Not sending Miguel Miramón to Berlin is another POD that could be useful, as he could become a vital piece building the imperial army. His military talent could also be a great boost to the campaign against the Republicans.

I agree with others that retaking Central America is mostly a pipe dream. However, Mexico could pull the Central American states closer to its orbit through other means without outright annexation. Better relations with GB could lead to the purchase of Belize or at least a border adjustment favorable to Mexico, something that, if I recall correctly, jycee did in one of their timelines.

Speaking about Pacific expansion, Mexican Hawaii, anyone? And perhaps restarting something akin to the Manila galleon.

I'll ponder more about the scenario and come back with more input. A thriving, surviving Second Mexican Empires is one of my favorite ATL scenarios for Mexico.

Edit: shout out to @KingSweden24 and his wonderful timeline "Cinco de Mayo" which explores this precise scenario.
The more I think about it, the more I like the Mexican Pacific expansion idea. After all, what was Max best known for before he was Viceroy of Lombardy-Venetia? Being CinC of the Austrian Navy, which he modernized considerably. The man loved the sea, and promoted research voyages that gained fame in the day.
Once the political situation in Mexico was stabilized, building up a strong naval and merchant fleet could become a matter of national pride, and promote unity between the factions (maybe).
A Mexican Hawaii would probably preserve the royal dynasty there. Hawaii was internationally recognized as an independent state, and its monarchy was evolving under a very European model. Becoming a protectorate, vassal state even, of the Empire would be more palatable than falling under the sway of a firmly anti-monarchist nation like the US (and its various corporate interests)...
And, speaking of Manila.... the Philippines were formerly de jure administered from New Spain. Max could take the opportunity of political instability in Spain (1st Spanish Republic, or any number of other events - just pick one, there were plenty to choose from :p) and launch a "temporary occupation of the Philippines until order returns to the Spanish Realm"... which of course could forseeably become permanent :)
This would have quite interesting implications for Pacific realpolitik in the 20th Century ;)
 
True enough. Still I was trying something new
Nothing wrong with previously tried methods, especially if it could be spun differently.
indeed miramon too is a good scenario.
I think a second mexican empire will get involved in the construction of the panama canal as well ittl......
since max was a pro-naval guy as well, i could see the navy being expanded as well.
Oh man, I would be down with that so hard!
 
I think a second mexican empire will get involved in the construction of the panama canal as well ittl......
since max was a pro-naval guy as well, i could see the navy being expanded as well.
Not a chance maybe because it's more likely that Max would do some stuff that will help develop his country than to build a canal on foreign zone, remember he is an immigrant monarch.
Now a Second mexican empire has been a hot topic for many years on this forum, and i am really interested in it admittedly. Now, i have done *some* intensive research on the matter in the A levels on north american history, so managed to make a somewhat plausible scenario in which Maximilian I manages to win (though i am sure my fellow mexican forum members can correct, because i am pretty sure there are some mistakes here and there or some implausible events). So this is my rought sketch of how Maximilian can do to win the imperial vs republican war.

In 1864 when he arrived in Mexico, the mexican population was gauged to be pro-imperial in the central portion of the country and the indigenous tracts of the country and pro-republican mainly in the north. Maximilian's foreign appointee Don Jose Ramirez pointed this out otl the moment he was appointed and advised Maximilian I to conduct a 'fast war' in the north to defeat the Republicans. Maximilian I ignored this otl. Let's say he doesn't ittl. Of course a true fast war was impossible, however an early northern campaign would certainly take the republicans by surprise and place them on the backfoot.

Second of all despite his faults, Porfirio Diaz was a good general and would have been an asset to the Imperial cause, and he was the very epitome of being the sly bastard who worked for his safety. Diaz also did have imperial sympathies according to Juarez's letters and his economic policy seemed to match that of what Maximilian I wrote down as well. So a few tweaks here and there (such as the republican defeats at the fast campaign in the north putting him on the backfoot and some rapprochement policies perhaps?) Diaz is lured to the Imperial side becoming a valuable general and military commander in his own right.[1]

Third of all, Bazaine had promised Maximilian to work with him to create a proper Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, however the promise was never kept and Maximilian trying to point the promise out led to fallouts and arguments otl due to Bazaine's pride. Don Jose Ramirez advised [2] the emperor that using native pro-imperial mexican generals and administrators, the empire could make its own army pretty quickly, however Maximilian I did not take this advise for fear of alienating the French. Let's say he takes the offer, and using the local generals and administrators, as well as aid from talented local generals such as Diaz to create the Imperial Mexican Armed Forces, sending Carlotta to assure the French and conducting anti-guerilla campaigns as the French take the lead.

This has a two fold affect. If the Mexican Imperial Forces can take anti-guerilla campaign, then the republican forces will become severely depleted. After that the French unlike otl will not have to leave behind massive garrisons and will be able to defeat the republicans in the north in more detail.

Fourth, OTL, the French raised the notion of making a navy for the Imperial Mexicans to blockade sea lanes to the Republican controlled ports form where supplies from the USA were filtering in. Maximilian deflected this and instead developed a fledgling merchant fleet (which juarez sold after the war otl), let's say that after some heated debates and France using their authority over Maximilian to create a Mexican Navy. Not only does this plug the gaps in the French blockade, it provides a new source of employment and construction potential in Mexico, leading to *some* pro-imperial sentiment.

Fifth. French forces and some pro-Maximilian generals otl raised the idea of making the confederate generals who fled to mexico to take up service in the Imperial Mexican Army to have more experienced generals who knew warfare. This was rejected by the government in Mexico City (not Maximilian, he seemed ambiguous to the idea) however let's say that with some strings, the idea is okayed, and some CSA generals like Jo Shelby, Edmund Kirby, Smith Sterling Price who were settlers in the New Virginia Colony, are given command for money and homelands. OTL it seemed that they were eager to take command but were disappointed by the fact that the mexican government rejected this. Despite the CSA's many many faults, one cannot fault that these generals had war experience, and knew how to fight. Having them fight actively in the war would make the republican lives extremely hard, and free's up generals take the pacific areas in earnest and consolidate imperial gains. Plus actually using the 9,000 or so Confederate veterans lying around would also add valuable manpower for the empire and could be spun off as a story of 'proving their loyalty to the empire'. [3]

Sixth. Maximilian I was very very popular with the natives for his pro-native policy, and this could have been used to his advantage. Using hearts and mind tactics in the natives was successful, and projecting it to the normal peoples of mexico could have been similarly successful as well. Seventh the black decree should not happen. [4]

Using a combination of above, win the war with the republicans, exile Juarez to maybe one of the mexican islands in the pacific and then start a new period in mexican history


Footnotes:
[1] I find the notion that is raised in many threads on the second empire that juarez could be lured to the imperial side unrealistic. It went against his entire ideals. I find luring Diaz to the imperial side a much more easier and better proposal all things considered.
[2] This guy gave a lot of good advise, much of which was not taken by Maximilian I. Making them more amicable, and making Maximilian I taking a good amount of his advise could seriously change the shape of the country during the war.
[3] The New Virginia Plan was actually quite elaborate and would have been quite successful, as many confederates had expressed interest to immigrate however did not due to the volatile nature of the empire. Increased immigration would of course mean increased innovation and capital for the empire.
[4] From the various books i have read on the empire, i can discern, from some numbers from Emperor Maximilian I of Mexico: The Life of the Last European Monarch in Mexico by Charles River Editors, around 1/3 of the country was pro-imperial, 1/3 country was republican and 1/3 was ambivalent. So increasing the portion of pro-imperial will need to be taken seriously and not only just in the native population.

This is just one scenario, i am sure our mexican friends can come up with a wayy more interesting scenario that is wayy more plausible ( and i would love to hear them down below). So anyways, what would be the short term and long term consequences of the Second Mexican Empire coming out on top?
Maybe the better scenario for this is Juarez joining max. Well if Juarez surrenders and joins max to be his pm. Not only he crushed the republican dream but he just showed that the imperialistas are the better side than the republicans. Well after that Max surely would beat the remaining forces well he has Juarez on his side and Juarez knows the locations of the republican strongholds. The confederate generals going to mexico seems odd, well liberals might think that he is promoting some pro slavery contexts. Porfio Diaz seems likely that he would launch a coup or if not launch another rebellion or civil war.
 
indeed miramon too is a good scenario.
I think a second mexican empire will get involved in the construction of the panama canal as well ittl......
since max was a pro-naval guy as well, i could see the navy being expanded as well.
In lieu of a canal (especially one across the territory of another nation), Max might be better served by building a good, fast rail link across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with good modern port facilities constructed at each terminus. In OTL this wasn't done until like 1893 - no real reason it couldn't have been done 20-odd years earlier. That's a LOT of revenue that could be brought in, before that other country builds that canal further south :)
 
Maybe the better scenario for this is Juarez joining max. Well if Juarez surrenders and joins max to be his pm. Not only he crushed the republican dream but he just showed that the imperialistas are the better side than the republicans. Well after that Max surely would beat the remaining forces well he has Juarez on his side and Juarez knows the locations of the republican strongholds. The confederate generals going to mexico seems odd, well liberals might think that he is promoting some pro slavery contexts. Porfio Diaz seems likely that he would launch a coup or if not launch another rebellion or civil war.
It seems possible for Max to balance bringing former confeds with other things that would please the liberals, no?
 
Not a chance maybe because it's more likely that Max would do some stuff that will help develop his country than to build a canal on foreign zone, remember he is an immigrant monarch.
Canal control usually happens in international areas. For example Britain in Egypt and America in Panama. I could see Max investing heavily into the nicaragua canal to make it a virtual economic puppet of mexico.
Maybe the better scenario for this is Juarez joining max. Well if Juarez surrenders and joins max to be his pm. Not only he crushed the republican dream but he just showed that the imperialistas are the better side than the republicans. Well after that Max surely would beat the remaining forces well he has Juarez on his side and Juarez knows the locations of the republican strongholds. The confederate generals going to mexico seems odd, well liberals might think that he is promoting some pro slavery contexts. Porfio Diaz seems likely that he would launch a coup or if not launch another rebellion or civil war.
Juarez joining Max is not happening, at all. They were polar opposites politically. Killing him through an accident or exiling him to one of the mexican pacific islands would be more suitable.
 
In lieu of a canal (especially one across the territory of another nation), Max might be better served by building a good, fast rail link across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with good modern port facilities constructed at each terminus. In OTL this wasn't done until like 1893 - no real reason it couldn't have been done 20-odd years earlier. That's a LOT of revenue that could be brought in, before that other country builds that canal further south :)
indeed. That too. I believe Diaz based his good economics on the rail link on the isthmus otl.
 
It seems possible for Max to balance bringing former confeds with other things that would please the liberals, no?
the mexican government was more worried about the usa if they used confederate generals than the other liberals who were ambiguous to the whole idea.
 
I don't see why Mexico couldn't gobble up Guatemala and probably the rest of Central America. If the Second Empire is stable enough and militarily capable of projecting that power, there's nothing stopping it. And national identities are so fluid at this point that Central Americans soon accepting being Mexicans isn't unthinkable.
 
The Empire needs French military support to survive, and that's only going to stay with a Confederate victory in the American Civil War leaving the US all but shut out of Latin American affairs.
 
Juarez joining Max is not happening, at all. They were polar opposites politically. Killing him through an accident or exiling him to one of the mexican pacific islands would be more suitable.
Not really, well they are both liberals and they have identical policies. Juarez joining max is better than killing him or exiling him. well they might glorrify that event and give the republicans more inspiration to fight. And how can you say they are polar opposites, they can just join forces and Make mexico a liberal fantasy land. Well the people of Mexico wants reforms right
Canal control usually happens in international areas. For example Britain in Egypt and America in Panama. I could see Max investing heavily into the nicaragua canal to make it a virtual economic puppet of mexico.
You do understand that mexico is not that rich back then and it's gonna take 20 - 30 years for them to fully develop their economy before doing that if done without delays.
 
I don't see why Mexico couldn't gobble up Guatemala and probably the rest of Central America. If the Second Empire is stable enough and militarily capable of projecting that power, there's nothing stopping it. And national identities are so fluid at this point that Central Americans soon accepting being Mexicans isn't unthinkable.
guatemala? Maybe
The rest of central america? The USA and Britain and France will not allow that to happen. They would loose their sphere of influence in that case.
 
The Empire needs French military support to survive, and that's only going to stay with a Confederate victory in the American Civil War leaving the US all but shut out of Latin American affairs.
For the first few years of its life, i agree it needs French military support, however after it gets on its own two feet, especially with an imperial mexican navy and army being made during the war, it will not require french aid indefinitely.
 
Not really, well they are both liberals and they have identical policies.
No they didn't. They both were liberals in their own way. Liberalism as a political topic has many subdivisions as well. Maximilian I is categorized by historians as a Liberal conservative (link) whilst Juarez is considered by historians to be a normal run of the mill liberal.
uarez joining max is better than killing him or exiling him. well they might glorrify that event and give the republicans more inspiration to fight
It kinda wouldn't. The Republicans were split into massive factions which was being held together by Juarez. Remove him, and the factions will start splitting left, right and center, as it almost happened in 1864 and 65 otl.
And how can you say they are polar opposites, they can just join forces and Make mexico a liberal fantasy land. Well the people of Mexico wants reforms right
If you are thinking about 'Mexican Fantasy Land' then this argument is useless. For one it is a ridiculous strawman, secondly it's not even an argument, its a childish remark. Regardless however

Maximilian was a Liberal Conservative. Juarez a liberal
Maximilian was pro-monarch, Juarez was anti-monarchy
Maximilian was pro-native, Juarez was anti-native
Maximilian was pro-europe, Juarez hated europe's influence in his country
Maximilian was pro-France, Juarez was anti-France
Maximilian was pro-Economic Protectionism, Juarez was anti-Protectionism
Maximilian was pro-democratic nobility, Juarez was anti-nobilty of any kind
Maximilian was pro-European immigration en masse to Mexico, Juarez was anti-immigration in this regard
Maximilian was pro-navy, Juarez was largely anti-navy

Politically, economically and socially, yes they were polar opposites.
You do understand that mexico is not that rich back then and it's gonna take 20 - 30 years for them to fully develop their economy before doing that if done without delays.
Yes i do. Which is why i said by the end of the 19th century. Ample time there.
 
Maximilian was pro-navy, Juarez was largely anti-navy
How can you say he is anti navy if he sold the fleet of the second mexican empire, you do understand that mexico is broke. that is why he sold the navy and it is very expensive to maintain.
Maximilian was pro-France, Juarez was anti-France
Max is not pro france, He even contradicted some of the policies of France that he thinks is anti mexico, he never gave in to the wants of france when he feeels that it challenges the sovereignty of Mexico.
Maximilian was pro-democratic nobility, Juarez was anti-nobilty of any kind
Obviously Mexico was traumatized at the first empire and it's collapse that made the country in shambles
 
How can you say he is anti navy if he sold the fleet of the second mexican empire, you do understand that mexico is broke. that is why he sold the navy and it is very expensive to maintain.
The commercial navy built by Maximilian I was so lucrative that many members of the financial ministry resigned when Juarez sold them. Had he sold only the warships they wouldn't have because they understood the need to gain money, however the commercial navy was gaining more money than for what it was sold for. So yes, he sold the commercial navy for no benefit at all other than it once belonged to the second empire.
Max is not pro france, He even contradicted some of the policies of France that he thinks is anti mexico, he never gave in to the wants of france when he feeels that it challenges the sovereignty of Mexico.
He was pro-France in a majority of his policies. He gave France exclusive commerical rights, allowed French military access to be renewed every 15 years, allowed tariffs on France to be massively lowered etc, and also followed French demands and declared the Black Law as per French demands. He did contradict a few French demands however overall he was very pro-French.
Obviously Mexico was traumatized at the first empire and it's collapse that made the country in shambles
No. Simply no. The Fall of the First Empire did not affect the mexican catholic nobility at all. They just became oligarchs and continued to live their lavish life and controlling the country. The nobility was largely destroyed only in the Reform War.
 
Not a chance maybe because it's more likely that Max would do some stuff that will help develop his country than to build a canal on foreign zone, remember he is an immigrant monarch.
There were three routes considered for the canal OTL. One through Nicaragua, one through Panama and the third through Tehuantepec (in Mexico itself). Abd between 1857 and 1882 there was a lot of work done on the Tehuantepec route.
 
He was pro-France in a majority of his policies. He gave France exclusive commerical rights, allowed French military access to be renewed every 15 years, allowed tariffs on France to be massively lowered etc, and also followed French demands and declared the Black Law as per French demands. He did contradict a few French demands however overall he was very pro-French.

You see all kinds of petty defiance from client states, which the Second Mexican Empire definitely was. In the Warsaw Pact it was routine even though they all backed the Soviets militarily without hesitation when it mattered. The same kind of friction existed between the US and South Vietnam over dozens of issues. Colonial powers often got lip from their client chiefdoms.

That's why there's a difference between outright annexation/colonization and installing allies in power. Each has pros and cons for the great power doing it. In the case of Mexico, the Empire and the French intervention were based in the conservative elements of society, even though Maximilian had a vision to break out of that narrow set of expectations somewhat with his liberal conservatism. That works out just fine for the French, because if the Hapsburgs want to keep the throne against the conservatives, who will want to install the Iturbides after Maximillian, they will have to lean on French influence permanently.
 
The only question is would the United states allow that action. Would they allow a strong mexico, sure Maximilian might do that but the united states can always send supplies at the border to fund and arm the Juaristas. And when the French get out of Mexico in otl the Imperialistas forces are doomed against the modernized Juaristas. Would the united states allow a french client state or a latin american power going strong
 
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