time, the Wehrmacht retreats but doing so in winter times prooves difficult and they abandonne much equippement, faces major disorganisation.
By December 42, Soviet probing forces even reaches Romania and the first major Red Airforce raid is launched, against the Ploesti oilfields.
In early 1943, Hitler faces an assassination attempt, it fails and the conspirators are discovered, put to trial and shot. Hitler´s distruste of the military increases somewhat.
Spring 1943, axis production begin to reach a very high level but the axis armies are still disorganised by the massive numbers of new draftees and the loss of much of its best elements in spring-autumn 42.
Stalin takes a calculated risk to launch a renewed offensive against the axis, comitte as much forces as possible in defeating the remants of army group south and enter Romania.
The Romanian gov, already embittered and afraid by the previous year´s defeats, decides to turn on the Germans. The Bulgarians where ready to follow such a move, Sofia declares war to Berlin after some negociations.
Situation in Yugoslavia and Greece worsen considerably, with the occupation forces being considerably oustretched. Loss of Ploesti oilfields is a crippling blow to the axis, while equippement can be replaced it now suffer a catastrophic shortage of fuel.
In the course of summer 43, axis retreates to Germany, Poland and Hungarya, focus also on defending Italy.
Meanwhile the Red Army secures Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Albania and Greece.
Invasion of Normandie begin, with lack of troops it is initally sucessfull but Hitler understand it is an invasion and send all forces available to defeat the anglo-yankees. Within 10 days, the landing forces are in deep troubles.
Roosevelt decides to cover US retreat with chemical weapons, Churchill decide to extend chemical warfare to Germany, since the Germans are hard pressed to defend their cities with their fuel shortage. Hitler is angered by the massive chemical attacks and order retaliation on cities in southern england.
While both sides exaust their reserves of posion gas, the 3rd Reich sign an armistice with the Soviet-Union, handing over the General Governement of Poland, Slovakia, Narvik and northern Yugoslavia.
Red Army prepares its own chemical warfare and offensive in these countries.
Stalin decides to open a further way into the Mediterranean with the invasion of Turkey and send reserves to Vladivostock, promising a coming intervention against Japan to the US and UK.
In latter 43, the allies decides to invade through Spain , expending vaste quantities of chemical weaponery on both military and strategical (civilian) targets.
Since the chemical escalation, Franco had begun preparations for allied chemical attacks and axis reinforcemenst are able to move quickly.
This time, the allies secures a foothold but advancing further prooves difficult.
In spring 44, the Red Army attacks Mandchuko and Korea, this time uses large quantities of chemical weaponery.
By summer 1944, armistice is signed with Japan, Japan would eventually surrender to be divided in 3 occupation zones. Mao is in Peking.
In spring 1945, the Red Army launch its great offensive west, by summer Hungarya, Northern Italy had been seized. Inside Germany itself, quick progress to Vienna, Prague, Hamburg and Berlin.
Occupation of France collapses in summer in the face of revolts, allies intervenes immediately, axis forces retreats from Spain.
Reduced to the Rhineland, southern Norway and a zone around Munich, the axis forces surrenders on September 2nd.
Churchill and Truman wheren´t too happy about the situation, they demanded Red Army retreat from Holland, Danemark, northern Norway and partial retreat from northern Italy but Stalin insisted on the occupation of Germany all the way to the Rhineland.
Mao Zedong had launched an offensive against the Chinese nationalists.

Then, Stalin´s intelligence received news of one Operation Unthinkable, set to start in early spring 1946, which made him consider his own plans. Churchill on the other hand had come up with a good addition to this plan, one Stalin did absolutely not suspect.
In early 1946, it was discovered that a highly secrete cargo was brought to Oslo, which in turn to a major US airbase in the outskirts of that city where a large bomber force had been gathered.
One morning in early spring 1946, paratroopers would land on that airfield, southern Norway itself would come under surprise attack much as what had happened 6 years earlier.
A major offensive began on the western front, taking Truman and Roosevelt by surprise.
Within weeks, the battle was won, millions had been made prisonniers. The Red Army then advanced into Holland, Belgium, France.
From northern Japan, major attack was launched southward, rapidly reaching Tokyo harbour.
The US gov makes then public the possession of a new type of bomb. In the next 2 months, 2 where detonated on Berlin, Munich and in the battle of Bordeaux.
Then, retaliation followed, 9 atomic bombs had been sent to Oslo, from which they would be used against Moscow, eliminating Stalin, disorganising the Soviet-Union and the Red Army enough to give Operation Unthinkable a fair chance of success.
3 had been sent for studies, which left 6.
3 where brought to the US by transport submarine. There, agents in US uniforms and US military trucks would deliver them to as near the White House as possible and New York.
The 3 others where used in an all-out attack against London, the US governement swiftly declared that it was US atomic bombs that had been captured and used against the US but it had only a limited impact at that point, when the public expected new attacks.
Then, communist agents struck Los Alamos with a civilian aircraft-delivered bomb.
Eventually, WWIII ended far quicker than WWII, the Soviet-Union had an uncontested presence in europe, north africa and the middle-east. The Red Army retreated from Danemark, southern Italy, Portugal and Holland but these would remain neutral countries.
France and Spain, one with a good number of communists and the other much ressentement over the chemical bombardements of WWII, would become allies of the Soviet-Union.
Chinese communists obtained French Indochina and later occupied Thailand.
The RAF and USAAF bombers and fighter-bombers where excluded from India and Myanamar, where civil striff would rapidly errupt. Major cut-down of offensive military forces in Japan.

Political chaos reigned in the US and the UK after Truman and Churchill resigned.
The Soviet-Union detonated its first atomic bomb in spring 1948, in early 1949 a new governement takes power in Washington, which denounces not only the Soviet-Union but a conspiracy, a stab in the back from traitors at home. The new governement decides to sparre no expense at supporting the UK´s colonial possessions and secure the US from ennemies at home, massive militarisation.
4 years later, MacCarthy becomes president of the US, increasing militarisation even further and support new anti-communist governements taking power all across south and central america.
In 1954, US military forces in the UK moves against the local governement, the UK is fully annexed into the USA, Canada follows in 1955. Australian governement refuses to join the Union and declares UK atomic bombs in its territory Australian ones. Many harcore british nostalgics and pro-commonwealth immigrants arrives in Australia during the next years. Australian Imperialist Party is formed, advocating buying new territories in Indonesia and an union between Australia and New Zealand, automatic citizenship for all WASP who prooves loyalty to Canberra and the Queen.
1956, first satellites lauched, president Walt Disney ;) is elected on a platform of change and promise he will be less soft than president McCarthy.
1957, the States of England, Wales, Scotland and Irland officially joins the Union of North America. President Walt Disney begin full cooperation with Australia even if the Australians refuses annexion.
Beginning of the first waves of survivalist, christian fundamentalist immigration to the Union of South Africa, anyone in north america who is deemed lacking patriotism without facing prison is more or less forced to immigrate to the South African Union or face complete social exclusion.
1958, the US governement declares that all south and central american countries are to accept US military presence and if necessary, new governements appointed by Washington. All who refuses these conditions will found themselves in a state of war with the Union of North America.
When the news of a soviet probe landing on the moon comes out, President Walt Disney declares that the US shall have a fully working base on the moon within 10 years.
1959, Nuclear Power Act passes through Congress, construction rate of 20 nuclear stations a year in 1960 to 35 in 1970. Also, Disney began the construction of underground military cities that should be able to survive, even isolated, for decades should thermonuclear and/or biological war make the north american continent uninhabitable.
It was believed that the socialist bloc was already working or had completed such cities in mountainous regions of China, the Middle-East, Siberia and the Balkans, which would allow the communists to "take over" after WWIV.


Thus begin the crazy 60s. :D
 
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