How Stalin defeats Hitler in 1940

Do not invade Finland instead use the time from when the M-R pact is signed and until Germany invades France to make a thorough plan and thorough preparations for capturing the Romanian oilfields. That operation is to start one week after Germany invades France.



For anyone who does not know about the importance of Romanian oil, here are Hitlers own words, recorded by the Finns when Hitler went to Finland in 1942:



“I always feared - that Russia suddenly would attack Romania in the late fall - and occupy the petroleum wells, and we would have not been ready in the late fall of 1940. If Russia indeed had taken Romanian petroleum wells, than Germany would have been lost. It would have required - just 60 Russian divisions to handle that matter.

In Romania we had of course - at that time - no major units. The Romanian government had turned to us only recently - and what we did have there was laughable. They only had to occupy the petroleum wells. Of course, with our weapons I could not start a, war in September or October. That was out of the question. Naturally, the transfer to the east wasn't that far advanced yet. Of course, the units first had to reconsolidate in the west. First the armaments had to be taken care of because we too had - yes, we also had losses in our campaign in the west. It would have been impossible to attack - before the spring of 19, 41. And if the Russians at that time - in the fall of 1940 - had occupied Romania - taken the petroleum wells, then we would have been, helpless in 1941.

Another Voice In Background: Without petroleum...

Hitler: (Interrupting) We had huge German production: however, the demands of the air force, our Panzer divisions - they are really huge. It is level of consumption that surpasses the imagination. And without the addition of four to five million tons of Romanian petroleum, we could not have fought the war - and would have had to let it be - and that was my big worry. ”



End of the quote



These things should also be done when one invade Romania:



Stop all exports to Germany when the invasion of Romania starts.

Contact Germany and say that the exports can restart but that first Germany has to pay for what has already been delivered from the USSR, Germany was lagging in payment.

If the Germans pay what they owe, say that the Germans must pay in advance for the next set of exports. If the Germans pay, keep the money and send nothing. Thereby increasing the strain on the German economy.

The seizing of the Romanian oil wells should create an economic collapse in Germany, the cancellation of the grain exports from the USSR should create huge food shortages.

And by being paid in advance by the Germans for things that will not be supplied, that will crate even more pressure on an already damaged economy.
 
Relying on a Hitler quote for logistics or economics is a tenuous and risky experiment.

I think you’re right though.

But Soviet adventurism was scalded when it grabbed Poland’s handle off the stove. It is hard to overcome that learning experience. The idea that the Soviet Union should wait for another revolutionary economic crisis after a slow production war is more cogent. What madman would attack France UK and USSR?
 
That might risk Germany wrangling a peace in the West, to deal with the Soviets. The Soviets here attacked Poland as well. And then seized Romania, which could allow them to advance further into the Balkans, and towards Istanbul. And the Soviets aggression could allow Germany to put the rest of the Balkans in their sphere. Hungary is likely also seizing border regions of Romania if the Soviets invade.
 
What about attacking Germany itself, when it was fully preoccupied in the west? Shirer wrote that if Stalin had attacked in June 1940, he could've gotten as far as Berlin before any effective resistance was organized.
 
What about attacking Germany itself, when it was fully preoccupied in the west? Shirer wrote that if Stalin had attacked in June 1940, he could've gotten as far as Berlin before any effective resistance was organized.

There were 20+ German ''divisions' in Poland and E Prussia. The more important factor is the ability of the USSR to support 60, or even 30 divisions in the offence to Warsaw or beyond. The railways were thin, and the automotive roads non existant.

A second factor would be the condition of the ground forces. Consisting of slightly over 100 division in Oct 1939 those had been subject to splitting off cadres to form up to 180 new infantry division by mid 1941. How many of the original 60 infantry divisions were combat capable in May 1940. If Merekovs account is accurate the answer might be a dozen cavalry and infantry divisions on the Western frontier.
 
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There were 20+ German ''divisions' in Poland and E Prussia. The more important factor is the ability of the USSR to support 60, or even 30 divisions in the offence to Warsaw or beyond. The railways were thinking, and the automotive roads non existant.

A second factor would be the condition of the ground forces. Consisting of slightly over 100 division in Oct 1939 those had been subject to splitting off cadres to form up to 180 new infantry division by mid 1941. How many of the original 60 infantry divisions were combat capable in May 1940. If Merekovs account is accurate the answer might be a dozen cavalry and infantry divisions on the Western frontier.

Even a total Soviet clusterfuck style invasion a la Winter War against Germany would have most probably meant a better outcome for Soviet Union than OTL 1941 Barbarossa, as Soviets would have been able to learn their lessons inside Poland rather than at gates of Moscow and Stalingrad. Meanwhile, France would have probably fought on despite Sickle Cut, and Germans would have to see how well they could fight against Soviet Union without Soviet raw materials and one year to refurbish their forces.
 
Relying on a Hitler quote for logistics or economics is a tenuous and risky experiment.

I think you’re right though.

But Soviet adventurism was scalded when it grabbed Poland’s handle off the stove. It is hard to overcome that learning experience. The idea that the Soviet Union should wait for another revolutionary economic crisis after a slow production war is more cogent. What madman would attack France UK and USSR?

Using Hitlers own words is actually the ONLY way short of having another person read 100s of books on the subject

It is a miracle that the recording exists, you can actually listen to it on youtube.

BECAUSE without there would be some guy claiming that Germanys own synthetic production can cover the loss of Romanian oil AND the same guy would then say that the Germans could within a few days or weeks transfer the troops from France into Romania.

No that is wrong, the synthetic oil production in no way shape or form can cover that, HOWEVER without Hitler actually saying it this hypothetical guy would not believe it. The same goes for the transfer of troops, one can not simply transfer the EQUIPMENT needed so fast, and set up the logistics need.

BUT!

Without the words coming directly from Hitler lots and lots of little German ww2 fanboys would NEVER understand it.

So THEREFORE using Hitlers exact own words is the ONLY way to make the argument for anyone who does no want to sit down and read about oil production and oil consumption of Romania and the German industry and military. AND also read about how fast one can transfer military equipment and set up logistics for said equipment.



That might risk Germany wrangling a peace in the West, to deal with the Soviets. The Soviets here attacked Poland as well. And then seized Romania, which could allow them to advance further into the Balkans, and towards Istanbul. And the Soviets aggression could allow Germany to put the rest of the Balkans in their sphere. Hungary is likely also seizing border regions of Romania if the Soviets invade.

You do not understand man, here is the main point

THIS CREATES AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE INSIDE GERMANY

And by cutting off Soviet exports, and most importantly the GRAIN, then Germany will need to begin executing all "undesirables" much much faster which includes huge parts of the population in Poland, and Germany would need to down size its military because those men would have been needed in the fields.

THEN ANOTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THAT WITHOUT FRENCH GOLD THE GERMAN ECONOMY COLLAPSES.

The German nazi economy was completely dependent on loans, and then on captured gold of the conquered nations. For example if Germany had not attacked Poland then about 6 weeks after the German economy would have collapsed because the Germans needed the Polish gold. This is more remarkable because in March of 1939, the same year as the invasion of Poland, the Germans got the Czechoslovakian gold (21.3 metric tonnes) which the nazis spent in 6 months, it was almost all gone in 6 months. Without the French gold the German economy can not stand.

These points is what you are not seeing, there would be no Germany, there would be a collapsed and starving nation.



What about attacking Germany itself, when it was fully preoccupied in the west? Shirer wrote that if Stalin had attacked in June 1940, he could've gotten as far as Berlin before any effective resistance was organized.

Why take any unnecessary risk?

Seizing the Romanian oil fields, will give ALMOST the same result as a military defeat over Germany. Why take the risk. Maybe the USSR can attack maybe not, but if the USSR can take or destroy the Romanian oil fields AND cuts of its exports to Germany then Germany will collapse. And in addition to all of that if the Soviets can get the Germans to pay in advance for goods that will never be transferred that is just icing on the cake.


Would Britain love Soviets getting half of Europe?

In this scenario Stalin only attacks Romania, and depending on what happens later either attacks the government or pulls back. IF Stalin is able to knock out the government then the USSR can either annex the land or install a puppet government, all depending on how well they negotiate with the French and British, because Stalin will be able to say, hey we saved your asses without the attack on the Romanian oil fields Germany would have run over France, so Romania now belongs the USSR.

In this scenario I purpose that the USSR only attacks Romania nothing else.



No argument there. The ability of the Soviet ground forces the capture Warsaw, or advance past it in mid 1940 is the kicker.


You are responding to another person here, but I am going to jump in. Even if somehow the whole Red Army messes up then the air force can bomb the Romanian Oil wells to such a degree that it would require years to rebuild. Rebuilding such infrastructure can not be done in months, and the effect is the same to Germany = total collapse. You are talking about an invasion of Germany instead of Romania, however the main German weakens in any scenario is not Germany itself but the Romanian oil fields, so even if one attacks Germany, which I do not suggest, then taking out the Romanian oil fields is still the primary objective, even if one only uses the air force to do wreck but not seize the oil wells.

 
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Okay, let's calm it down a notch. No need for BIG BOLD words which in internet usage is often akin to shouting
 

nbcman

Donor
Stalin wanted the West and the Nazis to weaken themselves before he moved years later when the Soviet military was more capable. He wasn’t going to take a chance like attacking Germany or Romania in 1940. It could lead to his nightmare scenario of the majority of the world uniting against them.
 
Stalin wanted the West and the Nazis to weaken themselves before he moved years later when the Soviet military was more capable. He wasn’t going to take a chance like attacking Germany or Romania in 1940. It could lead to his nightmare scenario of the majority of the world uniting against them.

Yes those are the things he wanted, that is completely accurate.

However this is an alternative suggestion that all the facts and even Hitler himself point out would have wrecked Germany.

About international opinion, once Germany has begun its invasion of France, then the USSR can with a bit of messaging make it so that they are saving the world, because without the Romanian oil the German war machine will suffer greatly. In the real timeline on June the 20th Stalin claims 2 territories in Romania anyway, this just changes the dates and the goals a bit, AND no invasion of Finland. No invasion of Finland = the USSR does not lose international support for that invasion because it never happened.
 

nbcman

Donor
Yes those are the things he wanted, that is completely accurate.

However this is an alternative suggestion that all the facts and even Hitler himself point out would have wrecked Germany.

About international opinion, once Germany has begun its invasion of France, then the USSR can with a bit of messaging make it so that they are saving the world, because without the Romanian oil the German war machine will suffer greatly. In the real timeline on June the 20th Stalin claims 2 territories in Romania anyway, this just changes the dates and the goals a bit, AND no invasion of Finland. No invasion of Finland = the USSR does not lose international support for that invasion because it never happened.
The world’s opinion of the Soviets was wrecked after they split Poland with the Nazis plus they are in the process of occupying the Baltic countries. Sorry no international support is likely if the Soviets attack Romania.
 
@Open Green Fields

The Polish gold that the Nazis didn't capture. That gold that they needed or were about to collapse 'in six weeks' according to your claims.

From Hitler's Gold: the Story of the Nazi War Loot, by Arthur L. Smith, Jr.:

Chronologically, Poland was Hitler's next victim and by rights should have yielded up some more gold, but the German occupiers found the Bank of Poland almost empty. As the German military forces threatened Warsaw, the chief personnel of the Bank of Poland (Bank Polski) had abandoned the city taking with them some $64 million worth of the Polish gold reserve. Travelling by train and truck south and east through Rumania, Turkey and Lebanon, the Polish ban staff finally arrived in France in late October 1939, where they were granted office space and storage vaults in the Bank of France in Paris and here continued to conduct business, such as it was.
After the German invasion of the Low Countries and france began in May of 1940, however, the Polish government in exile informed the French government that it intended to transport their gold reserve to Canada and the United States. The Polish note, dated May 22d, resulted in a verbal agreement between the Bank of Poland and the Bank of France whereby the French Admiralty was to be entrusted to convey the gold on a French warship to the United States. One of the Polish Bank directors, Stefan Michaslki, accompanied the gold when it was put aboard the French cruiser Victor Schoelcher in the harbour of Lorient. The ship's destination was Martinique, but with the French collapse imminent the orders were changed at the last minute to the French West African port of Dakar.
[...]
In the meantime, the Germans found that while the Polish gold still appeared elusive -in fact, they were not even sure yet where it was- they had secured the gold reserves of the Bank of Danzing. In August 1939 the Bank of Danzing had about $4,000,000 worth of gold which Poland considered to be theirs, for the return of which Poland would make a postwar claim.

And the section you quoted, was about the Nazis getting peace in the West, to fend off the Soviets. Which would remove the resource pressures. The Finances don't matter since they are still at war, and imports could be paid for with the money they would demand off France.
 
The world’s opinion of the Soviets was wrecked after they split Poland with the Nazis plus they are in the process of occupying the Baltic countries. Sorry no international support is likely if the Soviets attack Romania.

No that is not completely accurate, many did not feel like that, because those lands had belonged to Imperial Russia, and the USSR had lost those lands in the early 1920s.

If during the invasion of France the USSR is able to cause serious harm to Germany, people will be more generous towards the USSR

And in the original timeline the USSR took 2 pieces from Romania without the whole world declaring war on the USSR. In this scenario they either capture or wreck the oil fields.

But lets play it even safer shall we, the USSR ONLY uses the air force to bomb the Romanian oil fields, no invasion at all, the result is the same.

Once GB/Fr start getting into real trouble in BoF even the Devil will start looking quite attractive as an ally.... just as OTL.

Yes that is my reasoning as well.

@Open Green Fields

The Polish gold that the Nazis didn't capture. That gold that they needed or were about to collapse 'in six weeks' according to your claims.

From Hitler's Gold: the Story of the Nazi War Loot, by Arthur L. Smith, Jr.:



And the section you quoted, was about the Nazis getting peace in the West, to fend off the Soviets. Which would remove the resource pressures. The Finances don't matter since they are still at war, and imports could be paid for with the money they would demand off France.

Regarding the Poles I should have used the words gold, loot, labour, production and grain. But interesting detail about the gold, I wrongly assumed that the nazis got an amount of gold from the Poles, perhaps they did not.

Regarding the next part

Finances do indeed matter, the nazi economy was initially dependent on loans and then war loot, so with decrease in that the economy suffers.

That the nazis would immediately sue for peace with France when the USSR attacks the Romanian oil fields is highly unlikely, but even if the nazis did so, and even if the allies accepted,that does not change the math. Without the Romanian oil the nazi industry can not continue, neither can the air force or the mechanized parts of the army.
Without the Soviet grain the nazis must decrease the "undesirable" population faster and dismiss people from the military to go work on farms.
Without Soviets exports of resources the nazi industry will suffer as it did in the original timeline but now much faster, running out of rubber and manganese much earlier, and of course the oil
 
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