How to get the Japanese to win in the Pacific

Hi guys,

Just watched something today that got me wondering. How do you get the Japanese to win a Pacific War.

Let's assume that the PoD is 1930 or later, and the war starts as OTL for the Japanes on December 7th 1941 in an attack on Pearl Harbour.

Given these, how do got get them to 'win' in the Pacific? (I assume it is knocking the USA out of the war somehow, but how?).

EDIT: It has to be plausable in the context of OTL thinking, and a detailed explination would be nice (Sorry A most Soverign Lady - I don't see how a Japanese win at Midway would do it as in the long run the USA would still outbuild Japan and therefore win a war of attrittion.)
 
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HJ Tulp

Donor
One would need to change a lot of things. If the US has the will to win they are going to win, no doubt about it.
 
You need to stalemate the USA..
Stop bitting of more than they can chew.

In other words finish China off first, at least what than can feasibley control and maintain.

Don't engage the USA unless they have too.

Go south, avoid the Phillipines.

Kick out the French and British first.

If you are going to do the USA . Be damn ready.
Get the carriers at pearl, take midway, Phillipines, the operations would have to be massive.

Thing is you can't attack the entire Pacific at one time.
 
Have the torpedo Ordnance Bureau be in charge of developing aerial bombs for use buy naval buy naval aircraft, because they look like torpedos.
If the US Navy dive bombers are stuck with bombs that don't explode, Japan will decisively win every carrier engagement until 1943 when the Americans figure out what is going on.
By then an armistice would have been signed. Several Admirals would wind up dying in prison.
 
The Japanese cannot win in the Pacific without the Germans winning in Europe, unless they keep the Americans out of the war. No oil embargo?
 
Hi guys,

Just watched something today that got me wondering. How do you get the Japanese to win a Pacific War.

Let's assume that the PoD is 1930 or later, and the war starts as OTL for the Japanes on December 7th 1941 in an attack on Pearl Harbour.

Given these, how do got get them to 'win' in the Pacific? (I assume it is knocking the USA out of the war somehow, but how?).

EDIT: It has to be plausable in the context of OTL thinking, and a detailed explination would be nice (Sorry A most Soverign Lady - I don't see how a Japanese win at Midway would do it as in the long run the USA would still outbuild Japan and therefore win a war of attrittion.)

a POD after 1930 and with Japan doing Pearl Harbor, only the gods can help Japan.
 
Win at Midway, it's not as impossible as people like to believe. Or if you desire earlier victory, win at the Canal.


A good win at Midway would give the Japanese time but not change the result. The US was fast building carriers and their naval air forces.

The Canal is way beyond the Japanese logistics ability.
 
Yup. Once the Japanese hit Pearl, they were doomed. It was only a matter of time after that.

Which is why the only sensible solution is to have the US make the first move.

Okay, not really, the only sensible solution is to not go to war. But assuming that’s not an option, then bypassing the Phillipines and letting the US declare first with all the political baggage that entails offers the Japanese the only shot they have of getting a negotiated peace.
 
Hi guys,

Just watched something today that got me wondering. How do you get the Japanese to win a Pacific War.

Let's assume that the PoD is 1930 or later, and the war starts as OTL for the Japanes on December 7th 1941 in an attack on Pearl Harbour.

Given these, how do got get them to 'win' in the Pacific? (I assume it is knocking the USA out of the war somehow, but how?).

EDIT: It has to be plausable in the context of OTL thinking, and a detailed explination would be nice (Sorry A most Soverign Lady - I don't see how a Japanese win at Midway would do it as in the long run the USA would still outbuild Japan and therefore win a war of attrittion.)
They can’t win, but for better odds at continued success until at least early 1943, stop focusing on battleships. The steel, money, talent and time the three Yamatos took could have brought forth four more large fleet carriers.

Next, develop system for replacing pilots and aircraft. On the latter, keep up aircraft development and improvements. Flying A6Ms in late 1944 is ridiculous.

Get fuel before the war. POD, Japan discovers the domestic oil fields that IOTL were found post war.
 
Step 1: Cripple the everloving shit out of the US Navy. The Pearl Harbor attack could have gone on a lot longer and turned Oahu into a smoldering crater if the Japanese were up for it and had been better prepared. It would have been a week that lived in infamy, and no matter how pissed off America was, it would have taken a LOT of time to build up a counterattack.

Step 2: Tojo makes sure Hitler slows his roll against the US. Keep the British, French and Russians busy with the Nazis and handle business against the Americans one-on-one.

Step 3: Until the end, America always envisioned the war with Japan (which they expected in full) to be almost exclusively naval. So stymie the Americans in enough battles that the tide doesn’t turn and the Americans can go no further.

Step 4: With America frustrated that they can’t even beat the fucking Japanese straight-up, wait for an isolationist to get elected and for isolationist GOP members to take Congress. End the war, watch America curl back up in its shell, and hope to hell the Nazis handles business against the Russians. If they did, skip to Step 6.

Step 5: Get ready for the Russians. Remember what worked in the dawn of the 20th century and use it. Plunder the mainland of Asia and keep the people out of the way as much as possible.

Step 6: Figure our just how the shit you’re going to run an empire in Asia when just about everyone in your command is totally pissed off at you and would like nothing more than Tojo’s head on a stick and for the Japanese to fuck straight off into shark-infested waters. This, needless to say, is unlikely to end well for Japan.
 
Technically possible but one has too make assumptions that they manage at least the following in my view:

-Germany wins in Europe - outside their control
-All their naval battles are crushing one sided victories - I think unlikely especially as the technological gap starts to widen. Attritional campaigns do not work very well for them
-They manage to run an effective convoy system from day one - not impossible but they had limited numbers of escorts. The US could have ramped the submarine blockade further had it been failing in the surface battles.
-The code system needed to be unbreakable - but most sides in the war had some success with decryption so arguably that is unrealistic.

I think it is a very low probability event, but certainly more possible than a successful Sealion.
 
Technically possible but one has too make assumptions that they manage at least the following in my view:

-Germany wins in Europe - outside their control
-All their naval battles are crushing one sided victories - I think unlikely especially as the technological gap starts to widen. Attritional campaigns do not work very well for them
-They manage to run an effective convoy system from day one - not impossible but they had limited numbers of escorts. The US could have ramped the submarine blockade further had it been failing in the surface battles.
-The code system needed to be unbreakable - but most sides in the war had some success with decryption so arguably that is unrealistic.

I think it is a very low probability event, but certainly more possible than a successful Sealion.

1. True, but Japan could try to steer Hitler into moves that result in, if not outright Nazi wins, enough to keep the Soviets at bay. The Japanese need that more than they need the Nazis to win.

2. They don’t need a 100% success rate at crushing the Americans, but they can’t afford any bad losses. I would analogize it to a mediocre college football team (apologies if you’re not American) - they can afford maybe one loss that isn’t devastating and two if everything - EVERYTHING - breaks right. But other than that, they need a bunch of wins and they need to look good doing it. Because for the Japanese, it’s the equivalent of national championship or bust - anything else and they go home crying.

But yes, attrition will end badly for them.

3. This is absolutely true - when your empire involves a shitload of islands, you need to be king of the seas, and anyone else who can get in their way and cause any disruption - even a medium-sized one - can leave the Japanese in a world of hurt in a matter of months. It’s that or figure out a way to make every colony self-sustaining without supplies from the homeland, and that would be both a logistical nightmare in the short term and a recipe for the end of the Empire long-term.

4. The Americans had languages such as the Navajo at their disposal. That code wasn’t broken at all (probably because Navajo is a bitch to decipher to an outsider.) If the Japanese want unbreakable codes, they need to drudge up some obscure languages and use them, and I’m not sure if those were readily available.
 

nbcman

Donor
The problem is that a US that would consider coming to terms with Japan where it is a Japanese ‘Win’ would most likely not be as confrontational in 1940-1941. Therefore, the US Pacific Fleet would most likely NOT be based in Hawaii in December 1941 as the Battle Fleet didn’t finish moving there until Feb 1941 in response to Japan’s expansionist moves. So the preconditions in the OP probably can’t be met.
 
Step 1: Cripple the everloving shit out of the US Navy. The Pearl Harbor attack could have gone on a lot longer and turned Oahu into a smoldering crater if the Japanese were up for it and had been better prepared. It would have been a week that lived in infamy, and no matter how pissed off America was, it would have taken a LOT of time to build up a counterattack.

Step 2: Tojo makes sure Hitler slows his roll against the US. Keep the British, French and Russians busy with the Nazis and handle business against the Americans one-on-one.

Step 3: Until the end, America always envisioned the war with Japan (which they expected in full) to be almost exclusively naval. So stymie the Americans in enough battles that the tide doesn’t turn and the Americans can go no further.

Step 4: With America frustrated that they can’t even beat the fucking Japanese straight-up, wait for an isolationist to get elected and for isolationist GOP members to take Congress. End the war, watch America curl back up in its shell, and hope to hell the Nazis handles business against the Russians. If they did, skip to Step 6.

Step 5: Get ready for the Russians. Remember what worked in the dawn of the 20th century and use it. Plunder the mainland of Asia and keep the people out of the way as much as possible.

Step 6: Figure our just how the shit you’re going to run an empire in Asia when just about everyone in your command is totally pissed off at you and would like nothing more than Tojo’s head on a stick and for the Japanese to fuck straight off into shark-infested waters. This, needless to say, is unlikely to end well for Japan.
1. Is straight-up impossible. The carriers have limited munitions, the task force as a whole has limited fuel, and Japan doesn't have the industrial capacity to build enough oilers to mitigate the second on top of their naval construction. A third wave is risky, and sticking around a week is a pipe dream.

2. I'm unsure how this actually helps Japan.

3. And if the Americans don't oblige them until they have overwhelming superiority, which is going to happen by early 1944 even in the case of the Americans catastrophically losing Midway? Because the Navy really didn't want to go onto the offensive until late 1943 anyway, and with Pearl knocking out the battleships they have the perfect excuse to wait.

At which point we can disregard the rest.
 
Could you have made their invasion of China more effective by changing their approach to the civilians? What if, instead of atrocities like the "Rape of Nanjing", they were more disciplined and benevolent in their dealings with civilians? Could they thus have taken advantage of the KMT/CCP civil war and established themselves better in China? And would this have given them the manpower and resources to be more effective in the western Pacific?

Poking the eagle in its nest is still a fool's errand, though.
 
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