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Reading discussions and TLs about victorious Napoleon, I have noticed that there often seems to exists this idea of relatively stable European/French political system following Napoleon's victory. It's not uncommon to see the French Empire continue to dominate Europe and even rise to the status of superpower later, even continuing until the 21st century. In some ways, the imagined history of Europe and France seems often almost stagnant compared what we actually experienced. However, looking back at OTL history, both France and Europe in general, there were huge changes, even just in France during the 19th century. This leads me to following questions I have been pondering lately:

Firstly, how likely is that the French Empire would avoid upheavels in any way comparable to those that its OTL counterpart did? Simply put, how likely is it that the French Empire would still exist in 2017, instead of some alternative Third French Republic?

Secondly, how likely it is that France would be still a leading power in Europe or the world by the 21st century? OTL history did show fluctuations in nations' fortunes during last centuries. Would France's territorial extent still be similar to that it had in 1812, or is it possible it could lose some of it?

(Although questions I have put here are somewhat detailed, they are meant more as food for thought for the wider general discussion about the future of Napoleonic system.)
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