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To put my question very shortly, how do we make the US another Paraguay? IOTL Paraguay was a rising industrial power, with a high population density and control over vital waterways in the La Plata river basin. However, despite its military power and technological advancement, it was destroyed due to its leader's arrogance and mismanagement.

How do we get the same fate to befall the fledgling USA? (Most preferably before the mid-19th century). I don't want the US carved up into several states, but rather have its territory significantly curbed and its population utterly demolished. Hopefully we can have this happen before it starts expanding beyond the Mississippi.

How's this for plausibility: Napoleon never becomes leader of France, but the French Revolutionary Wars don't stop, they're just much less succesful. That way, the Louisiana Purchase never happens, the War of 1812 can still happen, as odds are the British will still be impressing American sailors for the war effort (the trigger of the war OTL), and there's a possibility of Spain joining in for some reason.

How about a French invasion of Spain sometime between 1800 and 1805, and the US reacts by claiming administration of New Orleans and the Louisiana Territory? By the time the Spanish have repulsed the French (assuming that the French are doing much worse ITTL), the Americans are occupying most of Florida, New Orleans, and have made several passes at Texas and Cuba. The Spanish and the British, who have forged a fairly strong alliance through the war with France, land in Florida and Louisiana, pushing out the American occupation. If the US continues to attack Canada like the OTL war of 1812, is it possible that a complete, total war will occur, not unlike the OTL War of the Triple Alliance?
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