How the WWI wester front develop if Italy stay neutral?

It a question for a probable TL (if real life permit), the POD is that Italy mantain neutrality for the entire of WWI, what happen in the Western Front?
 
I doubt much of anything. The Austrians aren't really in a position to send troops, and there just wasn't that much German commitment to the Italian front.
 
Possibly slightly more British and French successes, as a large amount of British and French aid went to the Italians, especially after Caporetto. I don't think it will be anything very decisive, though.
 

Deleted member 1487

It a question for a probable TL (if real life permit), the POD is that Italy mantain neutrality for the entire of WWI, what happen in the Western Front?
Good question! Its a complex answer that will require information about the rest of the fronts though. First of all assuming Italy remains neutral, it will have to have a reason to do so. Let's just say that it doesn't change their 1914 stance, so Italy keeps trading with Germany and Austria-Hungary. Minimal AH troops stay on the Italian border. This means several hundred thousand more for the other fronts.
In 1915 that means about 100,000 extra in May and it will only go up from there, as historically the Italian front drew in major parts of the AH army and used up vast resources, especially the limited munition stores AH desperately needed to conserve.

The big thing will be in May when the AHs and German don't need to send troops there instead of the Eastern Front. That means more pressure continuously after Gorlice-Tarnow. This may well butterfly away the botched Autumn AH offensive that failed so badly, which leaves AH in a very good position by the end of 1915 (relative to their OTL position). Basically Serbia can be dealt with earlier (by a month or two) and fewer German troops are needed (the Alpine corps for instance, which was on the Trentino Front at this time IRRC will be available instead).
Basically AH is better off in 1915 headed into 1916, which means fewer German troops are needed to shore them up, so they can be used in the West. There isn't as great a panic about the French breaking through in September, but nothing really changes outside the Eastern Front.

The big change will be the Brusilov offensive. AH will attack the Russians first and probably do alright. This butterflies away the Brusilov offensive and leaves the Germans free to take on Verdun and the Somme without diverting some 150,000 men and artillery East. The Russians will have to attack the Germans in the Baltic, unlike OTL, but this won't result in much of a difference, just more Russian dead and less pressure on the AHs.

Verdun and the Somme don't really change, but there are more Entente losses thanks to more German artillery and reserves. German losses are probably even less than OTL, but not by considerably much. However, 1916 will see AH in a better position, Romania won't join the war, saving even more Germans and AHs from having to fight another enemy, plus the Romanians won't stop selling food and oil to the Central Powers. BIG win for the CPs. Many claim that occupying Romania got the CPs through the Turnip Winter, but that is just plain false. Romania entering hurt the Germans badly because the looted goods were less than what had been sold. Not only that, but it drew off their forces, forced them to spend even more precious coal relocating troops, and most importantly cost them their best CoS Falkenhayn.

The simple fact that Falkenhayn won't fall as a result of Romania will change everything. There won't be a Turnip Winter or a coal crisis thanks to Falkenhayn not messing around with the German economy like Ludendorff did. Instead the German economy remains (relatively) balanced, and production increases to keep them in the game. Plus Falkenhayn pushes for peace. This means that 1917 is the last year of the war.
Falky will get credit for holding at the Somme and for Russia falling into revolution, soldifying his position for when he starts negotiations instead of unrestricted subwarfare and won't allow the Zimmermann note to be sent. The US stays out. Now Russia will exit the war early, probably in July-August of 1917 thanks to no loans and a more stable AH and potentially Romania entering the war to grab Bessarabia.
France starts running out of money, which Britain has to help them with, but the damage is done. More troops are available immediately in July-August for the Western Front and Germany probably goes on the offensive somewhere else to counter the British at Passchendaele (it was their stated goal in 1917, as defending or counterattacking there wasn't working. The only solution was to change the game by attacking elsewhere to distract the British). This might fall on the French, perhaps at Verdun. By the end of the year negotiations have started and the war will end then or in early 1918.

Basically Italy neutral means Germany and AH don't lose the war and probably means AH survives the war.
 
Thanks Wiking very helpfull and detailed. With your permission, i will use something out of your TL about A-H putting a east first stragety, principally data about austrian economic and military performance
 

Deleted member 1487

Thanks Wiking very helpfull and detailed. With your permission, i will use something out of your TL about A-H putting a east first stragety, principally data about austrian economic and military performance
By all means.
 

Deleted member 1487

I do think that this could lead Romania to join the war on the side of the Central Powers?
I depends how the Eastern Front goes. Without the pressure and temptation that Italy exerted on AH, Romania most likely stays neutral and attacks Russia only when its clear she will lose. Hungary has the territory Romania wants, so it doesn't make sense to go CP early on, but when its time for a consolation prize, Bessarabia will do.
 
Well maybe when all the work done to bring Italy in the war failed, the entente will put all is effort to recruit Greece (and Romania), but the problem is the king
 
Good question! Its a complex answer that will require information about the rest of the fronts though. First of all assuming Italy remains neutral, it will have to have a reason to do so. Let's just say that it doesn't change their 1914 stance, so Italy keeps trading with Germany and Austria-Hungary. Minimal AH troops stay on the Italian border. This means several hundred thousand more for the other fronts.
In 1915 that means about 100,000 extra in May and it will only go up from there, as historically the Italian front drew in major parts of the AH army and used up vast resources, especially the limited munition stores AH desperately needed to conserve.

The big thing will be in May when the AHs and German don't need to send troops there instead of the Eastern Front. That means more pressure continuously after Gorlice-Tarnow. This may well butterfly away the botched Autumn AH offensive that failed so badly, which leaves AH in a very good position by the end of 1915 (relative to their OTL position). Basically Serbia can be dealt with earlier (by a month or two) and fewer German troops are needed (the Alpine corps for instance, which was on the Trentino Front at this time IRRC will be available instead).
Basically AH is better off in 1915 headed into 1916, which means fewer German troops are needed to shore them up, so they can be used in the West. There isn't as great a panic about the French breaking through in September, but nothing really changes outside the Eastern Front.

The big change will be the Brusilov offensive. AH will attack the Russians first and probably do alright. This butterflies away the Brusilov offensive and leaves the Germans free to take on Verdun and the Somme without diverting some 150,000 men and artillery East. The Russians will have to attack the Germans in the Baltic, unlike OTL, but this won't result in much of a difference, just more Russian dead and less pressure on the AHs.

Verdun and the Somme don't really change, but there are more Entente losses thanks to more German artillery and reserves. German losses are probably even less than OTL, but not by considerably much. However, 1916 will see AH in a better position, Romania won't join the war, saving even more Germans and AHs from having to fight another enemy, plus the Romanians won't stop selling food and oil to the Central Powers. BIG win for the CPs. Many claim that occupying Romania got the CPs through the Turnip Winter, but that is just plain false. Romania entering hurt the Germans badly because the looted goods were less than what had been sold. Not only that, but it drew off their forces, forced them to spend even more precious coal relocating troops, and most importantly cost them their best CoS Falkenhayn.

The simple fact that Falkenhayn won't fall as a result of Romania will change everything. There won't be a Turnip Winter or a coal crisis thanks to Falkenhayn not messing around with the German economy like Ludendorff did. Instead the German economy remains (relatively) balanced, and production increases to keep them in the game. Plus Falkenhayn pushes for peace. This means that 1917 is the last year of the war.
Falky will get credit for holding at the Somme and for Russia falling into revolution, soldifying his position for when he starts negotiations instead of unrestricted subwarfare and won't allow the Zimmermann note to be sent. The US stays out. Now Russia will exit the war early, probably in July-August of 1917 thanks to no loans and a more stable AH and potentially Romania entering the war to grab Bessarabia.
France starts running out of money, which Britain has to help them with, but the damage is done. More troops are available immediately in July-August for the Western Front and Germany probably goes on the offensive somewhere else to counter the British at Passchendaele (it was their stated goal in 1917, as defending or counterattacking there wasn't working. The only solution was to change the game by attacking elsewhere to distract the British). This might fall on the French, perhaps at Verdun. By the end of the year negotiations have started and the war will end then or in early 1918.

Basically Italy neutral means Germany and AH don't lose the war and probably means AH survives the war.

Why do you think that? Falkheyn fell because he was causing Germany massive casulaties and those would have still happened ITL. Also, Italy's effort in the war is instantly drowned out by the USA, which will still enter the war because Germany by 1917 was desperate to strangle Britian's maritime trade. The Entente probably still wins but Italy doesn't get as shafted as in OTL (maybe commits its own independent military actions against AH towards the end of the war.
 

Deleted member 1487

Why do you think that? Falkheyn fell because he was causing Germany massive casulaties and those would have still happened ITL. Also, Italy's effort in the war is instantly drowned out by the USA, which will still enter the war because Germany by 1917 was desperate to strangle Britian's maritime trade. The Entente probably still wins but Italy doesn't get as shafted as in OTL (maybe commits its own independent military actions against AH towards the end of the war.

Falk specifically was dropped because of Romanian entry into the war. The Brusilov offensive also harmed his credibilty too, regardless of the western front. Verdun was only part of the equation in his removal, so by removing half of the reason, especially the exact cause of his fall, there is no event that will result in Ludendorff rising. H-L were the reason for the sub campaign, even though the general staff was advising them against it, because it relied on shaddy calculations. With Falky still around Bethmann-Holweg isn't pressured into going along, nor is the Kaiser strong-armed into accepting it. Falk was adament that negotiations begin in 1917, so he opposed anything that would bring in another foe, i.e. the US. So no subs if he still retains his post, which without Romania, Italy, or the Brusilov offensive he will do.
 
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