Now a Second mexican empire has been a hot topic for many years on this forum, and i am really interested in it admittedly. Now, i have done *some* intensive research on the matter in the A levels on north american history, so managed to make a somewhat plausible scenario in which Maximilian I manages to win (though i am sure my fellow mexican forum members can correct, because i am pretty sure there are some mistakes here and there or some implausible events). So this is my rought sketch of how Maximilian can do to win the imperial vs republican war.
In 1864 when he arrived in Mexico, the mexican population was gauged to be pro-imperial in the central portion of the country and the indigenous tracts of the country and pro-republican mainly in the north. Maximilian's foreign appointee Don Jose Ramirez pointed this out otl the moment he was appointed and advised Maximilian I to conduct a 'fast war' in the north to defeat the Republicans. Maximilian I ignored this otl. Let's say he doesn't ittl. Of course a true fast war was impossible, however an early northern campaign would certainly take the republicans by surprise and place them on the backfoot.
Second of all despite his faults, Porfirio Diaz was a good general and would have been an asset to the Imperial cause, and he was the very epitome of being the sly bastard who worked for his safety. Diaz also did have imperial sympathies according to Juarez's letters and his economic policy seemed to match that of what Maximilian I wrote down as well. So a few tweaks here and there (such as the republican defeats at the fast campaign in the north putting him on the backfoot and some rapprochement policies perhaps?) Diaz is lured to the Imperial side becoming a valuable general and military commander in his own right.[1]
Third of all, Bazaine had promised Maximilian to work with him to create a proper Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, however the promise was never kept and Maximilian trying to point the promise out led to fallouts and arguments otl due to Bazaine's pride. Don Jose Ramirez advised [2] the emperor that using native pro-imperial mexican generals and administrators, the empire could make its own army pretty quickly, however Maximilian I did not take this advise for fear of alienating the French. Let's say he takes the offer, and using the local generals and administrators, as well as aid from talented local generals such as Diaz to create the Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, sending Carlotta to assure the French and conducting anti-guerilla campaigns as the French take the lead.
This has a two fold affect. If the Mexican Imperial Forces can take anti-guerilla campaign, then the republican forces will become severely depleted. After that the French unlike otl will not have to leave behind massive garrisons and will be able to defeat the republicans in the north in more detail.
Fourth, OTL, the French raised the notion of making a navy for the Imperial Mexicans to blockade sea lanes to the Republican controlled ports form where supplies from the USA were filtering in. Maximilian deflected this and instead developed a fledgling merchant fleet (which juarez sold after the war otl), let's say that after some heated debates and France using their authority over Maximilian to create a Mexican Navy. Not only does this plug the gaps in the French blockade, it provides a new source of employment and construction potential in Mexico, leading to *some* pro-imperial sentiment.
Fifth. French forces and some pro-Maximilian generals otl raised the idea of making the confederate generals who fled to mexico to take up service in the Imperial Mexican Army to have more experienced generals who knew warfare. This was rejected by the government in Mexico City (not Maximilian, he seemed ambiguous to the idea) however let's say that with some strings, the idea is okayed, and some CSA generals like Jo Shelby, Edmund Kirby, Smith Sterling Price who were settlers in the New Virginia Colony, are given command for money and homelands. OTL it seemed that they were eager to take command but were disappointed by the fact that the mexican government rejected this. Despite the CSA's many many faults, one cannot fault that these generals had war experience, and knew how to fight. Having them fight actively in the war would make the republican lives extremely hard, and free's up generals take the pacific areas in earnest and consolidate imperial gains. Plus actually using the 9,000 or so Confederate veterans lying around would also add valuable manpower for the empire and could be spun off as a story of 'proving their loyalty to the empire'. [3]
Sixth. Maximilian I was very very popular with the natives for his pro-native policy, and this could have been used to his advantage. Using hearts and mind tactics in the natives was successful, and projecting it to the normal peoples of mexico could have been similarly successful as well. Seventh the black decree should not happen. [4]
Using a combination of above, win the war with the republicans, exile Juarez to maybe one of the mexican islands in the pacific and then start a new period in mexican history
Footnotes:
[1] I find the notion that is raised in many threads on the second empire that juarez could be lured to the imperial side unrealistic. It went against his entire ideals. I find luring Diaz to the imperial side a much more easier and better proposal all things considered.
[2] This guy gave a lot of good advise, much of which was not taken by Maximilian I. Making them more amicable, and making Maximilian I taking a good amount of his advise could seriously change the shape of the country during the war.
[3] The New Virginia Plan was actually quite elaborate and would have been quite successful, as many confederates had expressed interest to immigrate however did not due to the volatile nature of the empire. Increased immigration would of course mean increased innovation and capital for the empire.
[4] From the various books i have read on the empire, i can discern, from some numbers from Emperor Maximilian I of Mexico: The Life of the Last European Monarch in Mexico by Charles River Editors, around 1/3 of the country was pro-imperial, 1/3 country was republican and 1/3 was ambivalent. So increasing the portion of pro-imperial will need to be taken seriously and not only just in the native population.
This is just one scenario, i am sure our mexican friends can come up with a wayy more interesting scenario that is wayy more plausible ( and i would love to hear them down below). So anyways, what would be the short term and long term consequences of the Second Mexican Empire coming out on top?
In 1864 when he arrived in Mexico, the mexican population was gauged to be pro-imperial in the central portion of the country and the indigenous tracts of the country and pro-republican mainly in the north. Maximilian's foreign appointee Don Jose Ramirez pointed this out otl the moment he was appointed and advised Maximilian I to conduct a 'fast war' in the north to defeat the Republicans. Maximilian I ignored this otl. Let's say he doesn't ittl. Of course a true fast war was impossible, however an early northern campaign would certainly take the republicans by surprise and place them on the backfoot.
Second of all despite his faults, Porfirio Diaz was a good general and would have been an asset to the Imperial cause, and he was the very epitome of being the sly bastard who worked for his safety. Diaz also did have imperial sympathies according to Juarez's letters and his economic policy seemed to match that of what Maximilian I wrote down as well. So a few tweaks here and there (such as the republican defeats at the fast campaign in the north putting him on the backfoot and some rapprochement policies perhaps?) Diaz is lured to the Imperial side becoming a valuable general and military commander in his own right.[1]
Third of all, Bazaine had promised Maximilian to work with him to create a proper Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, however the promise was never kept and Maximilian trying to point the promise out led to fallouts and arguments otl due to Bazaine's pride. Don Jose Ramirez advised [2] the emperor that using native pro-imperial mexican generals and administrators, the empire could make its own army pretty quickly, however Maximilian I did not take this advise for fear of alienating the French. Let's say he takes the offer, and using the local generals and administrators, as well as aid from talented local generals such as Diaz to create the Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, sending Carlotta to assure the French and conducting anti-guerilla campaigns as the French take the lead.
This has a two fold affect. If the Mexican Imperial Forces can take anti-guerilla campaign, then the republican forces will become severely depleted. After that the French unlike otl will not have to leave behind massive garrisons and will be able to defeat the republicans in the north in more detail.
Fourth, OTL, the French raised the notion of making a navy for the Imperial Mexicans to blockade sea lanes to the Republican controlled ports form where supplies from the USA were filtering in. Maximilian deflected this and instead developed a fledgling merchant fleet (which juarez sold after the war otl), let's say that after some heated debates and France using their authority over Maximilian to create a Mexican Navy. Not only does this plug the gaps in the French blockade, it provides a new source of employment and construction potential in Mexico, leading to *some* pro-imperial sentiment.
Fifth. French forces and some pro-Maximilian generals otl raised the idea of making the confederate generals who fled to mexico to take up service in the Imperial Mexican Army to have more experienced generals who knew warfare. This was rejected by the government in Mexico City (not Maximilian, he seemed ambiguous to the idea) however let's say that with some strings, the idea is okayed, and some CSA generals like Jo Shelby, Edmund Kirby, Smith Sterling Price who were settlers in the New Virginia Colony, are given command for money and homelands. OTL it seemed that they were eager to take command but were disappointed by the fact that the mexican government rejected this. Despite the CSA's many many faults, one cannot fault that these generals had war experience, and knew how to fight. Having them fight actively in the war would make the republican lives extremely hard, and free's up generals take the pacific areas in earnest and consolidate imperial gains. Plus actually using the 9,000 or so Confederate veterans lying around would also add valuable manpower for the empire and could be spun off as a story of 'proving their loyalty to the empire'. [3]
Sixth. Maximilian I was very very popular with the natives for his pro-native policy, and this could have been used to his advantage. Using hearts and mind tactics in the natives was successful, and projecting it to the normal peoples of mexico could have been similarly successful as well. Seventh the black decree should not happen. [4]
Using a combination of above, win the war with the republicans, exile Juarez to maybe one of the mexican islands in the pacific and then start a new period in mexican history
Footnotes:
[1] I find the notion that is raised in many threads on the second empire that juarez could be lured to the imperial side unrealistic. It went against his entire ideals. I find luring Diaz to the imperial side a much more easier and better proposal all things considered.
[2] This guy gave a lot of good advise, much of which was not taken by Maximilian I. Making them more amicable, and making Maximilian I taking a good amount of his advise could seriously change the shape of the country during the war.
[3] The New Virginia Plan was actually quite elaborate and would have been quite successful, as many confederates had expressed interest to immigrate however did not due to the volatile nature of the empire. Increased immigration would of course mean increased innovation and capital for the empire.
[4] From the various books i have read on the empire, i can discern, from some numbers from Emperor Maximilian I of Mexico: The Life of the Last European Monarch in Mexico by Charles River Editors, around 1/3 of the country was pro-imperial, 1/3 country was republican and 1/3 was ambivalent. So increasing the portion of pro-imperial will need to be taken seriously and not only just in the native population.
This is just one scenario, i am sure our mexican friends can come up with a wayy more interesting scenario that is wayy more plausible ( and i would love to hear them down below). So anyways, what would be the short term and long term consequences of the Second Mexican Empire coming out on top?