Actually, up to now, the casualty figures from Carthage at Osaka and Hiroshima seem no worse than regualar conventional raids, especially given the fact that the Japanese seemed somewhat prepared for gas attacks. One wonders what else those nefarious Americans have up their sleeves to actually "Carthagize" Japan...oher than nukes of course.
How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms
- Thread starter Geon
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Actually, up to now, the casualty figures from Carthage at Osaka and Hiroshima seem no worse than regualar conventional raids, especially given the fact that the Japanese seemed somewhat prepared for gas attacks. One wonders what else those nefarious Americans have up their sleeves to actually "Carthagize" Japan...oher than nukes of course.
I was referring to the 1/3 of the industrial plant destroyed figure. Plus I thought Hiroshima and Nagasaki OTL had been left relatively unmolested so they could be atomic targets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroshima#World_War_II_and_atomic_bombing_.281939.E2.80.931945.29
OTL Hiroshima was not on the receiving end of mega-firebombing.
It almost doesn't matter how many are killed, especially in the first raid. The point, I think, is that Militarist Japan now knows that the US is newly willing to use gas. It shows that the US no longer feels bound not to use every weapon it has. The leadership of Japan will understand this message.
Really, other than nukes, it is hard to kill more people in a bombing raid than what happened in OTL with the firestorms anyway.
An eerie thought is that the "silent" in the TL's title does not refer to the active destruction of Japan, but that it will simply be starved into submission.
Indeed. I agree with you, though, that the US government is not capricious. If the US receives an unconditional surrender offer, then they will take it, if only to stop putting US soldier's lives in jeopardy. The real danger, in my view, is that the Showa Emperor's "treachery" will be discovered, and the Militarists will try to appoint the boy Akihito and rule as regents. Things would really come to a head then...
Of course, Militarist Japan was starved into surrender in OTL. I've seen figures projecting more than 10 million deaths from starvation and malnutrition in the winter of 1945 if the war continues. Here, if the US is willing to us gas on isolated island outposts, they can be in a position to bomb and blockade Japan even sooner. I think I've brought this up before, but the most important part of the blockade in my view was not blocking the ships from Manchuria and Korea. It was bombing the railroads in Japan into ruin, and air-dropping mines into the canal network of the Home Islands. That made the cities starve almost immediately, because even the rice in the fields a few prefectures over couldn't be reliably brought to the industrial cities anymore.
I was comparing the casualty figures from Hiroshima and Osaka to OTL raids on German and Japanese cities that were firebombed. Causalty rates in the 10s of thousands without gas, which seems rather like unnecessary icing actually, but it does send a message, though
Geon
Donor
Washington and London
Ambassador Fernandez is going to be very tired by the end of this journey!
----------------------------
Date: November 24, 1944
Location: Washington, D.C. (OCD and the White House)
Time: 9:00 a.m. [EST]
By 9 a.m. of November 24th the preliminary results from Ft. Detrick had been sent by teletype to Washington. The technicians at Ft. Detrick had worked in record time. Twenty four hours after the Fu-Go balloon had arrived at Ft. Detrick they had the answer. The balloons carried feed corn contaminated with anthrax spores which was to be gradually released over a wide area by the timing mechanisms aboard the balloons. The question now was how to deal with this new threat?
Again there was disagreement. Many in the NATJAB group urged immediate quarantine of all ranches in the area including the destruction of all herds so infected. The counter argument from the other side was that doing so would destroy the livelihood of many of the ranchers in this area and cut down radically on the supply of meat from this area-as much as 25 percent of the nation’s beef supply came from Wyoming, Montana, and North and South Dakota all of which were on the current flow of the jet stream that had brought this balloon across. Quarantining all of the beef production here would mean practically no meat for the civilian population and a reduced amount for the armed forces. This was unacceptable.
After an hour of back and forth discussion once again the two sides reached a compromise. All cattle in the potentially infected states would be vaccinated against anthrax, if necessary pharmaceutical companies who produced the vaccine would be asked to increase their production. If cattle were found to be infected in one herd then the infected cattle would be isolated and destroyed. Agents from the Department of Agriculture would be sent en masse to the potentially target states to ensure the nation’s meat supply was not affected. In addition NATJAB would recommend that an air interceptor squadron be transferred from duty on the West Coast and temporarily rebased at Bismarck MAP to locate and shoot down any more of these balloon bombs. To avoid panic it was decided the press would not be asked not to publish any reports of this until it was certain the danger was passed.
On the score sheet there had not been any new red pins on the map of the U.S. for a while. In addition the numbers of new cases were continuing to decline. Both of these were good news. The members of NATJAB fervently hoped that the Japanese had no further surprises in store.
Cities/ Number of Casualties/ Deaths/ Special
Los Angeles/ 2,471/ 289
St. Louis/ 193/ 88
New York/ 155/ 60
Seattle/ 15/ 10/ contained
Portland/ 10/ 8/ contained
Youngstown/ 16/ 10/ contained
Detroit/ 54/ 27
San Bernadino/ 3/ 1/ contained
San Francisco/ 6/ 3/ contained
Chicago/ 2/ 1/ contained
Oakland/ 2/ 1/ contained
Atlanta/ 1/ 1/ contained
Total Infected: 2,928; Total Deaths: 499
Date: November 24, 1944
Location: London (The Foreign Ministry)
Time: 11:00 a.m. [London time]
Anthony Eden prepared to receive the Russian ambassador to London. At precisely 11 a.m. Ambassador Gusev Fyedor Tarasovich was ushered into his office. After several minutes of preliminary social chatter Eden requested why the Russian ambassador had asked to see him so urgently this morning.
Ambassador Tarasovich came quickly to the point. “Mr. Eden, several days ago the Portuguese ambassador contacted our government requesting our help in exiting Japan quickly. It seems that Mr. Luis Fernandez recently met with a high ranking member of the Japanese government and is now returning to Lisbon, Portugal with a message for the American Ambassador there. In fact, my sources tell me the message is of very high priority to the point where the message is to be delivered as soon as the Ambassador arrives at the Foreign Ministry in Lisbon. To come to the point quickly Mr. Eden my government would like to have a representative present when this message is delivered. We are concerned about a private exchange of messages between a potential enemy and the rest of our allies. I trust you understand.”
Anthony Eden was caught speechless for a moment. There had been nothing in any of the intelligence briefings about this. The Russians clearly had the advantage here for they knew a lot more then Eden did about this affair. Clearly he needed to speak with the American ambassador to Britain immediately and with the Prime Minister. “Mr. Tarasovich,” Eden began carefully, “I will tell you as truthfully and as frankly as I can that this is the first time I have heard of this message.” “Our sources are quite clear on the authenticity of this message, if not its contents,” said Tarasovich. “Yes, well, before I can make any agreements regarding this I will need to speak with the American and Portuguese ambassadors and the Prime Minister regarding this. I believe we can have some accommodation made regarding this.” “That is all we ask,” Tarasovich said genially. “We would hate for a few secrets to come between us and our western Allies.”
Eden inwardly groaned. He did not trust the Soviets but for now they were allies and could not be angered. This incident could be a sign to the increasingly paranoid Stalin that some separate deal was going to be worked out. Eden decided he would contact the Prime Minister, the American Ambassador, and the Portuguese ambassador immediately following this meeting.
There would be a flurry of diplomatic activity between the Russian, American, and Portuguese embassies over the next few hours. After much discussion it was decided to request that Ambassador Fernandez be flown to London on the first available plane once he landed in Lisbon. There the Ambassador could then open the briefcase in the presence of American, British, and Russian representatives.
Ambassador Fernandez is going to be very tired by the end of this journey!
----------------------------
Date: November 24, 1944
Location: Washington, D.C. (OCD and the White House)
Time: 9:00 a.m. [EST]
By 9 a.m. of November 24th the preliminary results from Ft. Detrick had been sent by teletype to Washington. The technicians at Ft. Detrick had worked in record time. Twenty four hours after the Fu-Go balloon had arrived at Ft. Detrick they had the answer. The balloons carried feed corn contaminated with anthrax spores which was to be gradually released over a wide area by the timing mechanisms aboard the balloons. The question now was how to deal with this new threat?
Again there was disagreement. Many in the NATJAB group urged immediate quarantine of all ranches in the area including the destruction of all herds so infected. The counter argument from the other side was that doing so would destroy the livelihood of many of the ranchers in this area and cut down radically on the supply of meat from this area-as much as 25 percent of the nation’s beef supply came from Wyoming, Montana, and North and South Dakota all of which were on the current flow of the jet stream that had brought this balloon across. Quarantining all of the beef production here would mean practically no meat for the civilian population and a reduced amount for the armed forces. This was unacceptable.
After an hour of back and forth discussion once again the two sides reached a compromise. All cattle in the potentially infected states would be vaccinated against anthrax, if necessary pharmaceutical companies who produced the vaccine would be asked to increase their production. If cattle were found to be infected in one herd then the infected cattle would be isolated and destroyed. Agents from the Department of Agriculture would be sent en masse to the potentially target states to ensure the nation’s meat supply was not affected. In addition NATJAB would recommend that an air interceptor squadron be transferred from duty on the West Coast and temporarily rebased at Bismarck MAP to locate and shoot down any more of these balloon bombs. To avoid panic it was decided the press would not be asked not to publish any reports of this until it was certain the danger was passed.
On the score sheet there had not been any new red pins on the map of the U.S. for a while. In addition the numbers of new cases were continuing to decline. Both of these were good news. The members of NATJAB fervently hoped that the Japanese had no further surprises in store.
Cities/ Number of Casualties/ Deaths/ Special
Los Angeles/ 2,471/ 289
St. Louis/ 193/ 88
New York/ 155/ 60
Seattle/ 15/ 10/ contained
Portland/ 10/ 8/ contained
Youngstown/ 16/ 10/ contained
Detroit/ 54/ 27
San Bernadino/ 3/ 1/ contained
San Francisco/ 6/ 3/ contained
Chicago/ 2/ 1/ contained
Oakland/ 2/ 1/ contained
Atlanta/ 1/ 1/ contained
Total Infected: 2,928; Total Deaths: 499
Date: November 24, 1944
Location: London (The Foreign Ministry)
Time: 11:00 a.m. [London time]
Anthony Eden prepared to receive the Russian ambassador to London. At precisely 11 a.m. Ambassador Gusev Fyedor Tarasovich was ushered into his office. After several minutes of preliminary social chatter Eden requested why the Russian ambassador had asked to see him so urgently this morning.
Ambassador Tarasovich came quickly to the point. “Mr. Eden, several days ago the Portuguese ambassador contacted our government requesting our help in exiting Japan quickly. It seems that Mr. Luis Fernandez recently met with a high ranking member of the Japanese government and is now returning to Lisbon, Portugal with a message for the American Ambassador there. In fact, my sources tell me the message is of very high priority to the point where the message is to be delivered as soon as the Ambassador arrives at the Foreign Ministry in Lisbon. To come to the point quickly Mr. Eden my government would like to have a representative present when this message is delivered. We are concerned about a private exchange of messages between a potential enemy and the rest of our allies. I trust you understand.”
Anthony Eden was caught speechless for a moment. There had been nothing in any of the intelligence briefings about this. The Russians clearly had the advantage here for they knew a lot more then Eden did about this affair. Clearly he needed to speak with the American ambassador to Britain immediately and with the Prime Minister. “Mr. Tarasovich,” Eden began carefully, “I will tell you as truthfully and as frankly as I can that this is the first time I have heard of this message.” “Our sources are quite clear on the authenticity of this message, if not its contents,” said Tarasovich. “Yes, well, before I can make any agreements regarding this I will need to speak with the American and Portuguese ambassadors and the Prime Minister regarding this. I believe we can have some accommodation made regarding this.” “That is all we ask,” Tarasovich said genially. “We would hate for a few secrets to come between us and our western Allies.”
Eden inwardly groaned. He did not trust the Soviets but for now they were allies and could not be angered. This incident could be a sign to the increasingly paranoid Stalin that some separate deal was going to be worked out. Eden decided he would contact the Prime Minister, the American Ambassador, and the Portuguese ambassador immediately following this meeting.
----------
There would be a flurry of diplomatic activity between the Russian, American, and Portuguese embassies over the next few hours. After much discussion it was decided to request that Ambassador Fernandez be flown to London on the first available plane once he landed in Lisbon. There the Ambassador could then open the briefcase in the presence of American, British, and Russian representatives.
Artatochor
Banned
The problem is, the peace feelers sent by Hirohito will have arrived too late. The US will simply ignore the contents of the briefcase, I think. The rage will be multiplied when the German attacks come. The only way Hirohito's plan would bear fruit, is if a third Japanese attack was in store, and the briefcase contains the necessary info to thwart it.Indeed. I agree with you, though, that the US government is not capricious. If the US receives an unconditional surrender offer, then they will take it, if only to stop putting US soldier's lives in jeopardy. The real danger, in my view, is that the Showa Emperor's "treachery" will be discovered, and the Militarists will try to appoint the boy Akihito and rule as regents. Things would really come to a head then...
Of course, Militarist Japan was starved into surrender in OTL. I've seen figures projecting more than 10 million deaths from starvation and malnutrition in the winter of 1945 if the war continues. Here, if the US is willing to us gas on isolated island outposts, they can be in a position to bomb and blockade Japan even sooner. I think I've brought this up before, but the most important part of the blockade in my view was not blocking the ships from Manchuria and Korea. It was bombing the railroads in Japan into ruin, and air-dropping mines into the canal network of the Home Islands. That made the cities starve almost immediately, because even the rice in the fields a few prefectures over couldn't be reliably brought to the industrial cities anymore.
That's not what I was expecting. A very smart move on the part of the Soviets, I think. Good writing, Geon!
I already said that I don't believe the briefcase can change the peace terms for Japan. But what I think they will change is the perception of the Emperor in the US. Even if public opinion is out for blood in the US, and his blood in particular, the US knows it needs people to work with in the nations it will occupy. People were very afraid of a third world war. The best way to prevent it, they thought, was by totally changing the government in Japan and Germany. Otherwise, once they recovered from the war, they might simply start a new war. So a long-term and thorough occupation is called for, and for that to work, the US needs local allies. It needs the obedience of the occupied people. It wants a relatively smooth transition. The Showa Emperor can help with all of that, and the letter can be used as "proof" of his good intentions. That's a big deal.
EDIT: BTW, I think the diplomatic package contains more than simply peace feelers. That would be seen as a cynical attempt to avoid responsibility for the attacks. No, the Emperor knows it would take more than that. I am betting the package contains something of use to the allies: information on the bio-attacks, maybe the location of the Unit 731 installation in Pingfang and/or the rat flea breeding program in Canton, etc.
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Unfortunately, you are probably correct. But a lot has been made about Hirohito as a potential "hero" of this story and his mysterious briefcase now on its way to England. One has to hope that its contents do include more than empty peace feelers and after-the-fact admissions of guilt. There has to be more. Having the three Allied powers open it together may be interesting. One presumes Hirohito presumed only American eyes would see it. Hmmmmm.
Artatochor
Banned
I think the US might not bother occupying the country. I'm predicting genocide. Especially if the German Trojan Victory attack+the gas-spiced Watch on the Rhine cause mass American casualties.
I'm just going to go on record here that I don't think the US government of 1945 would genocide Japan. You really think that if Japan agrees to unconditionally surrender, the US will just say "no" and continue blockading and bombing the Home Islands?
Artatochor
Banned
They will not trust the briefcase content. They may also think that the Emperor has no control over his military, even if he is sincere. That would make him useless. And I'm basing my opinion on Halsey's statement.
The "spoken only in hell" thing? I think that was just a bit of bravado. What's the point to the genocide? We aren't talking about Nazi Germany. Most Americans are racist against the Japanese and want revenge, fine. But they don't see the Japanese people are a threat in the same way the Nazis did the Jews. The US will accept the total surrender they demand. If they want revenge, they can make the peace as harsh as they want. No "reverse course", no supporting Japanese re-industrialization, even minimal civilian food aid I could see. But I can't see them going through the expense of bombing and shelling the islands, of putting US soldiers and sailor's lives at risk, just for the glee of killing a few more "japs". The government of the US did not base its decisions on revenge fantasies.
Oh, and it doesn't matter if the Emperor has control over the military or not. I'm talking about seeing him as useful post-war. By then the IJA will be long gone. What matters is if they think the Emperor can be useful in the occupation, not in any sort of peace process.
Artatochor
Banned
This was an important reason in deciding to use A-bombs, as opposed to an invasion. A more threatening Japan will mean more willingness to totally ruin it, alongside the above reason. Starvation could be the actual thing that completes the act of genocide. I don't see Americans as being above genocide. They set about doing it in Vietnam. Soviet/Chinese help and Vietnamese tenacity prevented the casualties from shooting sky-high. For Japan, there might not be any help from anyone.
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