How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

[Michel Van]

If i get this right, is now General Patton the successor to Eisenhower

and with carnage in Bastogne, he will be not Alexander the Great, but be Attila the Hun towards the germans...
first objective is to ram with tanks true German lines from Luxembourg, over Belgium Town of Liege to Monty forces
and hustle the god dam krauts in north sea until last one is drowned...

For Belgium has Battle of Belgium, far reaching consequence on it's Future,
The Kingdom heavy divided between Walloon resistance and Flemish collaborator with Nazi.
it King Leopold III consider as Traitor, for his role in surrender Of Belgium and His direct talks with Hitler about fate of Belgium under Third reich.
For the moment is in The Third Reich under house arrest by the SS.

with SS Tabun gas attacks on Belgium there will push the land on edge of Civil war, between the ethnic groups of Walloon and Flemish.
it will rip this Kingdom in two

Long term consequence in Europe
French will push it's Super-V2 program at any cost. as deterrence against Germany (or what ever gonna exist after WW2)
Also will Great Britain start a Rocket program for this reason.
There will be no French-German friendship, instead the generation of De Gaulle, Mitterant and Thatcher will be hostile against Germans
with this Gas attack and discovery of SS concentration camps.
It will take several Generation ! until rest of Europe start to have normal interrelationship with those monster called Germans.

 

[Dan]

I think Saxony and Bavaria will have fairly good relations with the rest of Europe after the war, Schleswig Holstein will return to Denmark and Prussia, (seen as the source of both wars), will be scoured from the face of the earth.

 

[pdf27]

If i get this right, is now General Patton the successor to Eisenhower

Air Chief Marshall Tedder was his deputy, so would take over until an (American) replacement could be appointed. Patton probably wouldn't be it - he's too junior (Bradley et al being senior to him), and unable to be as emollient as required by coalition warfare.
Interestingly, Mongomery is likely to be even more insufferable ITTL and as Tedder wanted to give him the boot in OTL, he'll probably be replaced as soon as the battle is over. Realistically that probably means Dempsey takes over 21st Army Group, with Horrocks taking over 2nd Army. Which should improve Anglo-American relations no end...

and with carnage in Bastogne, he will be not Alexander the Great, but be Attila the Hun towards the germans...
first objective is to ram with tanks true German lines from Luxembourg, over Belgium Town of Liege to Monty forces
and hustle the god dam krauts in north sea until last one is drowned...

Two problems with that:
1) He doesn't have the fuel.
2) The far side of the pocket is occupied by XXX Corps, who probably don't want to let the Germans through.

French will push it's Super-V2 program at any cost. as deterrence against Germany (or what ever gonna exist after WW2)
Also will Great Britain start a Rocket program for this reason.

Actually, I doubt it - the most effective strike of the lot was by the German long-range bombers on the US. The UK was already pretty bomber-minded, so if anything any residual rocket effort will be diverted to the V-force.
France will clearly want something equivalent to the Force de Frappe quickly. However, the number of rocket scientists/technicians who escape war crimes trials is going to be a lot smaller and the prestige of bombers probably a little higher. This may lead to the SO.4000 actually entering service, or if Anglo-French relations are a little better than OTL a bigger Canberra buy or even licensed production of V-bombers?

 

[Michel Van]

Originally Posted by Michel Van
and with carnage in Bastogne, he will be not Alexander the Great, but be Attila the Hun towards the germans...
first objective is to ram with tanks true German lines from Luxembourg, over Belgium Town of Liege to Monty forces
and hustle the god dam krauts in north sea until last one is drowned...

Two problems with that:
1) He doesn't have the fuel.
2) The far side of the pocket is occupied by XXX Corps, who probably don't want to let the Germans through.

During The Battle of the Bulge, he had to suffice fuel for this.
It was later that FDR and Truman cut the fuel other wise, he had reach Berlin and start to fight the Commies...
I'm afraid the XXX Corps are victim of V1 Tabun attacks

Actually, I doubt it - the most effective strike of the lot was by the German long-range bombers on the US. The UK was already pretty bomber-minded, so if anything any residual rocket effort will be diverted to the V-force.
France will clearly want something equivalent to the Force de Frappe quickly. However, the number of rocket scientists/technicians who escape war crimes trials is going to be a lot smaller and the prestige of bombers probably a little higher. This may lead to the SO.4000 actually entering service, or if Anglo-French relations are a little better than OTL a bigger Canberra buy or even licensed production of V-bombers?

yes the Bomber, it take some time to start the Bomber fly hours to target and bomb it, While a Rocket do this in several minutes...
on Super-V2 it had to use storable fuel (the A6 or A8 version of A4b aka V2) what a major advantage.
in OTL the Super-V2 suffer problem on lack of guiding systems components on retrieved V2 parts.
but i think in This TL the French would start trade-off with British US, even USSR to get needed Parts in exchange for stuff they have found.
the first Super-V2 R1 to R2M would use Gas or radiological warhead, other advance models got Nuclear Warheads.

 

[Archibald]

The SO-4000 (despite looking good) was an utter disaster; it flew as well as a brick.
Now the (mostly unrelated) SO-4050 Vautour was formidable - asks the Israelis, who flew them all the way to Luxor on a single engine to save fuel !

Whatever, the afterwar is going to be ugly. but Geon - kudos to derailing the end of WWII as we knew it !
I tended to naively believe that late 1944 Germany and Japan were on their knees, so less a menace. Who could have believed that a handful of I-400 and Seirans could have derailed the end of WWII to this point ? as had been said before - "the gloves are off", with disastrous consequences.

As Michel said, the French-German reconciliation is probably dead in the water for decades. which makes Great Britain a de-facto partner, provided the industrial decline can be avoided.

WWII is definitively not my cup of tea. I'm just slowly realizing that Antwerp is the same as Anvers, and that "Anvers" is a crucial port to relieve the Allies logistic nighmare, that is, supplying fuel to Armies in Belgium only from france devastated Atlantic ports... hundreds of kilometer away. Hence German targeting of Anvers / antwerp by both V-1 attacks... and Watch the Rhine !

 

[WCDouglas]

Air Chief Marshall Tedder was his deputy, so would take over until an (American) replacement could be appointed. Patton probably wouldn't be it - he's too junior (Bradley et al being senior to him), and unable to be as emollient as required by coalition warfare.
Interestingly, Mongomery is likely to be even more insufferable ITTL and as Tedder wanted to give him the boot in OTL, he'll probably be replaced as soon as the battle is over.QUOTE]

I agree regarding Patton. Likely Tedder splits the commands as OTL. Patton also gets more support, as this is both a worst situation, and a bigger opportunity (I can see Tedder telling Bradley and Patton OTR, "Your on your own, Jerry's head, and whole bodies in the noose, don't expect help from the north, and don't let a single Jerry get home!").

Permant SACEUR, and other moves will be post battle. If Patton (and Bradley) end up being the heros (cut off/wipe out the Germans and meet Monty at the North edge of the budge, Bradley/Patton definitely gets to shape/lead the invasion of Germany).

No way after this Patton gets taken off the front lines (as well as the other reasons!). His being prepared for this (the attack, not the gas), and the disengage/turn/run to the north and counter attack will be far more recognized in TTL.

With FDR's condition, Wallace (with Truman's concurrance?) and decision is going to be hard, might send Marshall but they likely need Marshal in DC even more.

It's going to be hard to find someone with the right tools and senority at this stage. Maybe they leave Tedder (or a USAAF GEN, this going to a major air campaign before the invasion), and create Monty's "Ground Force Commander" giving it to Bradley or Devers, with Patton having OPCON/TACONand the planning of the invasion of Germany!

 

[joea64]

I'm afraid the XXX Corps are victim of V1 Tabun attacks

Not so. I just went back and reread Geon's relevant post. He specifically says that the Germans' chemical attacks were on the American portion of the Ardennes sector - remember, that sector, which had been considered to be a quiet one, was held by divisions that were either new or rebuilding, and thus was the weakest link in the Allied chain. It makes sense to use the nerve-gas and mustard stocks there to rip a hole in that weak area and demoralize the green American troops, therefore, and cut off the more experienced XXX Corps and other British forces in northern Belgium and Holland and force them to do another Dunkirk-style withdrawal or face pocketing and surrender. At least, that's the way Hitler wants it to go. Tedder and Patton, of course, have other ideas.

 

[pdf27]

During The Battle of the Bulge, he had to suffice fuel for this.
It was later that FDR and Truman cut the fuel other wise, he had reach Berlin and start to fight the Commies...

Supplies started coming through Antwerp on the 29th of November, two weeks before this attack. Everything else (and being the other side of the Ardennes, that includes Patton) was still being supplied by truck over the Normandy beaches. That consideration drove all allied strategy at the time, particularly Market Garden.

I'm afraid the XXX Corps are victim of V1 Tabun attacks

Unlikely - a total of 18 V-1s were launched at "the Ardennes", and only US troops were mentioned as being hit. A V-1 isn't actually a terribly good delivery method - it can only do a thin line for "several minutes" with fairly poor accuracy. I'm assuming that means ~5 minutes at 400 mph.
The other issue here is altitude - unless they're flying well below their normal altitude the gas will be too dilute to be effective. Lethal concentration in air appears to be 0.4g/m3 for 50% fatalities, and we can assume that any first generation delivery device will deliver it much more densely than that simply because they won't be as good at spreading it.
An air column 100m tall x 1m wide x 11,000m long is 1.1 million m^3. Assuming 5 x lethal dose is the target (optimistic), that gives 2.2 tonnes of Tabun. V-1 payload is 850kg, and may well be volume limited as well. Allowing for spray gear, 500 kg of Tabun is a good guess.
That means the affected air column will be 100m x 1m x 5,000m. Assuming it all drifts gently downwind onto US troops (unlikely - the prevailing wind is towards Germany and they're expecting to be hit with their own gas) that gives a 50% mortality area of 500 x 5000m per bomb. Assuming no V-1s are shot down/crash due to flying so low (very high probability - they're travelling on barometric rather than radar altitude) that gives 45,000,000 m^2 hit, or an area 7km x 7km. As the front line attacked over was ~60km, there won't be anything left over to hit either XXX Corps or Third Army with. Indeed, the overwhelming majority of the casualties will survive having got sub-lethal doses. As a weapon for disrupting weak formations troops who are about to be hit with overwhelming numbers it's pretty effective. Stronger formations not facing such an attack (XXX Corps, Third Army) will deal with it and crack on.

Second point on this - altitude is key. If they're travelling at their normal altitude of 2-3,000m, the payload will be diluted enough that you might see no fatalities at all. At low altitude (and the V-1 isn't sophisticated enough to do a Hi-Lo profile) the chances of hitting a tree or hill on the way in are very high. The Ardennes, of course, has some fairly major hills.

yes the Bomber, it take some time to start the Bomber fly hours to target and bomb it, While a Rocket do this in several minutes...

Provided the bomber gets through, this isn't actually a problem. Given bombers are quicker to re-target given the technology of the time and generally more accurate, the advantages in 1945-50 of rockets beyond the Katyusha level are pretty slim.

 

[pdf27]

I agree regarding Patton. Likely Tedder splits the commands as OTL. Patton also gets more support, as this is both a worst situation, and a bigger opportunity (I can see Tedder telling Bradley and Patton OTR, "Your on your own, Jerry's head, and whole bodies in the noose, don't expect help from the north, and don't let a single Jerry get home!").

Permant SACEUR, and other moves will be post battle. If Patton (and Bradley) end up being the heros (cut off/wipe out the Germans and meet Monty at the North edge of the budge, Bradley/Patton definitely gets to shape/lead the invasion of Germany).

No way after this Patton gets taken off the front lines (as well as the other reasons!). His being prepared for this (the attack, not the gas), and the disengage/turn/run to the north and counter attack will be far more recognized in TTL.

With FDR's condition, Wallace (with Truman's concurrance?) and decision is going to be hard, might send Marshall but they likely need Marshal in DC even more.

It's going to be hard to find someone with the right tools and senority at this stage. Maybe they leave Teddar (or a USAAF GEN, this going to a major air campaign before the invasion), and create Monty's "Ground Force Commander" giving it to Bradley or Devers, with Patton laving OPCON/TACON the planning nvasion of Germany!

Actually, if Tedder does act like that (and specifically ensures the US forces get the credit) and the succession back in Washington is a bit of a mess I could see him remaining in post temporarily for some time. I'd say he would have to appoint a ground forces commander, and that would almost certainly be Bradley.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

I do hope Geon won't pull up a For all times with a grossly incompetent president Wallace screwing up absolutely everything (although he wouldn't have much time in this TL)

Do Wallace and Truman love gumbo ?

How about For all times mixed with drew Fear, Loathing and Gumbo ? Both heavily screwing America ?

I always throught FRANCE was the most screwed country in For All Time

 

[WCDouglas]

Well, Stephen Ambrose will have to find different veterans for his book. R.I.P Winters, Guarnere, Malarky and all others.

Riveting, that's the word. And so well written.

Maybe not, the 101st didn't reach Bastogne until the 19-20 DEC (1st unit was 501st PIR). So the guys of the 506th won't be in Bastgone on the 17th, course they may run into the 5th's PANZERs in the open with little warning. Or the 101st may make a stand further back, maybe the Meuse bridges.

 

[joea64]

Maybe not, the 101st didn't reach Bastogne until the 19-20 DEC (1st unit was 501st PIR). So the guys of the 506th won't be in Bastgone on the 17th, course they may run into the 5th's PANZERs in the open with little warning. Or the 101st may make a stand further back, maybe the Meuse bridges.

I'd forgotten that the Screaming Eagles weren't on the battlefield at the outset, too. Given that Bastogne appears to already have fallen - it seems as if the Germans have TTL made most of their first- and/or second-day objectives - I think it more likely, as you say, that the 101st will be deployed to hold crucial chokepoints at the Meuse bridges.

As your summation above made clear, the real utility of chemical weapons in this circumstance, given the relative primitiveness of the delivery vehicles and the unfavorable nature of the weather, is to terrify the green American soldiers (e.g., the 99th and 106th divisions - the 106th division was smashed up and largely taken prisoner too OTL, in case anyone's forgotten), shake their morale, and cause them to retreat precipitiously. Actual casualties are likely to be lower than the initial reports for the reasons you gave, but coupled with the fact that Operation Greif is taking place simultaneously, the morale of many American units is going to be precarious, to say the least, for the next few days. I expect Patton's counterattacking force to get priority one for fuel and other supplies, so other forces south of the Ardennes will probably have to sit tight and wait unless they're going to be involved in the counterattacking effort. I think the key battles TTL might actually take place in the Brussels area or just east as the leading echelons of Fifth Panzer Army claw their way across the Meuse and run head-on into Patton's advancing Third Army columns.

 

[sloreck]

In 1944 there is no constitutional or legal arrangement for a president who is disabled but not dead. You are looking at about a month before Wallace is out of office, and Truman in. Fortunately there is really no way that Wallace can screw things up in the roughly 4 weeks he has left, there is really too much inertia to make any major changes, and I don't see him getting on the phone to Stalin and revealing all sorts of secrets in the name of "left" solidarity - even if he wanted to he was not in the loop for many things.

There is no "succession crisis". Roosevelt and Truman were legally elected, Wallace's term expires January 20 & he is out of office then, period. Although there is no constitutional/legal formula, the reality is the VP will take over while FDR is incapacitated and of course if/when FDR dies the VP will become president. Even if this is Wallace (ie FDR dies before January 20) Truman will be inaugurated January 20, and Wallace out.

Had Truman and FDR been killed in a successful attack on DC, then it would have been a bit of a scramble. Wallace legally would be president until January 20, but legally his term would end then with no provision to continue. On January 20 when Wallace was out, the presidency would devolve as per the constitution down the chain of succession. In 1944 this was in line with the law of 1886 and the Secretary of State would be first in line - thus Cordell Hull would take office January, 1945. Note this law was changed in 1947 OTL. Weird to have a non-elected individual be president, and this for a full term, but there was a well established law so no crisis.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

I think it is also important to note that these attacks on America - while shocking - change the economic and strategic equations not one bit - the Axis is doomed.

Less than 5,000 deaths - a pinprick - less than a pinprick - on the biggest economy in the world? OK, so Boston, NYC and Philly riot for a week - so what? The USN ships are built, the IJN is dead, the Luftwaffe is dead, the US Army is in Europe in force, Leyte Gulf was over months ago, the bomb is a few months from testing ... what this means is not Axis Victory, or even a more favorable peace, what this means is the gloves come off and Uncle Sam rolls up his sleeves. With no FDR (presuming the stroke kills him), two inexperienced POTUSs in a row (Wallace and then Truman), the US will wreak a horrible revenge ...

Mike Turcotte

 

[eltf177]

Wow, just...wow... What a mess!

Total panic on the east coast of the US, and with that no reinforcements against the Ardennes Offensive.

Ike's dead, who's going to get between Patton and Montgomery?

Will this get Ozawa and the other militarists thinking Japan has a shot at victory now?

All this and much more in Geon's next update!

 

[Geon]

Comments and Questions

Okay

First off, I thank all of you deeply and sincerely for the kind words on this story.

Secondly, as to the 101st airborne if it makes you guys feel better most of the "Band of Brothers," survive the war with quite a few more stories to tell their author!

Thirdly, I am now getting into the rarified atmosphere of military strategy and trying to read the minds of certain military leaders so I would like to ask the board a few questions here. The answers may influence future updates.

First off, Montgomery faces a situation similar to the threat the British faced in 1940. Whether he will or will not be cut off is still to be declared, however, given his present situation I would like the opinions of "Monty" experts here, without posting a poll here is the conundrum.

1. Does Montgomery drive southward and hope Antwerp will hold and try to meet up with Patton
2. Does he turn back westard and try to keep the Germans from taking Antwerp?

Which one sound more likely given what you know about him?

Geon

 

[zoomar]

Regarding a constitutional crisis in the US, I suspect this is unlikely (at least in wartime). Winning the War is the number-one priority for Democrats and Republicans. Nobody would use FDR's death during these attacks as an attempt to reverse or modify the results of the election. Vice President Wallace is a Democrat (albeit a very different sort than Truman), and FDR was a beloved wartime leader. To ensure stability in the transition of power, Wallace (the lamest of lame ducks) might immediately appoint Truman as his VP, and then resign. Truman would then be the President and the Electoral College would meet and decide that the Democratic ticket won the election, and that since the Presidential candidate was no longer alive, the duly elected VP is elected to the presidency in FDR's stead. Before or after his formal election, Truman would then name his own VP and the nation would go on from there. This would all be fodder for later political arguments about illegal appointments, unconstitutional acts, etc., and Truman's second term might be quite different or even non-existent. But in late 1944, during a major apparent reversal of allied fortunes, nobody would worry abot this.

Regarding how these attacks may or may not change what happens to Germany after WW2, I remain in the camp that believes that whatever allied response there is will be militarily proportionate, not deliberately genocidal. As I've noted several times before (other than the use of "banned" or otherwise "bad" weapons), the actual results of the attacks are fairly minimal (far fewer civilian casualties than one might expect and far, far less than what was already happening in Germany and Japan). Certainly the allies will now unleash all the weapons at their disposal against Germany, including nuclear weapons (presumably Hirohito's note will save Japan from the worst, but we still have to see what the militarists might do with the chemical weapons being sent their way by submarine - assuming they are still in a position to use them). German soldiers and civilians will suffer far worse than they did OTL, but only because the allies are realistically replying to an escalation of the war by the Nazis. No doubt many more German military and political leaders will be tried and convicted. Germany will be disarmed and be occupied, probably for a longer time than OTL, but it is probably premature to presume Germany will be permanently "Morgenthauized" as some presume.

The whole Soviet thing is interesting. Do the troop movements to the east mean that the Soviets will not push west to occupy swaths of eastern Europe and Germany. Will they be given a greater role in the occupation or peace agreements with Japan? Revenge-wise, I think it would be interesting if, in exchange for Soviet help to take out the Japanese militarists and other agreements to let the Wallies handle the occupation of places like Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, the Balkans,the western allies give the USSR a free hand to do whatever it wants to Germany and the Germans. That could be nasty and the UK, and US can wash their hands.

Who knows what new and wonderful twists Geon can come up with!

 

[teg]

Okay

First off, I thank all of you deeply and sincerely for the kind words on this story.

Secondly, as to the 101st airborne if it makes you guys feel better most of the "Band of Brothers," survive the war with quite a few more stories to tell their author!

Thirdly, I am now getting into the rarified atmosphere of military strategy and trying to read the minds of certain military leaders so I would like to ask the board a few questions here. The answers may influence future updates.

First off, Montgomery faces a situation similar to the threat the British faced in 1940. Whether he will or will not be cut off is still to be declared, however, given his present situation I would like the opinions of "Monty" experts here, without posting a poll here is the conundrum.

1. Does Montgomery drive southward and hope Antwerp will hold and try to meet up with Patton
2. Does he turn back westard and try to keep the Germans from taking Antwerp?

Which one sound more likely given what you know about him?

Geon

Hi Geon

Great timeline. Can't wait to see what happens next.

On Monty, I don't think he would be negligent enough to abandon Anterwerp, and a rush to cut the Germans off is not the set-piece battle he would like. Defending Anterwerp would be the set-piece to end all set-pieces in contrast. (British movie post war please) OTOH it is going to be necessary to move troops south just to prevent the Germans reaching the sea.

Assuming nothing goes wrong with Hirohito, Japan could well avoid the bomb, which would be a pleasant twist to this timeline. As well as a timely remainder that the Nazis were definitely nuttier than the Japanese.

Update please

teg

 

[Garrison]

Okay

First off, I thank all of you deeply and sincerely for the kind words on this story.

Secondly, as to the 101st airborne if it makes you guys feel better most of the "Band of Brothers," survive the war with quite a few more stories to tell their author!

Thirdly, I am now getting into the rarified atmosphere of military strategy and trying to read the minds of certain military leaders so I would like to ask the board a few questions here. The answers may influence future updates.

First off, Montgomery faces a situation similar to the threat the British faced in 1940. Whether he will or will not be cut off is still to be declared, however, given his present situation I would like the opinions of "Monty" experts here, without posting a poll here is the conundrum.

1. Does Montgomery drive southward and hope Antwerp will hold and try to meet up with Patton
2. Does he turn back westard and try to keep the Germans from taking Antwerp?

Which one sound more likely given what you know about him?

Geon

I think he would look to link up with Patton and then trap the German forces in Antwerp. Once the offensive breaks down those troops are lost to the Reich and this being the Western Front I doubt they will be willing to fight to the death rather than surrender.

 

[PMN1]

Whilst nasty, the actual death toll in Philadelphia makes me question the effort involved..of course, there is the psychological effect and a probable tightening up of checking ships coming in which will cause delays.