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How successful could a German campaign in the Middle East be?

Let's say it's an Anglo American Nazi War type situation. By the end of 1943 Nazi Germany has defeated the Soviet Union and occupied all Soviet territory up to the Urals, with the remaining Soviet territory that exists behind east of the Urals forced to give annual reparations to the Reich.

What would they have a better chance at if they wanted to launch a campaign in the Middle East?

Launching it from over the Caucasus mountains or using Turkey as a base for the invasion?

This is of course assuming Turkey allows them to do it.

Anyway once the invasion is launched sometime between 1945 and 1950 into the Middle East, how successful would it be?

And what would their goals be? When do they stop and consolidate their gains?

At Iraq? Iran?

What could they do to ensure their campaign doesn't fall apart and their armies remain well equipped and supplied?

Would they take power for themselves in the nations their troops march into or would they set up satellite governments run by fascists/Nazi sympathizers?

More importantly what would the Allied response be? Specifically the British response?
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