How Silent Fall the Cherry Blossoms

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I'll take a general stab at this and say (re-reading the pertinent sections of this TL) that U.S. casualties would be OTL plus about 10%. This is taking in consideration that the casualties saved by butterflying the endgame of the Pacific War will happen in Europe instead primarily because of the use of Taubin and Sarin, the larger "Battle of Belgium", German units who choose to fight to the death and to a lesser extent, the Phoenix Cells.

I think I'm wanking the CW casualties a bit to give an extra 10% but it is hard to exactly know how effective the Allied protective measures would be in that time and place. Re. fanatical resistance (which realistically would be a course of action by a minority of German units in the West): the allies would simply subject holdout areas to a more thorough and prolonged bombardment with impunity---they have time on their side, after all. Pockets can be bypassed for later disposal.

I see the attrition exacted by Phoenix cell activity to have more nuisance than effective value and in its most vigorous years might have exacted a few thousand casualties a year spread out amongst the Allied powers. It is the civilian casualties that are going to be far higher than OTL due to no protection against CW agents and being the victims of blowback from Phoenix Cell activity or by being used as human shields by fanatical units. Horrifically so.

Even this reduced U.S. casualty figure (including an extra 40K KIA and over 60K wounded over OTL) would be horrific and the social effects stemming from this would really be no less than what you have already expressed.

Agree. I'd say an extra 10% US military casualties over OTL WWII, maximum. Believe Geon is spot on re US civilian casualties.
 
I have doubts to the civil rights movement being able to gain that much ground so quickly, but I am optimistically hopeful that it could be plausible.
 

Madoc

Banned
Geon & all,

I've really been enjoying this alt and the detail you've put into it.

The only major issue I have with it is Stalin's redirecting his efforts to the East.

The rationale for that really does not add up. Europe was "where the action was" - not Asia. It was through Europe that Russia was threatened time and again. Europe was also industrialized and had far more wealth for the plundering than Asia - save but for the few factories in Manchuko and around China's coastal cities.

Europe was also European and thus something the Soviets could relate to. This, as opposed to the "inscrutable Asians" and their "decadent ways."

All that being said, I can't see Stalin diverting even a single Red Army trooper to the East until it is the Hammer & Sickle waving proudly over Berlin and with Hitler's head on a platter laid out before him in the Kremlin.

In OTL the Soviets didn't do anything to reduce their strength in the West until the war was officially over. There was nothing really for them to gain by doing otherwise. In this ATL it seems that the Soviets gained even less by their efforts - not only in the West but also in the East. That doesn't make much sense to me.

By early 1945 Stalin held almost all the cards. The Red Army was the largest and most capable one on Earth. He had the Germans on the run. And the Western Allies were so terrified of having to invade Japan that they were offering almost anything Stalin's heart desired to get him to join in on that kill. Even then, Stalin wouldn't budge until he'd made sure he got all he could get in Europe.

I can see the plot utility in having the Soviets come in earlier in order to tie it in to the Pacific War ending earlier - but I can't see the rationale holding up to what we know of Stalin or of the political imperatives which were then in operation.

Also, as far as a raid on 731, that would most likely cost as many lives as it might save. Better, I think, to simply obliterate the place entirely. No, not as dramatically satisfying and, yes, a tad cold to the prisoners there who had yet to be experimented upon. But on balance, it would cost fewer Allied lives that way.
 
How, if at all, does this Patriot Act effect the Civil Rights movement? Seems it could be used for (KKK becomes illegal?) and against it.
 

katchen

Banned
I don't know ScrewySqrl. That is the most honest answer I can give. I will say I could see your example coming up in a very contentious Supreme Court case. I would have to say that given that the civil war occurred before the law was passed it's likely the court would rule that the law could not be used retroactively. What do the rest of you think?

Geon
I think that in 1946, the Civil War is still within living memory of a few. So yes, it could.
 

Geon

Donor
1952 U.S. Presidential Election

I am not a political scientist and do not have the knowledge some others have on this board who have produced many excellent political TLs here. If anyone would like to hazard a guess as to what the final results were here in terms of what states carried, etc., please be my guest:).

Geon
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The 1952 Presidential Elections:
The presidential election of 1952 was to be characterized by a number of surprises. First Harry Truman, whom had been president for two terms, now chose not to seek a third term (the 22nd amendment was now in effect but did not apply to the current president). Instead Truman chose to sit back and sit out the remainder of his second term. He would anger many among the Democratic Party by endorsing none of the candidates that ran. After Adlai Stevenson became the Democratic nominee for President, Truman would campaign for him but many political historians note that Truman’s efforts were lackluster at best.

On the Republican side, Robert Taft handily won the nomination on the first ballot. The problem for the Republicans was to find a suitable vice-presidential candidate. Taft was clearly a non-interventionist, almost an isolationist in his foreign views so it was decided that Taft’s running mate needed to be more of an interventionist and tougher on communism. The choice for vice-president was Richard M. Nixon whom had distinguished himself – or some would say gained notoriety – on the House Un-American Activities Committee. Nixon was tough on communism and very outspoken of the need for America to show strength abroad. It was felt he would be an ideal partner for Taft.

The 1952 presidential campaign focused on the issues of civil liberties, the economy of course, and national defense. The Democratic Platform argued for a smaller defense budget and reduced armed forces now that the Korean War was dying down, and the United States now being the only power in the world to have the nuclear bomb. On the subject of civil liberties, even though the Patriot Act had been passed under a Democratic presidency Stevenson had not been in favor of it fearful that it would squelch political discourse. He was very concerned with attempts by Republicans, especially in light of the recent HUAC meetings and with the strong leadership of Joseph “Tail gunner Joe” McCarthy lobbying to have the Communist party fall under the leadership of the Patriot Act as well as the KKK. (Many northern Republicans felt that since the Confederacy had declared itself an independent state of the Union during the Civil War the KKK should fall under this banner) However, many civil libertarians were concerned that the Patriot Act could easily be used to squelch what they called “legitimate political discourse.” Stevenson agreed and promised to “reconsider and if necessary repeal the Patriot Act,” if elected.

On the Republican side of the fence, Robert Taft campaigned for maintaining the military at its present levels, he felt that a strong military would ensure the U.S. would be left alone in the international arena and would ensure that U.S. allies would have their integrity respected. On the issue of civil liberties Taft made it clear that he supported the Patriot Act but urged that it be “very carefully interpreted in light of the Constitution.”

One of the telling incidents that would come back to haunt Stevenson on election night was his famous “St. Louis Gaffe.” During a campaign stop in St. Louis on the 4th of July Stevenson, spoke of how fortunate Americans were to have survived the worst ravages of war with “only a few deaths here at home.” He would later try to revise and correct that statement, but many in St. Louis, one of the cities hardest hit by the secondary effects of Japanese bio-warfare agents in Los Angeles with the third largest number of infected and dead to the disease would not forget and this it would be argued was one of the reasons for Stevenson’s defeat in November.
 
The Democratic Platform argued for a smaller defense budget and reduced armed forces now that the Korean War was dying down, and the United States now being the only power in the world to have the nuclear bomb.

I'm surprised at this since iOTL, the Soviets tested their first nuke in 1949 and Truman announced that fact before the end of the year. I don't see anything iTTL that would make the Soviets fall significantly behind.

Also, the UK iOTL tested their first nuke in October of 1952, but I could easily see butterflies delaying that until after the US election.
 
I'm surprised at this since iOTL, the Soviets tested their first nuke in 1949 and Truman announced that fact before the end of the year. I don't see anything iTTL that would make the Soviets fall significantly behind.

Also, the UK iOTL tested their first nuke in October of 1952, but I could easily see butterflies delaying that until after the US election.

in OTL Stalin push the Soviet Atomic bomb program, after USA drop nukes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in august 1945

This happen not in this time line, in fact the Prototype were not even ready on end of WW2 at June 12, 1945!
Stalin had very deathly encounter with Marshall Zhukov on October 24, 1945
in process Vyacheslav Molotov became General Secretary and Premier of the Soviet Union in 1946...
 
End of Belgian Section

The story of Belgium during WW2 was a very complicated one and while things could have ended up far worse than they did OTL. I think that a full blown civil war between the Walloons and the Flemings in the middle of a world war is just overstretching things a wee bit.

Michel Van said:
Why France was so eager to keep the Walloon and Luxembourg ?
the Industrial areas and Coal mine of Walloon, fit perfect with Pas de Calais de Nord Industrial area in France
while Luxembourg Industrial areas fit into Lorraine Industrial area with Coal mine of Saar (OTL Saarland)
making France to dominant Industrial nation in Coal and Steel in continental Europe and over Germany!
also the Belgium colony of Congo (with it source of raw material and it Industrial area) get under France control.
DeGaulle use this for a political bargain to become powerful president of the four Republic.

You have a very simplistic view of French politics and French history for want of a better way to say things. Real life political developments are not a giant version of EUIII where the objective is to gain as much territory as possible.
If De Gaulle was so obsessed about building a "Greater France" then why on earth did he do everything he possibly could to have France leaving Algeria with its oil and gas deposits?

De Gaulle was not all powerful right after the war OTL for various reasons, a big one being that he hated conventional mass politics and lacked a strong party to back him up until 1947. Why does he suddenly behaves differently TTL? and why are the communists and socialists moderates weaker than OTL?

Why has Italy, Tyrol ?
France had not sufficed manpower to occupy for the "wasteful" South area, so they cut that zone, gave Lichtenstein a part and rest to Italy
in exchange for some correction and fixation on French/Italian border.

Do you realise that OTL, Italy was close to having to surrender the Bozen area back to Austria in 1948? Why on Earth then do the Allies allow Italy to gobble up fully Austrian Innsbruck. Austria was considered to be Germany's first victim OTL don't forget that!

how Elio DeRupo become 2012 for the Socialist, the first Walloon President of France
also the First homosexual President of France, while Jean-Marie Le pen dies of a seizure on this news...

Elio won't be born TTL because of the butterfly effect. Le Pen may have died during the war or after TTL as a French conscript killed by a Walloon militant.
 
I think the use of the Patriot Act here is very clever and adds another dimension to the fear and paranoia of the "Red Scare". I think it could also completely stifle the efforts of future activists like Martin Luther King Jr and Malcom X, if they were even to achieve any notoriety ITTL.
 

Geon

Donor
The Taft Presidency

Here is the first part of a long section dealing with U.S. history from 1952 through 1970. This section focuses on the Taft Presidency.

Geon
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The Years of Fear and Good Feeling:
The years from 1952-1972 would be called the “years of fear and good feeling,” by many historians. These twenty years would mark some of the most prosperous years for the United States but paradoxically would also mark a time of great concern for what some saw as the rising power of the Soviet Union particularly in the Mideast. More worrisome was the fact that in February, 1952 the Soviet Union successfully detonated its first nuclear weapon. Now the U.S. had to deal with an unfriendly expansionist power with nuclear weapons.

The detonation of the first Soviet nuclear weapon caused President Taft to rethink some of his isolationist policies. Taft had been against maintaining U.S. membership in the developing NATO alliance. Now he started actively supporting U.S. involvement though insisted that France and England must bear a larger share of the burden as the two major military powers in Europe. Taft also developed better relations with the Federation of Scandinavia. This close alliance between NATO and the FS was a major reason that the Soviet Union never seriously considered an invasion of Western Europe.

In the Middle East U.S. foreign policy was geared to shoring up support and building alliances with the Middle Eastern nations, most notably the Persian Gulf states and Saudi Arabia. This meant of necessity becoming less accommodating to the young nation of Israel. Although Israel had much support among many Jewish political groups in the U.S. and among conservative evangelical Protestants it lacked one thing that the other Gulf nations had, oil. Oil was the lifeblood for the western economies and the Soviet moves into the Near East, most notably Iran, threatened to cut off the vital oil supplies to the western democracies. Israel would receive some military help from the U.S., Britain and France but nowhere near enough to allow it to fend off any attacks by its neighbors. In 1956 when Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal there was a clear threat to Israel. Britain and France considered and then abandoned a plan to form a secret partnership with Israel in order to retake the Canal fearing that such an action would alienate the Gulf nations upon which they were more and more dependent for oil.

However, the U.S. made a secret agreement with Israel guaranteeing her borders and promising to come to her aid with military force if necessary if any foreign power interfered with her right to exist. The one caveat of this deal was that Israel had to abide by the partition agreements set by the United Nations for Palestine in 1948. Israel reluctantly agreed. The Taft-Israel Agreement gave the U.S. a secret ace in the hole if Russia decided to expand beyond Iran.

Domestically the U.S. found itself dealing with the “Red Scare” as the HUAC continued well into the late 1950’s to expose what it called “communist involvement” in both the U.S. government and the U.S. media. In 1956 a Soviet spy ring in New York State was discovered to be funneling U.S. military and government information to Moscow and was being aided by the American Communist Party. President Taft agreed to extend the Patriot Act to include members of that party. By this time however many of those in Hollywood such as Chaplin* and others who had been card-carrying members of the party had publically disavowed the ACP. The roundup of people from the ACP was small, with an emphasis on those in the New York area. Of 253 that were initially arrested only 26 would actually be tried and convicted under the Patriot Act. Taft as per his campaign promises insisted on a very narrow and careful interpretation of the law.

In 1958 President Taft signed a controversial pardon for the German rocket scientists presently being held under “house arrest” at the Vandenberg Air Force Base. The pardon allowed the scientists freedom of movement around the country. There were several demonstrations in several major U.S. cities (notably Philadelphia) regarding this decision led most especially by loved ones of those who had been victims of the A4-B missiles developed by Werner Von Braun during the war. Many felt he and the other scientists should be treated as the other Nazi war criminals had been-namely hung! A fear of being lynched kept several of the scientists, most notably Von Braun incognito.

President Taft however, had signed the pardon to gain more willing cooperation from the scientists as word had reached him that the Soviets were working on putting a satellite into Earth orbit. Any rocket capable of lifting a satellite into orbit would also be capable of hitting a target in the continental U.S. The President decided that granting a pardon to the German rocket scientists was a small price to pay for getting this technology first. In 1959 the U.S. became the first nation to put a satellite into orbit with the launching of Vanguard 1. Shortly after the launch President Taft would express his “certainty that the U.S. would land a man on the Moon by the end of the 1960’s”. Taft didn’t realize his prophecy was off by a few years. The U.S. would indeed land a man on the Moon by 1971.

* Chaplin had become disenchanted with Communism after a visit to the Soviet Union in 1950. He noted later in his biography, “Seeing the difference in the way the people of the Soviet Union lived and the way people lived in the United States made me acutely aware of the differences between what was preached by Communism and what was practiced.” Chaplin would become more moderate in his political leanings as a result of the trip and later in his life would produce a film about his disenchantment with Communism entitled A Comrade in Moscow.
 
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In 1956 when Egypt nationalized the Suez Canal there was a clear threat to Israel. Britain and France considered and then abandoned a plan to form a secret partnership with Israel in order to retake the Canal fearing that such an action would alienate the Gulf nations upon which they were more and more dependent for oil.

The UK avoided the Suez Crisis, good! :D
 
Interesting. So what was the catalyst for making the British and French realize the Suez plan was as bad as it sounded? Seems like Israel's national resolve would only be further steeled by a worse Holocaust and Hitler disappearing.
 
The UK avoided the Suez Crisis, good! :D

Not really, a so blatant move by Nasser is a slap in the face so great for both nation that they can go quietly to the United Nations and declare to the world that they are now two bit power easily put down by the tin pot dictator of the day (France expecially, she has not be humiliated in Vietnam so she is in a stronger position).
In a moment when the US support in Europe is not a given and Russia being aggressive, show this kind of weakness in the world stage is a big political no no.

Second, Israel at the time was on the UK/France zone of influence and this kind of secret pact will not be worthy that kind of concession, pubblic maybe, secret? Why they must give the american this kind of trust?
 

Geon

Donor
Wallace and the Sassy Sixties

Here is the Kennedy Presidency and another villain redeemed:)!
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The Presidential Campaign: 1960
In 1960 the political lines were drawn between two old friends from the U.S. Senate as Democrat John F. Kennedy faced off against Republican Richard M. Nixon. Kennedy was by far the more likable of the two candidates. Where Nixon was pugnacious and seemingly mean-spirited Kennedy was charming and charismatic. It was clear from the moment the presidential campaign began in earnest that this would be a knock-down drag out fight between the two former colleagues.

One of the surprises of the 1960 election year was Kennedy’s choice for his vice-presidential running mate, a lawyer and later a judge who earned the nickname “the fightin’ judge”, named George Wallace. George Wallace was a World War II veteran who had flown several B-29 missions over Japan including three of the infamous Carthage raids. Wallace was among those who bombed Tokyo in the Second Tokyo Fire Raid that ended the lives of General Tojo and the rest of the war cabinet. He was a decorated war hero, like John F. Kennedy who also had been decorated for his actions saving the crew of his torpedo boat, PT-109.

Back in Alabama it was clear that participating in the Carthage raids had greatly affected Wallace. The man experienced a “spiritual transformation” in 1949 when as a lawyer in Alabama he defended a black couple who were part of a move to desegregate a “whites only,” hotel. The couple had been arrested for simply coming on the property. Wallace was able to get the charges against them dismissed. Over the years his since of fairness and “color blindness” first in his law practice, then as a judge, and later as a member of the Alabama legislature earned him the praise of many of his progressive Democratic partners and the hatred of many of his fellow conservatives.

Wallace’s fearlessness appealed to Kennedy. He had unsuccessfully run for Alabama governor a few years ago in a race that had captivated the nation. Wallace had typical southern values but did not share the desire by many in the South of keeping the racial status quo by segregation statues and Jim Crow laws preventing minorities from voting. Kennedy was impressed. In addition Wallace’s conservative streak might just win over many of the more conservative Democrats in the South.

After a hard-fought campaign Kennedy was elected with 309 of the Electoral votes.*

The Kennedy Years as they were called are considered by many to have been the apex of the Years of Fear and Good Feeling. While the U.S. had to deal with a growing Soviet threat in the Middle East and threatening moves in Europe it also enjoyed a level of prosperity it had not known for many decades. Some even termed the 60’s the “Sassy Sixties”.

Kennedy began to work with civil rights leaders from the South such as Martin Luther King, Jr. for the cause of human rights. Wallace often visited the South and participated with many of the marches held by civil rights leaders there particularly in his home state of Alabama. Doing so often meant that these marches were far more peaceful then many expected, after all, who in their right mind would want to risk national censure for arresting or attacking the Vice-President. Wallace found the Vice-Presidential seat to be in his words, “a damn fine soap-box.”

Kennedy also encouraged the growth of the space-program. Though at first only a lukewarm supporter of the program because of fear that the Soviets would get ahead of the Americans, Kennedy would become a more and more enthusiastic supporter over the years. He attended the launchings of two of the Mercury astronauts into space at Cape Canaveral during his presidency and made certain NASA had all the support it would need. He even requested that then-popular animators William Hanna and Joseph Barbera develop cartoons to interest children more and more in science and technology.*

There was never a question of whether or not Kennedy was going to run for a second term. So it was quite a shock to the American people when on November 20, 1963 the President addressed the nation from the Oval Office with some shocking and sad news.

My fellow Americans, it is my sad duty to come before you tonight to tell you that I will not be seeking a second term as your president. I know that this announcement will be a disappointment to many of you. I hope you will understand my reasons for making this decision.

First, I have been battling a number of health issues over the last several years that have required greater and greater attention on my part. These issues have now reached the point where I believe they may seriously jeopardize my effectiveness as your president, were I to seek a second term.

Secondly, I and my dear wife Jacqueline have been dealing for a number of years with several issues of a personal nature that have caused stresses to our relationship with each other. First and foremost my family must come first. Accordingly I have decided that I cannot deal with these issues and be an effective president in a second term.

I want to say that I have been honored to serve as your President these last three years and I pledge that I will give this office all of my energies for the year remaining to my term insofar as my health will allow me to do so. More and more however I shall be relying on the strong right arm of my friend and your Vice-President, George Wallace, to help me in this time. It should be no surprise that I will be endorsing George Wallace’s candidacy for this office should he choose to run… (From Kennedy’s speech to the nation on November 20, 1963)

It would come as no surprise that Kennedy’s popularity for his candor and honesty shot up by several points following his speech. There were many cynics who saw Kennedy’s speech as an attempt to bail from the office gracefully before a number of personal scandals derailed his presidency but for the most part people were moved by the willingness of the man to admit his vulnerability.

Kennedy had hoped to run again in 1972 when his health and family problems were dealt with, but his health would continue to deteriorate so that by 1971 he was to all intents and purposes an invalid. JFK would finally pass away in his sleep on April 9, 1978. He would be greatly mourned by the nation especially by those who grew up during his presidency. Many to this day term it the Camelot Presidency after one of Kennedy’s favorite Broadway musicals.

* In our timeline Kennedy won with 303, however here Kennedy also carried Wallace’s home state of Alabama.

* One of the most remembered examples of this was Huck and Yogi’s Race to Space a cartoon made in 1963 and starring many of the favorite Hanna-Barbera characters of the time in an expedition throughout the Solar System. The 60 minute cartoon feature was shown in theaters and won the hearts of many. It’s insistence on keeping the science and technology parts of the cartoon as accurate as possible won praise from educators, in fact later many scientists and engineers in the field of aerospace would credit this cartoon with piquing their interest in science.
 

Geon

Donor
Surprised

I'm surprised-no comments on the truncated Kennedy presidency or the reformed George Wallace?

Geon
 
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