How strong Imperial japan would be today?

Some time ago I was playing total realism project and I found this:

pCWKKyb.png


If Japan had twice as much births than american, in a hipotetical scenario that butterflies the pacific war for any cause and effect, how strong a imperial japan holding Korea and having Manchuria as it puppet state would be today?
 
But even without Pacific War, there is a huge lot of other wars: Japan has been trying to take down the whole of China since thirties, and taking on European colonies in the region too. Even without America Japan is fucked. If you make Japan somehow win, add all of East Asia together, and move Japanese people from their crowded islands somewhere like Western China or Himalayas. They would have insane production, if they industrialize their new territories as effectively as they industrialized their own country. But Japan winning against everyone is borderline ASB imo. Even if they win, somehow, there will be lots of rebellions and it will be hard to hold all of that territory, and then they start killing people, et cetera. Maybe they can pacify it after a few decades, but really it looks less stable than Europe after a Nazi victory.

Remove Japanese expansion, remove the need for more soldiers and people. But if we imagine that Japanese never genocided or conquered after taking Manchuria, just add the populations of Manchuria (North East China), Korea and Japan together, add a few millions to few tens of millions of extra population (depending on how extensive this population raising would be and when would they stop it if they aren't expanding), and raise the GDP of Manchuria to match the other regions.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Some time ago I was playing total realism project and I found this:


If Japan had twice as much births than american, in a hipotetical scenario that butterflies the pacific war for any cause and effect, how strong a imperial japan holding Korea and having Manchuria as it puppet state would be today?
Japan's fertility rate would have dropped over time because of the demographic transition, countries with higher gdp per capita see their birthrates drop. The high fertility rate of the 1930s would not last.
 

RousseauX

Donor
But even without Pacific War, there is a huge lot of other wars: Japan has been trying to take down the whole of China since thirties, and taking on European colonies in the region too. Even without America Japan is fucked. If you make Japan somehow win, add all of East Asia together, and move Japanese people from their crowded islands somewhere like Western China or Himalayas. They would have insane production, if they industrialize their new territories as effectively as they industrialized their own country. But Japan winning against everyone is borderline ASB imo. Even if they win, somehow, there will be lots of rebellions and it will be hard to hold all of that territory, and then they start killing people, et cetera. Maybe they can pacify it after a few decades, but really it looks less stable than Europe after a Nazi victory.

Remove Japanese expansion, remove the need for more soldiers and people. But if we imagine that Japanese never genocided or conquered after taking Manchuria, just add the populations of Manchuria (North East China), Korea and Japan together, add a few millions to few tens of millions of extra population (depending on how extensive this population raising would be and when would they stop it if they aren't expanding), and raise the GDP of Manchuria to match the other regions.
Manchuria is not tenable on the long run unless Japan can eliminate any central government in China proper
 
But even without Pacific War, there is a huge lot of other wars: Japan has been trying to take down the whole of China since thirties, and taking on European colonies in the region too. Even without America Japan is fucked. If you make Japan somehow win, add all of East Asia together, and move Japanese people from their crowded islands somewhere like Western China or Himalayas. They would have insane production, if they industrialize their new territories as effectively as they industrialized their own country. But Japan winning against everyone is borderline ASB imo. Even if they win, somehow, there will be lots of rebellions and it will be hard to hold all of that territory, and then they start killing people, et cetera. Maybe they can pacify it after a few decades, but really it looks less stable than Europe after a Nazi victory.

Remove Japanese expansion, remove the need for more soldiers and people. But if we imagine that Japanese never genocided or conquered after taking Manchuria, just add the populations of Manchuria (North East China), Korea and Japan together, add a few millions to few tens of millions of extra population (depending on how extensive this population raising would be and when would they stop it if they aren't expanding), and raise the GDP of Manchuria to match the other regions.

just somehow stop the japanese invasion of China
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
just somehow stop the japanese invasion of China

That's a pretty significant change in Japan overall. Japanese foreign policy was Chinese-focused in significant ways since the late 19th century and the first Sino-Japanese War. The expansion was slow but definite: 1895, 1905, 1910, 1931...
 
That's a pretty significant change in Japan overall. Japanese foreign policy was Chinese-focused in significant ways since the late 19th century and the first Sino-Japanese War. The expansion was slow but definite: 1895, 1905, 1910, 1931...

The objective is to stop the japanese expansion after 1931, when they already installed PuYi in Manchuria, there is any way to do that?
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
The objective is to stop the japanese expansion after 1931, when they already installed PuYi in Manchuria, there is any way to do that?

You want to stop Japanese expansionism in China but keep Manchuria as a Japanese puppet state and prevent a general Pacific War? I genuinely don't see a way that could happen. I'll leave that to someone more imaginative than I.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The objective is to stop the japanese expansion after 1931, when they already installed PuYi in Manchuria, there is any way to do that?
Yeah, but they would lose Manchuria though because China proper on its own will get a central government which can build a military which can beat Japan's in a land war given a 15-25 years
 
The objective is to stop the japanese expansion after 1931, when they already installed PuYi in Manchuria, there is any way to do that?

As others said, ignore China, and you get Chinese people retaking Manchuria and probably Korea too. Sooner or later.
 
Yea, I think the best midway to get a somewhat big Japan to stop at Taiwan. If they lose in the Russo-Japanese War, it's likely all attempts to use force by the militarists to attain the same status as Europeans would be discredited in favour of economic progress. By Korea, Japan's militarism was already on the upswing, and it's not going to stop until they hit a brick wall. The US proved to be that brick wall, but by then, it was way too late.
 
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