How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

[Archibald]

Furthermore the Germans were warned about the B-29. They knew them and had made interceptors and missiles. Especially if Galland was victorious the delivery of the bomb may become more a problem. Perhaps the bomb will be delivered to Adolf in a completely different way. With return to sender...

The Luftwaffe will be as powerless as the Japanese against B-29 raids. I mean, they were already overwhelmed by waves of B-24s and B-17s. B-29 will have similar results with lower losses, since they fly higher and faster. I'm not even sure 88 mm guns can shoot high flying B-29s; only the 128 mm could, and there was not many of them. Same thing for interceptors; the bulk is still Bf-109s, and they will have very hard times chasing Superfortresses. Fw-190 may fare slightly better. Me-262 were never in numbers great enough to cause a serious threat.

Gosh, imagine if the B-29 force is added to the usual B-17s, B-24s, and all the tactical bombers, plus of course the British Lancasters and Halifaxes at night. Not in the same raid of course, since they are faster. Maybe on different targets, or at different period in the day.

Oh, and Wasserfall was a joke. A SAM without a valuable guidance system is not that useful...

 

[Derek Pullem]

Thanks to everyone who responded to my brief poll. Here is Montgomery's view of things. And yes, if you listen closely you'll hear the sound of laughing Germans. (see below)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: December 19, 1944
Location: Belgium [HQ of General Montgomery]
Time: 7:00 a.m. [Belgian Time]

General Bernard Law Montgomery was up early in his HQ looking at the deteriorating situation on his map.

The attack on December 16th had been bad enough tearing open a hole in the American lines. But the surprise chemical attacks of the 17th and 18th had been absolute murder, both figuratively and literally. The gap between Montgomery’s and Patton’s army’s was still gaping large and the Wehrmacht was pouring everything it had left through it. The 5th and 6th Panzer Divisions were now closing on Antwerp. If no one stopped them all estimates said they would be in the city within a week.

One of the issues Montgomery had thought might be in his favor was the fact that the Germans didn’t have enough fuel to power an offensive for overly long. But then at several key points the Germans had come across whole depots of fuel left behind by quickly disintegrating American units. The irony was that the Germans were heading toward Antwerp now being powered primarily by American diesel fuel! If the situation weren’t so serious Montgomery might have been laughing. He was certain the Germans were!

Then there was the news from Paris. General Eisenhower’s death had hit everyone on his staff hard, including him. Montgomery and Eisenhower were known to have had major differences, but all in all Montgomery had the highest respect for Eisenhower. He would be sorely missed. In the meantime there was no one to coordinate a defense. So, it was every man or commander for himself.

Now looking at the map of the situation Montgomery felt a creeping feeling of déjà vu. If the Germans reached Antwerp then Montgomery’s supplies would be cut off and the 21st Army Group would also be cut off just as the British had been in 1940. Only this time it was unlikely that there would be a second miracle of Dunkirk. The question was should he drive southward and try to link up with Patton whom, he hoped, would be counterattacking from the south? Or, should he pull back and try to stop the Panzers before they reached Antwerp?

There was no contact with Patton at all since the attacks had started. The fact was that communications on the front at this point were all but non-existent. German agents, dressed in American uniforms, had cut telephone lines and destroyed communications centers. Montgomery was operating in the blind until he got word either from Paris from whoever would replace Eisenhower or from Patton.

General Montgomery considered and then started issuing orders. The 21st army group would begin to withdraw and reorganize around Antwerp as necessary. If all went well Montgomery intended to stop the Germans at Antwerp and push them back. If it did not he intended to try and hold a corridor for his army group to retreat back into Northern France. One way or another there would be no repeat of June 1940.

Couple of points - Dunkirk did happen and that was against an enemy with air superiority over the beaches and with a collapsing ally to the South.

In this case the "collapsing ally" is played by most of the strength of the US Army in Europe with its blood up for vengance. No comparison.

Second point - I agree that Monty's natural inclination would be to try and stabilise the front and protect Antwerp. To be honest that is exactly what he should do. To plunge forward into a counter attack on the flanks of the bulge against probable saturation gas bombardment from emplaced German artillery with choke points already ranged and targetted is unlikely to deliver the coup that some posters think.

On the other hand delivering the anvil on which Patton's force will squash the Panzer Armies upon in front of Antwerp will eliminate the German mobile forces well away from their support and allow the West Wall defences to be selectively breached using massed bombing and gas attacks at a later stage.

 

[sharlin]

I'd also think that WAllied air power will be thrown at the germans regardless of the weather, the Germans still have got massively limited supplies despite what ever they captured, and they have no counter to WAllied airpower. Also with the deployment of gas weapons in the west you can probably bet that the soviets would be taking precautions now.

 

[FickleCrossroad]

On the other hand delivering the anvil on which Patton's force will squash the Panzer Armies upon in front of Antwerp will eliminate the German mobile forces well away from their support and allow the West Wall defences to be selectively breached using massed bombing and gas attacks at a later stage.

This.

Patton and Monty working in a team doing what suits each of them naturally may actually do more to win the war before May. There's too many well equipped troops on the continent at this point for a bigger German salient doing anything but enabling an unencumbered Patton from cutting off the Heer/SS forces, and rolling them up into a well-entrenched Monty. What exactly would Germany pull from the east to keep the Western Allies from making bigger gains once they bag the bulk of the remaining forces? Aren't we talking something along the lines of 10mi/day advance (average,) from mid-January '45 onward?

When the WA are fighting their way into Berlin, the Red Army will be on the Oder.

 

[sharlin]

The OTL Ardennes offensive was really a last gasp, it used most of the strategic reserves the Germans had as well as what remained of their most intact armoured formations. Even with this initial success there is a huge number of WAllied troops in the region and more can be re-deployed.

I assume there's only been one Carthage raid on Japan so we will probably see something similar on Europe. I don't think that the Anthrax cakes will be broken out, they would cause long term devastation rather than the 'quick' option of mustard gas or something.

 

[pdf27]

Second point - I agree that Monty's natural inclination would be to try and stabilise the front and protect Antwerp. To be honest that is exactly what he should do. To plunge forward into a counter attack on the flanks of the bulge against probable saturation gas bombardment from emplaced German artillery with choke points already ranged and targetted is unlikely to deliver the coup that some posters think.

On the other hand delivering the anvil on which Patton's force will squash the Panzer Armies upon in front of Antwerp will eliminate the German mobile forces well away from their support and allow the West Wall defences to be selectively breached using massed bombing and gas attacks at a later stage.

Thing is, he's already got some fairly major forces defending Antwerp - the majority of 1st Canadian Army has just finished clearing the Scheldt Estuary and now has minimal front (mostly river lines to the North - given the Germans have just committed all their reserves they won't be facing much!) to hold so will mostly be resting/refitting round Antwerp. Instead of using them to set up a stop-line, he's ordering the withdrawal of 2nd British Army to around Antwerp in case he needs to secure his lines of communication for a withdrawal to Northern France or the UK.

Now take a look at what the Germans are trying to do and tell me where Montgomery needs to be in order to act as an effective anvil for Patton:

He's got the US First and Ninth Armies on the Northern flank of the penetration, with 2nd British army north of that and then 1st Canadian army holding the river line North of Arnhem and resting/refitting after clearing the Scheldt estuary.
Montgomery has ordered 2nd British Army to withdraw towards Antwerp. That means all the other forces under his command have to too, and ensures that far from Patton having an anvil to hit the Germans against they're guaranteed a safe withdrawal route North - not to mention he's throwing away all the bridgeheads taken during Market Garden.

He's in a massively strong position, with the Germans doing their best to emulate Gaius Terentius Varro at Cannae - if he holds position, all he needs to do is keep his nerve and wait for the Americans to attack from the south. Even if they take Antwerp, the Germans will have pretty much their entire reserve force at the end of a narrow, 100 mile corridor with powerful enemy forces on both flanks. Unless the enemy commanders panic (which Montgomery appears to be doing and Patton appears not to be) it's a military disaster in the making.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Errrrrrr.......

Montgomery is cautious but he isn't going to contract the stupid virus.

He has more than enough troops in place to block the German advance and hold the ground he has. He has river lines preventing any significant German attack from the North and East.

I'd say that he'll try to block the German advance on a line just South of Brussels.......1815 anyone with Patton playing Blucher?

 

[Michel Van]

The OTL Ardennes offensive was really a last gasp, it used most of the strategic reserves the Germans had as well as what remained of their most intact armoured formations. Even with this initial success there is a huge number of WAllied troops in the region and more can be re-deployed.

I assume there's only been one Carthage raid on Japan so we will probably see something similar on Europe. I don't think that the Anthrax cakes will be broken out, they would cause long term devastation rather than the 'quick' option of mustard gas or something.

what a Irony
The Japanese Empire will surrender in 1945.
the Third Reich will survive only little bit longer, to get a Hell on earth by USA: The Atomic Bomb !

What for Germany i have to grow up, a waste land by anthrax, toxic tails of Chemical Weapon and nuclear Fallout...

 

[sharlin]

If Monty fights smart he'll do what he does best, a set peice battle from the defensive going on to a counter attack once the enemy's strength has been weakened by his defenses.

The more the Germans advance the more they will be exposed to WAllied air power which could result in a massacre on the scale of the Falaise pocket in the offering, if not bigger.

 

[Garrison]

Again have to bear in mind Monty is operating under a very heavy 'fog of war' ATM so he's having to plan for the worst case scenario. The advantage to pulling back towards Antwerp is it draws the Germans forward; using up those captured supplies and making it more difficult for them to disengage and escape. Also I note those orders to withdraw do say 'as necessary' so he may not draw the whole way back; especially as communications will likely be restored soon and he can co-ordinate his actions with Patton under Bradley's direction.

 

[teg]

Again have to bear in mind Monty is operating under a very heavy 'fog of war' ATM so he's having to plan for the worst case scenario. The advantage to pulling back towards Antwerp is it draws the Germans forward; using up those captured supplies and making it more difficult for them to disengage and escape. Also I note those orders to withdraw do say 'as necessary' so he may not draw the whole way back; especially as communications will likely be restored soon and he can co-ordinate his actions with Patton under Bradley's direction.

Also, I don't know about anyone else but that northern salient Montgomery is supposed to be holding looks awfully vulnerable. Pulling back to create a shorter front means those troops are less vulnerable to attack. Of course hindsight may show that they were never in danger in the first place but at the moment it is a foolish assumption to make.

Needless to say that when all this is over, barring a miracle, Germany is going to be a real mess. The Allies aren't going to go outright genocide or the Plan, but I suspect things could be as bad on the western front as they were in the east. That alone is going to slow the Allied advance somewhat as the Germans will resist more fanatically. It only takes about three more months of resistance before at least one German city gets an atom bomb dropped on it.

teg

 

[RPW@Cy]

Errrrrrr.......

Montgomery is cautious but he isn't going to contract the stupid virus.

He has more than enough troops in place to block the German advance and hold the ground he has. He has river lines preventing any significant German attack from the North and East.

I'd say that he'll try to block the German advance on a line just South of Brussels.......1815 anyone with Patton playing Blucher?

This. It's worth remembering what Monty did OTL - no panic, no desperate withdrawal to Antwerp, and certainly no nightmares of Dunkirk. He simply moved the 30th Corps to the Meuse and dug it in to await a frontal assault from the Germans. If by some miracle the Germans have moved fast enough to somehow beat him to Dinant - and reaching Bastogne on the the first day means they're already moving five times faster than OTL, anything more than that is ASB - then he'll simply deploy on the next river line back, which in this case is most likely the Sambre between Charleroi and Namur. Which is well south of Brussels, never mind Antwerp. There's no chance the Germans will beat him to that.

Sorry, but the idea that Monty's instinctive response to this attack will be to start planning the abandonment of Belgium is a gross misreading of the man.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

This. It's worth remembering what Monty did OTL - no panic, no desperate withdrawal to Antwerp, and certainly no nightmares of Dunkirk. He simply moved the 30th Corps to the Meuse and dug it in to await a frontal assault from the Germans. If by some miracle the Germans have moved fast enough to somehow beat him to Dinant - and reaching Bastogne on the the first day means they're already moving five times faster than OTL, anything more than that is ASB - then he'll simply deploy on the next river line back, which in this case is most likely the Sambre between Charleroi and Namur. Which is well south of Brussels, never mind Antwerp. There's no chance the Germans will beat him to that.

Sorry, but the idea that Monty's instinctive response to this attack will be to start planning the abandonment of Belgium is a gross misreading of the man.

as Bastogne fell on the *second* day (Dec 17) -- so only 2.5 times as fast as OTL. I think a line from Dinant to Huy should be doable. OTL the 82nd got to St Vith and the 101st to Bastogne on Dec 19. No reason they can't be at Dinant and Namur on the Meuse on the 18th, well before the Panzers. The Germans are moving faster because they wiped out the 99th, 106th and 28th divisions, where OTL, only the 106th disintegrated. In this TL the St. Vith "Fortified Goose Egg" (that oTL fell apart in 2 days, but held the crossroads of St. Vith for that long) and Bastogne aren't holding, so the Germans have their supply lines not under as much pressure, but that doesn't stop the remainder of the 1st and 3rd army from crushing this offensive between them, even if they have to wear gas masks. By New Years, at the very latest, this will be contained and start to be driven back.

What the Ardennes basicallky proved was the Americans had learned how to contain and destroy a blitzkreig breakout, unlike Kasserine.

here's a better map, showing the units around the bulge in OTL:

 

[NORGCO]

as Bastogne fell on the *second* day (Dec 17) -- so only 2.5 times as fast as OTL. I think a line from Dinant to Huy should be doable. OTL the 82nd got to St Vith and the 101st to Bastogne on Dec 19. No reason they can't be at Dinant and Namur on the Meuse on the 18th, well before the Panzers. The Germans are moving faster because they wiped out the 99th, 106th and 28th divisions, where OTL, only the 106th disintegrated. In this TL the St. Vith "Fortified Goose Egg" (that oTL fell apart in 2 days, but held the crossroads of St. Vith for that long) and Bastogne aren't holding, so the Germans have their supply lines not under as much pressure, but that doesn't stop the remainder of the 1st and 3rd army from crushing this offensive between them, even if they have to wear gas masks. By New Years, at the very latest, this will be contained and start to be driven back.

What the Ardennes basicallky proved was the Americans had learned how to contain and destroy a blitzkreig breakout, unlike Kasserine.

here's a better map, showing the units around the bulge in OTL:

Heresy?

Is containing the attack to the most limited area actually in the allies best interest? I know it is what they did OTL, but what about the idea that getting the execution victim to put his neck ALL the way out over the chopping block before dropping the axe is the best way?

That at least has always been my reading of Montgomery's idea to withdraw towards central France in OTL. Draw them out, stretch their supply lines to breaking point - supplying King Tigers with an 80% horse drawn wagon supply system! - then cut off the elite units in the lead and let air-power and artillery hammer them for a while.

With Patton driving up from the south into the German supply system making sure he only has Volks Grenadier divisions - grandfathers and boys too young to shave - in his way seems reasonable. Of course Monty does not know what Patton is doing, but suggested drawing the nazi's out before Patton was ordered north, didn't he?

Maybe not LET them over the Meuse, but the idea that fighting them further north away from their supply system and closer to his might look like the smart play. Or not necessarily anything to panic over anyway.

 

[Garrison]

Heresy?

Is containing the attack to the most limited area actually in the allies best interest? I know it is what they did OTL, but what about the idea that getting the execution victim to put his neck ALL the way out over the chopping block before dropping the axe is the best way?

That at least has always been my reading of Montgomery's idea to withdraw towards central France in OTL. Draw them out, stretch their supply lines to breaking point - supplying King Tigers with an 80% horse drawn wagon supply system! - then cut off the elite units in the lead and let air-power and artillery hammer them for a while.

With Patton driving up from the south into the German supply system making sure he only has Volks Grenadier divisions - grandfathers and boys too young to shave - in his way seems reasonable. Of course Monty does not know what Patton is doing, but suggested drawing the nazi's out before Patton was ordered north, didn't he?

Maybe not LET them over the Meuse, but the idea that fighting them further north away from their supply system and closer to his might look like the smart play. Or not necessarily anything to panic over anyway.

It does look as if the further they are drawn forward the easier it will be to cut them off and destroy them.

 

[Daffy Duck]

Excellent TL

Great job!

 

[katchen]

I think Linz, Hitler's hometown would be an appropriate place for the first atomic bomb attack. After all, the Austrians chose anschluss voluntarily. Chemnitz for the second. Vienna, if the Germans don't get the message and Vienna hasn't fallen to the Russians for the third.

 

[NORGCO]

I think Linz, Hitler's hometown would be an appropriate place for the first atomic bomb attack. After all, the Austrians chose anschluss voluntarily. Chemnitz for the second. Vienna, if the Germans don't get the message and Vienna hasn't fallen to the Russians for the third.

Ploesti first, if it is still a reasonable distance from the Red Army. Maximum effect from a limited resource. If they decide to use poison gas - nukes are not really a deliverable weapon at this time are they? - it still might be the smart move.

Oil and transport targets were the emphasis of bombing strategy at this point, as I understand it. There is no reason to change that, without oil the Heer goes straight back to a technical level not much above the Army of the Potomac circa 1865. The coal to oil conversion plants and whatever large hard to wreck the conventional way critical targets that can be reached.

 

[zoomar]

I'm with Garrison and the others.

In this TL, Monty does not have the benefit of the hidnsight we have. The situation is rapidly evolving. He must presume the worst about the Nazi offensive (greater numbers, greater capability, and possible additional "special" weapons, to deploy). Faced with tactical uncertainty and unable to coordinate effectively with either Paris or Patton, caution is by far the most reasonable response. Since he almost certainly does realize the German offensive is the last major push the Germans can mount given the overall war situation, the last thing he should do is go out on a willy-nilly counterattack aimed at restoring the combined US/British front - and possibly get more allied troops cut off or defeated. Withdraw, make sure Antwerp doesn't fall, let the Germans advance beyond their logistics, and then let airpower and the undeniable Allied superiority in numbers do the rest.

 

[zoomar]

I think Linz, Hitler's hometown would be an appropriate place for the first atomic bomb attack. After all, the Austrians chose anschluss voluntarily. Chemnitz for the second. Vienna, if the Germans don't get the message and Vienna hasn't fallen to the Russians for the third.

So we are absolutely certain nukes are in the future for German civilians in addition to gas?

If so, the Allies actually have an option that didn't exist in Japan, such as tactical use to destroy German troop concentrations and defenses in cooperation with ground offenses (remember, the long-term effects of radiation after the initial explosions were not fully understood).

However, assuming the targets are cities deep in Germany or Austria, the USAAF would have to use a different approach than they did against Japan. The use of virtually solitary high altitude B-29 "weather planes" to drop the bombs as at Hiroshima and Nagasaki would be far too risky. Even in 1945, USAAF bombers penetrating into Germany had to traverse more hostile airspace than they did in Japan. And German air defenses, while still not ideally suited to the extremely high altitudes B-29s could bomb from, were still much more capable than their Japanese counterparts.

All this tells me that the USAAF may well use massed B-17 and B-24 formations conducting conventional carpet bombing to mask one or two B-29s flighing at even higher altitudes to deliver the nukes.

Regarding targets, I really think Linz would be seen as a waste of effort and Vienna has no real association with the Nazi regime. If I was wanting to send a message, I'd choose either Munich (important for the Putsch in Nazi legend) or Nurnberg (Key site for Nazi rallies). A reasonable and safer option would be Hamburg (on coast and much less risk of the B-29s being lost). I also wonder if the US might not immediately drop the first bomb they had, but at least wait until Fat Man was also available to deliver a bigger message at once.