How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

[Workable Goblin]

Look at the date. This is Nov 44 when this attack occurs.

I am aware of that.

Do you think that the US will wait for the development of nuclear weapons, which the vast majority of the government don't even know of the existence of the Manhattan Project and with the exception of a few scientist who 'may be confident' that the a bomb will work?

Yes and no. Yes, they will wait on the atomic bomb before using poison gas, because that's just a horrible, horrible weapon (and I'm not talking in the horrible effects sense, because of course that's true).

No, they won't wait before they do any retaliation, but that will be more likely to take the form of advancing low-altitude firebombing (actually started in February 1945), aerial mining of Japanese seaways (actually began March 1945), and possibly delivery of biological agents (not actually carried out) than deployment of gas. Chemical weapons just aren't very useful strategically, despite what inter-war writers thought.

 

[naraht]

Evocative Title...

While this is a very Evocative title, perhaps it give slightly too much away? My first thought on reading the title was some form of Unit 731 on the US or masses of US Soldiers.

Also, at this point does it really matter what Hitler/German Leadership does in response to this? I'm not sure that anything from Hitler supporting the attack to German declaring that the Axis no longer exists and declaring war on Japan makes *that* much difference...

Also, where there are areas where a Biological attack could be more easily contained than Japan (New Zealand for example), it is still *very* different than using the same techniques in Europe.

 

[Geon]

Next Posting

The three I-400s had submerged following the launch of their planes. Their orders were to remain in the area for two hours and if the planes did not return they were to submerge and set course for Tokyo. One hour after they submerged, the three subs were discovered by a destroyer squadron on submarine patrol out of San Francisco. A running 3 hour battle followed. The I-400s were formidable and made full use of their forward torpedo tubes. But the results were inevitable. By the end of the battle the I-400 and I-402 had been sunk, but they joined an American destroyer which had found itself on the receiving end of a torpedo attack from the I-401. The I-401 however would also not live to savor any sweet success. It was picked off by an ASW squadron a week later on its journey home. None of those participating in the attack lived to tell the story.

------------​

Date: November 5, 1944
Place: Tokyo, the Imperial Palace
Time: 6:00 p.m.

Two words could describe the feelings of Emperor Hirohito as he listened to the briefing that was given by Vice Admiral Jisaboro Ozawa as he detailed the start of a major secret operation against the Americans. Those two words were –complete shock! For several moments he stared at Admiral Ozawa (nicknamed the Gargoyle for his ugly appearance) with disbelieving eyes. Surely the navy could not be this insane? After several minutes he mastered himself and asked. “How soon before we will know if this plan of yours will bare fruit?” Oh, how he detested those last few words he uttered for he sensed the bitter fruit this would bring for Japan.

Ozawa shrugged and answered casually, “According to Dr. Ishi we should start getting the first reports within a week at the latest.”

The casualness of Ozawa’s words chilled the Emperor to the very bone. One week, and the Americans weren’t stupid. It wouldn’t take them long to figure out what had happened.

We will never be forgiven for this, thought the Emperor. Generations yet unborn will curse our memories because of what we have done today. A part of him asked how this is any different from what we did to the Chinese years ago. The rational part of his mind responded that it was not. This is war and in war there are no ethics or morality only expediency.

Abruptly he looked at Admiral Ozawa and said simply, “You may leave Admiral.” The Admiral bowed low before the Emperor turned and quickly walked out of the office. Hirohito quietly rose from his chair left the office and walked deeper into the Imperial Palace to a Shinto shrine. Kneeling before the shrine he prayed. May heaven and all our ancestors forgive us for what we have done this day, for the world never will.

 

[naraht]

Neither Ozawa nor Ishii

Will live to see 1950 ITTL, will they...

In OTL, Ozawa was never prosecuted because he was a purely military admiral and Ishii was never prosecuted because the Americans wanted his knowledge of bioweapons from the time he spent with Unit 731...

 

[stevep]

While this is a very Evocative title, perhaps it give slightly too much away? My first thought on reading the title was some form of Unit 731 on the US or masses of US Soldiers.

Also, at this point does it really matter what Hitler/German Leadership does in response to this? I'm not sure that anything from Hitler supporting the attack to German declaring that the Axis no longer exists and declaring war on Japan makes *that* much difference...

Also, where there are areas where a Biological attack could be more easily contained than Japan (New Zealand for example), it is still *very* different than using the same techniques in Europe.

naraht

I suspect that there will be a reluctance to apply retaliation to Germany as well for a multitude of reasons - racism, the fact the Germans might be able to retaliate and that the war in Europe looks nearly over. At least unless Hitler does something stupid - I know saying that seem very, very odd but in this I think he would have enough sanity left to maintain a ban on gas warfare. Or that if he did he might well be ignored/killed.

Steve

 

[stevep]

Yes and no. Yes, they will wait on the atomic bomb before using poison gas, because that's just a horrible, horrible weapon (and I'm not talking in the horrible effects sense, because of course that's true).

No, they won't wait before they do any retaliation, but that will be more likely to take the form of advancing low-altitude firebombing (actually started in February 1945), aerial mining of Japanese seaways (actually began March 1945), and possibly delivery of biological agents (not actually carried out) than deployment of gas. Chemical weapons just aren't very useful strategically, despite what inter-war writers thought.

truth is life

Would have to disagree. Think they would want to raise the ante in some way in response and chemical weapons are a possible way to do this fairly quickly and effectively. Along with possibly the even more deadly attacks on the rice crop as MerryPrankster suggests.

Steve

 

[MerryPrankster]

Just because TIL or even people at the time (like Einstein) thought gas was a horrible weapon doesn't mean that it won't be used. Heck, if huge numbers of people die of the Black Death in California, gas will be used because it's a horrible weapon and the U.S. is pissed off.

Of course, you're also talking "horrible" in terms of uselessness. Perhaps in a strategic sense, but tactically is a different matter. See my argument about gassing bunkers during the island-hopping. If heavier-than-air poison gases are employed as part of the shore bombardment, maybe the silence the first wave of soldiers found in Iwo Jima would have been real, not just the Japanese waiting to attack.

 

[Workable Goblin]

Of course, you're also talking "horrible" in terms of uselessness. Perhaps in a strategic sense, but tactically is a different matter. See my argument about gassing bunkers during the island-hopping. If heavier-than-air poison gases are employed as part of the shore bombardment, maybe the silence the first wave of soldiers found in Iwo Jima would have been real, not just the Japanese waiting to attack.

Oh, tactically is a different matter entirely, I agree. Against a prepared enemy chemical weapons still aren't very useful...they're relatively simple to counter...but they're useful, and Japan may not be very well prepared for tactical chemical warfare.

I mean, obviously they got use a lot during World War I, so...

 

[MerryPrankster]

Oh, tactically is a different matter entirely, I agree. Against a prepared enemy chemical weapons still aren't very useful...they're relatively simple to counter...but they're useful, and Japan may not be very well prepared for tactical chemical warfare.

I mean, obviously they got use a lot during World War I, so...

Does anyone know what kind of anti-chemical gear the Japanese soldiers had on their various island garrisons?

As you've said, it can be prepared against, so the first attack is probably going to be the most effective. Best not waste it.

 

[Unknown]

For any Japanese living in 1944-1945 ITTL, I would suggest one thing:

Pray. Hard.

 

[KillerT]

Well you've just removed the gloves and now Japan would surely reap the whirlwind of Operation Vegetation.....

 

[iddt3]

How effective would bioweapons be at this point? If there are just a couple a spheres then anthrax won't do much, and bubonic plague is already endemic among the local rodent populations.

 

[sharlin]

New targets for the first two bombs to be dropped. Tokyo and Osaka get rubbed off the map thats if the USA does not go berserk with gas and Bio weapons of their own first. And I doubt the attack will be that effective but the panic and casualties caused will harden the USA's hearts and probably have Le May, King and Twatarthur demand an eye for an eye.

 

[mcdo]

I have to say, I'm a little disturbed by the reaction to this thread. Wishing for more of the Militarists to face jail time is understandable, but the way some of you seem to be downright gleeful at the prospect of (more) mass civilian deaths in Japan...

 

[Pangur]

Why? Nukes are all-round better weapons than gas is, particularly for bomber delivery (which of course is how the US would deliver either). The biggest change might be that they go ahead and nuke Kyoto, and that US attitudes towards Japan after the war are harsher, leading to for example the removal of Hirohito and more thorough war crimes trials.

Because they have the gas and nukes are work in progress

 

[stevep]

I have to say, I'm a little disturbed by the reaction to this thread. Wishing for more of the Militarists to face jail time is understandable, but the way some of you seem to be downright gleeful at the prospect of (more) mass civilian deaths in Japan...

mcdo

Can't speak for others but for myself not gleeful. Just think its pretty certain. The US fire-bomb attacks were about the most devastating of the war anyway. They achieved the sort of effects Bomber Command achieved in Germany only occasionally.

Now the US will be totally enraged and want to go even further - presuming all our assumptions about the Japanese launching a bio-attack are accurate. [Hedging my bets because we don't know what the Japanese have actually done yet, although it seems the most likely given their capacity and the emperor's reaction on hearing the news.]

As such I can expect retaliation in kind in some ways. Not sure what bio-war capacity the US has at this point but it has an extensive chemical industry and the ability to massive expand production of chemical weapons quickly. Coupled with its willingness to launch carpet bombing attacks on cities even OTL I think this is going to be very, very bad for Japanese urban areas.

Steve

 

[Pangur]

I have to say, I'm a little disturbed by the reaction to this thread. Wishing for more of the Militarists to face jail time is understandable, but the way some of you seem to be downright gleeful at the prospect of (more) mass civilian deaths in Japan...

Totally wrong from my end. There is nothing to be gleeful about. If the working assumption that it was a bacterial weapon we have a lot of people who will die horrible deaths in LA. If the US hits back hard there will be a massacre in Japan --- what the hell is there to be happy about?

In my case don't confuse being gleeful with seeing what the reaction is going to be.

 

[Jinx999]

Tone of voice doesn't convey well by text.

I think you've mistaken an "holy sh1t - this is going to be hideous" tone for a "holy sh1t - this is going to be good" tone.

 

[Geon]

Complete Story/TL

This is not an update but rather I am taking this opportunity to take the bits and pieces I have offered and show them in their complete form. I will try to update again either tomorrow or Tuesday. Enjoy!

HOW SILENT FALL THE CHERRY BLOSSOMS​

An alternate history by Geon​

Date: November 5, 1944
Location: 40 miles due west of Los Angeles
Time: 6:05 p.m. PST

In the waning light of sunset three submarines, each bearing the insignia of the IJN surfaced in the rough waters off the coast of California. Within moments hatches opened and a small cadre of well-trained men emerged to begin preparations for one of the most audacious and deadly submarine operations of World War II.

Even a casual observer would have been stunned by the size of these three vessels. Each one was at least 400 feet long. There would not be a sub to equal them in sheer size until the coming of the so-called “boomer” nuclear missile submarines. Their engines gave them a range of 37,500 nautical miles which meant that they could easily circle the globe. And they were armed with 8 torpedo tubes. But their main claim to fame was the odd humpback shape just forward of their bridge. This “humpback” was an aircraft hanger. Each of these submarines, dubbed the I-400s was a submersible aircraft carrier capable of carrying 3 Seiran seaplanes. Each plane was capable of carrying either an 800 kilogram bomb or a torpedo. Today each aircraft had a single bomb slung on their undercarriage.

The bombs had been loaded in Tokyo by special technicians before the submarines had left on their mission. All of the technicians and mechanics who would ready the aircraft for flight had been warned not to touch them other then ensuring they were properly secured before the planes took off.

The crews worked quickly to prepare each plane for launch. They had drilled for weeks in Tokyo to the point where they could in less then 30 minutes have each plane fueled and ready on the catapult launch ramp located forward of the hangers to be launched. Time was of the essence. There was no telling how long it would be before the Americans’ coastal radar systems or patrolling destroyers detected them.

Within twenty five minutes all nine planes were ready for flight. Semaphores flashed between the submarines which were spaced approximately 3 miles apart alerting them to prepare for launch. Ordinarily staying this close in enemy waters was suicide but for the attack plan to work all nine planes had to be launched as quickly as possible. On each sub three pilots emerged and rendered final salutes to the officers on deck and to the air crews as they boarded their planes. Each one wore the traditional hachimaki head scarf and had taken a ceremonial toast of sake before beginning this flight. Although officially the captains of the various subs would remain on station to recover the planes if possible for the next two hours in reality it was known by one and all that all nine pilots were starting their final fights. None of them expected to return and had prepared accordingly.

At 6:35 p.m. the nine planes began their take offs from the catapults of the three subs. By 6:50 all nine planes were airborne and bound for their target: Los Angeles.

Location: Los Angeles
Time: 7:25 p.m.

The coastal defense radar picked up the planes 25 miles out. However, there was considerable confusion on whether or not to sound an alert or not. The army air force was still smarting from the debacle known as The Battle of Los Angeles.

On the night of February 24-25, 1942 a false alarm had set off an air raid alert. Interceptor squadrons were readied but never launched and antiaircraft artillery had fired at seeming “enemy planes”, over the city. No planes were ever proven to have flown over that night even though the army insisted for months thereafter that enemy planes had been seen. Nevertheless the false alert had cost 8 lives (5 from antiaircraft fire and 3 from heart attacks during the raid). The army did not want a repeat of that debacle and demanded proof before it ordered an alert.

That proof came as coastal spotters and other civil defense spotters in town heard the sound of engines overhead and 2 separate reports confirmed what appeared to be the silhouettes of enemy planes.

Within minutes air raid sirens sounded throughout the city. Antiaircraft batteries began to open up as searchlights scanned the sky and found at least three of the nine planes that were now flying directly over Los Angeles. This time it was not a false alarm.

As interceptors scrambled to shoot down the planes the pilots looked down on a city that was not fully blacked out. Ensuring total blackouts in major American cities had been the bane of civil defense since the start of the war and with the threat of air attack seemingly diminished over the years many cities had gotten careless in their blackout procedures, including Los Angeles.

As searchlights lit up the night the pilots knew they had reached their targets. They had been told to release their bombs once they were over Los Angeles and then immediately turn around and return to their launch point if possible. As air interceptor planes scrambled the nine planes dropped nine unusual bombs over the city.

The nine bombs plummeted toward the ground below impacting without any sound except that of a loud shattering sound. People near the impact sites later would compare the sound to several plates shattering. This was not surprising as the bombs were made of porcelain and designed to shatter upon impact. Little actual physical damage was done. (One bomb fell through a garage roof and ended up smashing the 1938 Ford that was parked inside.) The true damage would come later.

Meantime the interceptors of the IV Interceptor division had caught up with the retreating Seiran sea planes. The battle that followed was one-sided and resulted in the loss of all 9 of the planes. None would return to their submarine carriers.

That did not matter their primary goal had been accomplished and the payload delivered on target.

------------​

The three I-400s had submerged following the launch of their planes. Their orders were to remain in the area for two hours and if the planes did not return they were to submerge and set course for Tokyo. One hour after they submerged, the three subs were discovered by a destroyer squadron on submarine patrol out of San Francisco. A running 3 hour battle followed. The I-400s were formidable and made full use of their forward torpedo tubes. But the results were inevitable. By the end of the battle the I-400 and I-402 had been sunk, but they joined an American destroyer which had found itself on the receiving end of a torpedo attack from the I-401. The I-401 however would also not live to savor any sweet success. It was picked off by an ASW squadron a week later on its journey home. None of those participating in the attack lived to tell the story.

------------​

Date: November 5, 1944
Place: Tokyo, the Imperial Palace
Time: 6:00 p.m.

Two words could describe the feelings of Emperor Hirohito as he listened to the briefing that was given by Vice Admiral Jisaboro Ozawa as he detailed the start of a major secret operation against the Americans. Those two words were –complete shock! For several moments he stared at Admiral Ozawa (nicknamed the Gargoyle for his ugly appearance) with disbelieving eyes. Surely the navy could not be this insane? After several minutes he mastered himself and asked. “How soon before we will know if this plan of yours will bare fruit?” Oh, how he detested those last few words he uttered for he sensed the bitter fruit this would bring for Japan.

Ozawa shrugged and answered casually, “According to Dr. Ishi we should start getting the first reports within a week at the latest.”

The casualness of Ozawa’s words chilled the Emperor to the very bone. One week, and the Americans weren’t stupid. It wouldn’t take them long to figure out what had happened.

We will never be forgiven for this, thought the Emperor. Generations yet unborn will curse our memories because of what we have done today. A part of him asked how this is any different from what we did to the Chinese years ago. The rational part of his mind responded that it was not. This is war and in war there are no ethics or morality only expediency.

Abruptly he looked at Admiral Ozawa and said simply, “You may leave Admiral.” The Admiral bowed low before the Emperor turned and quickly walked out of the office. Hirohito quietly rose from his chair left the office and walked deeper into the Imperial Palace to a Shinto shrine. Kneeling before the shrine he prayed. May heaven and all our ancestors forgive us for what we have done this day, for the world never will.

 

[Michel Van]

Why? Nukes are all-round better weapons than gas is, particularly for bomber delivery (which of course is how the US would deliver either). The biggest change might be that they go ahead and nuke Kyoto, and that US attitudes towards Japan after the war are harsher, leading to for example the removal of Hirohito and more thorough war crimes trials.

This here is not Pearl Harbor, but a Biological Attack on US City with 1.5 million inhabitant
Without treatment, the bubonic plague kills about two thirds of infected humans within 4 days. (most medicine supply are now needed for War use)
in this case it would kill around 1 million people (under the assumption that suffice amount of penicillin arrive only after 7 day to L.A.)

it could be worst if contaminated people leave L.A. spreading bubonic plague in USA, then the death number rise very high
In Capitol Hill there will angry and demand horrible retribution.
the US bioweapon program has start in the spring of 1943 and was not ready also the Manhattan program was working on Prototype.
so the USA begin retaliation with bombardment of Japans cities with Gas in 24 december 1944 (Christmas Day Raids)
the Manhattan program got pressure form Pentagon "to speed Things Up" Oppenheimer abandon the implosion-type in favor of the gun-type fission design.
March 1945, while the USAAF drop the first bubonic plague bombs on Japan, Trinity nuclear test happens the Thin Man detonate.
during May 1945 The USAAF dropped 7 atomic bombs on Japan cities, ignoring the pleading and begging of Japanese government for a ceasefire...