How successful would forced industrialization of the Congo

Say Simbas or some communist faction takes charge of the Free Republic of the Congo and comes out on top in the Congo crisis

How successful would forced industrialization of the DRC

How large would its economy be by modern times
 
In 1960 the literacy rate was 50% and they had just 16 university graduates out of a population of 15 million.
Whoever is in charge will need significant external help to jumpstart industrialisation.

If the commies get on top and manage to stay in power, only the Soviets can help them at that point in time. But given the circumstances, what could they do?
 
In 1960 the literacy rate was 50% and they had just 16 university graduates out of a population of 15 million.
Whoever is in charge will need significant external help to jumpstart industrialisation.

If the commies get on top and manage to stay in power, only the Soviets can help them at that point in time. But given the circumstances, what could they do?
They could provide technical assistance and open Soviet universities to Congolese students along with setting up universities in the Congo
 
There is essentially zero basic infrastructure in the Congo. You needs roads, railroads, ports, airports first. Also, the USSR did help some African countries "industrialize", like building a steel mill. Unfortunately everything to make steel had to be imported, and there was no market for the steel. Even if the Congo "industrialized" it would take quite some time to do anything that would be competitive on the world market - look how long it took China.
 
There is essentially zero basic infrastructure in the Congo. You needs roads, railroads, ports, airports first. Also, the USSR did help some African countries "industrialize", like building a steel mill. Unfortunately everything to make steel had to be imported, and there was no market for the steel. Even if the Congo "industrialized" it would take quite some time to do anything that would be competitive on the world market - look how long it took China.
That’s not completely accurate. Regions in the copper belt like Katanga had decent infrastructure by African standards. Mines and supporting facilities, roads, rail connections all the way to the Atlantic and vast mineral resources. If all that had been effectively managed as a seed corn for the rest of the country something might have come of it. But in retrospect that was always a pipe dream.
 
I think you could look at how Burkina Faso organised itself to essentially be a self-reliant economy or look to the USSR coming out of a devastating civil war to become the second fastest growing economy in the world during the 20's and 30's only beaten by Japan who used its own form of planned economy to modernise and emerge from semi-feudalism. It would be entirely possible for a well organised and supported government to modernise, educate the population and develop industry and infrastructure but it would certainly be a struggle. The DRC had a lot stacked against it.
 
They could provide technical assistance and open Soviet universities to Congolese students along with setting up universities in the Congo

I think they did the former.
The Moscow university reserved to the formation of third world cadres was even named after Patrick Lumumba.

It's everything else that seems difficult and would take a generation to bear fruit. And besides, what would be in it for the Soviets with such an investment?
 
a well organised and supported government
Unfortunately that’s Africa out of the runnning then. Straight from pre-enlightenment traditional societies to half a century or more of foreign exploitative governance set them up nicely for a half-century of local exploitative governance, and no sign of much improvement.
 
Say Simbas or some communist faction takes charge of the Free Republic of the Congo and comes out on top in the Congo crisis

How successful would forced industrialization of the DRC

How large would its economy be by modern times
I suppose communist rule may result in a de-tribalisation of Congolese society. Which would be important in forging a larger more inclusive indentity in the Congo. Something that unites everyone in the Congo as a unit against the outside.

I don't think Congo would manage to grow and modernise the same way as Japan, South Korea or Turkey. But they could defintley have more economic activity. The main focus of the Congolese state should be anti-corruption, anti-tribalism and state preditability. It would also be important to harness the river systems for cheep transportation.
 
I think you could look at how Burkina Faso organised itself to essentially be a self-reliant economy or look to the USSR coming out of a devastating civil war to become the second fastest growing economy in the world during the 20's and 30's only beaten by Japan who used its own form of planned economy to modernise and emerge from semi-feudalism. It would be entirely possible for a well organised and supported government to modernise, educate the population and develop industry and infrastructure but it would certainly be a struggle. The DRC had a lot stacked against it.
You make a decent point but I think it's incomplete. Russia was on its way to becoming an industrial powerhouse before WWI and the Revolution. Japan had a centralised government, a solid university network and a middle class.
I'm quite a believer in cultural factors: Japan for example, had examples of success and of industry based wealth. China did too, and knew what a succesful China looked like.
For Congo, it had been further away. It's not saying it cannot be pulled off obviously, it can, but I would think it takes time
 
I suppose communist rule may result in a de-tribalisation of Congolese society. Which would be important in forging a larger more inclusive indentity in the Congo. Something that unites everyone in the Congo as a unit against the outside.

I don't think Congo would manage to grow and modernise the same way as Japan, South Korea or Turkey. But they could defintley have more economic activity. The main focus of the Congolese state should be anti-corruption, anti-tribalism and state preditability. It would also be important to harness the river systems for cheep transportation.

Even getting to the level of your average Warsaw Pact country would be a MASSIVE improvement from OTL.
 
In 1960 the literacy rate was 50% and they had just 16 university graduates out of a population of 15 million.
Whoever is in charge will need significant external help to jumpstart industrialisation.

If the commies get on top and manage to stay in power, only the Soviets can help them at that point in time. But given the circumstances, what could they do?
The Soviets would likely run the Congo by proxy building up a loyal cadre to gradually replace them in TTL. I give that at least a generation. By the end of the Cold War this state could make some waves in Africa, especially with the Soviets falling and the US retreating from African politics.

With their benefactor gone, which also means their sole restraint is gone (and likely opposition starts to rise due to disillusionment with the fall of the USSR, economic issues with the loss of the second world market, and anger over the brutal costs of modernization) so Congo has to redirect all these stresses outward. Much more populous and industrialized than most of Africa, not many states could challenge their forces. Angola is likely their first target (if they aren't already involved in the war between Angola and South Africa). All that oil and it's relative instability (and quasi-pariah status) is too enticing. That expansionism could build Western support for strengthening South Africa and a low level war could erupt in the south of the continent.
 
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The Soviets would likely run the Congo by proxy building up a loyal cadre to gradually replace them in TTL. I give that at least a generation. By the end of the Cold War this state could make some waves in Africa, especially with the Soviets falling and the US retreating from African politics.

Do you see them lasting that long? No earlier intervention to topple that regime?
 
Do you see them lasting that long? No earlier intervention to topple that regime?
A foothold in the heart of Africa with all the raw materials and diamonds that offers (the latter will definitely help economically)? The Soviets are going to prop that regime up and keep it going as long as they are around (like Somalia for the US). Once they are gone, that's when things get shaky.
 
A foothold in the heart of Africa with all the raw materials and diamonds that offers (the latter will definitely help economically)? The Soviets are going to prop that regime up and keep it going as long as they are around (like Somalia for the US). Once they are gone, that's when things get shaky.

Thing is, the Soviet Union was not lacking in natural resources, far from it. And they still fell.

And I'm not sure Somalia is an apt comparison since it has practically nothing. The Americans supported it for a while only because they were fighting Derg-led Ethiopia.

Furthermore I also suspect Belgium and France would also be involved. Hell, Angola had Soviet support and Portugal alone almost won the war.
 
That expansionism could build Western support for strengthening South Africa and a low level war could erupt in the south of the continent.
Would the west even care if its after the cold war
Thing is, the Soviet Union was not lacking in natural resources, far from it. And they still fell.
But soviet oil sales did allowed them to survive longer and Mobutu survived until 1997 only reason he fall was due to invasion
 
only reason he fall was due to invasion
And only reason he survived was because he made everything else secondary to leeching off the nation. If he’d allowed himself to be distracted by nonsense like education, development, infrastructure etc then he wouldn’t have had the loot to buy off the smart guys and the energy to kill the dumb guys.
Someone would have given him the Samuel Doe treatment and taken over as looter-in-chief.
 
And only reason he survived was because he made everything else secondary to leeching off the nation. If he’d allowed himself to be distracted by nonsense like education, development, infrastructure etc then he wouldn’t have had the loot to buy off the smart guys and the energy to kill the dumb guys.
Someone would have given him the Samuel Doe treatment and taken over as looter-in-chief.
You could coup-proof the military
 
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