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With a bit more luck and competence across the board how much smaller could the Pacific war be made?
If PH had stood to with the sinking of the midget sub before 7am.
Fighters scrambled at the radar warning.
Macarthur attacks with his airforce as soon as he is in the loop.
Op Matador has a measure of success.
PoW & Repulse don't go north and get sunk.
Wake Is is relieved and holds.
Malaya is defended better, and for long enough for the Japanese campaign to stall.
Force Z/ABDA naval forces win a surface naval battle and perhaps even stop a landing somewhere in the DEI.
None of these things are beyond the bounds of practicality, but what would be their cumulative result? Firstly I'd imagine the Solomons campaign would be abandoned, so no Guadalcanal. Secondly I'd imagine Nagumos aircraft losses would force him to send some of his carriers home eas early as post PH.