How to get a Japan First strategy?

What would it take for the W.allies to adopt a Japan First strategy after the German declaration of war on The USA?

Allies being convinced of imminent Soviet collapse?

Defeat in NA?

Inability to lend-lease USSR?

What are the pros and cons of a Japan First strategy and when would it be more effective than Germany First?
 
What would it take for the W.allies to adopt a Japan First strategy after the German declaration of war on The USA?

Allies being convinced of imminent Soviet collapse?

Defeat in NA?

Inability to lend-lease USSR?

What are the pros and cons of a Japan First strategy and when would it be more effective than Germany First?

The closer it appears to the Germans managing to actually bring about a Soviet collapse/surrender, the naturally greater the sense of urgency to get lumps in on the European access while Uncle Joe is still there to soak up Nazi resources that could otherwise be turned against Britain/raise the cost of any moves against the continent is going to get. In contrast, I'd say the best way to get a "Japan First" policy would be to have Japanese campaign in China appear to be going far better and to have the Soviets blunt the initial push of Barbarossa earlier. Say, for instance, have some of the warlords/cliques in China refuse to join/break off from the United Front and become collaborators, the Germans capture fewer pockets of Red Army troops, ect. In that case, Britain and the US would see that its "safe" to allow Stalin to stew in his own juices, while Chiang runs the risk of collapsing, thereby freeing up Japanese resources to deal more damage to the Allied position in the long run, if they don't act.
 
Have the Japanese somehow, for some foolish reason, successfully land in Hawaii and enact standard IJA protocols for a resisting population.
 
Or the old classic, Japan pisses off the US before Germany gets grabby with its neighbors.
 
Or the old classic, Japan pisses off the US before Germany gets grabby with its neighbors.

The most likely. If you move the PoD back a few years it allows huge changes globally, and more specifically in US mobilization.

... Defeat in NA? ...

What are the pros and cons of a Japan First strategy and when would it be more effective than Germany First?

Less effort vs Germany means it can strengthen

The Europe first strategy was laid on at the start of US mobilization. Changing it as per the OP means changes in the nature of the US mobilization with attendant inefficiencies and waste.

Getting directly at Japan required completion of the naval construction program. That was going as fast as practical & not much acceleration could be had.
 
How about more of a 51/49% Japan First?

Very loose outline.

POD Churchill doesn't send troops from North Africa to Greece. Operation Compass continues. O'Connor is in Tripoli by July 1941. German paratroopers are used in a last ditch attempt to cut off the British supply lines. The remaining Axis troops attempt to retreat into Tunisia. The French are not amused and the Mareth Line becomes the anvil to O'Connor's hammer.
Greece falls a little faster. British reinforce Crete by moving in troops from East Africa as that campaign winds down. The island holds, mainly due to the German paratroop corp being depleted in Tripoli.

Results prior to Dec, 7 1941.

North Africa in Allied hands.
Algeria and most French colonies join the Free French.
French Fleet in North Africa largely joins Allies, refits in US ports as needed.
Mediterranean route is opened partially. Allied shipping hugs the coast and runs past Cape Bon at night.
Large air war contesting area between Tunisia and Sicily
Pantelleria becomes the Italian equivalent of Malta
No costly Malta supply runs.
Ark Royal not sunk.
British begin planning invasion of Sardinia and Corsica
Singapore and Burma reinforced with troops not required in North Africa

Results after Dec, 7 1941

RN Carriers quickly sent to Indian Ocean if not already present.
Singapore and much of Malay Peninsula and Burma held.
Bloody draw naval battle fought between RN and IJN near Timor
Timor reinforced and held
Wasp sent to Pacific earlier
Ranger sent to Ferry aircraft to Australia instead of Africa

So in Spring 1942 America wants to knock Japan out of the fight first. Churchill likes the soft underbelly / Balkans ideas even more than OTL.

Allied Plan Pacific
Send some US Divisions to Burma that OTL were used for Torch
Island hop through DEI.


Allied plan Europe
British / US Invasion of Sardinia/Corsica in Fall 1942
Invade Sicily in early 1943 with significant participation of Free French troops equipped with US made gear.
Develop Bomber bases in Crete and Sardinia
Invade Greece or Italy after US lands troops in Philippines and Japanese fleet pushed back to home waters.

UK may decide to do Balkans campaign without US or Italy may seek a separate peace in late 1943.
 
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