How strong would a Independent Kingdom of Burgundy be if it looked like this?

[Van555]

Inspired by the Divergences Mod for Victoria 2 I was wondering how strong an Independent Burgundy could be If it controlled the territory below?

Let's put the POD in the 1430's for the sake of clarity.

What would be its demographic, industrial and resource potential if it managed to survive into the 19th century?

And could it survive the age of nationalism?
Would it be catholic or Protestant?

Any help would be appreciated!

 

[wietze]

thinking it would be protestant, considering that intially a large part of the southern netherlands also became protestant (but were conquered & converted back).

here the 15th century burgundy

if see correctly, the rhine is the southern border to the east on your map?


if otl economic development also takes place, it will be highly powerful, there is enough coal available for a industrial revolution, lots of strong trading & producing areas like north/south-holland, flanders.
if burgundy has this size in the 19th century, it must have beaten france into submission, because there would be continuous conflicts with france.

 

[LSCatilina]

Assuming it would be created, and survive after being proclaimed, it would be hard to be maintained afterwards.
Remember that we're talking of a personal collection of demesne, often quite rebellious, with different origins, interests and backgrounds.

It won't exactly be a "warlord state", but nevertheless a structure that lives thanks to an individual or at least quite nwarrow project.
Burgundy was an important actor of western Europe mostly thanks to two factors.

1) Weakening of Valois authority during HYW, allowing the Valois-Burgundy to set up a political faction in the kingdom ("Bourguignons" weren't an independentist faction, but more close of a political "party") as Charles of Navarre managed to influence kingdom's social and political movement during Charles V's regency.

With the re-strenghening of Valois authority, their influence and therefore their support in France would be quite limited, and even more so if they decide to sever all ties. Eventually, they'll loose their allies there if they simply decide to get out of the game.

2) Weakening of Imperial authority.
Collecting demesnes that they claimed ("rightfully" or not) was possible because the empire couldn't efficiently intervene, and more or less used their ambitions as a "rear support" (without real effect, as Charles of Burgundy never really tried to do his part on that)
Eventually, it allowed Burgundy to expand, but it also expanded the number of their rivals at the same rate (rivality that Valois exploited with much constance).
Would these rivals strengthen themselves (Swiss way) or imperial authority, we'd have a different song to sing.

Furthermore, the politic of territorial expansion was very costly, as the dukes couldn't count too much on local nobility (that they fought sometimes) or urban militias (that acted independently) even if Burgundy forces were important of their own (and critically were one of the most modern of Europe at their time.

Burgundy share some characteristic with "border kingdoms" that popped once and a while in ancient times (as the, older, Kingdom of Burgundy). Skilled leader, opportunistic policies, weak or distracted neighbours.

Too ambitious policies, strengthing of its rivals eventually made the appearance of a true Burgundian state a failure.
It doesn't mean that it wouldn't happen IATL, but it would be hard to maintain and would be eventually be absorbated, or eaten piece by piece.

The only PoDs I can think of that would allow such super-Burgundy you depict on your map (something that even Charles of Burgundy never dreamed of) is a catastrophic failure or collapse of both French, Empire and German states.

 

[wietze]

as to the age of nationalism, this burgundy did exist long enough for a national identity to form, so it could possibly survive.

edit: maybe an even earlier pod, where the treaty of verdun (843AD) and Prüm would produce more lasting results.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Prüm

this burgundia would be a development of that.

 

[Westphalian]

The borders are so clearly from post-1803/1815 that it almost hurts to see them in a PoD-1430-TL.

That conglomerate is clearly very powerful, as it owns or controls:
+ the wealthy Flemish cities like Bruges, Ghent and Antwerp
+ the coal and thus potential heavy industry area of Wallonia, Luxemburg, the Ruhr and the Saar.
+ the iron ore deposits of Lorraine
+ the port cities around the Zuyderzee
+ probably most important of all in pre-industrial times, three of the HRE archbishoprics (Mainz, Köln, Trier), each with one of the seven electoral votes, plus the territory and presumably the electoral vote of the Palatinate.

Yes, extremely powerful. A Dutch Republic on steroids, no, even more than that. A hulked out Netherlands.

 

[LSCatilina]

It's interesting that people seems to think borders that weren't reached even by overly-ambitious Burgundian dukes would hold together up to Industrial Revolution equivalent, aka during four centuries.

Not mentioning that the OTL demesne held mostly by personal ambition and wishful thinking, of course, and was as close of a centralized state than a Lada from a Rolls-Royce.

 

[Van555]

It's interesting that people seems to think borders that weren't reached even by overly-ambitious Burgundian dukes would hold together up to Industrial Revolution equivalent, aka during four centuries.

Not mentioning that the OTL demesne held mostly by personal ambition and wishful thinking, of course, and was as close of a centralized state than a Lada from a Rolls-Royce.

I was just thinking is all ,

I kind of figured it would require rolling 6s for far too long!

Even if I take it back to a Surviving Lotharingia it would probably be to hard to hold geographically.

 

[LSCatilina]

Even if I take it back to a Surviving Lotharingia it would probably be to hard to hold geographically.

Lotharingia didn't survived for good reasons, as being too small for resist neighbouring Carolingians, and right in the middle of their conflicting interests.
It would be like a 10 years child holding a ball, being charged by two quaterbacks.
At the end, it would be less of a kingdom and more of a lasagna.

Now, you can have a surviving independent late medieval Burgundy, with his structural weaknesses (Charles was put down by Swiss, damnit. Granted, their military organisation was clearly superior, but with ressources being compared...Hell!) being integrated.

Eventually, I would rather see a state equivalent to the average HRE state. Aka geographically divided, with Netherlands enjoying a large deal of autonomy and granted the religious conflict still happen, likely divided on this as well.

And such Burgundian state, neighbouring France and maybe not having Spain or Empire at his side to prevent someone pulling a Louis XIV...
Again, it's possible it's survive up to the 19th, but it doesn't start as a clear winner.

 

[Van555]

Lotharingia didn't survived for good reasons, as being too small for resist neighbouring Carolingians, and right in the middle of their conflicting interests.
It would be like a 10 years child holding a ball, being charged by two quaterbacks.
At the end, it would be less of a kingdom and more of a lasagna.

Now, you can have a surviving independent late medieval Burgundy, with his structural weaknesses (Charles was put down by Swiss, damnit. Granted, their military organisation was clearly superior, but with ressources being compared...Hell!) being integrated.

Eventually, I would rather see a state equivalent to the average HRE state. Aka geographically divided, with Netherlands enjoying a large deal of autonomy and granted the religious conflict still happen, likely divided on this as well.

And such Burgundian state, neighbouring France and maybe not having Spain or Empire at his side to prevent someone pulling a Louis XIV...
Again, it's possible it's survive up to the 19th, but it doesn't start as a clear winner.

Your right, It would probably need to be a bit smaller, unless it's able to crush France permanently which would be hard and would probably be kind of squiggly until a mediasation equivalent.

Do that sound right?

 

[LSCatilina]

Your right, It would probably need to be a bit smaller, unless it's able to crush France permanently which would be hard and would probably be kind of squiggly until a mediasation equivalent.

If Burgundians manage to impose themselves in France, then it would eventually mean they took over the kingdom either politically (winning their way trough Armagnacs/Bourguignons war) and/or dynastically (inheriting in case of Valois failure).

Either way, you won't have much impetus creating a Kingdom of Burgundy, seeing they control France.

If it happens in the later wars, in the 1470's...Crushing France permenently may have been quite a bit out their range, giving they didn't managed to crush Swiss.

 

[Van555]

Thinking about it if the House of burgundy manages to hold out like that it seem more plausible that they would want to become kings of france?

Or perhaps focus themselves in lorraine or the Lowlands.

 

[LSCatilina]

Thinking about it if the House of burgundy manages to hold out like that it seem more plausible that they would want to become kings of france?

That's a distinct possibility yes, but not that much easy of its own.

Or perhaps focus themselves in lorraine or the Lowlands.

So, basically the situation depicted above, with Burgundy turning to a HRE state-equivalent? It may have more chance of survival if they didn't turn against all of their neighors. And an earlier unified Lowlands (even if ducal authority isn't going to be unrivaled, to say the least) could be interesting.

 

[Van555]

That's a distinct possibility yes, but not that much easy of its own.


So, basically the situation depicted above, with Burgundy turning to a HRE state-equivalent?

I mean a state controlling the burgundian circle would be possible right?

 

[LSCatilina]

I mean a state controlling the burgundian circle would be possible right?

The entiere? It's possible but as hard than a Kingdom of Burgundy. At this point, it was a really rushing and hoping it could work, and that pissed all the region in quite impressive ways, including the regions that Charles controlled.

Not saying it was the historical equivalent of a "Kick me!" panel, but...

What would be possible, by a cautious policy (basically a more modern policy and less dreams of idealized feudalism) aka not talking on every neighbour they had, being more content of what they had depsite not being territorially connected? Yes.

You would end with a Franco-German state, with a ducal authority that could set up a more bureaucratic administration but whom authority would be challenged, critically in Lowlands, by urban autonomies that they would have to compromise with.

And praying really really hard for that religious crisis doesn't happen as OTL, for skilled dukes, for comprehensive emperors, and for France being too busy in Italy or elsewhere to not thinking about pulling a Louis XIV on them.

 

[Van555]

The entiere? It's possible but as hard than a Kingdom of Burgundy. At this point, it was a really rushing and hoping it could work, and that pissed all the region in quite impressive ways, including the regions that Charles controlled.

Not saying it was the historical equivalent of a "Kick me!" panel, but...

What would be possible, by a cautious policy (basically a more modern policy and less dreams of idealized feudalism) aka not talking on every neighbour they had, being more content of what they had depsite not being territorially connected? Yes.

You would end with a Franco-German state, with a ducal authority that could set up a more bureaucratic administration but whom authority would be challenged, critically in Lowlands, by urban autonomies that they would have to compromise with.

And praying really really hard for that religious crisis doesn't happen as OTL, for skilled dukes, for comprehensive emperors, and for France being too busy in Italy or elsewhere to not thinking about pulling a Louis XIV on them.

Hmm You know what I kind of want to flesh out this idea...

I'll start a new thread.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Thinking about it if the House of burgundy manages to hold out like that it seem more plausible that they would want to become kings of france?

Or perhaps focus themselves in lorraine or the Lowlands.

If the House of Valois-Burgundy survives at all...they will be kings of France itself as they are the most senior Cadet line of House Valois (provided of course the line is unbroken in the male line). So when that line becomes extinct in the male line, they will inherit, not house Bourbon. Obviously then, the main line of Valois also has to survive as well.

 

[Van555]

If the House of Valois-Burgundy survives at all...they will be kings of France itself as they are the most senior Cadet line of House Valois. So when that line becomes extinct in the male line, they will inherit, not house Bourbon. Obviously then, the main line of Valois also has to survive as well.

Oh shoot your right! hmm

They would probably have to split those thrones though.

 

[LSCatilina]

They would probably have to split those thrones though.

Quoting myself from some post above

Either way, you won't have much impetus creating a Kingdom of Burgundy, seeing they control France.
And HRemperors would certainly *not* give a royal crown to anyone going to inherit France.

For spltting thrones, as Capetians didn't for Navarre up to different succession laws striked, and that Plantagenet/Lancaster didn't for their french claims, I don't see why it would happen there.

 

[Van555]

Quoting myself from some post above

Either way, you won't have much impetus creating a Kingdom of Burgundy, seeing they control France.

Fair what title would a lord who controlled the 17 provinces and the the french country use then?

I'm assuming they stay as a duke here.

 

[Van555]

Quoting myself from some post above

Either way, you won't have much impetus creating a Kingdom of Burgundy, seeing they control France.
And HRemperors would certainly *not* give a royal crown to anyone going to inherit France.

For spltting thrones, as Capetians didn't for Navarre up to different succession laws striked, and that Plantagenet/Lancaster didn't for their french claims, I don't see why it would happen there.

True but controlling Burgundian lands and france would be a bit much no?