How susceptible is the Chicogo Fire of 1871?

How susceptible is the Chicogo Fire of 1871 to butterflies?
 
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Assuming Wiki factualness

The fire started at about 9 p.m. on Sunday, October 8th, in or around a small barn that bordered the alley behind 137 DeKoven Street. he barn was the first building to be consumed by the fire, but the official report could not determine the exact cause of it.

The fire's spread was aided by the city's overuse of wood for building, a drought prior to the fire, and strong winds from the southwest that carried flying embers toward the heart of the city. The city did not react quickly enough, and at first, residents were not concerned about it, not realizing the high risk of conditions. The firefighters were tired from having fought a fire the day before. The firefighters fought the flames through the entire day and became exhausted. As the fire jumped to a nearby neighborhood, it began to destroy mansions, houses and apartments, most made of wood and dried out from the drought. After two days of the fire burning out of control, rain helped douse the remaining fire. City officials estimated that more than 300 people died in the fire and over 100,000 were left homeless

So, for PoDs you have

- no fire in the barn
- fire in the barn gets put out
- no drought
- less exhausted fire service
- more initial concern
- faster response by other districts
- more concerned citizenry taking active participation

What you can't allow for, of course, is whether the NEXT small fire with the potential to cause a major conflagration gets controlled.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
There were several other fires in the Lake Michigan area on that same day, most notably the one in Peshtigo, WI, which killed about 1500 people. If the Chicago Fire had not started on the same day, how long would it have taken for news of any of those to reach Chicago? Is it possible that awareness of the Peshtigo Fire would have alerted Chicago to the potential hazard caused by the drought and other contributing conditions?
 

mowque

Banned
Odds are you'll get a big fire of some kind that season. But I think it is plausible for Chicago to get lucky. The luck will run out at some point though. the next week, month or year.
 
Susceptible to what?

Essentially, how vulnerable was Chicago was to a major fire. He's probably trying to think of way in which to butterfly it away, which isn't all that plausible.
Damn it! I meant to say butterflies in my OP. Sorry for the confusion I'll edit that.

Basically I have a Tl which involves a POD during the Civil War and I want to know how plausible it is to butterfly away the Chicogo Fire of 1871 as well as the other fires that happened during the same time since there sources are still debated and I don't know the scientifically accepted explanations for what started them.
 
The city was built almost entirely out of wood. The Chicago River wasn't an effective firebreak since it was lined with ships, coal yards, and wooden walkways. The 1871 fire might not occur due to butterflies, but some kind of catastrophic fire is probably inevitable.
 
The city was built almost entirely out of wood. The Chicago River wasn't an effective firebreak since it was lined with ships, coal yards, and wooden walkways. The 1871 fire might not occur due to butterflies, but some kind of catastrophic fire is probably inevitable.

Another major cause of the Chicago Fire jumping across the river was all the animal fat and runoff from the meatpacking district. It would be dumped in the river and float down to the lake. So, even if ships had been cleared from the river, perhaps due to a fire scare earlier in the week, the fire will still likely jump the river.

Without drastic preemptive changes, the sort no person would be willing to endorse, a fire is inevitable. The size, ferocity and damage it does is a different story.
 
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