How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

[Sigma7]

Forget that lot. What's really needed is a 1,000 bomber raid on Bitburg. It's small enough that that will wipe the place off the map, but it's also a key supply base for the German attack. Rendering it impassible will put a severe crimp in German operations.

That could be even more damaging to Germany than the obvious loss of a major supply depot.

TTL, Hitler and Co. are actually delusional enough to think they've achieved something great.

What you just described, a 1,000 plane raid that utterly and completely wipes a German city off the map would be a HUGE bitchslap of cold hard reality to the German high command.

They gassed American civs on U.S. soil, made this big breakthrough on the western front, etc...

And then the allied response is to bring a thousand plane raid to bear on a German city and wipe it completely off the map.

And they KNOW the WAllies can conduct raids like this until Germany either surrenders or ceases to exist.

Unless they've all completely gone insane by that point, (save Hitler, he's already too far gone, as evidenced by his decision that using gas in the field, let alone on an enemy's home soil) SOMEBODY is going to realize that they have made a terrible mistake and that the WAllies can do something the Soviets can't: Kill just about every German man, woman and child WITHOUT PUTTING A SINGLE BOOT ON GERMAN SOIL.

At that point, again, unless they are all utterly insane or delusional, there will be a successful Valkyrie ASAP...and the first guys to go will be the guys wearing the uniform of the SS, to make sure it succeeds this time.

It's either that, or watch their once thought to be 'Master Race' go extinct.

 

[sloreck]

Dora is simply not useful against Patton. Even with the new shells, launching one every 30-45 minutes won't spread much gas, and these agents disperse less and are less effective in this winter weather. While Dora could fire at a given crossroads, the Germans have no way to really direct this artillery - no aerial spotting and no practical way to communicate with their commandos (however many are left) for real time targeting. Furthermore moving this gun is a huge effort, and it has essentially no traverse so in order to reorient towards Patton you need to go through the same disassembly/reassembly steps, have trackage pointed in just the right direction (can't do this beforehand as the exact axis of attack not predictable so need to lay track), and move the gun. Then if your target shifts by even a few degrees left or right, whoops a redo. Thats why, OTL, in WWI and in WWII artillery like RR guns, Big Bertha, and Dora were only used against stationary targets like cities, fortresses, fixed trench line/positions etc. BTW the V3 "superguns" were totally fixed and would not be effective here.

If the Germans use gas tactically, then their troops will be in gear as well. Operating in a chemical environment affects both sides, and only really confers an advantage when one side is much (I mean much) better equipped and/or trained than the other - not the case here.

Gas has done its job here in rupturing the Allied lines, but its advantage for the Germans will quickly fade to nil. As has been pointed out the Allies have plenty of gas weapons, if not nerve gas which the Germans don't have much of, and they are much more capable of putting where it would do the most good - on German depots, RR yards, lines of communication etc especially since the German army is way more dependent on horses to move stuff who don't do well in chemical warfare. Gas bombs delivered by medium bombers (A-20, B-25, B-26 & British equivalents) will make life really miserable for the Germans and the Allies also have way more artillery.

Very very soon gas warfare will be a much bigger problem for the German military than the Allies, and that's not even counting the added misery gas bombs will provide for inhabitants of German cities. Just make sure the last 20-30% of the bombers on a raid have gas bombs...

IMHO gas warheads for the V2 are pretty ASB given the issues of sloshing etc and the verry limited control systems of a V2. The V1 is a much simpler problem, but OTL between air defenses and the XX system the British managed to have very few V1 impacts in damaging spots.

A final note. The industrial and intellectual effort that had gone in to these German efforts means something else somewhere is not getting done...what is it?

 

[PhilippeO]

will German use Dora against Montgomery in Antwerp ? destroying Port of Antwerp will deny Allied supplies. And the butterfly on the future history of Belgium will be fun . Belgium future politics will be entirely changed.

 

[Scientist Shan]

will German use Dora against Montgomery in Antwerp ? destroying Port of Antwerp will deny Allied supplies. And the butterfly on the future history of Belgium will be fun . Belgium future politics will be entirely changed.

Dora is a railway gun.

I imagine the Belgian railway network is somewhat damaged.

Dora actually would have very little practical use except in conditions of total air superiority.

 

[Michel Van]

will German use Dora against Montgomery in Antwerp ? destroying Port of Antwerp will deny Allied supplies. And the butterfly on the future history of Belgium will be fun . Belgium future politics will be entirely changed.

This gonna rip the kingdom apart !
during the war the Walloon were in resistance, While the Flemish were collaborator with Nazi
there King Leopold III consider by Most Belgium's as traitor for his surrender of Belgium and his personal talk with Hitler abut the terms.
in time of 1944 to 1950 Belgium was in turmoil and edge of Civil war because of this !

Now with second invasion Belgium of things get heat up,
the use of nerve gas in Walloon will left many civilian die horribly, while the Flemish will welcome the Wehrmacht with open arms.
allot of Walloons will think that this was plan of Leopold III* to take back Belgium.

This will end in Civil war and first major case of U.N. to deal with after the War


* He and family are for moment under House arrest by SS in The Third Reich.
he was know for his affection for fascism and had provoke two major scandals during WW2.
one: the widower secretly married his mistress who pregnant of him and she was a bourgeois and governess of his children ! ! !
Two: he left a political testament prior to deportation, were he consider the liberation by Allies as "just another occupation of Belgium"

 

[jlckansas]

Dora is a railway gun.

I imagine the Belgian railway network is somewhat damaged.

Dora actually would have very little practical use except in conditions of total air superiority.

Wiki on Dora:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schwerer_Gustav

Here is a picture of a model of Dora:

http://www.primeportal.net/models/thomas_voigt1/dora_gun/

Notice that it is on Two parallel tracks, it was assembled on site and was not meant to be moved far.

Peenemunde shell"

http://www.warhistory.ie/world-war-2/peenemunde-arrow-shells.htm


I don't know if a Pe3nemunde shell was made for Dora like the other RR guns like the K5, AKA Anzio Annie, and even used. The Germans did use a Peenemunde shell in firing upon Kent during the war. they figured out a minimum range of approx 70 miles.

 

[pdf27]

After some consideration I have decided to make certain that as many as possible of the fighters which will take part in this operation will be our Me-262s. We have seen that they can out fly most if not all that the Allies have to offer. As many as possible of this plane will be included when we begin the air offensive when the weather clears.”

Goering being off the drugs isn't helping him - air-to-air losses from Bodenplatte were minimal, but losses to AA guns were severe. That's going to make a big hole in their reserve of jets, while the allies are just going to lose aircraft on the ground they car replace from reserve stocks in the UK within a day or two.

Forget that lot. What's really needed is a 1,000 bomber raid on Bitburg. It's small enough that that will wipe the place off the map, but it's also a key supply base for the German attack. Rendering it impassible will put a severe crimp in German operations.

Since they fly by night, Bomber Command won't be affected by the weather - and Tedder is one of their Airships, so may well be thinking that way anyway. Chances of him already phoned up Harris and twisted his arm to lay on a raid for this coming night?

 

[Michel Van]

A final note. The industrial and intellectual effort that had gone in to these German efforts means something else somewhere is not getting done...what is it?

One victim is certainly the "Völksjäger" Heinkel He 162 at Mittlewerk GmBH
acording the SS had this major production site of He 162 to start up in end 1944
with Operation Troja victory preparation, the engineer needed on He 162, will work on V1 and V2 modification.
possible that also Junkers Flugzeug- und Motorenwerke AG workers, who made ready a production site in Mittlewerk GmBH, will be estranged for this.
another victim are the plans for advance V1 with Pilots or Porsche disposable Jet-enigne.
Also the advance V2 based on A6/A8 with Storable Fuel and pressure fed engine.
and IRBM project A9/A10.

 

[Tyr Anazasi]

Bodenplatte wasn't Galland's plan. His plan was to intercept the US bombers with 1.000+ fighters. His intention was to stop the US bombing runs on German cities. Here the US are like the bull seeing red. Patton is attacking and the USAAF will want to revenge Boston. That MIGHT become a problem. We'll see.

 

[Archibald]

The He-162 won't be missed. IT was a beast to fly.

a 1,000 bomber raid on Bitburg

The irony is that, OTL Bitburg was a major USAF base in Germany, where for forty years a handful of interceptors stood in alert against a possible Soviet surprise attack.

 

[Derek Pullem]

That could be even more damaging to Germany than the obvious loss of a major supply depot.

TTL, Hitler and Co. are actually delusional enough to think they've achieved something great.

What you just described, a 1,000 plane raid that utterly and completely wipes a German city off the map would be a HUGE bitchslap of cold hard reality to the German high command.

They gassed American civs on U.S. soil, made this big breakthrough on the western front, etc...

And then the allied response is to bring a thousand plane raid to bear on a German city and wipe it completely off the map.

And they KNOW the WAllies can conduct raids like this until Germany either surrenders or ceases to exist.

Unless they've all completely gone insane by that point, (save Hitler, he's already too far gone, as evidenced by his decision that using gas in the field, let alone on an enemy's home soil) SOMEBODY is going to realize that they have made a terrible mistake and that the WAllies can do something the Soviets can't: Kill just about every German man, woman and child WITHOUT PUTTING A SINGLE BOOT ON GERMAN SOIL.

At that point, again, unless they are all utterly insane or delusional, there will be a successful Valkyrie ASAP...and the first guys to go will be the guys wearing the uniform of the SS, to make sure it succeeds this time.

It's either that, or watch their once thought to be 'Master Race' go extinct.

The "thousand bomber" raids weren't working in the way you describe. Hamburg had been hit in 1943 and the Nazis just relocated and moved on leaving 40,000 dead. The Allies cannot kill every single woman and child - a "successful" thousand bomber raid ends up with 3% dead and roughly the same injured.

They did totally disrupt Hamburg for some time - but most Nazi war production was now dispersed from major cities and much of the remaining labour in the cities was slave or PoW

You only have to look at the Carthage Operation in Japan ITTL - the initial strikes were less effective than the fire-bombings (although the casualty rates seem to have risen considerably given the last figures mentioned).

 

[Pangur]

It has taken me some time to catch up with this thread. Well I guess the sh%t has well and truly hit the fan now that Germans have gone and used chemical weapons in both Europe and the US. One thing which has crossed my mind was the German POWs in the US. I would assume that they are in for a very rough time

 

[Starslayer_D]

I remember reading somewhere that germany had a proximity fuse under development 1940 but abandoned it as not needed for barbarossa. But can't remember where. But it was off a post in this board.

 

[Michel Van]

The He-162 won't be missed. IT was a beast to fly.

For those who not understand,
He-162 is a difficult to fly jet fighter, even for experienced Luftwaffe test pilots.
and they put adolescent from Hitler Youth on controls, after they made first flight experience with glider...

interesting variation of "to die for the Furhrer and fatherland"

 

[RPW@Cy]

Peenemunde shell"

http://www.warhistory.ie/world-war-2/peenemunde-arrow-shells.htm


I don't know if a Pe3nemunde shell was made for Dora like the other RR guns like the K5, AKA Anzio Annie, and even used. The Germans did use a Peenemunde shell in firing upon Kent during the war. they figured out a minimum range of approx 70 miles.

Almost certainly not. The Peenemunde shell required a smooth bore barrel and Dora was rifled.

The "thousand bomber" raids weren't working in the way you describe. Hamburg had been hit in 1943 and the Nazis just relocated and moved on leaving 40,000 dead. The Allies cannot kill every single woman and child - a "successful" thousand bomber raid ends up with 3% dead and roughly the same injured.

Actually, what I described was pretty much OTL - the allies (actually mainly the USAAF this time) hit Bitburg on the night of Christmas Eve for pretty much the reasons I suggested. The town had a population of 12,000 before the raid - there were 60 survivors.

 

[Garrison]

I suspect Dora will be a target for the fighter bombers; I know I've been saying that they'll be flying regardless but reading up on the OTL battle I get the impression that they literally could not get off the ground because of the weather That could mean there's no prospect of close air support until the 23rd. The Allies could start using the Strategic bombers to pummel targets to try and hit supply lines and concentration of German troops but it would be hit and miss.

 

[TeaDaemon]

Ok, just got caught up with this.

Those who think Montgomery is going to withdraw back to Antwerp when he's got all those Canadians already in the area to defend it are talking as though he's caught the stupid virus. Similarly, although he's famous for sitting tight until he can fight a set piece battle with overwhelming forces, that's not all he knew how to do. In 1940 he was in charge of the counterattack at Arras, which very nearly succeeded in cutting the supply lines for the German advance. He could certainly think on his feet if he had to, it's just that circumstances meant that in North Africa and Northern Europe he didn't need to.

Having said that, he's not going to do a Patton and instantly move onto the attack in an effort to cut off the German advance (apart from anything else, he'll want to make sure that he cuts off as much of the German forces as possible). My take on the situation is that he'll consolidate his lines, organise the Canadians and any other forces around Antwerp to defend the city if necessary, and begin planning for a counter attack to cut off the German forces once they've committed their reserves and are ready to be cut off and defeated in detail. At the moment his forces can be resupplied through Antwerp, but even if it falls and he ends up cut off, this in 1944, and the allies have a huge amount of amphibious shipping that can be used to resupply his forces (or evacuate them in good order if necessary) he's got the Scheldt estuary at his back, admittedly the northern bank is in German hands, but if passage is required for resupply or evacuation, then between the allied navies and air forces there won't be anything within range of the river that can get off more than a few shots before experiencing a large quantity of steel and high explosive descending from the heavens.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Actually, what I described was pretty much OTL - the allies (actually mainly the USAAF this time) hit Bitburg on the night of Christmas Eve for pretty much the reasons I suggested. The town had a population of 12,000 before the raid - there were 60 survivors.

Not true.

Two months after the raid only sixty people remained in the city (large town really). And this was after the town had been evacuated due to the damage and after the Americans entered the town after a three week campaign to eliminate the "Vianden" bulge which included Bitburg at its centre (which would also have displaced the inhabitants).

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-20/news/mn-21732_1_german-army

The big bomber raids were good at displacing people and industries - they weren't able to kill entire towns and cities.

 

[RPW@Cy]

Not true.

Two months after the raid only sixty people remained in the city (large town really). And this was after the town had been evacuated due to the damage and after the Americans entered the town after a three week campaign to eliminate the "Vianden" bulge which included Bitburg at its centre (which would also have displaced the inhabitants).

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-20/news/mn-21732_1_german-army

The big bomber raids were good at displacing people and industries - they weren't able to kill entire towns and cities.

"American bombers destroyed Bitburg in a Christmas Eve, 1944, raid so thorough that the town was described in subsequent German army dispatches as administratively dead. Bitburg's official history notes that when the U.S. forces occupied the town two months later, only 60 survivors remained amid the rubble."

The German army despatches would have been before the town was captured, of course.

 

[Derek Pullem]

"American bombers destroyed Bitburg in a Christmas Eve, 1944, raid so thorough that the town was described in subsequent German army dispatches as administratively dead. Bitburg's official history notes that when the U.S. forces occupied the town two months later, only 60 survivors remained amid the rubble."

The German army despatches would have been before the town was captured, of course.

"Administratively dead" = no functioning local government not 11940 casualties.

60 persons in the rubble of the town which was the target of a major offensive by American 3rd Army in February 1945 = lots of refugees not 11940 casualties.