On possibility for a smaller but recognizable Canada.
1. Shift in sentiments (nearly but not completely ASB) causes Continental Congress to follow Ben Franklin's ideas for treating Indians on more equal footing. Irroquois send representatives to the CC and join the rebellion.
2. Minor shifts here and there, but final peace leades to Upper Canada & Nova Scotia being granted independence - join the new born USA.
3. Nothing much changes for some time - Canada occupies present Labrador, Newfoundland, Quebec, regions of Hudson's bay. Theoretical claims extend out to Pacific, but no Great Lakes means limited access westward.
4. During the Napoleonic wars, when Napoleon sells Luisiana to the USA to raise cash, UK sees reason to fear errant colonies becoming too powerful and too allied to France. To offset this, they sell their claims to the Oregon Territory and parts of Rupert's Land to Russia for cash & various other considerations.
5. Timeline progresses
6. 1800's instead of buying Alaska, the American administration buys Russian claims the Oregon Territory up to the OTL US-CAN border.
7. Timeline progresses
8. US civil war (if not butterflied away) deserters and those displaced by war filter west and north - Canada undergoes population boom. Canadian-American Settlers begin to expand earlier fishing/fur-trapping/trading settlements on the west side of the Hudson Bay. A bit of 'wild west' feel takes over.
9. Timeline progresses
10. 1880's Hudson Bay colony recognized as separate entity by Empire- used as a bit of a dumping ground for debtors/scofflaws/troublemakers too bothersome for Canada proper, but not worth the expense of transportation to Australia.
11. Timeline progresses
12. Russian revolutions & Civil War - White Russians begin fleeing to the Pacific NW coast, while selling more and more of the mountains to Americans & English for arms & supplies to continue their increasingly hopeless fight.
13. Bolshevik victory in civil war - The Russian Empire Alaskan Province (covers OTL Alaska, parts of Yukon, Victoria Island, and the NW quarter of OTL british Columbia). is a defensive reactionary authoritarian monarchy in N America (think Francoist Spain, but with Imperial regalia, colder weather, and no local civil war).
14. Timeline progresses
15. Present day. North America includes five countries:
1. Canada - Sometimes refered to as the Disney version of Europe - Canada is a diverse nation (including many refugees from wars around the world) which occupies the Labrador peninsula between Hudson Bay and St Lawrence River - and extends over the offshore islands to Greenland. Wealthly, moderately capitalist, generally centrist, with a slight left tilt towards politics(those of a more rightward bent tend to relocate over time west or south). Proud supporters and members of the Commonwealth. Official Languages - English and French, Official Religions Anglican and Catholic, Member of Norad and NATO, staunch ally of UK and (by default, if not choice) US. Primary Exports - Capital Goods, Minerals, Liquor, Agricultural products, Aeronautical goods, Automotive parts. Canada is the first or second NA nation in terms of per capita income (depending on how the numbers are cut) and prides itself on maintaining an enlightened social standard (otl - 'european lifestyle'). Life is a tad slower here then elsewhere on the continent, but arguably more comfortable and secure.
2. Imperial Russian Republic (the monarchy fell in during WW2 when IR briefly sided with IJ hoping to reclaim Russian Far East in return - conspiracy theories abound, but general opinion accepts that a combination of Allied covert action and the threat of land war of with their NA neighbors sparked the coup) - (covers OTL Alaska, Rockies west of the Fall Line down to 54th parallel, and offshore Islands down to Victoria(?) Island off Vancouver, Columbia. Retains theoretical claims to Russia. Official religion - Russian Orthodox, Official Languages - Russian & English. Foreign policy - part of Norad, de facto neutral. Primary Exports - Oil, Salmon, Natural Gas, Timber, Minerals, Liquor.
The end of the Cold War has brought about significant changes in IRR life - drastic military cutbacks, increased trade with former communist world, relaxation or elimination of many of the controls on speech and association that were put in after the Bolshevik Revolution on the mainland. Not the wealthiest, most populous, or largest NA country - but IRR does boast the highest growth rate and most wide-open prospects for growth.
3. Mexico - largely as per OTL - somewhat more investment during 1800s due to more interested parties led to a slightly higher standard of living, often viewed (unfairly) as largely a retirement community for Nortenos (Americans, Canadians, Imperials (Russians), Vindals/Hudsonites. Primary exports - Oil, industrial parts, textiles, agricultural goods
4. USA (generally OTL, slightly larger in OTL lower 48, no Alaska, slightly more centrist).
5. Vindalia (former Hudson Bay Colony - covers OTL Canada north of the 54th parallel north, East of the Rockies fall line, west of the Hudson Bay). official languages - English, Nunavut, Official Religion - N/A, Republic, capitalist, generally freer/ less traditional than Canada proper (think Australia in the northern forests).
Discussions on potential accessions to Canada or USA were raised and tabled various times during the 20th century. Name of Vindalia was adopted in 1952 referendum which also instituted a republic, but retained Commonwealth ties. Member of Norad, de facto neutral. Courted with varying degrees of profligacy by Canada, US, Imperial Russia, UK. Primary Exports - Oil, Timber, Game, Furs, Minerals, Grains. Vindalia is the smallest (in population terms) of the North American nations, but arguably the freest, and has notably high per capita incomes.