If Hitler didn’t declare war on the US in the winter of 1941 and made it his goal to avoid conflict with America how long would it have been until the US declared war on Germany and under what circumstances?
This. But if Hitler persisted in not declaring war, it might take awhile before the US did. Although I doubt it would take longer than three months, at most within a year there'd be some incident which led to a declaration of war from the US. In the meantime though for all practical means they'd already be at war. Main difference to OTL would be no operation drumroll.The US aid to Britain would have become so blatant and so aggressive it would have been only a matter of weeks or a month or two that Hitler would have been forced to declare war. Since the US would have been going into full mobilization mode anyway, the delay in declaring war would not have really mattered.
This. But if Hitler persisted in not declaring war, it might take awhile before the US did. Although I doubt it would take longer than three months, at most within a year there'd be some incident which led to a declaration of war from the US. In the meantime though for all practical means they'd already be at war. Main difference to OTL would be no operation drumroll.
It won't take that long before a U-boat sinks a major US-ship, or there are so many smaller US-ships sunk to deny they're at war.I suspect a bit longer.
In the event Hitler didn’t Congress and the WH would likely wait until the Japanese Navy had its threat to potentially deal another body blow to the US Navy removed so the Battle of Midway.
It won't take that long before a U-boat sinks a major US-ship, or there are so many smaller US-ships sunk to deny they're at war.
With Japan and Germany allies and Japan attacking British and French and Dutch possessions in the Far East, FDR would have had no trouble convincing the American people and Congress that the US was already at war with Germany. A declaration of war would just be a formality. After Pearl Harbor there is no way the US is staying neutral with Germany.If Germany distanced itself away from the Japanese and disavowed them, there would be little US public support for a declaration of war. Ultimately it would make Roosevelt the aggressor, and it's highly unlikely congress would have agreed. Without the US, Germany probably either wins or manages to obtain a conditional peace agreement.
With Japan and Germany allies and Japan attacking British and French and Dutch possessions in the Far East, FDR would have had no trouble convincing the American people and Congress that the US was already at war with Germany. A declaration of war would just be a formality. After Pearl Harbor there is no way the US is staying neutral with Germany.
Let me recycle an old post of mine once again:
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Consider FDR's radio address to the nation on December 9:
The course that Japan has followed for the past 10 years in Asia has paralleled the course of Hitler and Mussolini in Europe and Africa. Today, it has become far more than a parallel. It is collaboration so well calculated that all the continents of the world, and all the oceans, are now considered by the Axis strategists as one gigantic battlefield.
In 1931, Japan invaded Manchukuo without warning.
In 1935, Italy invaded Ethiopia without warning.
In 1938, Hitler occupied Austria without warning.
In 1939, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia without warning.
Later in 1939, Hitler invaded Poland without warning.
In 1940, Hitler invaded Norway, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, and Luxembourg without warning.
In 1940, Italy attacked France and later Greece without warning.
In 1941, the Axis Powers attacked Jugoslavia and Greece and they dominated the Balkans without warning.
In 1941, Hitler invaded Russia without warning.
And now Japan has attacked Malaya and Thailand and the United States without warning.
It is all of one pattern...
Your Government knows that for weeks Germany has been telling Japan that if Japan did not attack the United States, Japan would not share in dividing the spoils with Germany when peace came. She was promised by Germany that if she came in she would receive the complete and perpetual control of the whole of the Pacific area and that means not only the Far East, not only all of the islands in the Pacific, but also a stranglehold on the west coast of North, Central, and South America.
We also know that Germany and Japan are conducting their military and naval operations in accordance with a joint plan. That plan considers all peoples and nations which are not helping the Axis Powers as common enemies of each and every one of the Axis Powers.
That is their simple and obvious grand strategy. That is why the American people must realize that it can be matched only with similar grand strategy. We must realize, for example, that Japanese successes against the United States in the Pacific are helpful to German operations in Libya; that any German success against the Caucasus is inevitably an assistance to Japan in her operations against the Dutch East Indies; that a German attack against Algiers or Morocco opens the way to a German attack against South America.
On the other side of the picture we must learn to know that guerrilla warfare against the Germans in Serbia helps us; that a successful Russian offensive against the Germans helps us; and that British successes on land or sea in any part of the world strengthen our hands.
Remember always that Germany and Italy, regardless of any formal declaration of war, consider themselves at war with the United States at this moment just as much as they consider themselves at war with Britain and Russia. And Germany puts all the other republics of the Americas into the category of enemies. The people of the hemisphere can be honored by that.
http://avalon.law.yale.edu/wwii/dec06.asp
This sounds like a rehearsal for a proposal to declare war on Germany--and it is possible that if FDR did not yet ask for a declaration at that time, it may have been because he was convinced from intelligence sources and decrypts that Germany would soon declare war on the US.
How hard a time would FDR have had in getting a declaration of war through Congress? I think a Gallup poll figure from December 10, 1941 should settle that: "Should President Roosevelt have asked Congress to declare war on Germany, as well as on Japan?": yes — 90%, no — 7%." (see question 17 below)
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If Germany distanced itself away from the Japanese and disavowed them, there would be little US public support for a declaration of war. Ultimately it would make Roosevelt the aggressor, and it's highly unlikely congress would have agreed. Without the US, Germany probably either wins or manages to obtain a conditional peace agreement.
The simple request is if you don't agree with war simply allow our convoys of equipment to pass unmolested to fight Japan.......his idea that Germany can be like "we condemn the actions of Japan" And then the US Congress goes
That flat ignores the reality of the time for Germany and the US. The US was already effectively at war in the Atlantic supplying the British with millions of dollars worth of war material, US public opinion had turned against isolation and propaganda had painted the Germans and Japanese as one in the same. The Axis had already struck the first blow, US entry against Germany was inevitable. The US isn't stupid and Germany isn't going to throw one of their only allies under the bus to try and alleviate a situation they know is going to happen anyway (hence you know, the declaration of war otl). This idea that Germany can be like "we condemn the actions of Japan" And then the US Congress goes "duh oh owkay this Hitler guy aint so bad" is really silly...
Not really, isolationism was still relatively strong. It was Pearl Harbour that decisively turned it against the Axis. If Hitler either didn't ally with with the Japanese originally, or completely declared war on him he may have prevented American intervention. Considering that Japan was literally doing nothing for the German war effort, I don't see why it would be that insane. Obviously OTL Hitler was not that good of a strategist, but what if he was?